HW 1 answer key

Q.1:
= 15 cust/hr,

= 24 cust/hr

a) 0.625
b) 1.04 cust
c) 10:07 am
Q.2:
= 5 students/hr, Lq= 2 students
Wq= Lq/

= (2/5) hour = 24 minutes

Q.3:
Cw= $10; Cs = $8+$9=$17
S=2
TC (A) = $10 * 0.87 + 2 * $17 = $42.70;
S=1
TC (B) = $10 * 3 + 1*17 = $47;
S=1
For system (C): Cw= $10; Cs = $25
TC (C) = $10 * 1.5 + 1* $25 = $40
Q4:
A bank has one common queue and three tellers. S=3. Assume Poisson and Exponential
distributions.
= 15/hr = 12/hr
P0=

1 15 1 15 1 15
0! 12
1! 12 2! 12

3(12)
1 15
3! 12 3(12) 15

1
1 0.2786
(11.25 0.78125 0.5579 3.589

Lq= 0.398597*0.2786=0.1111

Q5:
Yes
Arrivals are random, for example two customers may arrive at the same time.
Q6:

= 25/hr

= 60min/1.2= 50/hr
Lq = 252/50*25 = 0.5 customer
Wq = Lq/= 0.5/ 25 = 0.02 hr = 1.2 min
W = 1.2 + 1.2 = 2.4 min
Arrived at 9:57.6 AM

Q7:
(a)System A: A single channel operation: Lq =1.33 cust.
You may use, Lq or compute L as follows:
L = Lq + / = 1.33 + 2/3 = 2.0
ANS: TC (system A) = 2*20+ 1*30 = 70
(b) System B: A two-channel operation: Lq= 0.08 cust.
L = Lq+ / = 0.08+ 2/3 = 0.75 cust.
ANS: TC (system B) = 0.75*20+ 2*30 = 75
(c) System C: Two separate lines, one server dedicated for each line. Customers choose a line
at random. Average # of customers waiting to be served in each line= 0.1667
cust.
L for each line = 0.1667+ 1/3 = 0.5
ANS: TC (system C)= 2* (0.5*20+ 1*30) = $80

Q8:
RN Interval Tables:
Table 1:
Random #
Recollection
of Ad
0.0-.40

Recall

.40-1.0

Don't Recall

Table 2:
Random #

Purchase of
Dryer (Recall)

0.0-0.3

No

0.3-0.6

Uncertain

0.6-1.0

Yes

Table 3:
Random #

Purchase of Dryer
(Don't Recall)

0.0-0.5
0.5-0.9
0.9-1.0

No
Uncertain
Yes

Simulation:
Call #

Random #

1
2
3
4

Decision

0.55
0.21
0.38
0.56

Recall/Don't
Recall
Don't Recall
Recall
Recall
Don't Recall

% of consumers who said they would buy the dryer = 50%

Rando
m#

Decision
Yes/No/Uncertain

0.63
0.84
0.18
0.98

Uncertain
Yes
No
Yes

Q9:
RN Interval Table:
Arrivals:

Random #

Arrival Time

0.0-0.15
0.15-0.9

On-Time
Early
(20mins)
Late
(20mins)

0.9-1
Treatment Times:

Patient A Treatment Time:

= 20 + (30-20)*RN
Patient B Treatment Time:

Random #

Treatment
Time

0.0-0.4
0.4-1

20 mins
30mins

Patient C Treatment Time:

= 30 + (40-30)*RN
Patient D Treatment Time:
= 30 + (40-30)*RN
simulation: RNs: .91, .52, .96, .17, .50, .60, .20, .80, .99, .12

Patient

Schedul
ed

Random
#

Decision

9:05AM

.91

9:30AM

.52

9:45AM

.96

10:05A
M

.17

20 mins
late
20 mins
early
20 mins
late
20 mins
early

Patient D gets done at 11:16AM

Arrival
Time
9:25AM
9:10AM
10:05AM
9:45AM

Start
Time

Random
#

9:40AM

.60

26 mins

10:06AM

9:10AM

.50

30 mins

9:40AM

10:06A
M
10:38A
M

Treatment
Time

Finish Time

.20

32 mins

10:38AM

.80

38 mins

11:16AM

Q10:

Q11: Each student may get different answers, but your answers should be close to:
Switch: Prob( winning)=66%
No switch: Prob( winning)=33%

Q12:
Simulation of magazine sales:
The historical sales data for a magazine salesman shows:
no one answers the telephone (no one is home) 30%
some one answers(some one is home) 70%
Further, of the people who do answer the telephone, 80% are men.
The frequency distribution for the number of subscriptions ordered by men is as follows:
Number of Subscriptions
0
1
2
3
Probability
0.10 0.40 0.30 0.20
The frequency distribution for the number of the subscriptions ordered by women is as
follows:
Number of Subscriptions
0
1
2
Probability
0.60 0.30 0.10
The salesmans profit is $2 for each subscription sold.
RN Interval Tables:
Table 1
Random # Telephone Response
0.0-0.3
0.3-1.0

No one answers
Some one answers

Table 2
Random #

Gender

0.0-0.8
0.8-1.0

Male
Female

Table 3
Random # # Of subscriptions (men)
0.0-0.1
0.1-0.5
0.5-0.8
0.8-1.0

0
1
2
3

Table 4:
Random # # Of subscriptions (women)
0.0-0.6
0.6-0.9
0.9-1.0

Simulation:

0
1
2

Case #

Random
#

1
2
3
4

0.8742
0.5463
0.0141
0.6219

Total profit= $8

Decision Random# Decision

Y/N
Y
Y
N
Y

0.9351
0.2351
0.5348

M/F
F
M
M

Random
#

Profit

0.1249
0.4213
0.8431

Decision
# Of
orders
0
1
3

Total

In $
0
2
0
6

Q13:
Probabilities of brand switching from week to week are :
From:
To:
C
P
G
C 65% 10% 10%
P 30% 75% 5%
G 5% 15% 85%

Consider a customer who is a coke customer in the first week. Which

buying in the 7th week?
Random Numbers:.51, .71, .91, .46, .03, .09, .91
Random Number Tables:
Coke:
0.0 - 0.65
0.65 0 .95
0.95 1

C
P
G

Pepsi:
0.0 - 0.10
0.10 0 .85
0.85 1

C
P
G

Generic:
0.0 - 0.10
0.10 0 .15
0.15 1

C
P
G

Simulation: first week customer bought coke

Wk
RN
Purchase
1
C
2
.51
C
3
.71
P
4
.91
G
5
.46
G
6
.03
C
7
.09
C
th
Customer will buy C in the 7 week

brand would he be

Q14
Q15
Q16
To be discussed during recitations.