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SEPTEMBEROCTOBER 2011
RENEWABLE
GROWTH
volume 14 number 5
Contents
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RENEWABLE
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CONTENTS
RENEWABLE
GROWTH
REGULARS
From the Editor............................................................. 4
News/Analysis ............................................................... 8
A roundup of news from around the world
Company results....................................................... 86
Diary ................................................................................. 91
Advertisers Index ..................................................... 92
59
FEATURES
The Big Question ......................................... 20
Each edition, REW asks leading players in the industry to give their
verdict on a key issue of the moment. In the Big Question feature
for this edition, we asked readers to give us their predictions for
how the UKs recently announced Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI)
will play out. Will this new policy successfully engage industry
and consumers to develop a major new commercial sector and
provide a key route to achieving the policy goals of new renewable
energy and lower carbon emissions? Will it succeed in
influencing other European nations and those further afield to
implement similar initiatives or, as happened with solar PV, will the
success of this new programme lead to a subsequent revision,
and if so what will the outcomes be for manufacturers, consumers
and the commercial and industrial sectors?
Renewables 2011 Global Status Report ..... 24
A positive constant amid the economic turbulence of the last year
has been the global performance of renewable energy. Renewable
sources have grown to supply an estimated 20% of global final
energy consumption in 2010. We explore the state of the global
renewable energy sector.
By Janet L. Sawin and Eric Martinot
A view from the top .................................... 32
Many heads of government around the world, wondering how they
can play their part in the worlds shift to renewable energy, could be
forgiven for looking enviously at Brazil, where energy from
renewable sources already stood at almost 45% in 2010 and is
forecast to rise to over 46% in 2020. With almost half of its energy
supply generated by renewable sources, we explore what makes
Brazil increasingly look like a positive example to the rest of
the world.
By Robin Yapp
20
47
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CONTENTS
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67
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David Appleyard
Chief Editor
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WORLDS LARGEST
OFFSHORE WIND
ENERGY EVENT
COMES TO THE NETHERLANDS
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NEWS ANALYSIS
cenarios
for
onshore
and offshore wind power
deployment in the EU have
been published by trade group the
European Wind Energy Association
(EWEA) ahead of next years
European Commission Energy
Roadmap 2050.
Wind energy will more than
triple its power output by 2020 with
194 billion invested in European
onshore and offshore wind farms
in this decade, said Justin Wilkes,
policy director of EWEA. This
success is mainly driven by a strong
EU regulatory framework to 2020,
which we need also after 2020.
Electricity production from wind
power is expected to increase
from 182 TWh or 5.5% of total EU
demand in 2010, to 581 TWh or
15.7% of total demand in 2020.
By 2020, said EWEA, electricity
production from wind will be
equivalent to the total electricity
consumption of all households in
France, Germany, Poland, Spain
and the UK combined.
By 2030, 1154 TWh (28% of
total demand) is projected to be
produced by wind, more than
the EUs predicted 241 million
private households are expected
to consume in 2030, according to
EWEA forecasts, an increase of a
factor of five on todays figures.
RENEWABLE
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By 2020, electricity production from wind energy will be 581 TWh or 15.7% of total demand in the
European Union, EWEA believes. By 2030, 1154 TWh or 28% of total demand is projected
EWEA
POSITIVE TRENDS
EWEA noted several positive trends
with respect to these transactions
and the overall market:
The number of banks willing
to take offshore wind risk is
steadily growing more than 20
institutions have now obtained
firm credit committee approval;
Tildy Bayar
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NEWS ANALYSIS
GRID TECHNOLOGY
10
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NEWS ANALYSIS
12
RENEWABLE
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Nuozhadu-Guangdong
and
Xiluodu-Guangdong in southern
China. The purchaser is China
Southern Power Grid Co.
Nuozhadu-Guangdong will have
a transmission capacity of 5 GW at
a voltage of 800 kV, while XiluoduGuangdong is to have an overall
capacity of 6.4 GW at 500 kV,
Siemens says. The total order value
for the company is approximately
250 million and commissioning of
the systems is scheduled for 2013.
Large-capacity
hydroelectric
plants such as Nuozhadu and the
12.6 GW Xiluodo in southwest
China will use the low-loss
transmission provided by the
new links to bring energy to the
megacities Guangzhou, Jiangmen,
Dongguan and Shenzhen.
For the Nuozhadu-Guangdong
800 kV HVDC bipole system,
Siemens, together with its Chinese
partners, will supply the converter
valves both for the sending station
in Puer in the province of Yunnan
and for the receiving station in
Jiangmen, Guangdong Province, a
distance of 1451 km.
The Xiluodu-Guangdong project
is a double 500 kV bipole system
David Appleyard
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NEWS ANALYSIS
BIOFUELS MARKETS: US
14
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HOWEVER...
In mid-August the US Department
of Agriculture announced that
the Obama administration will
Tildy Bayar
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kl-company.de
______
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www.hawe.de
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_______________
NEWS ANALYSIS
GRIDS GET A
BIT SMARTER
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NEWS ANALYSIS
Tildy Bayar
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NEWS ANALYSIS
2011 PV FORECAST
CHINA IS KEY
One significant factor in IMS
Researchs increased forecast is
the recently introduced national
feed-in tariff (FiT) in China, which
was revealed by the National
Development
and
Reform
Commission (NDRC) in August.
This FiT pays a premium for
installations completed this year,
but continues past the end of
the year and is in addition to the
countrys Golden Sun scheme. We
earlier predicted the introduction of
a PV FiT in China once prices had
fallen to an acceptable level and
were forecasting installations of
1.3 GW this year and more than 2
GW in 2012, commented Sharma.
In the longer term, IMS projects that
China will become a key player for
PV and not just for production,
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NEWS ANALYSIS
THE RANKINGS
The 10 most important PV markets
in 2011, according to IMS Research,
will be:
1. Germany
2. Italy
3. USA
4. China
5. Japan
6. France
7. Australia
8. India
9. Spain
10. Canada
INCREASING OPTIMISM
IMS is now also more optimistic
about the mid-term future for the
PV industry and has also raised its
projections for 2012. Despite many
still predicting doom and gloom,
our latest research presents a very
different picture. The decision by the
Chinese government to introduce
a national FiT to boost flagging
demand, as well as a diversifying
global market and the introduction
of new incentive schemes globally
presents a much more optimistic,
but still very challenging future for
the industry, concluded Sharma.
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IG
THE BO
N
APTOPIX
QUESTI
RITTER SOLAR
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WESSEX GROUP
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a
particularly
unfortunate outcome as these
will generally be claiming the
lower rates.
Treatment of CHP is another
issue. At the time of writing,
we are still waiting for the
governments proposals on the
future of the CHP uplift within
the Renewables Obligation.
If the uplift is removed, those
projects will be dependent on
the RHI. As were talking about
a relatively small number of large
projects, this would compound
the difficulty of staying in budget.
The RHI is a major
achievement, and certainly has
the potential to deliver. But there
is still a great deal that could go
wrong, and government must
be very careful to finish the job
in Phase 2 and implement it as
promised by autumn 2012.
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STATE OF THE
GLOBAL MARKET
A positive constant amid the economic turbulence of the last year has been
the global performance of renewable energy. Renewable sources grew
to supply an estimated 16% of global final energy consumption in 2010.
In this article Janet L. Sawin and Eric Martinot explore the state of the
global renewable electricity sector.
n the last year, the world has seen many significant developments
that have had an impact both direct and indirect on renewable
energy. The global economic recession entered a new phase in
2010, marked by massive public finance crises felt most acutely
in Europe that led several governments to announce incentive
cuts for solar energy. Natural gas prices remained low, temporarily
reducing the competitiveness of renewable energy. At the same
time, worldwide developments highlighted the security, economic
and human costs of relying so heavily on fossil and nuclear energy.
Global energy consumption rebounded strongly in 2010 after an
overall downturn in 2009, with annual growth of 5.4%, well above
the historical average. Renewable energy, which had no downturn in
2009, also continued its strong growth.
Indeed, renewable energy accounted for approximately half of
the estimated 194 GW of new electric capacity added globally during
2010 while existing renewable power capacity worldwide reached an
estimated 1320 GW in 2010, up almost 8% from 2009. Renewables
now comprise about a quarter of total global power generating
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averaged 27%. The annual global wind power market held steady in
2010, just slightly above 2009, due to slower growth in the US and
Europe brought on by policy uncertainty, by the continuing economic
crisis, and by depressed electricity demand in many developed
countries. As a result, for the first time, the majority of new turbine
capacity was added in developing countries and emerging markets
rather than in winds traditional markets. This growth was driven
primarily by China, which accounted for 50% of global capacity
additions in 2010, up from 4.4% in 2005. China added 18.9 GW
of new wind, a 37% increase over 2009, bringing the country into
the global lead with a total of 44.7 GW. However, about 13 GW
of this capacity had not yet been commercially certified by yearend, although all but 2 GW was in fact already feeding electricity
to the grid.
The US added just over 5 GW in 2010, compared with more
than 10 GW the previous year, bringing its total to 40.2 GW, a 15%
increase over 2009. By year-end, wind accounted for 2.3% of
generation (up from 1.8% in 2009). Texas, with 10.1 GW, had more
than one quarter of existing US capacity at the end of the year.
The European Union installed nearly 9.5 GW in 2010, down
slightly compared with 2009 but bringing the total to about 84 GW.
For the first year since 2007, wind did not account for the largest
share of new capacity and in fact came in third behind natural
gas and PV.
Germany maintained its lead in Europe with 27.2 GW operating at
the end of 2010, generating 36.5 TWh during the year. Nevertheless,
the annual addition of 1.6 GW represented a 19% reduction in new
capacity relative to 2009 and the smallest annual German wind
market since 1999; if dismantled systems are accounted for, net
capacity additions totaled 1.5 GW.
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at the end of 2010, with most of this in Europe and the rest in China
(0.1 GW) and Japan (0.02 GW). The European offshore market grew
more than 50% during 2010, bringing total capacity to 3 GW.
SOLAR POWER
More than 100 countries added new solar photovoltaic (PV) during
2010, ensuring that PV remained the worlds fastest growing
technology with an estimated 17 GW of new capacity (compared
with just under 7.3 GW in 2009). This brought the global total to
about 40 GW more than seven times that of five years earlier.
Total existing capacity of all PV grew 72% relative to 2009,
with the average annual growth rate over the 20052010 period
exceeding 49%. For the first time since 2005, thin-films share of
the market declined, from 17% in 2009 to 13% in 2010, although
sales increased. The PV market was driven by falling costs, new
applications, strong investor interest, and continued strong policy
support, but also by accelerated tariff digressions in some countries.
The EU dominated the global market, accounting for 80% of the
total with about 13.2 GW newly installed. And, led by Germany and
Italy, Europe added more PV than wind for the first time ever.
Germany added more PV (7.4 GW) in 2010 than the entire world
did the previous year, ending 2010 with 17.3 GW of capacity. During
the first quarter of 2011, Germany also generated 2.75 TWh from
PV, an increase of 87% over the same period in 2010. Italy added
some 2.3 GW, bringing the official PV total to nearly 3.5 GW, though
actual installations were likely higher. And, in the Czech Republic,
the combination of high feed-in tariff rates and the reduction in
_________________
equipment costs led to a second strong year (1.5 GW), lifting the
country from virtually zero in 2008 to nearly 2 GW in 2010.
Other major European installers in 2010 included France (adding
0.7 GW), which more than tripled its additions relative to 2009,
followed by Belgium (0.4 GW) and Greece (almost 0.2 GW), which
more than quadrupled its 2009 additions. Spain saw a second
consecutive year with installations well below the 2008 peak as
a result of a cap on ground-mounted systems and uncertainties
associated with the new regulatory framework; less than 0.4 GW
were added in 2010, bringing total PV capacity to 3.8 GW.
Beyond Europe, the largest PV markets were Japan (nearly
1 GW), the United States (0.9 GW), and China (0.6 GW). The
Japanese and US PV markets almost doubled relative to 2009, with
Japans total existing capacity reaching 3.6 GW and the US passing
the 2.5 GW mark. More than a quarter of additional US capacity
was in utility-scale projects, and electric utilities are becoming a key
driver of future growth in the country.
The trend toward utility-scale (>200 kW) PV plants continued,
with the number of such systems exceeding 5000 in 2010, up from
just over 3200 in 2009. These facilities totaled some 9.7 GW of
capacity by the end of 2010, an increase of more than 3 GW during
the year, and accounted for almost 25% of total global PV capacity.
Interest in concentrating PV (CPV) is also on the rise, with as
much as 0.02 GW connected to the grid worldwide during 2010
and early 2011.
After years of inactivity, the concentrating solar thermal power
(CSP) market has seen about 740 MW added between 2007 and
end-2010. More than half of this capacity (approximately 478 MW)
was installed during 2010, bringing the global total to 1095 MW.
The global market was dominated by parabolic trough plants, which
account for 90% of CSP plants and for nearly all existing capacity.
Spain added 400 MW in 2010, taking the global lead with a total
of 632 MW, while the US ended the year with 509 MW after adding
78 MW, including two fossil-CSP hybrid plants.
CSP growth is expected to continue at a rapid pace. As of
April 2011, another 946 MW were under construction in Spain with
total new capacity of 1789 MW expected to be in operation by the
end of 2013. In the US, a further 1.5 GW of parabolic trough and
power-tower plants were under construction as of early 2011, and
contracts signed for at least another 6.2 GW. Interest is also notable
in North Africa and the Middle East, as well as India and China.
BIOMASS POWER
Significant increases in biomass for power production were seen
during 2010 in a number of European countries, the US, and in
China, India, and several other developing nations. Globally, an
estimated 62 GW of biomass power capacity was in place by
the end of 2010, with the US continuing to lead. Other significant
producers included the EU led by Germany, Sweden, and the
UK and Brazil, China, and Japan. Less than 0.3 GW of capacity
was added in the US during 2010, bringing the total to 10.4 GW
(excluding municipal organic waste), and biomass generated about
48 TWh during 2010.
The European Unions gross electricity production from biomass
increased nearly 10.2% between 2008 and 2009 (the most recent
year for which complete data are available), from 79.3 TWh to 87.4
TWh. Solid biomass accounted for 62.2 TWh about 71% and
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of solid biomass capacity in 2010, ending the year with 1.3 GW,
but it nearly doubled its biogas capacity in 2009 to 0.05 GW and
increased it a further 37% in 2010 to 0.07 GW. Malaysia is seeing
significant biogas expansion as well.
There is also increasing interest in Africa and the Middle East,
where several countries including Cameroon, Kenya, Tanzania, and
Uganda have existing biomass capacity or development plans.
GEOTHERMAL POWER
Since 2005, significant additions of geothermal electric capacity
have occurred in Iceland, Indonesia, New Zealand, the US, and
Turkey, and global power production has increased more than 20%.
Countries with lower capacity levels but high growth rates during
this period include El Salvador (35%), Guatemala (58%), Papua New
Guinea (more than 800%), and Portugal (81%). By the end of 2010,
global installations came to over 11 GW, up an estimated 240 MW
from 2009, generating about 67.2 TWh.
Although geothermal developments slowed in 2010 relative to
2009, the lull was expected to be temporary. The lack of available
drilling rigs (due to competition with the oil and gas industry) has
hindered developers, while the lack of a qualified workforce has
presented problems in Kenya and elsewhere.
The three largest plants commissioned in 2010 were in New
Zealand, Italy and Kenya. The addition in Kenya increased the
plants capacity to 0.1 GW, making it the largest in Africa.
__________
________
HYDROELECTRICITY
Currently in use in some 150 countries, global hydropower
production increased more than 5% in 2010 due greatly to new
capacity and wet weather in China and represented about 16%
of global electricity production. An estimated 30 GW was added
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Complete Solar
Instrumentation
& Control
Systems
HXS10 Solar
Tracking Controller
Also available
DCS Supervisory Control
AD91104
www.hxs10.com
____________________
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A VIEW FROM
THE TOP
BRAZILS RENEWABLE
ENERGY SUCCESS STORY
With almost half of its energy supply generated by renewable sources,
Brazil increasingly looks like a positive example for the rest of the world.
Robin Yapp reports from So Paulo.
here is an old joke that says Brazil is the country of the future and always will be. But with
rapid economic growth, the government claiming that some 40 million people have been
lifted out of poverty in the past decade and the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics in Rio de
Janeiro on the horizon, it seems the joke is about to fall flat. Brazils time has arrived and the
country of sun, sea and samba is keen to showcase itself to the world as a positive example
of how to exploit renewable energy sources as well as how to perform on the football pitch.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, up to 77% of the worlds
energy needs could potentially be supplied from renewable sources by 2050, despite the
current figure being a much more modest 13%.
Many heads of government around the world wondering how they can play their part in
such a dramatic transformation could be forgiven for looking enviously at Brazil, where the
figure already stood at 44.8% in 2010 and is forecast to rise to 46.3% in 2020.
While this increase may seem small in percentage terms, it fails to take into account the
huge growth that will be seen in the countrys raw energy demands and the fact that the next
decade could see the foundations laid for renewable energy to quickly become even more
dominant in the years that follow.
A GROWING DEMAND FOR ENERGY
In the next decade demand for energy is expected to increase by around 60% in Brazil, fuelled
by millions of people spending more on consumer goods for their homes and cars, economic
growth continuing to outstrip that seen in developed nations and heavy spending to improve
infrastructure ahead of the two greatest sporting shows on earth.
However, Brazil has also committed to reducing its CO2 emissions by between 36% and
39% by 2020, making it vital that the country concentrates on clean sources of energy.
Investment of around BRL190 billion (US$122.6 billion) is needed for Brazil to meet the
challenge, according to a 10-year energy plan recently published by EPE, Brazils Energy
Research Company, which conducts research for the Ministry of Mines and Energy. Of this,
around BRL100 billion ($63.8 billion) will go towards renewable projects not yet contracted,
55% on large hydropower and 45% on wind, biomass and small hydro.
In terms of electricity Brazil already meets 83% of its needs from renewable means,
gaining recognition from the Washington-based Pew Environment
Group as one of the lowest carbon electricity matrices
in the world.
At present electricity consumption per person per
year stands at just 560 kWh in Brazil. This compares
with some 1900 kWh in the UK and more
than 4500 kWh in the US. But, faced with
on-going development, the country
now needs to increase the installed
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potential of the national grid from the 110 GW at the end of last year
to 171 GW by the end of 2020.
The EPE report details some of the reasons why Brazil needs a
rapid expansion of its ability to produce electricity.
The population of South Americas biggest country is expected
to rise from 191.5 million in 2010 to 205 million in 2020, while the
number of new homes will also increase by around 15 million over
the period to hit 75.5 million as more people live alone.
A consumer spending boom is expected to see the average
number of televisions per home rise from 1.37 to 1.71, the proportion
of homes with washing machines increase from 64% to 74% and
the proportion with air conditioning to rise seven percentage points
to 27%. The 4% of Brazilian homes that do not currently house a
refrigerator are all expected to have one by the start of the 2020s.
Production of steel in Brazil could double in the next decade
with cement and aluminium also likely to rise almost two-fold. The
industrial and transport sectors will account for two thirds of the
countrys total energy demand in 2020.
Electricity shortages have long plagued the Brazilian economy
but President Dilma Rousseff knows the country cannot afford to
suffer more blackouts when the eyes of the world are on the nation
in the coming years.
But there are a variety of reasons to be optimistic. Given the
substantial investment from both within Brazil and overseas, the
nations vast and almost entirely untapped wind potential is also
beginning to attract attention to the fact that few other countries are
as well-blessed in terms of solar power prospects.
HYDROPOWER
At present large-scale hydropower looms largest in meeting Brazils
needs. The 10-year plan predicts installed capacity from such plants
will rise from just under 85 GW at present to more than 115 GW.
The principal new hydropower project is the 11,233 MW Belo
Monte dam to be built on the River Xingu in the state of Par in the
Amazon, which is due to start generating power in January 2015
with its full potential online by January 2019.
It will be capable of supplying enough power to serve 18 million
homes housing 60 million people, according to EPE, though in
reality much of its output is likely to go towards industry.
Belo Monte, to be built through a public-private partnership
led by the company Norte Energia, has been described by Edison
Lobo, Brazils Energy Minister, as the jewel in the crown of the
countrys development programme and will be the worlds third
biggest such plant. But it has proved highly controversial due to
claims that it will displace indigenous groups as well as the fact that
it will achieve less than 30% of its capacity during the dry season.
EPE insists that the cost to consumers of meeting the increased
demand for electricity through only wind and biomass would be
double that of energy produced by Belo Monte and that the dam
will help Brazil maintain one of the cleanest energy matrices of all
idustrialised countries.
WIND POWER
Despite the installation of Belo Monte and various other hydroelectric
plants, the proportion of Brazils electricity supply coming from
hydropower will be expected to actually fall from 75% of the total in
2010 to some 67% in 2020.
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Meanwhile, other renewable sources, such as biomass, smallscale hydropower and, principally, wind will see the 9 GW they
accounted for last year triple to 27 GW in 2020. This will take their
contribution to the countrys electricity supply from 8% to 16%,
keeping the overall contribution of renewables to electricity at 83%.
By far the biggest jump in contributions will come from wind
power, which currently supplies around 1% of Brazils electricity but
would supply 7% by 2020 under the current plans.
Despite its 9650 km of Atlantic coastline and the fact that much
of its northeast is blessed with some of the strongest and most
consistent winds in the world, Brazil only reached 1 GW of wind
power in May of this year.
The EPE plan, which is currently out for consultation, predicts
that the figure will hit 12 GW by 2020 but Pedro Perrelli, executive
director of the Brazilian Wind Energy Association (ABE Elica), feels
this forecast is highly conservative.
We are actually expecting almost double that, around 22 GW,
he said. What the wind industry is asking of the government,
in order to consolidate as a self-sustaining industry, is around
2000 MW to 2500 MW of contracts per year. Perrelli added: 12
GW [by 2020] is not enough to sustain a full industry, saying: Wind
power in Brazil is less than five years old, really. In 2005 we had
only 29 MW installed and now we have 1070 MW. We think we
understand in this planning that EPE is playing safe.
In 2001 when Brazils first wind atlas was published, the
countrys wind power potential was estimated to be 143 GW at
50 metres. New measurements looking at 80100 metres now
suggest that the true potential is in fact 350 GW.
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Over half of the investment in Brazils 10-year energy plan will be spent on hydropower FOTOPEDIA/KEVIN.J
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FUTURE POTENTIAL
Looking beyond the current decade-long plan, Fiuza and Tolmasquim
agree that one of Brazils best-known attractions the sun will also
have a huge part to play in future energy assessments.
Fiuza said he has seen unpublished estimates suggesting
solar potential in Brazil could be four or five times the wind power
potential and he expects his company to be heavily involved in
exploiting it as the costs of doing so come down.
The solar potential for Brazil is huge, he said. We have to
explore wind sources that are cheaper in the first instance and think
about solar in four or five years.
Tolmasquim agrees: We are probably not going to use all the
hydro potential in the Amazon because we have to balance the
potential with the environment. He adds: The cost of solar power
is reducing very quickly in the world, so probably after 2020 it will be
very important in Brazil.
If developers cant wait that long, then there are clearly many
other emerging opportunities with significant plays available in the
wind, and bioenergy sectors particularly. Brazil is evidently a country
of the future, and thats no joke.
Robin Yapp is the Brazil correspondent for The Daily Telegraph.
___________
___________
e-mail: robin.yapp@hotmail.com
This article is available on-line. To comment on it or forward it to
a colleague, visit: www.RenewableEnergyWorld.com
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SINGLE-AXIS TRACKERS
Single-axis tracking is one of the most straightforward ways to
improve the potential performance of a commercial solar installation.
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* In a long-term study conducted by the FraunhoferInstitute the SCHOTT Solar modules still achieved over
90% of their original performance even after 25 years.
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Stability
Our solar modules withstand highest wind
and snow loads of up to 5.4 kN/m2 (minimum
requirement pursuant to IEC 61215: 2.4 kN/m2).
Simple handling
Sovello Pure Power solar modules are robust and
lightweight modules.
Sustainability
Sovello builds the worlds most sustainable modules
with the shortest energy amortisation time.
Warranty
We offer a 10-year warranty on the workmanship
and also guarrantee more than 90 % (80 %) of the
nominal power after 10 (25) years.
High earnings
100% positive output tolerance and best
specific energy yield.
o
IMG / SovellEC
26. EU PVS
Hamburg
hall B6
stand A37
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-PPLJOHGPSBOPQUJNBMTPMVUJPOGPSTUBOEBMPOFTZTUFNT
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'SPNUIF
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EIZCSJET
"$DPVQMF
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8JUIUIF4.".VMUJDMVTUFS#PYZPVBSFPOUIFTBGFTJEF1MBOBOECVJMETUBOEBMPOFTZTUFNT
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____________
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TRANSFORMING
PROFITS
ERR TOWARD EFFICIENCY
Wind farms must be designed to maximise generation available for sale while
minimising operating costs. Robert Berman shows that properly optimised
low-core-loss transformers can boost efficiency and profits.
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The weak link in most wind farm designs is often not the turbine
but the transformer
BUNDESVERBAND WINDENERGIE E.V.
and $297 in PTC or REPI revenue. The greatest change in the total
increase in cash flow of $1613 is a reduction in purchased power
of $749 at the backup power rate. Even without the savings in backup
power, the increase in cash flow is $864, and the increase in profits
is $553 ($1302 with savings in backup power).
The results are even more striking in areas where carbon charges
would apply. The reduction in the carbon footprint is between nine
and 10 tonnes per turbine per year. Assuming a carbon charge of
$25/tonne, the additional renewable energy available to displace
fossil generation would be worth $214 in carbon credits.
Similar benefits are available at higher energy prices and under
moderate and heavy wind conditions. The results under medium
and high energy prices show that as wind conditions improve
from light to heavy, the amount of additional generation available
for sale increases and the relative amount of time the turbine is
idle decreases. However, the benefits of a low-core-loss step-up
transformer are still significant, even as the importance of purchased
power savings declines. That is, the additional sales revenue from the
lower operating cost of the low-core-loss amorphous transformer
alone substantially increases profitability. Indeed, the increase in
the subsidy alone exceeds the additional cost of the transformer,
providing the increased benefits at no additional cost.
SUB-OPTIMISATION RISKS
As a check on the robustness and reliability of these analytical
results, their sensitivity to estimates of future prices was calculated.
What is the cost of being wrong? What if energy prices materialise
that are higher or lower than anticipated? Is a conservative strategy
one that errs on the side of being too efficient or one that avoids
spending too much? As a good rule of thumb: when in doubt, err
on the side of greater efficiency.
Sensitivity analyses considered the consequences of three suboptimal decisions:
1. Low energy prices for the design when medium energy prices
actually emerge;
2. Medium energy prices for the design when high energy prices
actually emerge; and
3. High energy prices for the design when medium energy prices
actually emerge.
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www.siemens.com/energy/eneas-wind2011
E50001-E720-F297-X-4A00
_____________________________________________
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The sensitivity analysis does not alter the conclusion that there is
no combination of energy price and wind condition under which the
additional cost of the low-core-loss amorphous transformer does
not substantially improve profitability. The results support the need
to err on the side of greater efficiency, especially when interest rates
are in the low to moderate range, but they do not necessarily support
a recommendation to always buy the most efficient transformer that
can be constructed, except at very low interest rates.
Central Energy
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Repairing for the environment,
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40 years experience in electro-mechanical
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In depth fault diagnosis & on-line job tracking
20 tonne in house lifting capacity
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e info@gocentral.co.uk 24hr Customer Service Line 0151 546 6000 _________
gocentral.co.uk
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0.5 m 10 kHz 12 20 m
Temposonics sensors detect positions with a resolution of 0.5 m and
sample rates up to 10 kHz while offering 12 selectable analog or digital
outputs. All benets are available on stroke lengths up to 20 m.
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DOWN TO
EARTH ENERGY
HEAT PUMPS ON THE RISE
In the second of our two-part feature on the latest developments in geothermal
energy, Chris Webb looks at ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) and
their relatives. Smaller, more compact and closer to the surface, heat pump
technology offers a novel route to renewable energy at domestic, commercial
and industrial scale.
Ground source heat pumps are one of the most advanced technologies available for space heating, hot water and cooling
CEMENTATION SKANSKA
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CO-LOCATED WITH:
DIVERSE
SOLUTIONS
FOR THE
REGIONS
RENEWABLES
INDUSTRY
CHALLENGES
OWNED AND
PRODUCED BY:
SPONSORS:
SUPPORTING ORGANISATIONS
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cages. Once the piles are constructed these loops are linked to
further plastic pipes embedded in the concrete floors, walls or
ducting within the building, leading to a heat pump in the plant room.
The system has been used at Neo Bankside, a residential
development in Southwark, London, consisting of four individual
multi-storey buildings ranging in height from six to 24 storeys. These
buildings contain a total of 197 apartments and penthouses and
1044 m2 of ground floor retail units. The site is located close to the
river Thames and adjacent to the Tate Modern art gallery. Around the
circumference of the development, Cementation constructed over
400 linear metres of hard firm secant wall using a continuous flight
auger technique to form a single storey basement.
Out of the 176 piles used in this construction, 130 were
designated energy piles, and have had geothermal loops installed
within. These piles contain several loops, the number of which
depends on the diameter of the pile. The bigger the pile, the more
geothermal capacity and hence the greater the number of loops that
can be installed. The piles form an integral part of the developments
ground source heating and cooling system. In order to gain maximum
output from the piles, the geothermal loops had to be installed to the
full depth of the bore.
ENERGY PILES
Cementation Skanska is a contractor offering an innovative process
which uses foundation piles to transport and store geothermal
energy from the surrounding ground. Creating an energy pile is a
relatively simple process involving the introduction of geothermal
pipework into the pile. Each flexible plastic loop (generally one tube
down and the return tube back up) is fitted to the pile reinforcement
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THE PERILS OF
PROTECTIONISM
MANDATES MAY PROVE
COUNTERPRODUCTIVE
A mixture of volatile oil prices and new environmental legislation points
to renewable energy enjoying a period of unparalleled worldwide
growth over the next 10 years. But, reports Richard Baillie, various
forms of protectionism threaten to halt the industry and prevent it from
realising its full potential.
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sector has created more than 13,000 jobs and is on track to reach
50,000 by the end of 2012.
Ontario has also managed to attract significant manufacturing
investment due to its local content requirements stipulating that
around 50%60% of solar modules use locally produced parts.
This has encouraged solar companies like Silfab and Canadian
Solar to set up module plants while companies including Enphase,
Schneider and SMA have established inverter plants in the province.
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POLARIS PROVIDES AN
INTELLIGENT GATEWAY
INTO ITALYS PV MARKET
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Solar panel manufacturer Abound Solar benefited from a $400 million loan guarantee from the US Department of Energy
ABOUND SOLAR/SOLARONE
developers that won projects there will seek local funding, and the
Brazilian national development bank only provides financing if a
certain percentage of the content is produced locally, meaning that
the local requirement is still effectively in place.
PROTECTIONISM IN THE WIND SECTOR
Lobbying the European Commission to recognise international
opportunities for discussion of the elimination of tariffs and non-tariff
barriers to wind and other renewables, comes the European Wind
Energy Association (EWEA), says its policy director, Justin Wilkes.
The wind industry has also been promoting the adoption of
policies such as Sustainable Energy Free Trade Areas (SEFTA) or
an Environmental Goods and Services Agreement (EGSA), both
of which offer free trade in renewable energy technologies, among
other measures.
We have been working closely with Vestas and other leaders in
the green economy to open up trade in technologies and services
that support the fight against climate change, said Thaddeus J.
Burns, GEs senior counsel for intellectual property and trade. We
support an EGSA that lowers tariffs and opens up markets.
Likewise, Vestas wants governments to commit to reducing the
costs they impose on environmental goods and services, said Michael
Zarin, the companys director of government relations. Removing or
at least substantially lowering these barriers would provide both an
important contribution to global climate change goals and a unique
opportunity for a sustainable, green-growth European business
model, he said.
PROTECTIONISM IN EUROPE
The fear is that protectionism could substantially slow the transition
to a low carbon economy. One area of concern in this regard is the
EUs Renewable Energy Directive, which contains a number of trade
barriers that could not only land the Union in court but could also
slow Europes shift from fossil fuels.
The Directive is a central aspect of the EUs 20/20/20 strategy
to combat climate change, and it is also a much-vaunted element
of other policy strategies such as steering the Common Agricultural
Policy (CAP) towards energy crops to make it more market-oriented.
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Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) shows that the EUs biofuels policy
clearly violates WTO principles and rules, and is unlikely to qualify
under any of the GATT criteria for exceptional treatment.
QUALIFIED SUCCESS
With protectionism a fact of life around the globe, many will question
whether anything can be done about it unless, as in California
and possibly Ontario, the political will exists to remove barriers to
renewable energy.
There have been some notable victories in resolving trade
disputes in recent months, although reading too much into such
victories could possibly be misleading.
For example, in June of this year US trade representative Ron
Kirk announced that subsidies for wind power manufacturers
given by the Chinese government from a public fund to domestic
companies would be discontinued.
The fund, which provided grants worth between US$6.7 million
and $22.5 million, had become a contentious issue between China
and the US, with the latter charging that the grants violated Article
3.1 of the Subsidies and Countervailing Measures Agreement
because they were contingent upon the use of local input.
We challenged these subsidies so that American manufacturers
can produce wind turbine components here in the US and sell them
in China. That supports well-paying jobs here at home, said Kirk,
despite reports that the move was more a political gesture than a
first step towards a more free-market approach by the Chinese.
This view was echoed by EWEA, which urged China to go
further in its efforts to create a fair market. The government of China
needs to take further steps in order to eliminate other discriminatory
practices which favour Chinese wind turbine manufacturers over
non-Chinese manufacturers, said EWEA.
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A GOOD TIME
TO BE GREEN
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Investors Day:
Investing in the future
Date: Tuesday 6 September, 9:30-17:30
Followed by a networking cocktail
Location: Hamburg Messe
Hall B2G Booth C1, EPIA Industry Area
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Avjets CEO moved from LEDs into offshore wind, and is now
working to commercialise a low-foot print biofuel refining system
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AARON HALL
We have been able to attract amazing talent recently from
outside of renewable energy because of the excitement
that surrounds this industry. So if you are starting up a new
company, it should be relatively easy to find talent. In some
cases that talent may bring additional resources, like capital or
relationships to those who have capital. If I were starting up a
new company, I would think about finding mature, successful
individuals that are in other spaces.
Aaron Hall, president, Borrego Solar
MATT CASPARI
Set out a clear vision for where you want your company to
be in one year and in five years, and figure out how you are
going to fund that growth. The path that I chose with Aurora,
to grow with venture capital, is not suitable for the vast
majority of businesses, but fit our opportunity well as were
aiming to create a multi-billion dollar company which requires
a significant amount of high-risk capital. Determine what
sources of capital are most suitable for your business and
pursue them aggressively. Most importantly, build a company
that you are passionate about and that is relevant.
Matt Caspari, founder, Aurora Algae
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DON EVANS
Wall Street, they dont just kick the tyres, they take the tyre
apart. If you are an operator whose interest is in taking oil
from French fries to operate a school bus, they dont want to
deal with you. They are interested in technology that enables
you to do some rather remarkable things, and they want to
see that you can you multiply the use of your technology in a
reasonable period of time.
Don Evans, CEO and chairman, Avjet Biotech
PAUL WICKBERG
Have patience. When you are providing alternative solutions
that are more effective from an environmental point of view, it
is always a tough uphill battle against the existing technology.
If there were quick wins and if it were easy, everyone would
be doing it. Never skimp on your first four or five people. The
most successful entrepreneurial companies get the very best
people in early, not later.
Paul Wickberg, president and CEO, SOL
Like Shugar, Evans sees a big picture value in his work. The world
has come to depend upon petroleum and coal as energy resources.
They are not clean and they are certainly not inexhaustible, he says,
adding that 70% of the fuel used by the US military is from people
who do not like us.
Paul Wickberg is president and CEO of SOL, a Florida-based
company that manufactures solar-powered outdoor LED lights.
Before joining SOL this year, Wickberg built enterprises and various
product lines for energy management and control technologies and
water conservation. He sums up what its like to be a green energy
entrepreneur when he talks to his kids about choosing a career. I tell
them: keep in the back of your mind you are going to have to explain
to somebody someday what your career is about. Everything Ive
ever done is tied to sustainability. It provides me with satisfaction
to know that all of those hours resulted in good for my employees,
investors and the world in general.
Or, as Shugar puts it, It is great to build a company because
you want to make a lot of money. That is fine on its own level.
But it is so much more powerful when you want to accomplish
something compelling. The industry that is responsible for the
largest environmental degradation is power. We would like to
solve that problem.
Elisa Wood is a US correspondent for Renewable Energy World.
e-mail: rew@pennwell.com
This article is available on-line. To comment on it or forward it to
a colleague, visit: www.RenewableEnergyWorld.com
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www.asiasolarexpoevent.com
_______________________________
International
Amanda Kevan
T: +44 (0) 1992 656 645
E: amandak@pennwell.com
E: christianc@pennwell.com
Virginia Willis
T: +44 (0) 1992 656 663
E: virginiaw@pennwell.com
Presented By:
International Organizer:
Organized By:
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SOLAR NAVIGATING
TRENDS IN SOLAR
HEATING AND COOLING
A new analysis of the global solar market reveals a mixed bag of
development, with some countries surging while others are relatively
stagnant in the face of uncertain support. Brbel Epp outlines key
findings from the latest ISOL Navigator survey.
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17%
YIELD
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MAINTAINING
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intervention and the third is only for heavy lift, we use a vessel,
explains Srivastava.
Backup systems are also important in allowing the expansion
of planned maintenance, with systems designed for offshore often
containing several layers of safeguards to ensure that a turbine can
continue running, even if only partially, in the event of a failure.
Speaking about its M5000 offshore turbine, Sebastien HitaPerona, products director at Areva, said: We have a high redundancy
of components. This way we can optimise preventive and corrective
maintenance, if any, and we can schedule the operation and
maintenance and optimise the cost for our customer.
ACCESS TO OFFSHORE WIND FARMS
The offshore marine environment is a harsh one, with a host of
logistical and safety issues that onshore developers do not have
to contend with. Taking the UK as an example, a quick look at
the figures shows the need for access solutions that the massive
expansion of offshore will bring.
Installing 32 GW of wind turbines by 2020 will mean transporting
and maintaining around 6400 turbines with their accompanying
blades, monopiles and jackets, along with the cables and related
transmission systems. This will require a major scale-up of
operations. For example, offshore wind turbines currently require
about six site visits per year. Even assuming this can be reduced to
three visits per year in future, 6400 5 MW turbines will need some
19,200 offshore visits per year, either by boat or helicopter or some
other means. That is a lot of traffic. And then the people need to get
onto the turbine. Assuming two people are transfered on and off
on each visit, that means four transfers per visit or 210 per day.
Systems will need to be developed to ensure the safety of those
personnel in potentially rough conditions.
As well as more journeys, the waves too are likely to be higher
in the upcoming offshore wind zones, with the need to work farther
from the coast and in deeper waters. Some of the UKs Round 3
wind farms are up to 65 km offshore, and most are in more than
30 metres of water. At the moment, most transfers are to monopile
OFFSHORE
ACCELERATOR
Operations and maintenance have been recognised as key
areas of future cost reductions, and for that reason they have
been included as part of the Carbon Trusts Offshore Wind
Accelerator (OWA). The OWA has been conceived as a
means of spurring innovation in a range of key areas, such as
foundations, transmission, array layouts and access to offshore
sites. Beginning in 2010, the Trust began a competition to find
new technologies and ideas to assist access to offshore wind
farms and so help to lower installation and O&M costs. More
than 400 submissions were received from countries all over
the world, covering a range of topics. So far, 13 have been
selected to receive funding. An announcement on the winners
is expected before the end of 2011.
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Microns matter
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___________________
As the biggest independent gearbox specialist, with more than 85 years of in-house
manufacturing experience, we design and produce innovative gearboxes and drive
trains. Our process knowledge and control are second to none and the use of
advanced measuring techniques enables us to accurately verify and optimize our gears.
In an industry with a strong focus on the reduction of the kWh cost of renewable
energy, we ensure that we meet our customers needs to where microns matter.
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SUPPORT SERVICES
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NEW SENSORS
FOR BLADES
Developing sensors to monitor performance and predict faults
in offshore wind generators is a complex business. In 2008 Ris
DTU, the Danish National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy,
published a report looking at remote monitoring of offshore
wind blades, where there was a gap in the sensor market. The
aim was to develop systems to report faults to blades, but
also to provide information on the state of the blade itself and
so inform future maintenance needs. Several methods were
outlined for monitoring blades, including acoustic sensing and
the use of fibre-optics to determine cracks, and measure the
shape of the blades to uncover deformities. Alongside this
sensor testing, much research was conducted into the most
common types of faults and distortions in wind turbine blades.
In 2010 Ris announced it was working on a Smart Embedded
Sensor System to help commercialise this research.
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www.ewea.org/offshore2011
______________________________
Dont miss this brilliant business opportunity. Join over 7,000 professionals in shaping
the offshore landscape of tomorrows energy future.
SUPPORTED BY:
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ORGANISED BY:
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RIPE FOR
RENEWABLES
ABUNDANT RESOURCES,
ATTRACTIVE POLICIES
Energy sector development has spurred economic growth in Malaysia.
Tildy Bayar looks at the policy, markets, issues and key players in the
countrys rapidly expanding renewable energy market.
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Going offshore...
Think SLIM.
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www.cgglobal.com ___________
www.nomex.com belgium@cgglobal.com
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Co Located With:
SWITCHING ON INDIAS
GREEN POWER FUTURE
CALL FOR PAPERS
SUBMISSIONS CLOSE 14 OCTOBER
Renewable Energy World India invites you to submit an abstract for
the Renewable Energy World India 2012 conference as it returns
to New Delhi in 2012 with co-located events HydroVision India and
POWER-GEN India & Central Asia for its 3rd successive year under
the theme Switching on Indias Green Power Future
Spanning over three days and across two tracks, Renewable Energy
World India 2012 is a key forum for senior executives and industry
leaders from across the globe to address important issues facing
the renewable industry as well as the latest, solar, wind, geothermal
and bioenergy projects and technologies.
STRATEGIC TRACK
Project Financing
Domestic/Export Market Development
Attracting Domestic & Foreign Investment
International & Local Incentive Programmes
National Energy Policy Development
TECHNICAL TRACK
Biomass/Biofuels/Bioliquids
Geothermal & Heat Pumps
Hybrid Power Plants
Biological Waste-to-Energy
Emerging Renewables
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS OPPORTUNITY AND REACH
OUT TO THE INDUSTRYS KEY DECISION MAKERS AT
RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD INDIA 2012.
Event Organizers
Supporting
Organization
Amy Nash
Conference Manager
T: +44 (0) 1992 656 621
F: +44 (0) 1992 656 700
E: amyn@pennwell.com
Mukesh Pandhya
Exhibit Sales Manager (India)
Inter Ads Pvt. Ltd
T: +91 124 4524 200
F: +91 124 4381 162
E: info@interadsindia.com
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that such investment would disrupt the daily running of their plants,
and so see it as risky. Leong also believes that many palm oil millers
are simply not interested in renewable energy.
At the current rate of 21sen/kWh (7 US cents/kWh) TNB is
buying renewable energy, the potential of electricity sales is worth
RM394.8 million (US$XX million). Upon implementation of the feed-in
tariff system, the higher renewable energy purchase price could be
an added incentive for palm oil millers to convert their POME biogas
to electricity, Leong apparently said.
THE FUTURE FOR RENEWABLES
April 2011 saw Malaysia adopt an Advanced Renewable Tariffs
system and further renewable energy targets. A Renewable Energy
bill (RE Bill) and a Bill for Sustainable Development Authority (SEDA
Bill) were passed by the House of Representatives on 28 April, and
a 1% feed-in tariff (FiT), which will pay into a renewable energy fund,
will be effective as REW goes to press in September 2011. Among
the current eligible resources for the FiT programme are biomass,
biogas, mini-hydropower and solar energy.
Like successful policies elsewhere, the Malaysian tariff
differentiates by technology and derives tariffs based on the cost of
generation. The tariffs have apparently been received enthusiastically.
Indeed, projects currently in the planning stages includes a move
by EQ Solar Technology International Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Chinas
Hangzhou Energy Solar Co. Ltd, which intends to manufacture solar
modules, cells and wafers in Senai Hi-Tech Park in the southern
state of Johor. According to EQ, it is planning to invest RM1.6 billion
($500 million) in the project which will have a peak annual production
of 50 MW of modules, rising eventually to 200 MW.
Meanwhile, Berjaya Corp Bhds (BCorp) subsidiary Berjaya Solar
Sdn Bhd plans to invest RM180 million ($61 million) in a 10 MW PV
plant at Bukit Tagar, Selangor, on the west coast. BCorp said the
plant is a precursor to its proposed 50 MW PV plant.
Also in the pipeline are the Hulu Terengganu (250 MW) and
Ulu Jelai (372 MW) hydro projects, a pilot 5 MW solar PV project in
Putrajaya, and projects encompassing 51 biogas plants by plantation
conglomerate Felda Holdings Bhd which will use biomass waste
including empty fruit bunches and palm oil mill effluent.
MOVING FORWARD
With an attractive FiT rate and abundant natural resources,
Malaysia is ripe for foreign investment in renewable energy projects.
Renewable power solutions could help the country avoid becoming
a net fuel importer in the next 30 years, reduce its carbon emissions
and make a difference to rural quality of life. However, stakeholders
in the development process need to plan carefully for the long term in
order to avoid simply replacing one short-term problem with another.
Careful and responsible development which addresses sustainability
issues will prove more profitable in the long term.
Tildy Bayar is a freelance journalist specialising in the energy
sector.
e-mail: rew@pennwell.com
This article is available on-line. To comment on it or forward it to
a colleague, visit: www.RenewableEnergyWorld.com
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Company Results
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Company Results
7 t h E U R O P E A N C O N F E R E N C E 2 0 11
GREEN POWER
MARKETING
6 and 7 October 2011
Zurich, Switzerland
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Register and take advantage of both shows; attend any pre-conference workshops and/or conference sessions and
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THE LAST
WORD
WATER AND RENEWABLES
Collaborative Efforts
Some states are already taking a lead. Virginia, for example, formed
the Virginia Israel Advisory Board to recruit Israeli clean and renewable
energy technology companies to Virginia, and to assist those firms
in commercialising their technologies and services. The CleanTech
Gateway USA Program, a joint endeavour among the Advisory
Board, Dominion Energy, and the Dominion Resources GreenTech
Commercialization Center recently did just that, introducing several
Israeli companies to technical, financial and marketing experts
in Virginia.
Due to similar semi-arid climates and challenges in water and
other resource conservation, Israeli water, renewable energy and
clean technology companies have also been working with their
counterparts in New Mexico to exchange information, encourage
joint economic development, expand trade and solidify social and
economic ties between the two regions.
Meanwhile the federal government is bringing the states together
on joint projects. The Water Technology Innovation Cluster (WTIC) is a
joint effort of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Small
Business Administration. Its mission is to promote the development of
technologies to protect Americas waters. Similar to the Silicon Valley
model of concentrating high-tech industries in the same geographic
space, the WTIC would group water technology companies in the
Technology Developments
New technologies are emerging in old areas. Many utilities are
meeting the demand for more water by upgrading the efficiency of
their infrastructure and creating a water smart grid much like the one
that is transforming the worlds electric power system. And the two
have much in common. Both are critical to support societal needs,
yet they are sprawling, aging and apparently haphazardly planned.
And although there is some intelligence at the nodes with each of
these networks, the systems are not very effectively networked.
One of the most important strategies for water utilities will be
the installation of smart water meters on customers premises.
Pike Research, a consulting firm based in Boulder, Colorado, that
provides analysis of global clean technology markets, expects 31.8
million of these units to be installed by 2016, up from 8 million in
2010. According to this research, the annual market revenues for
smart water meters will be expected to reach US$856 million by the
end of 2016, a 110% increase over 2010 levels. In addition, global
investment in smart water meters for the years 2010 to 2016 will
total $4.2 billion, according to Pike. Other technologies also under
consideration include advanced sensor networks and automation.
Considerable energy is invested in water production, treatment,
distribution and reuse, but current water systems do not
comprehensively measure usage in real time. Without measurement,
there are no data on which to base grid management. The electric
smart grid leverages the proliferation of measurement points,
collecting large amounts of data. Water networks do not. But a
data revolution in the water space has begun. In fact, analysing
available flow and pressure data to determine anomalies in real time,
or scheduling pumps and valves according to energy consumption
peaks and lows, is already part of the smart water solution today. We
are seeing signs of a change, and experts and analysts have finally
acknowledged the intersection of water and information technology.
In addition to water conservation technologies and a water smart
grid, scientists are looking to promising water-to-energy technologies,
such as harnessing wave and tidal energy to generate power. These
attempts have historically suffered from a threshold problem low
efficiency. However, new technologies have finally been successful in
effectively capturing the driving force in a wave cycle to create energy.
This technology manipulates a buoys movement in a wave cycle to
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Co Located With:
SWITCHING ON INDIAS
HYDRO POWER FUTURE
CALL FOR PAPERS - SUBMISSIONS CLOSE 14 OCTOBER 2011
HydroVision India invites you to submit an abstract for the HydroVision India 2012 conference as it
returns to New Delhi in 2012 with co-located events HydroVision India and POWER-GEN India &
Central Asia for its 2nd successive year under the theme (Switching on Indias Hydro Power Future).
Spanning over three days and across two tracks, HydroVision India 2012 is a key forum for senior
executives and industry leaders from across the globe to address important issues facing the
hydropower industry and new hydropower projects and technologies.
Take advantage of this opportunity and reach out to the industrys key decision makers at
HydroVision India 2012.
To submit your abstract for the conference, or for further information participating as a delegate or
speaker at HydroVision India 2012, visit www.hydrovisionindia.com
Event Organizers
Supporting Organization
WWW.HYDROVISIONINDIA.COM
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Intersolar China
Beijing, China
79 December 2011
MMI (Shanghai) Pvt Ltd, Solar
Promotion International GmbH,
Freiburg Management and Marketing
International GmbH, Solar Promotion
International GmbH, Kiehnlestr. 16,
75172 Pforzheim, Germany
T: +49 7 231 585 980
F: +49 7 231 585 9828
E: info@intersolarchina.com
W: www.intersolarchina.com
Intersolar India
Mumbai, India
1416 December
MMI India Pvt Ltd, Solar Promotion
International GmbH, Freiburg
Management and Marketing
International GmbH, MMI India Pvt
Ltd, 5th Floor, Lalani Aura, 34th Road,
Khar West, Mumbai 400 052, India
T: +91 22 4255 4700
F: +91 22 4255 4719
E: info@mmi-india.in
W: www.intersolar.in
World Future Energy Summit
Abu Dhabi, UAE
1619 January 2012
Reed Exhibitions Middle East
PO Box 60799, Abu Dhabi, UAE
T: +971 2 444 6113
F: +971 2 444 3768
E: ria.andaya@reedexpo.ae
W: www.worldfutureenergysummit.
com
__
Renewable Energy World North
America Conference & Expo 2012
California, USA
1416 February 2012
PennWell International, Sarah Jantz,
1421 S. Sheridan Road, Tulsa,
Oklahoma 74112, USA
T: +1 918 831 9430
F: +1 918 831 9729
E: sarahj@pennwell.com
W: _______________
www.renewableenergyworldevents.com
______
ExpoSolar 2012
Kintex, Korea
1517 February 2012
13th floor Shinhan DM building, 33-1
Mapo-dong, Mapo-gu, Seoul, 121708, Korea
T: +82 2 718 6931
F: +82 2 715 8245
E: expo@infothe.com
W: www.exposolar.org/2012/
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DIARY
HydroVision Russia
Moscow, Russia
57 March 2012
PennWell International, Crispin
Coulson, The Water Tower, Gun
Powder Mill, Powdermill Lane,
Waltham Abbey, Essex EN9 1BN, UK
T: +44 1992 656 646
F: +44 1992 656 700
E: crispinc@pennwell.com
W: www.hydrovision-russia.com
Hydrovision India
New Delhi, India
1921 April 2012
PennWell International, Amanda
Kevan, The Water Tower, Gun Powder
Mill, Powdermill Lane, Waltham
Abbey, Essex EN9 1BN, UK
T: +44 1992 656 645
F: +44 1992 656 700
E: amandak@pennwell.com
W: www.hydropowerindia.com
Sustainabilitylive!
Birmingham, UK
2224 May 2012
Faversham House Group Ltd
Jordana Gavin, Faversham House,
232a Addington Road, South
Croydon, Surrey CR2 8LE, UK
T: Tel: +44 20 8651 7088
E: jordana.gavin@fav-house.com
W: www.sustainabilitylive.com
WINDPOWER 2012
36 June 2012
Atlanta, Georgia, USA
American Wind Energy Association
1501 M Street NW, Suite 1000 |
Washington, DC 20005 USA
T: 202.383.2500
F: 202.383.2505
E: windmail@awea.org
W: www.windpowerexpo.org
Advertisers index
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CG HOLDINGS BELGIUM NV REGISTERED
OFFICE
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DRESSER RAND
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EUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY
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6-7, 81
GAMESA CORPORACION TECNOLOGIA
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NV
77
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HYDROVISION INTERNATIONAL
CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 2012
90
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HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES CO., LTD. 3, 5
IBC SOLAR AG
58
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KG
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MULTI-CONTACT AG
IFC
NEXANS
46
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74
POLARIS ENERGY
61
POWER-GEN AFRICA CONFERENCE &
EXHIBITION 2012
52
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CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 2012
56
RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD INDIA
CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 2012
84
RISO NATIONAL LABORATORY
18
SAINT-GOBAIN PERFORMANCE PLASTICS
PAMPUS GMBH
17
SCHOTT AG PV
41
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SEG PV CO., LTD.
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SHANGHAI NEW ENERGY INDUSTRY
ASSOCIATION - SNEC PV POWER EXPO 2012
16
SIEMENS AG
49
SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
43-45
SOLAR PROMOTION GMBH - INTERSOLAR
EUROPE 2012
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23
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SOVELLO AG
42
SPUTNIK ENGINEERING
IBC
SUNGROW POWER SUPPLY CO., LTD.
38
THE CENTRAL GROUP
50
TROJAN BATTERY COMPANY
13
TSINGHUA SOLAR SYSTEMS LTD.
22
UNIVERSITY OF GENEVA
26
UPSOLAR EUROPE SAS
37
VALENTIN ENERGY SOFTWARE
28
YOKOGAWA CORPORATION OF AMERICA 30
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-VYTVYLPUMVYTH[PVULU[LYH[9,>OV[PTZJVT
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SEPTEMBEROCTOBER 2011
STRATEGIES FOR
GRID PARITY
RANKING US
SOLAR UTILITIES
FEATURES
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Intersolar Europe
Hall.Stand B4.158
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CONTENTS
SEPTEMBEROCTOBER 2011
News/analysis
Including the latest analysis from Lux Research, which concludes that the solar
industry must find new markets in order to sustain growth momentum, as well
as a profile of the Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Gemasolar plant in Spain.
This system recently reached peak production levels of more than 350 MWh but,
more significantly, the plant succeeded in delivering 24 hours of
uninterrupted operation.
FEATURES
7
12
DAN HARPER on
+1 603 924 4405 ext 211
or e-mail rew@pennwell.com
2011 PennWell International Publications Ltd
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may
be reproduced in any form or by any means, whether
electronic, mechanical or otherwise including
photocopying, recording or any information storage
or retrieval system without the prior written consent
of the Publishers.
While every attempt is made to ensure the accuracy
of the information contained in this magazine, neither
the Publishers nor the authors accept any liability for
errors or omissions.
15
17
Each year the Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA) presents its rankings
for the top US utility groups, in terms of both installed solar capacity and watts per
customer. Here we examine the highlights of the report and its associated analysis.
By David Appleyard
In the world of renewables, particularly solar, grid parity is a term that is much
bandied about, and often misunderstood. For solar power to experience
sustainable growth, strategies for making grid parity part of an ongoing process will be
become necessary.
By Richard Baillie
Exploring the current trends in photovoltaic system costs and market trends in
Europe, here we take a look at key regulatory and manufacturing influences that
are revealed in the latest report to emerge from IHS Research and which are
expected to play out over the coming months.
By David Appleyard
Prospects for the German PV sector have significantly improved with recent news
that the government will not now be enforcing additional tariff cuts. Here we
explore the market and the recent developments that will influence its future growth.
By Tildy Bayar
19
The Interview
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SHIFT SEEN IN
SOLAR MARKETS
Despite cuts to solar subsidies
over the past few years, a new
report from Lux Research finds
that solar installations have
continued to rise driven primarily
by increased demand from a
single market: Germany. (For
an in-depth look at the German
PV market, see our feature on
page 17.)
However, as manufacturers
approach near-term limits on
cost reductions, German demand
will begin to decline, the report
says. As the German market
shrinks and debt-ridden European
governments limit subsidies, the
industry desperately needs to
locate new markets to forestall
a shakeout.
As a result, demand will shift
to Asia and North America and
the solar market will grow in terms
of MW installed, but revenues
will stay flat as price declines
outpace volume growth, the
analysis concludes.
The report, Market Size
Update 2011: Putting the Rest
of World on the Map of Global
Solar Demand from Lux Solar
Systems Intelligence and Lux
Solar Components Intelligence
predicts that solar demand will
shift to a broader range of markets
over the next five years, with
Japan, China and India emerging.
Meanwhile, the US will become
a key player given government
support of tax equity through
2016 and a number of state-level
programmes, Lux says.
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TOWER POWERS
FOR 24 HOURS
The 350 MWh per day, 24-hour
operations, solar power plant is
now a reality. The first commercial
plant to use molten salt storage in
a central tower configuration with
a heliostat field, in operation since
May, yielded better than expected
results, its developers say.
With its 19.9 MW of rated
power, the Gemasolar plant
reached peak production levels of
more than 350 MWh in 24 hours
of uninterrupted operation.
Thanks to its storage capacity,
in July Gemasolar was able to
supply energy during the hours
of highest demand in Spain:
12 pm and 10 pm. August is also
expected to deliver a significant
load factor for the plant.
Gemasolar boasts a storage
capacity of some 15 hours at full
operation. This makes it possible
for it to supply energy to the grid
based on demand, regardless of
whether there is constant solar
radiation, its operators say.
Indeed, with this project,
it appears that generating fully
dispatchable power from solar
energy sources has finally become
a reality.
It is expected that Gemasolar
will produce an annual net total
output of more than 110 GWh by
operating for a total of 6450 hours
a year at full capacity.
Inevitably, the summer months
are when the plant is at its greatest
efficiency,
therefore
Torresol
Energys technicians estimate
that come mid-September, its
Storage allows the Gemasolar CSP plant to supply power, even during the
hours of darkness
Gemasolar
Masdar
Power
believes
in
introducing and launching new
technologies in the clean energy
spectrum, and we will continue
to explore fresh opportunities
to
implement
such
novel
technologies that will bring multiple
benefits to the community.
Mercedes
Sierra,
vice
president of SENERs office in
the US, added: The efficiency of
this technology... is proving to be
vastly superior to conventional
solar technologies, either without
storage systems or which cant
reach such high temperatures.
The Gemasolar installation
can reach operating temperatures
of more than 500C, much higher
than other types of concentrating
solar plant, which use parabolic
trough technology. It does not
require oil as a heat transfer
medium, but rather directly uses
the salt as a transfer fluid.
6
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REGIONAL MARKETS
By David Appleyard
SOLAR UTILITY
RANKINGS: US
PROSPECTS FOR DIVERSITY IMPROVE
Each year the Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA) presents its rankings for the top US utility groups, in terms of both
installed capacity and installed watts per customer. Here we examine the highlights of the report and its associated analysis.
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REGIONAL MARKETS
than 50 MW) require overcoming financing, siting/permitting and
transmission barriers that might emerge at these larger sizes. CSP
represents over 6 GW of the over 15 GW of future solar projects that
are being tracked, but there are differences in project development
between CSP and PV. Sub-sections of the larger PV project can be
energized over time, resulting in lower construction risk and balancesheet impact. Conversely CSP projects must be fully completed
before commissioning, which may take several years.
Utility ownership was a new impact on this years rankings. Thirty
utilities reported owning 140 MW of new solar, or 18% of the total
market, up from an estimated 30 MW, which represented 9%, in 2009.
The Top 10 ranked utilities owned 23% of their total annual capacity,
with three utilities owning more than a third Arizona Public Service,
Duke Energy Carolinas, and FPL. While most utilities future plans for
ownership involve distributed projects, 2010 was the exception due
to FPLs two large centralised projects. The utility ownership trend is
expected to continue its growth, with at least 1100 MW of announced
utility-owned projects in the pipeline over the next few years.
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states making the list, including three from the East. In 2009 there
were four different states, of which none were in the East.
Unlike last year, the watts-per-customer utility portfolios were
driven by both distributed and centralised generation projects,
but this varied significantly by utility five utilities had exclusively
distributed projects, one exclusively centralised projects (or nearly
so), and four a mixture. For example, more than 55% of Coloradobased Xcel Energys 2010 solar portfolio was achieved through
centralised projects while Black Hills Energy Colorado Electric was
entirely distributed and JEA nearly entirely centralised.
Utility ownership played a smaller role in determining the wattsper-customer ranking. Two of the ranked utilities, Arizonas Tucson
Electric Power and PSE&G, installed utility-owned projects in 2010, in
contrast with six in the Top 10 utilities by megawatts. This is partially
due to the fact that three of the 10 are municipals, which for a variety
of reasons (primarily taxation) are less likely to own solar projects.
Cumulative capacity
In terms of cumulative capacity to the end of December 2010,
Southern California Edison (SCE) and PG&E ranked first and second,
respectively, for the third straight year, though PG&E is gaining
ground. The majority of SCEs portfolio (62%) is derived from longstanding PPA contracts with the nine SEGS CSP plants, while PG&Es
portfolio is largely distributed, customer-sited systems. PSE&G and
FPL were ranked third and fourth respectively, with PSE&G edging
FPL by just 0.1 MW or 0.08%. A similarly close race was seen between
Nevadas NV Energy at fifth and Californias San Diego Gas and
Electric (SDG&E) at sixth, with only 0.5 MW or 0.6% separating them.
All amazingly close given the multi-year solar development they have
undertaken in very different state markets.
All Top 10 utilities were investor-owned and eight of the 10
utilities were in last years rankings too, with the two newcomers
being Atlantic City Electric Co and Jersey Central Power and Light.
Both utilities integrated distributed solar for the most part.
Geographically, the Eastern region doubled its representation in
this years rankings for this category, from two to four. The remaining
six Top 10 utilities for this category are all located in the West.
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PG&E and SCE maintain their number one and two positions
respectively, while Tucson Electric Power climbed onto this years list
after seeing the installation of a diverse group of both centralised and
distributed projects in 2010. Six of the utilities represented in these
rankings are also present on the national MW rankings list. The Top 10
changed little from 2009, with eight utilities repeating from last year.
Altogether, this region saw the installation of nearly 29,950 PV
projects in 2010. In addition, nearly 30% of the regions capacity was
obtained from centralised projects, all of which were PV.
Utility types
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GRID PARITY
By Richard Baillie
SOLARS SEARCH
SEEKING THE ELUSIVE MILESTONE
For solar power to experience sustainable growth, strategies for achieving grid parity will be required. As part of an
ongoing process it will be necessary for developers to address system costs, finance, investment and Feed-in Tariffs.
In the world of renewables, particularly solar, grid parity is a term that
is bandied about a lot. But what does it actually mean, and when is it
going to happen?
To complicate matters, the price of electricity from the grid varies
widely between areas. For example, in the US prices range from
high-cost jurisdictions such as Hawaii and California to lower-cost
jurisdictions such as Wyoming and Idaho.
In a sunny island market such as Hawaii with diesel-generated
electricity, electric rates approaching US$0.30/kWh, and falling
module prices it makes considerable economic sense for consumers
or utilities to install solar arrays, with the right infrastructure and
regulations in place.
For similar reasons, a host of other markets Italy, Spain, Australia,
Germany, Japan, and the US (California, Texas) are widely expected
to achieve grid parity within the short to medium term.
Moreover, in some countries, wind power, landfill gas and certain
forms of biomass generation are already lower-cost (on a per kWh
basis) than electricity provided from the grid. In fact, grid parity
has already been achieved in certain jurisdictions that continue to
use feed-in tariffs (FiTs). For example, the generation costs from
landfill gas systems in Germany are currently lower than the average
electricity spot market price.
In remote areas electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV) can be
cheaper than building new distribution lines to connect to the main
transmission grid. This makes the notion of grid parity elusive.
Probably the best answer for solar is given by Ernst & Young,
who argue that because so much solar power is likely to be installed
in the built environment (displacing electricity consumed from the
buildings on which it sits), solar grid parity is quite likely to be judged
by reference to the retail rather than the wholesale price of electricity,
with a deduction for the cost of the subsidy itself where it is recovered
as part of that price.
A MOVING TARGET
When grid parity is going to be achieved is another tricky question,
and varies greatly from place to place. Again according to Ernst &
Young, retail grid parity may be reached generally between 2012 and
2015 with, for example, the US to the fore and the UK having the
prospect of parity in 2015, if retail electricity prices continue to rise.
However, if solar is judged by the harsher test of wholesale price
parity, then it is not expected to be achievable until about 2030 in
Italy with concentrating solar power (CSP) achieving parity a few
years earlier, between 2025 and 2027 in California and Spain, the
company believes.
Other forecasters offer different estimates that would result in
grid parity happening sooner. UN expert Sven Teske, a contributing
author to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)s
recent report on renewable energies as well as renewables director
at Greenpeace, says the EU is on track for solar grid parity as early
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Although its definition varies, grid parity is the point at which the cost of
solar power matches that of grid electricity
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ENCOURAGING INVESTMENT
But while FiTs are important, they are still very susceptible to changes
in economic conditions. This circumstance forces PV manufacturers to
plan for demand surges by building capacity with the understanding
that local policy and downstream players are ready for long-term
market build-out.
The EUs climate action commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, says
that EU nations should remember the Commissions 2020 targets for
renewables when taking such decisions.
Take care that you, the Member States, are not doing anything
retroactively that will just make people fear to invest in this area, she
said. Its in nobodys interests. That does not mean that if youve had
the feed-in tariff once it can never, ever be changed. But you have to
be very cautious and you have to give very, very long warnings. Stopand-go policies discourage investors, says Despotou, citing FiT cuts
in France and Spain as examples.
Governments may introduce a law [with] something wrong in [it]
from the beginning. You may have very generous incentives in order
to kick off the market and once the incentive is too generous, that of
course creates some speculative bubbles, she says.
Even with long warnings, market uncertainties caused by tariff
cuts have apparently led companies such as First Solar to announce
major new deals in China, and Total to invest instead in the US.
Teske expects Europes global market share of the PV sector to
drop as a result and suggests that solar PV companies should be
allowed to provide as well as produce electricity because at present,
utilities could double their overnight backup prices when the sun is
not shining and so nullify the benefits of any feed-in tariff.
Reaching grid parity with solar power is anticipated in various markets over
the coming years, starting in high cost markets like California
SolarCentury
MARKET PROJECTIONS
Others say grid parity has already been achieved in some markets.
John Denniston, a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caulfield and Byers,
agrees that innovation in clean technology has helped drive strong
growth in both solar and wind over the last five years.
Some geographies are at grid parity: in Italy, in some parts of
California, he says. In the coming 12, 24, 36 months, well be at
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GRID PARITY
grid parity in other geographies due to innovation and economies of
scale. Countries like Spain and Japan and states like New York, New
Jersey, Florida, Arizona, Texas are coming into grid parity in solar PV,
and at that point, this already very large industry will be poised for a
very significant takeoff, says Denniston.
The New York-based Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers (IEEE) echoes this view. Solar power is approaching the
point of grid parity, says James Prendergast, IEEEs executive director.
By about 2015, well be at a significant inflection, and if you talk
about southern California, youre probably already there, he says.
Worldwide capacity for solar PV systems has been increasing
by about 40% a year since 2000 at those rates, solar is expected
to provide 11% of total global power by 2050, according to the
International Energy Association (IEA). However, Prendergast noted:
These projections are highly speculative, adding that solar may
provide even more of the worlds power as solar panel prices fall. We
are about as close to consensus as you can get that solar will be a
game changer for the generation of energy in the future.
A recent report by Ernst & Young shows yet again how dramatically
solar PV module prices are dropping. The report, which focuses on the
UK solar market, illustrates the continued downward price pressure
on panels due to a steady ramp-up in global manufacturing capacity.
By 2013, the average selling price of a solar module will be down
around $1 per watt, from $1.50 today, the document concludes.
This suggests that falling PV panel prices and rising fossil fuel
prices could together make large-scale solar installations costcompetitive without government support within a decade.
That said, it is important to remember that these are simply module
prices. The actual cost of solar electricity is determined by the cost of
other equipment, construction and installation, and permitting. Low
module prices do not in themselves bring grid parity. And, as large
markets such as Italy or California reach grid parity, surges in demand
for solar PV may push up installation costs. As a result, grid parity may
be achieved only temporarily.
Moreover, in supply bottlenecks for various components or
in services such as system integration, the availability of trained
personnel for installation may slow the surge and raise prices,
Rapid deployment under FiTs in countries such as Germany and Spain has
undoubtedly contributed to reducing technology costs
FESA
To date, the most secure way to keep finance costs low for solar
PV has been the FiT. At some stage net metering might replace FiTs,
enabling project owners and householders to collect what may be a
higher rate per kWh but, despite the prospect of higher kWh rates
with net metering, the uncertainty driven by fluctuations in interest
rates could still make this less attractive.
Prices may also be boosted by off-grid installations. As PV system
components become more affordable, and with growth in battery
manufacturing capacity and associated lowered prices, demand for
off-grid systems could rise in the developing world. This increasing
supply and affordability of solar modules would boost demand for
PV and batteries worldwide, potentially increasing prices in other
markets and making solar more expensive with regard to other
sources of power.
With this in mind, it might be safer not to predict any specific time
target for grid parity. Rather than a single event, the concensus is that
it is likely to be something that slowly evolves over a number of years
across a variety of markets.
So while grid parity is an important milestone, it is far from
being the be-all and end-all for the solar industry. For solar power
to experience sustainable growth, strategies for making grid parity
part of an ongoing process will be necessary. In order to encourage
ongoing investment in the industry it may well prove necessary to
maintain the current FiT system, even at market rates, as a price
stability mechanism and as a means to reduce capital expenditure
financing costs.
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EUROPEAN PV
MODULE PRICES CONVERGING
Exploring current trends in photovoltaic system costs and market trends in Europe, we consider the key regulatory and
manufacturing influences that are expected to play out in the coming years.
Analysis of cost data from more than 400 photovoltaic (PV) systems
across Europe suggests that while system costs vary by geography
due to local permitting mechanisms and siting regulations, cost trends
are converging on a more predictable pattern. However, drawing this
conclusion, a new IHS Emerging Energy Research report also argues
that European PV market volatility is underpinned by regulatory
volatility and speculation that it is beginning to stabilise with wider
adoption and experience.
The report suggests that geographic cost variances are largely
driven by incentive rates, downstream competition and regulatory
experience. Nonetheless, since the end of 2006, some 33 GW of PV
have been added in Europe, allowing for significant cost reductions.
Germany stands out as its system costs are consistently lower due
to competition and deeper experience along the value chain. This
contrasts with Italy, which shows the broadest price range, a sign of a
still immature and volatile market.
Even so, the analysis points to a trend toward price convergence
between countries, particularly in the utility-scale sector. While in
Europe the average turnkey price is 2.31/W for large ground-based
systems, commercial and residential rooftops are seeing installed
prices at average premiums of 0.43/W and 1.05/W respectively,
the study finds. It adds that commercial rooftop systems did average
around 20% more than ground-based installations of less than
100 kW; this does, however, represent a 41% decline from the
0.74/W figure found in 2009.
Associate for IHS EERs Europe Solar Power Advisory service and lead
author of the report. Berg added: The economic turmoil in Europe
is having a mixed impact on PV investments. While some developers
are divesting earlier than usual to raise cash, we also see players with
financial capacity, such as private equity funds, stepping in to pick up
mature assets with stable returns.
In addition, the influence of an increasingly global supply chain
allowing the more efficient delivery of lower-cost modules and other
components, coupled with an oversupply situation, has played a
primary role in driving overall PV system costs downward.
Currently accounting for approximately 55% of overall system
price, module prices are expected to continue their decline through
improved manufacturing processes and low-cost manufacturing and
are expected to drop 20%30% through 2011 as manufacturers
expand capacity and global demand cools after an unprecedented
15 GW installed in 2010. Berg concludes: In the coming months
we expect a shakeout in the PV module market as not everyone can
afford to see their margins squeezed
Due to be published as REW goes to press, for more information
on the report see: www.IHS.com.
(\[OVY+L[HPSZ
David Appleyard is chief editor of Renewable Energy World
e-mail: rew@pennwell.com
This article is available on-line. To comment on it or forward it to a
colleague, visit: www.RenewableEnergyWorld.com
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Where theres sun, theres energy. Thats why ABB is using its world-class expertise
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design, and ease of installation and performance data monitoring. To discover how
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REGIONAL MARKETS
By Tildy Bayar
GERMANYS
PV MARKET
Conflicting forecasts
Despite some justified anxiety over the future of Germanys largescale solar development, the countrys recent declaration that it will
work toward shutting down its nuclear capacity within the next decade
has contributed to the much more positive forecast for renewable
energy in general and PV in particular. The PV industry in Germany
has ambitious targets in its roadmap and wants to keep allocation
costs under 2 cents/kWh by installing 5270 GW by 2020, along with
lowering system prices by at least 50%.
In addition, a glut of modules and PV inverters are set to revitalise
the German solar market this year as prices fall to a degree that makes
investing in solar power financially attractive again, says a report from
IMS Research. Despite a very weak first quarter, the report predicts
strong growth through the rest of the year, peaking in the fourth
quarter and even exceeding the 7 GW installed in 2010.
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REGIONAL MARKETS
However, the Grid Agency predicts that only 2.8 GW will be
installed throughout 2011, a figure which falls rather short of industry
expectations and even less than the government had originally
envisioned in its targets.
Analysts at Jefferies & Company, meanwhile, believe that
Germany could see 56 GW installed over the year. In a recent
industry note, they comment: Our estimates are still for 5.5 GW this
year in Germany.
added more PV (7.4 GW) in 2010 than the entire world did over the
previous year, ending 2010 with 17.3 GW of existing capacity. But,
following the earlier FiT reductions, this trend abated in early 2011.
And Solarbuzz predicts that, overall, strong 2010 European PV market
growth of 169% is set to give way to a 14% contraction in 2011.
Criticism
BSW expressed regret that, within the context of the current
legislative amendment to the EEG, photovoltaic installations on
agricultural areas, which are particularly cost-effective, will continue
to be excluded from support measures although the solar industry
has repeatedly called for their inclusion.
In any case, whatever the exact figures turn out to be, it seems
that most analysts agree that a market recovery very strong or less
so is now likely.
(\[OVY+L[HPSZ
Tildy Bayar is associate editor of Renewable Energy World magazine.
e-mail: rew@pennwell.com
This article is available on-line. To comment on it or forward it to a
colleague, visit: www.RenewableEnergyWorld.com
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THE
INTERVIEW
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ADVERTISERS INDEX
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WIND
TECHNOLOGY
MOVING PRODUCTION
COMES OF AGE
OVERCOME OFFSHORE
SUPPLY CHAIN CHALLENGES
SENSORS CRUCIAL FOR SUCCESS
FEATURES
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CONTENTS
September-October 2011
REGULARS
3
24
Tech notes
FEATURES
Moving manufacturing
EKOW MONNEY on
+44 20 8679 5945 (direct), or
SANDRA SPENCER on
+44 1992 656 664 (direct), or
By Richard Baillie
PETER ANDERSEN on
+1 603 924 4405 ext 204, or
DAN HARPER on
+1 603 924 4405 ext 211
The slightest hiccup during construction operations can throw a wind projects
schedule wildly off course, a disastrous outcome in almost every circumstance
imaginable. However, these challenges can be addressed.
By Marios Papalexandrou
or e-mail rew@pennwell.com
2011 PennWell International Publications Ltd
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may
be reproduced in any form or by any means, whether
electronic, mechanical or otherwise including
photocopying, recording or any information storage
or retrieval system without the prior written consent
of the Publishers.
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By Mike Powers
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MODERNISING PRODUCTION
By Richard Baillie
ACCELERATED
WORKFLOW
MANUFACTURING WAKES UP
TO AUTOMATION
The continuing trend toward automation in the wind industry is equivalent to the changes that resulted in the mechanisation
of the automotive sector nearly a century ago. Here we investigate what companies are doing to improve efficiency and
production quality.
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MODERNISING PRODUCTION
In the old days, people would finish one turbine then celebrate
by drinking beer and having a barbecue but things have moved on
from there. Line production now forces discipline on other parts of
the organisation. For example, in the past suppliers would say two
days more or less but now it has to really work and we can also do
better TCO evaluations. Buying the cheapest might not turn out to be
the best given the recurrent problems it could cause in production.
Sielemann also stresses the need for what he calls visual
transparency. He says, The state of the factory is now apparent to
everybody at every point in time. Additional markings on the floor
show the place for material. Boards, cards and lights show the state
of processes. Performance is measured and tracked on team boards.
Sielemann believes that further mechanisation will be an ongoing
trend in wind energy. The idea of changing our production came up
two years ago and that was one of the reasons why I joined Nordex
because we needed to industrialise our processes. We are not the
first but we are the most thorough, says Sielemann.
Its not about the techniques of production, theres no secret
about the technical side, its the organisational side thats tougher,
says Sielemann. Were more focused on team meetings, key learning
and that kind of thing. When I worked for MAN I saw that Toyota had
invented a way of organising production into three key areas: line
assembly, relationship with suppliers and continuous improvement
in shop floor management. Thats what we are trying to achieve at
Nordex. Weve already integrated this system at our factories in
Arkansas and in Rostock but not yet in China.
6
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An emerging market
Magdalena Dziegielewska, research analyst for energy and power
systems at Frost & Sullivan, states that the overall market for wind
farm components in Eastern Europe is just beginning to take shape.
The first visible signs of growth are seen in foundry and welding
sectors. However, these components are mostly produced for wind
farms located in Eastern Europe.
The benefits work both ways, says Dziegielewska. [Eastern
European] companies also participate in Western European projects,
however they are usually sub-contractors for local firms and provide
work related to painting and welding of steel parts.
With regards to projects in Eastern Europe she believes Western
European suppliers are using local firms to make substantial
cost savings. Due to the significant size of components and
high transportation costs that vary from 60-80 per kilometre
manufacturers are looking for sub-contractors and sub-suppliers
among local producers, she explains.
Looking to the future, there is clearly the potential for major wind
turbine manufacturers to operate manufacturing bases in Eastern
Europe, especially if markets like Romania and Poland continue their
impressive growth.
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OFFSHORE WIND
By Marios Papalexandrou
OVERCOMING
OFFSHORE
CHALLENGES
Close to shore or out to sea, offshore wind in Europe and around the world is not just happening, it is growing rapidly.
Offshore wind farms are highly sophisticated projects that need careful planning and risk evaluation before they are
implemented. What are the key challenges that the market is facing at the moment?
Offshore wind is a new market; it has been just two decades since
the first commercial installation. The sector was born mainly due to
lack of space for the development of large onshore wind projects
in the densely populated areas of Western Europe. The market first
evolved in Denmark in 1991 with the construction of the Vindeby
offshore wind farm, but real market growth came some 10 years
later with construction of Middelgrunden, followed by Horns Rev
which became the largest true offshore project, located as it is some
1420 km offshore, with a total installed capacity of 160 MW.
In addition to Denmark, the UK, Ireland, Sweden, the Netherlands,
Belgium, Germany, Japan and China have constructed offshore
wind farms over the last decade. Other countries including France,
Taiwan, Canada, the US, Greece and other European nations are
also looking to tap into this resource. The UK market began project
construction in 2003 and soon took the lions share, which it still holds,
from Denmark. For the UK everything started with Crown Estates
Round 1 demonstration projects in 13 locations, with a total capacity
of around 1 GW. Round 1 projects are quite close to shore (less than
10 km) in shallow waters (less than 15 metres), with an average
capacity of between 60 and 90 MW. Developers at that time were
ambitious mid-sized companies and the largest offshore wind turbine
available was 3.6 MW.
Two years later the UK Round 2 projects were awarded, including
15 sites with a total capacity of 7 GW that are currently under
construction. They have an average capacity of between 150 MW
and 500 MW in water depths up to 30 metres. The largest turbine
commercially available is 6 MW, while the furthest offshore project
under construction in the UK is 30 km. Today, developers are mainly
large utilities. Simultaneously with these large UK developments,
we see the first offshore wind farms being constructed in Germany
which, together with the UK, is expected comprise the dominant
market for the coming decade.
Offshore wind farms are highly sophisticated projects that need careful
planning and risk evaluation before they are implemented.
Mott MacDonald
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OFFSHORE WIND
large wind farms. Considering just the UK market alone, about 1 GW
in installations per year is expected until 2015, and possibly 4 GW
each year after 2015.
This rapid expansion in such a short time has led to a number
of projects considered prototypes, either because they use new
technologies (new turbines, new foundations, new transmission
technologies, new installation concepts) or because they move further
offshore into deeper waters than ever before. Dealing with these
types of projects poses major challenges for the industry. Can the
supply chain follow the tremendous expansion rate of offshore wind
development? What construction and technology risks are foreseen?
Is the hardware there? Is the skilled manpower there?
Regarding the hardware, there is currently a shortage of vessels
to be deployed for offshore foundation and turbine installation, but
this shortfall is expected to be addressed by 2012. Most vessels used
today originated with the oil and gas industry, but with significant
expansion in offshore wind, dedicated installation vessels are now
being ordered and built. These vessels can operate in deeper waters
and larger weather envelopes, and are able to carry many more
turbines and foundations. This minimises transportation cycles to the
marshalling harbour and thus decreases installation time.
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In many wind farms a failure of the connection between the monopile and
the transition piece, known as grout, has led to vertical slippage.
Mott MacDonald
TURBINE CHALLENGES
Turbine technology is another key challenge for the market. Until
recently, offshore wind was following in the footsteps of onshore wind
technology development, with turbines considered as marinised
onshore types. There are three turbine suppliers in Europe that own
the lions share of the market: Vestas, Siemens and REpower. Bard and
Areva Multibrid have recently begun offshore operation, and many
more are expected to enter the market, including Gamesa, Alstom,
Clipper, Darwind, General Electric, Mitsubishi, 2-B Energy, Nordex,
Doosan and others. This multiplicity of new entrants is likely to result
in better commercial terms for developers. All of these turbines can
be considered state-of-the-art, due either to the technology used or
the turbine size upgrade. A rigorous test procedure, together with
design built redundancies, is key to offering comfort to potential
buyers and their investors. The development of offshore test sites for
these turbines is considered very positive for testing their performance
before serial production. The final selection of turbines will be a
tradeoff between availability, track record and price/guarantees.
BUILDING MANPOWER
Regarding skilled manpower, the rapid expansion rate of offshore
wind has not been followed by a similar growth rate in trained and
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OFFSHORE WIND
skilled personnel. Newcomers face problems, but even experienced
players may encounter problems due to a rate and scope of expansion
that does not allow for sufficient knowledge transfer.
A platform to share knowledge and experiences in offshore wind,
to educate and train, would be a potential solution. A good example
on a national level is the UKs National Academy for Skills (Nuclear).
Its role is to provide education and training, run events, offer services
and develop expertise for the benefit of its members and the industry
as a whole. A similar approach to offshore wind could be followed at a
European level under the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA).
It is promising that offshore oil and gas contracting and consulting
companies are getting involved in the offshore wind sector; their
experience gained in working in harsh offshore environments can be
transferred. But can offshore wind jobs compete with offshore oil and
gas in order to get experienced people on board? For the moment
this problem seems prohibitive.
CONSTRUCTION RISKS
Apart from the supply chain challenges that the industry faces, there
are a number of risks with which each project has to cope. As offshore
wind farm projects are capital-intensive and involve many contractors
and interfaces, careful evaluation of construction risks is of paramount
importance for a projects success. There are two key items to be
considered when installing offshore: weather conditions and vessel
capability. Project completion can be affected because people tend
to overestimate equipment capability and underestimate weather in
the offshore environment. There are also cases where problems have
occurred because the equipment available at the time, rather than
the appropriate equipment, was used.
The quality of measured and predicted metocean data (including
wind, waves, tide and swell) is key to a good understanding of the
real site conditions at the wind farm location. When considering these
data, a conservative approach should be taken toward vessel selection
and project planning, with contingency plans for weather that is worse
than expected, and plans that will allow for float between different
contractors schedules so that the final project completion date is not
affected. Vessels operational envelopes should be well understood
in connection with the expected metocean conditions in order to
ensure that the right tool is used within the planned schedule.
Other construction risks are related to understanding seabed
conditions and poor design, especially in relation to cable installation.
Although cable work counts for only 7% of the total capital expenditure
of an offshore project, most insurance claims and project delays are
linked to the cable installation process. Many offshore projects have
failed to achieve the correct burial depth or meet the scheduled
installation deadline.
Two issues arose during construction of the Bligh Bank offshore
wind farm. Bligh Bank utilises monopile foundations that were
transported 46 km offshore, towed by a tug vessel. The monopiles
were transported using hydraulic plugs in both ends to keep them
sealed and floating. In two cases the monopiles sank due to failure of
the hydraulic system in the plugs. A new solution had to be designed,
and additional redundancy measures were taken which accounted for
more stringent weather restrictions.
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wi fo w
nd cu or Th
co se lds e
ns d B la
tru 2B rg
cti o est
on s
co hor
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3RD ANNUAL
Farshore Wind
Construction, Installation &
Commissioning Conference
LONDON, OCTOBER 4TH 6TH 2011
Overcome farshore transport and logistics challenges to
successfully install your wind farm on time and on budget.
Excellent
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and relevant
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SEAENERGY RENEWABLES
2010 ATTENDEE
WWW.WINDENERGYUPDATE.COM/
CONSTRUCT-2011
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SENSORY
PERCEPTION
FOR WIND
The need for advanced sensor technology is greater than ever before as
turbines become more sophisticated
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KEEPING
HYDRAULICS
HEALTHY
ENSURING CRITICAL SYSTEMS
ARE ROBUST AND RELIABLE
Operators must consider a wide range of issues if they are to protect and optimise their wind turbine equipment, in
particular the hydraulic systems which are prevalent.
Hydraulic systems are used extensively in wind turbines, notably in the pitch,
yaw and brake control systems
Across the world, from east to west, the provision of wind power
is increasing dramatically with, for example, China and the USA
producing the first and second largest volumes of wind power
respectively. So what must wind turbine suppliers and engineers do to
ensure that the ever-increasing demand for wind power is satisfied?
One of the biggest concerns in the construction of wind
turbines is the reliability of the gearbox. Changing a gearbox is
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kl-company.de
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Modern filter materials offer unrivalled strength and dirt holding capacity
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WIND TECHNOLOGY SUPPLEMENT - SEPTEMBEROCTOBER 2011
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DISTRIBUTION SWITCHGEAR
By Jose Mara Torres, Iaki Blanco & David Goiricelaya
TESTING TIME
FOR WIND
SWITCHGEAR
Addressing the rigours of the offshore environment demands far more from in-turbine medium voltage switchgear, as well
the testing regime, which must reproduce conditions at sea and during transportation to site.
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Environmental impacts
Driving mechanisms are the devices responsible for opening and
closing a turbines three-position switch-disconnector and circuit
breaker. These systems would only be opened when a fault occurs
within the wind farms MV grid, or during maintenance or operation
checks. Nonetheless, the reliability of this device is vital from a safety
and performance point of view.
In places like the US and Canada, for example, temperatures at a
wind farm can be as low as -22 F (-30 C) during operation and -40 F
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TECH NOTES
Wind updates
Wind farms back to school
A wind farm has been designed
in which the array of machines
has been modelled on the
fluid dynamics which surround
schooling fish. According to BBC
reports, aeronautical engineer
Robert Whittlesey of the California
Institute of Technology (Caltech)
said, The fish aim to align
themselves to optimise their
forward propulsion, and he added
that this tendency can be adapted
in a turbine array to maximise
energy extraction.
The new design uses closelyspaced pairs of counter-rotating
turbines that funnel air to their
neighbours, with little energy
lost to turbulence. Not only do
neighbouring machines benefit
from lower turbulence, but the
funnelling effect is also important. In
fact, power generated by the paired
turbines can actually be greater
than that from the turbines working
independently,
the
research
reportedly indicates. In modelling
tests, a turbine five rows in an
array back still generates 95% of
the output of one on the front row.
The researchers believe that a wind
farm based on this closely-packed
design could produce around 10
times that of current designs.
Understanding icing
A study analysing measured icing
and comparing the figures to model
data on Swedish utility group
Vattenfalls machine, which began
Vergnets compliance
A two-bladed wind turbine design,
the Vergnet SA, GEV HP 1 MW,
has received a Statement of
Compliance from GL Renewables
Certification for its design. This
Class IIIA is also fitted with a
novel, and patented, lowering
Its
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the
Autocopter costs less than
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Giant protection
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A Fresh Breeze
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