The significance of accuracy and

precision.
On Friday the 13th of June, our class had an experiment to practically see the
difference between accuracy and precision. Students from each group tried to
throw chalk pieces into the bulls eye. Later each groups throws were analysed
to see who was accurate and who was precise.
Were bombarded with numbers every day. But seeing a number
and understanding it are two different things. Far too often, the true
significance of a figure is hidden, unknown, or misjudged. There is an
important distinction between accuracy and precision.
Here is one example reported cases of cholera worldwide. Cholera is perhaps
the most widespread and serious water-related disease, directly associated with
the failure to provide safe drinking water and adequate sanitation. Billions of
people lack this basic human right and suffer from illness as a result. Millions die
unnecessary deaths.
The World Health Organization has reported that in 2011, 58 countries
reported 589,854 cases of cholera.
Now what does this number mean? Is it accurate? Is it precise?
Accuracy and precision are not the same things. In the field of science and data,
accuracy is typically considered to be a measure of how close a number is to
that quantitys true value. Precision is a term which describes the degree to
which repeated efforts to do, or measure, something will produce the same
results. Any particular data can be accurate, precise, both, or neither.
So, back to cholera. This number of cases 589,854 seems very precise. It is
reported to six significant figures a very high degree of precision.
In fact, however, this number is an example of false precision it is presented
in a way (with six significant figures) that implies, incorrectly, a higher degree of
both precision and accuracy than reality warrants.
Why? First, it is entirely possible that this number is exactly the sum (i.e., it is
precise) of the number of cases of cholera reported to WHO by the 58 reporting
countries. But experts on water-related disease note the following:
1. Many countries around the world do not report water-related diseases at
all. As noted above, in 2011 only 58 countries reported cholera. We know
cholera occurred in countries not reporting.
2. Most cholera outbreaks are not detected. Thus, even countries reporting
cholera underreport.
3. There is no agreed-upon standard definition for determining if a case of
extreme or acute watery diarrhea is cholera or a different illness that
presents the same way.
4. Health surveillance systems (i.e., medical systems for tracking, recording,
and reporting disease) vary dramatically from country to country in their
quality and completeness.

5. Some major countries, known to have extensive and severe cholera

outbreaks, typically report zero instances of cholera because they either
fear the stigma associated with the failing to provide adequate water
systems or they hide cholera cases by labeling them as something else
(such as acute watery diarrhea).
Thus, this highly precise number is neither precise nor accurate. The WHO
acknowledges this, and indeed, believes the officially reported cases could
represent only a small fraction of the actual number that occurs. Taking these
uncertainties into account, WHO estimates that there are as many as 10 times
more cases than are actually reported. A more detailed statistical
analysis recently suggested that overall there are around 2.8 million cases of
cholera every year (with an uncertainty range of 1.2 to 4.3 million) and about
91,000deaths (with an uncertainty range of 28,000 to 140,000).
So, beware misleading numbers. The officially reported estimates of cholera
cases are neither precise (despite six significant figures), nor accurate.
Finally, there is another aspect to significance. That is the importance of the
figure in some context. In this sense, the cholera numbers may be neither
accurate nor precise, but they are significant. They tell the story of a horrible and
unnecessary situation a deadly, crippling, and preventable disease that is the
result of our failure to provide safe water and sanitation to all the population on
the planet. Cholera is completely preventable weve effectively eliminated it in
the United States and other industrialized countries by putting in place
wastewater treatment and water purification systems. Lets improve our data
collection and reporting system, so we know, accurately, the extent of the
problem, and then lets move quickly to do what is necessary to reduce and
eliminate cholera.