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RW e e t ea ki ll y M Sa ur pk pe ot r Mt o an ni dt o r
R e s i s t a n c e
W a t c h
TOP BUY
REVIEW: The FSSTI enjoyed a 2.3% mom rise in November to 3,350.5. The strong
performance was underpinned by banks, which rose 4-7% mom after registering solid
3Q14 results. The most notable development in November was OPECs decision to not
cut supply despite the 39% fall in Brent crude oil price from its ytd high. Unsurprisingly,
this led to a sharp sell-off in oil-related sectors, such as shipyard (-5% mom) and oil
services (-13% mom).
STRATEGY: We have just issued our 1H15 strategy, with a 2015 year-end target of
3,600. Given the limited upside, we think stock-picking remains key to outperforming.
Corporate earnings are expected to grow 9% yoy in 2015, underpinned by banks, telcos
and plantations. Nevertheless, we think investors will remain cautious in view of
disappointing 2014 earnings. In addition, external challenges such as weaker growth in
China and the EU as well as an impending rate hike next year could dampen sentiment.
FSSTIs FY15F PE of 14.1x is at a 12% discount to its long-term mean of 16.1x.
Investment themes to consider include: a) winners and losers of rising interests rates, b)
solid oversold stocks, c) AEC/ASEAN Open Skies beneficiaries, and d) regulatory
changes. Our key picks in the big-cap space include CapitaLand, CCT, ComfortDelGro,
DBS, Keppel Land, OCBC, SingTel, First Resources and Sembcorp Industries. In the
mid-cap space, we like Pacific Radiance, Riverstone, Silverlake and Raffles Medical. Our
SELLs include SIA Engineering and IHH.
Sector
FSSTI
Finance
Nov/Oct
(% chg)
2.3
5.8
Recommendation
Top Buys
Overweight
DBS, OCBC
Telecoms
2.9
Overweight
SingTel,M1
Property
2.5
Overweight
REITs
2.1
Market Weight
Keppel Land,
CapitaLand, Wing Tai
CCT, Suntec REIT, CD
REIT
Others
Supply Chain
LandTransport
Media
Healthcare
Technology
Shipping
Aviation
Plantation
2.1
2.1
1.6
0.2
0.2
(0.9)
(1.8)
(3.2)
(3.3)
Market Weight
Overweight
Market Weight
Market Weight
Overweight
Overweight
Under Weight
Market Weight
Shipyard
OilServices
(5.1)
(12.5)
Market Weight
Overweight
ComfortDelGro
Raffles Medical
Venture
NOL
Top Sell: SIA Engrg
First Resources,
Bumitama
SCI
Triyards, Pacific
Radiance, Ezion
Company
Pacific Radiance
Triyards
Ezion
Wing Tai
FirstRes
Target
Price
(S$)
1.57
Last
Price
(S$)
0.855
Return
(%)
83.6
1.13
2
2.4975
2.8
0.65
1.33
1.72
1.94
73.8
50.9
45.2
44.3
Target
Price
(S$)
3.54
Last
Price
(S$)
4.11
Return
(%)
(13.9)
0.195
1.6
0.56
0.98
0.31
1.905
0.605
0.965
(37.2)
(16.0)
(7.4)
1.6
TOP SELL
Company
SIA Engg
Tigerair
IHH
COSCO Corp
Sabana REIT
Analyst's Views
All three Singapore banks reported good results with double-digit growth in net interest
income and fee income, as well as strong contribution from net trading income. DBSs core
earnings crossed the S$1b mark for the second time this year while OCBC recorded maiden
contribution from OCBC Wing Hang.
We expect increasing data usage and tiered data plans to sustain growth in Singapores
mobile revenue.
We expect property prices to undergo a healthy 10-15% correction from the peak and prefer
deep value and diversified developers.
We like stocks that provide relative earnings resilience as well as earnings growth.
w w w . u t r a d e . c o m . s g
S I N G A P O R E
RW e e t ea ki ll y M Sa ur pk pe ot r Mt o an ni dt o r
R e s i s t a n c e
W a t c h
Rec
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
Target
Price
(S$)
0.8
1.35
1
1.66
1.4
8.25
Price
30 Nov 14
(S$)
0.685
1.175
0.88
1.505
1.275
7.66
Upside
(%)
16.8
14.9
13.6
10.3
9.8
7.7
Monthly
Performance
% Chg
1.5
0.4
(0.6)
2.0
2.8
(0.9)
2013
(x)
28.8
15.6
20.5
15.3
26.3
16.1
PE
Monthly
Performance
% Chg
(12.3)
(3.9)
(6.7)
(7.3)
(3.3)
(3.8)
2013
(x)
7.8
2.5
10.3
49.4
n.a.
9.7
Monthly
Performance
% Chg
(19.7)
(2.3)
(4.8)
10.0
(1.0)
(0.5)
2013
(x)
6.9
4.5
36.3
45.5
15.5
13.2
2014F
(x)
26.8
15.3
19.8
15.4
20.6
15.3
Yield
2014F
(%)
7.8
7.3
7.0
6.7
6.6
6.5
2014F
(x)
7.7
5.3
14.3
6.7
43.5
6.6
Yield
2014F
(%)
0.0
3.5
2.1
2.8
2.0
4.0
2014F
(x)
6.2
5.7
30.3
77.5
14.7
15.0
Yield
2014F
(%)
2.4
1.5
3.5
0.8
3.1
2.7
Rec
Ezion
Wing Tai
FirstRes
GuocoLand
OUE
Nam Cheong
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
Target
Price
(S$)
2
2.4975
2.8
2.48
2.8
0.5
Price
30 Nov 14
(S$)
1.33
1.72
1.94
1.765
2.04
0.38
Upside
(%)
50.9
45.2
44.3
40.5
37.3
31.6
PE
Rec
Pacific Radiance
Triyards
Silverlake Axis
Hi-P
Riverstone
Boustead Sp
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
Target
Price
(S$)
1.57
1.13
1.7
0.85
1.09
2.06
Price
30 Nov 14
(S$)
0.855
0.65
1.295
0.715
0.955
1.83
Upside
(%)
83.6
73.8
31.3
18.9
14.1
12.6
PE
* To learn more about specific recommendations, talk to your trading representative today.
w w w . u t r a d e . c o m . s g
S I N G A P O R E
RW e e t ea ki ll y M Sa ur pk pe ot r Mt o an ni dt o r
R e s i s t a n c e
W a t c h
Price
30 Nov 14
(S$)
Upside
(%)
Monthly
Performance
% Chg
HOLD
SELL
HOLD
HOLD
SELL
10.5
3.54
2.94
3.63
0.195
10.78
4.11
2.93
3.37
0.31
(2.6)
(13.9)
0.3
7.7
(37.2)
FINANCE
ARA
DBS
BUY
BUY
1.94
22.68
1.73
19.83
OCBC
BUY
12.1
S'pore Exchange @
UOB@
Sector
NR
NR
SELL
BUY
Company
AVIATION
SIA
SIA Engg
SATS
ST Engrg
Tigerair
Sector
HEALTHCARE
IHH
Raffles Medical
Rec
2013
(x)
2014F
(x)
Yield
2014F
(%)
8.9
(13.7)
(5.5)
(10.1)
(1.6)
35.2
17.2
18.2
18.0
n.a.
27.2
29.6
23.7
19.0
18.6
n.a.
29.8
1.2
3.6
4.4
4.2
0.0
2.9
12.1
14.4
1.2
7.3
19.7
13.2
17.5
12.3
2.9
2.9
10.48
15.5
6.0
13.8
11.5
3.4
n.a.
n.a.
7.32
24
n.a.
n.a.
4.6
4.3
23.3
13.0
14.1
24.4
12.4
12.6
3.8
3.1
3.2
1.6
4.3
1.905
3.87
(16.0)
11.1
0.0
1.8
61.7
25.1
53.6
30.9
0.4
1.4
52.9
49.3
0.5
Sector
LAND
TRANSPORT
ComfortDelGro
PE
BUY
3.02
2.6
16.2
(1.5)
20.9
19.6
2.8
HOLD
1.56
1.63
(4.3)
9.4
40.1
24.7
26.4
21.4
3.0
2.8
HOLD
4.3
4.29
0.2
0.2
16.1
16.1
17.2
17.2
4.9
4.9
OIL SERVICES
Ezion
BUY
1.33
50.9
(12.3)
7.8
7.7
0.0
Ezra
Marco Polo @
Mencast @
Nam Cheong
Pacific Radiance
HOLD
NR
NR
BUY
BUY
0.94
n.a.
n.a.
0.5
1.57
0.665
0.3
0.43
0.38
0.855
41.4
n.a.
n.a.
31.6
83.6
(18.4)
(9.1)
(9.1)
(3.8)
(19.7)
9.7
4.6
7.9
9.7
6.9
11.4
10.1
7.9
6.6
6.2
0.0
0.0
3.7
4.0
2.4
Swiber
Triyards
SELL
BUY
0.52
1.13
0.315
0.65
65.1
73.8
(20.3)
(2.3)
2.5
4.5
n.a.
5.7
0.0
1.5
8.4
9.0
1.2
SMRT
Sector
MEDIA
SPH
Sector
Sector
w w w . u t r a d e . c o m . s g
Analyst's Views
S I N G A P O R E
RW e e t ea ki ll y M Sa ur pk pe ot r Mt o an ni dt o r
R e s i s t a n c e
W a t c h
Rec
Target
Price
(S$)
Price
30 Nov 14
(S$)
Upside
(%)
Monthly
Performance
% Chg
2013
(x)
PE
2014F
(x)
Yield
2014F
(%)
PLANTATION
Bumitama
BUY
1.4
1.07
30.8
(1.8)
18.4
14.3
1.4
FirstRes
BUY
2.8
1.94
44.3
(6.7)
10.3
14.3
2.1
GoldenAgri
KencanaAgri
Wilmar
Sector
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
0.5
0.23
3.55
0.46
0.22
3.21
8.7
4.5
10.6
(11.5)
(2.2)
0.3
15.2
n.a.
12.4
13.1
15.6
11.1
14.5
14.6
0.1
1.2
2.6
2.0
PROPERTY
CapitaLand
BUY
4.08
3.32
22.9
4.7
16.6
20.5
2.4
City Devt
GuocoLand
Ho Bee Land
Keppel Land
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
BUY
10.84
2.48
2.68
4.296
10.06
1.765
1.985
3.37
7.8
40.5
35.0
27.5
6.5
(7.3)
(0.3)
0.9
13.7
49.4
2.3
5.9
16.0
6.7
32.9
12.6
1.6
2.8
1.5
3.6
OUE
Wing Tai
BUY
BUY
2.8
2.4975
2.04
1.72
37.3
45.2
(3.3)
(3.9)
n.a.
2.5
43.5
5.3
2.0
3.5
10.5
15.2
2.4
n.a.
n.a.
0.0
n.a.
n.a.
0.0
Sector
SHIPPING
NOL
BUY
1.01
0.82
Sector
w w w . u t r a d e . c o m . s g
23.2
(1.8)
Analyst's Views
NOLs share price has dropped 22% since endJune to a five-year low, driven by the expectation
of a third year of losses, weak freight rates, port
congestion on the US West Coast and the
potential sale of its profitable logistics business.
S I N G A P O R E
RW e e t ea ki ll y M Sa ur pk pe ot r Mt o an ni dt o r
R e s i s t a n c e
W a t c h
Sembcorp Marine
Yangzijiang
Sector
SUPPLY CHAIN
Noble Group
Olam
Sector
TECHNOLOGY
Venture Corp
Target
Price
(S$)
Price
30 Nov 14
(S$)
Upside
(%)
Monthly
Performance
% Chg
2013
(x)
2014F
(x)
SELL
HOLD
BUY
0.56
9.5
5.2
0.605
9
4.57
(7.4)
5.6
13.8
1.7
(4.7)
(6.2)
44.2
8.8
10.0
24.6
10.0
10.6
1.7
5.0
3.9
HOLD
BUY
3
1.39
3.13
1.225
(4.2)
13.5
(14.0)
8.4
11.8
7.5
9.6
12.2
7.2
10.2
4.1
4.2
4.4
HOLD
HOLD
1.25
2.35
1.225
2.16
2.0
8.8
2.5
1.4
28.8
15.0
20.5
12.9
8.8
11.3
2.2
3.5
2.7
BUY
8.25
7.66
7.7
(0.9)
16.1
15.3
6.5
16.1
15.4
6.5
Rec
Sector
PE
Yield
2014F
(%)
TELECOMS
M1
BUY
3.64
9.9
4.3
20.9
19.9
3.9
S Telecoms
BUY
4.2
3.9
7.7
3.2
17.0
16.7
4.5
StarHub
Sector
HOLD
4.33
4.14
4.6
0.2
19.2
17.4
22.7
17.2
4.8
4.5
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
0.37
1.32
0.8
2.02
1.23
0.35
1.14
0.685
1.93
1.22
5.7
15.8
16.8
4.7
0.8
1.4
3.6
1.5
(2.0)
3.4
5.2
23.7
28.8
28.6
13.6
17.2
19.0
22.7
26.8
26.7
24.1
23.7
2.2
0.9
7.8
3.2
2.9
3.2
OTHERS
Genting HK US$
Genting SP
HPH Trust US$
SingPost
SuperGroup
Sector
w w w . u t r a d e . c o m . s g
Analyst's Views
S I N G A P O R E
RW e e t ea ki ll y M Sa ur pk pe ot r Mt o an ni dt o r
R e s i s t a n c e
W a t c h
Rec
Target
Price
(S$)
Price
30 Nov 14
(S$)
Upside
(%)
Monthly
Performance
% Chg
2013
(x)
PE
2014F
(x)
Yield
2014F
(%)
REITS
Ascendasreit
AscottREIT
CACHE
CapitaComm
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
2.73
1.4
1.35
1.88
2.34
1.275
1.175
1.685
16.7
9.8
14.9
11.6
4.9
2.8
0.4
0.9
18.2
26.3
15.6
22.2
16.3
20.6
15.3
21.7
6.3
6.6
7.3
5.0
CapitaMall
CDL Htrust
HOLD
BUY
2.14
2.01
1.98
1.735
8.1
15.9
0.5
0.6
19.6
16.3
18.5
16.8
5.4
6.2
FrasersCT
Frasers HTrust
Kep REIT
MapletreeInd
MapletreeLog
PLife REIT
Sabana REIT
Starhill Gbl
Suntec REIT
Sector
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
SELL
BUY
BUY
2.23
1
1.42
1.66
1.32
2.52
0.98
0.93
2.05
1.895
0.88
1.24
1.505
1.18
2.35
0.965
0.81
1.97
17.7
13.6
14.5
10.3
11.9
7.2
1.6
14.8
4.1
(2.6)
(0.6)
1.6
2.0
0.4
(1.7)
(2.5)
(0.6)
10.4
18.2
20.5
23.2
15.3
15.6
22.6
12.8
15.6
44.9
20.9
18.0
19.8
24.6
15.4
15.9
20.4
15.1
16.5
30.6
19.3
5.9
7.0
6.3
6.7
6.5
5.0
7.9
6.1
4.8
5.9
Analyst's Views
If year end is before June, earnings are shown in the previous period
@ Consensus forecast
w w w . u t r a d e . c o m . s g
S I N G A P O R E
RW e e t ea ki ll y M Sa ur pk pe ot r Mt o an ni dt o r
R e s i s t a n c e
W a t c h
Upside
BUY
BUY
Target
Price
(S$)
0.72
2.06
(%)
20.2
12.6
Monthly
Performance
% Chg
(1.7)
(0.5)
2013
(x)
11.1
13.2
2014F
(x)
12.6
15.0
Yield
2014F
(%)
4.4
2.7
BUY
BUY
0.91
1.03
0.56
0.7
61.6
47.1
3.7
(5.4)
24.7
5.5
15.6
6.7
2.5
3.7
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
0.87
0.62
0.88
1.03
0.275
1.15
0.74
0.85
0.89
0.455
0.655
0.935
0.215
0.65
1.05
0.715
(2.2)
36.3
34.4
10.2
27.9
76.9
(29.5)
18.9
(11.9)
1.1
(3.0)
1.6
2.4
(5.1)
21.4
10.0
21.2
10.1
99.9
15.9
12.2
20.3
25.3
45.5
16.5
7.6
10.3
15.6
13.1
24.0
21.2
77.5
0.0
4.0
3.9
0.0
6.0
1.0
0.0
0.8
Isoteam Ltd
Kori Holdings Ltd
KrisEnergy
Ksh Holdings Ltd
Lantrovision
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
0.64
0.355
1.18
0.71
0.655
0.51
0.45
0.785
0.52
0.59
25.5
(21.1)
50.3
36.5
11.0
3.0
0.0
(4.8)
(1.9)
2.6
20.2
6.4
n.a.
4.6
15.9
9.9
9.0
n.a.
3.9
11.5
2.0
4.4
0.0
0.0
5.1
Osim International
Overseas Education
Pan-United Corp Ltd
QT Vascular
Rex International
RH PetroGas
Riverstone
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
3.25
0.91
1.04
0.6
1.27
1
1.09
2.16
0.865
0.835
0.295
0.405
0.475
0.955
50.5
5.2
24.6
103.4
213.6
110.5
14.1
16.1
(4.9)
(9.2)
(13.2)
(16.5)
(19.5)
(1.0)
16.7
15.2
10.4
n.a.
n.a.
21.1
15.5
14.9
16.9
10.3
n.a.
n.a.
43.6
14.7
3.4
3.0
4.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.1
Rotary Engineering
Silverlake Axis Ltd
SELL
BUY
0.43
1.7
0.55
1.295
(21.8)
31.3
(9.1)
(4.8)
15.1
36.3
5.9
30.3
6.8
3.5
SingHaiyi
Sino Grandness
Food Industry
Smartflex
Tai Sin
Tiong Woon
Ying Li International
Yongnam Holdings
BUY
BUY
0.24
0.95
0.146
0.465
64.4
104.3
(3.3)
8.1
41.3
3.1
15.6
2.9
0.0
3.4
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
0.21
0.51
0.455
0.4
0.25
0.156
0.365
0.27
0.26
0.194
34.6
39.7
68.5
53.8
28.9
(1.3)
(3.9)
(8.5)
(1.9)
(15.7)
n.a.
8.4
7.1
20.3
7.5
11.9
7.1
6.7
18.4
6.5
5.6
6.2
1.5
0.0
0.0
Company
Rec
Amtek
Boustead Sp
Centurion
China Aviation Oil
Singapore
Cordlife Group Ltd
Courts Asia Ltd
CSE Global
Guocoleisure Ltd
Hafary Holdings Ltd
Halcyon Agri Corp
HanKore
Hi-P
PE
Analyst's Views
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Subject Business involving any of the subject corporation(s) or securities referred to in this report; and (4) he/she has not received and will
not receive any compensation that is directly or indirectly related or linked to the recommendations or views expressed in this report or to
any sales, trading, dealing or corporate finance advisory services or transaction in respect of the securities in this report. However, the
compensation received by each such research analyst is based upon various factors, including UOBKHs total revenues, a portion of
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