The statistical analysis of the US domestic box office (Jan 2000- Dec

2013)
Introduction
Box office refers to the money spent on tickets at movie theatres. The analysis of
these earnings is very important for the US film industry, and it helps the US
industry to find out what type of movie will most of the people be interested in. It
is also very influential for the production and funding of future works.

Purpose

Decomposition of data:Total.Gross
1.4e+09

Trend

Raw data

1.2e+09
1e+09
8e+08
6e+08
4e+08

Seasonal Swing

4e+08
2e+08
0
-2e+08

2e+08
1e+08
0
-1e+08

Residuals

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Total gross variability expressed as a range is $1.4 - $0.4 = $1 billion.

The trend position change is from about $600 to $900 million, i.e. $300 million in
14 years, so this trend explains up to 30% of the total variation. (3 / 10 = 0.3)

The average seasonal effect varies from about $-300 to $400 million ($700
million change) representing up to 70% of the total gross variation. (7 / 10 =
0.7)
This shows us that most of the long term change is caused by the seasonal
component. The seasonal effects can have a greater effect on total gross and will
be important for forecasting.
This will be particularly true for school days and holiday analysis containing July
and September months when the seasonal effect is large.
Residual sizes in this model are $200 million providing up to 20% of total
variation ($200 / $10 = 0.2)
This will add significant uncertainty to forecasting as the amount of residuals is
big. For a well-fitted model, it is important that*****

Time series plot for Total.Gross

1.4e+09
1.2e+09
1e+09
8e+08
6e+08
4e+08
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

The LOWESS smoother shows that on average, the total gross is increasing over
time. The trend line is fairly stationary. Between 2000 and 2008, the trend is
increasing at the beginning, until 2005 and 2007 where a little trough is shown
on the time series plot; during 2008 to 2014, the trend is increasing over time,
except a downfall around 2011, the trend line then started to increase again.

The overall change in the trend position is from $600 to $900 million in 14 years.
This suggests an average long term total gross growth rate is about $21 million
per year. ($900 - $600 = $300, $300 / 14 = $21)

Additive seasonal effects

2e+08
-1e+08

2008
2012
2013
2006
2011
2005
2007
2004
2003
2002
2001

1e+08

2012
2006
2005
2007
2003
2010
2011
2002
2001
2004
2000
2008

0e+00

2009
2013

2010
2009

-2e+08

2000

-3e+08

4.0e+08

6.0e+08

8.0e+08

1.0e+09

1.2e+09

3e+08

1.4e+09

Seasonal plot for Total.Gross

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Month

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Month

The seasonal plot for total gross shows an unsteady pattern. The total gross in
July are on average about $400 million above trend. The regular July maximums
can be explained by the US school holiday period which encourages the
increased spending.
The total gross in September on average are about $290 million below trend.
Looking along the LOWESS smoother,

Holt-Winters prediction for Total.Gross

Raw data

Fitted

Prediction

1.6e+09
1.4e+09
1.2e+09
1e+09
8e+08
6e+08
4e+08
2000

2005

2010

Time

2015