KULIAH PENGANTAR

PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA
Prof Emeritus Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Universitas Indonesia
Fakultas Ekonomi

11 Februari 2015

BAHAN A

GEOGRAFI
INDONESIA ARCHIPELAGIC SEA LANES
SLoC MALACA

ALKI I

ALKI IIIC
ALKI IIIB
ALKI II

ALKI IIIA

Note: ALKI = SLOC (Alur Laut Kepulauan Indonesia = Sea-Lane of Communication)

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

INDONESIA ECONOMIC EXCLUSIVE ZONE

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

 DEMOGRAFI
TEN LARGEST COUNTRIES AND THEIR POPULATION, SELECTED YEARS
(millions)

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

 DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES 2015-2025: MAKE OR BREAK

Indonesias Potential: demographic bonus

Indonesia has the fourth ranking population in the world, with 237.6 million people (2010), and the working age
population is close to 70% of the total population. Population growth rose to 1.49% in 2010.
Indonesias window of demographic bonus (only if it accompanied by better quality education to produce
skilled workers and more job creation) will close in the next decade, as the dependecy ratio (i.e. ratio of young
and elderly to working age) will start to rise after 2030.
INDONESIA: Age Structure of Population and Dependency Ratio (%), 1950-2050

Source: Government of Indonesia (2011), Master Plan: Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011-2025

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

Correlations:

The Middle-Income Trap

By Evan Applegate June 13, 2013
Speaking on June 6 in Chengdu, China,
Executive Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli said his
country has to stand up to the test of
striding over the middle-income trap.
Zhang was referring to a well-known
phenomenon: Many nations can move
from low-income to middle-income status,
but as labor costs rise only countries that
boost productivity, improve education, and
master innovation fully develop.

www.businessweek.com
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

BAHAN B

 Crisis: The worst in 3 decades (!)

The Jakarta Post, November 15, 2008

- Events which were calculated to occur once in 20 years in fact occurred much more regularly
indicating that risk management assumptions did not reflect the distribution of the actual
outcomes
(Blankfein, FT, 9/2/2009)
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

- Too strong upside

The Economist commodity-price index

Jul 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

(irrational exuberance)

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The Economist commodity-price index

From The Economist print edition

- Too strong downside

(irrational gloom)
Feb 26th 2009

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

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The Economist commodity-price index

Dec 20th 2014

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

Feb 7th 2015

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Fuel prices during Megawati Soekarnoputris presidential term

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

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Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

15

Pada saat Krisis Sub-Prime Mortgage pecah di AS pada tahun 2008 yang lalu, index VIX
melonjak jauh ke 80 (!), yang mencerminkan situasi lepas kendali di dunia perbankan
serta keuangan di AS. Pada awal September 2011 yang baru lalu: index itu sempat mencapai
sekitar 50. Silahkan diperhatikan 52 wk high VIX setinggi 48.00, yang lebih tinggi daripada
yang ditunjukkan oleh VDX, VXN dan VDAX, yang masing-masing adalah 42,64; 47,23; dan
47,30. Gejolak bulan Nopember 2011 ini ditimbulkan oleh Krisis Hutang Yunani yang
menggoncang seluruh Eurozone, dan yang memerlukan dana bailout yang sangat besar
dari European Central Bank (ECB) yang tak dapat diberikan segera keputusannya oleh bank
sentral dari ekonomi-ekonomi EU yang kuat seperti Jerman dan Perancis.
Seperti tampak pada tabel berikut: meskipun volatility indices tersebut per 2 November
2011 telah menurun ke tingkatan 34-37 tapi IHSG dari Dow Jones Titans tetap berjatuhan,
dengan yang terjadi di Bursa Efek Italia merupakan yang terburuk jatuh sebesar 25,6% per
Year-to-date. Index Dow Jones Titans ini disusun dari index sejumlah emiten yang paling
besar dan paling likuid di bursa efek beberapa negara yang diamati oleh Dow Jones. Ini
berarti, para aktivis di bursa efek Italia sangat khawatir terhadap faktor exposure bank
dan lembaga-lembaga keuangan Italia yang cukup besar terhadap hutang Yunani. Demikian
pula halnya dalam hal Perancis dan Jerman. Bandingkan di antara gambaran Year-to-date
dengan gambaran 52 weeks boleh dikatakan menghasilkan gambaran situasi yang sama.
Mohon dicatat bahwa gambaran situasi tersebut adalaha atas dasar IHSG per US Dollar
bukan per matauang lokal masing-masing negara.
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

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Financial Times. December 1, 2011

Financial Times (ASIA) Friday, June 13, 2014

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

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Financial Times Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

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Sampling of Key VIX Peak Daily Closing

Prices in Select Years

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

23-Aug-90

36.47

30-Oct-97

38.20

08-Oct-98

45.74

20-Sep-01

43.74

05-Aug-02

45.08

16-Aug-06

30.83

12-Nov-07

31.09

20-Nov-08

80.86

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TABLE-Global FX volume reaches $5.3 trillion a day in 2013

BIS-Reuters - Thu Sep 5, 2013 9:00am

GLOBAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET TURNOVER

(Daily averages in April in US$ billion)
Instrument

2013

2010

Foreign exchange instruments

5,345

3,971

Spot transactions

2,046

1,488

Outright forwards

680

475

FX swaps

2,228

1,759

Currency swaps

54

43

Options and other products

337

207

Turnover at April 2013 FX rates*

5,345

3,969

* Non-US dollar legs of foreign currency transactions were converted into original currency amounts at
average exchange rates for April of each survey year and then reconverted into US dollar amounts at
average April 2013 exchange rates

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

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LAKON GEJOLAK AWAL 2015

Kalau Yen terus melemah menuju ke Y120/USD yang
merupakan 30-year support maka RMB bisa terdesak
untuk didevaluasi
Peristiwa ini bisa menimbulkan deflasi di USA dan EU
Catatan
Sejak 1998 psychological floor buat Y/USD adalah Y120/USD
- Semua EMs akan mengalami pelemahan matauang mereka
terhadap USD

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

MENGENAL EKONOMI INDONESIA

World Development Indicators database, World Bank, 16 December 2014

(millions of
international dollars)

World Development Indicators database, World Bank, 16 December 2014

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VOTERS TURNOUT

95%

95%

93%
84%

75%

71%

High Generasi
Millenium
participation

1992

1997

1999

2004

2009

2014

Direct & Open

General Election
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

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Menuju ke G20 Brisbane

Us to warn Europe on risk of lost decade

Region faces threat of deeper malaise
(US Treasury Secretary)
FT 13/11/2014

Abe is man on a mission destination unknown

The Godfather of Abenomics, Kuroda the BOJ governor launches another
round of QE at a time the Fed Reserve is going the other way
FT 13/11/2014

IEA warn on impact of oil price dip

A near 30% fall in the price of Brent since mid-June to $81.67 this week
- There will be a 10% decline in oil/shale investments in 2015
- Causing jitters in countries that rely heavily on oil revenues
FT 13/11/2014

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

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Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

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Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.

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Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.