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Can Mexicos incoming government

make the needed reforms?
By Enrique Krauze, Published: June 29
MEXICO CITY
On Sunday, about 45 million Mexicans (roughly 60 percent of eligible voters in a
population of 110 million) are expected to choose their next president. Most polls
predict that the winner will be Enrique Pea Nieto, the young candidate of an old
party, the PRI, that is often associated with the image of a dinosaur. Unless there
is a major upset which would probably be in favor of Andrs Manuel Lpez
Obrador, the left candidate many Mexicans will ponder two questions: Will we
see the restoration of the old regime, which Mario Vargas Llosa once called the
perfect dictatorship? And will the next government basically alter President
Felipe Calderns strategies to fight the drug trade and organized crime? The
answer to both seems to be a qualified no.
Vargas Llosa was right about the past. The Institutional Revolutionary Party, or
PRI, functioned for decades like a well-oiled machine, only occasionally feeling
the need for physical or ideological coercion. Every six years, the outgoing
president, who wielded absolute power, selected his successor. The system
gave the country stability, order and growth, all at the cost of political
development. It engendered theft and generalized corruption and a cancer that
grew invisibly within the social body: governmental complicity with the growing
drug trade. Mexico was a monarchy in democratic disguise.
But the perfect dictatorship died in the 2000 presidential election, with the
PRIs loss of power after more than 70 years. Mexico changed. The president
now exercises only his prescribed constitutional powers. We have a multi-party
congress and an independent Supreme Court. A transparency law has reduced
free-wheeling corruption at the federal level. There is absolute freedom of
expression. The government no longer organizes and controls elections; they are regulated by a federal
institute of citizens. The Bank of Mexico is autonomous.
In short, a return to the days of the perfect dictatorship is impossible.
But this doesnt mean that the PRI has become a modern party. Its dinosaurs have taken shelter in state
governments and in gigantic public unions such as the oilworkers union (whose leaders have become, in large
part, proprietors of this public industry). Monopolies, public and private, have also survived. Pea Nieto has
spoken of a renovated PRI, but he has not explained how he would dismantle these remaining structures
and practices.

To combat poverty, Mexicos economy needs to grow at an accelerated rate. Current annual growth, at 3.9
percent, is passable but insufficient. Structural reforms, such as opening the declining petroleum sector to
external investment and some deregulation of overly rigid labor laws, are needed. These moves would
threaten the dinosaur mentality, which has always relied heavily on patronage. Political reform such as
permitting the reelection of congressmen, senators and mayors, all of whom are limited to one term, would
make them subject to future political accountability.
It is not clear that Pea Nieto has the political will and persuasive leadership to confront these public and
private monopolies. And he may have to deal with immediate unrest in the streets from those furiously
opposed to the return of the PRI. They may claim fraud, to seek an annulment of the election. Will Mexico
process such differences without descending into political violence? I hope and trust that we can.
But it is another kind of violence, by the narcos and other criminals, that most concerns the population. In
some states, criminal groups aim at controlling local governments, and photos and descriptions of terrible
crimes pervade the newspapers and social media.
In the past, the government could combat criminal violence through harshly authoritarian means not
acceptable or possible in a democracy. But along with all its benefits, democracy brought one paradoxical
result. By decentralizing control, it strengthened local power, which also benefited local criminals and
facilitated alliances between corrupt police and the narcos. Reform of our police system, which is critical,
will require cultivating increased professionalism and honesty. One of the PRIs most sordid
accomplishments was its use of various police forces as a repressive arm of the system, rather than as
protectors of the people. During Calderns six-year term, 30,000 professionally trained police were added to
federal forces. We need many more capable and honest officers, and Pea Nieto has said that, if elected, he
will make this expansion (and, presumably, purification) of the police one of his first priorities.
Mexicos problems are immense, but international opinion has at times been too harsh with my country in
recent years. After weathering a number of economic crises, we have learned to manage our finances and
improved public health programs and aid to the needy. It took Western democracies centuries to establish
their systems. With no real previous experience, we have made giant strides in just a few years.
Major improvements are still needed in education and various social programs. In fighting drug traffickers
Mexico would benefit from greater U.S. cooperation in gathering information, and Mexico must take better
control of its border and jails.
Whatever happens Sunday, Mexico has seen the genuine and irreversible advance of democracy. All of these
difficult moves became possible only because of the changes since 2000.
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