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Dissertation Report
A study of volatility, liquidity trends & risk , return analysis of equity shares in
stock market of India in Realty Sector (DLF limited, PARSVNATH DEVELOPERS
& OMAXE) with respect to liquidity and stock return analysis of equity shares in
Bombay Stock Exchange for last 13 months ending January- 09
prices of both residential and commercial properties in these cities.
Contents
Page No.
Preface
Executive Summary
Introduction
7-29
30-31
Theoretical Framework
32-
34
Constructs
Variables
Literature Survey & Review
35-37
Research Methodology
63.
Research Design
64.
65.
Analytical Tools
67.
Hypothesis Testing
72.
Statistical Tools
81.
92.
94.
95.
Conclusion
97.
Bibliography
98.
2
Annexure
Indian real estate has huge potential demand in almost every sector especially
commercial, residential, retail, industrial, hospitality, healthcare etc.
Commercial office space requirement is led by the burgeoning outsourcing and
Information Technology Industry. The leaders of the IT/ITES world have set up or
are setting up their centers in India. Estimated demand from IT/ITES sector alone is
expected to be 150mn sq.ft. of space across the major cities by 2010.
In residential sector there is housing shortage of 19.4 million units out of which 6.7
million are in urban India.
The increase in purchasing power and exposure to organized retail formats has
redefined the consumption pattern. As a result the country has experienced
mushrooming of retail projects across the cities.
The main growth thrust is coming due to favorable demographics, increasing
purchasing power, existence of customer friendly banks & housing finance
companies, professionalism in real estate and favorable reforms initiated by the
government to attract global investors.
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42
r
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:
Th
Gr
De
Inc
De
A major chunk of the Foreign Direct Investments (FDI's) presently goes into the
Indian realty sector. Steps have been taken to manage and further promote real
estate investment in India. An Indian Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is being
formed that will facilitate fast and easy liquidation of investments in the real estate
market in India. The Indian realty market is flooded with Initial Public Offer (IPO)
by various real estate and infrastructure development groups. This is opening
further avenues for investments in real estate in India.
Why invest in Indian Real Estate
43
India Real Estate Investment is a significant feature of the Indian realty market under
the initiation of the investors and developers, leading to future real estate development in
India. The development of private ownership of property real estate in India has become
a major area of business with India Real Estate Investment playing the vital role. India
Real Estate Investment involves minimum risk for getting maximum return.
India Real Estate Investment has rising demand in every sector like commercial,
residential, retail, industrial and hospitality. But maximum demand is observed in the
booming IT sector. The India Real Estate Investment is facilitated by the liberal economic
policies of the government.
Factors Favoring India Real Estate Investment:
1.Increasing growth in residential properties due to lower interest rates, easy availability
of housing finance, rising income, better job prospects and increase of nuclear families.
2.Growth of retail market in India due to increasing demand from retailers, higher
disposable incomes and opening up of FDI in Retail.
3.Burgeoning IT and ITES industry
4.Growing commercial property market.
5.Emerging hospitality or hotel industry due to the exceptional boom in inbound tourism
and the IT sector.
6.Development of the special economic zones.
Foreign Investment (FDI) in Real Estate Sectors in India
Foreign Direct Investment is encouraged and permitted, subject to certain conditions, in
the following real estate sectors in India:
Hotel Development
Tourism
Hospitality
Township development
44
Built-up infrastructure
Building Resorts
Building Hospitals
Develop a minimum land area of 10 hectares for serviced housing plots, and a
minimum built-up area of 50,000 sq m in case of construction projects. The policy
does not clearly define built-up, though FSI (Floor Space Index)/FAR (Floor
Area Ratio) could be used as a basis for the same.
Complete at least 50% of the integrated project within five years from the date of
obtaining all clearances.
45
not issued for months on end, even years, an uncertainty which tends to raise
project cost, often beyond viability.
Conform with all applicable local and state laws, and abide by all regulations and
norms.
46
RBI has classified lending to SEZs on par with commercial real estate, according it
higher risk weight and provisioning.
The RBI allows ECB in real estate projects involving integrated townships of 100 acres
or more. In real estate projects, a large portion of money is required for land acquisition,
which is classified as working capital. But end-use restrictions like not allowing ECB
money to be used for working capital take away its attractiveness.
Real Estate Laws in India
Investing in real estate in India require compliance with various laws which run into
dozens, some of them more than 100 years old and some very new. In addition to federal
laws of India, there are many state laws governing real estate transactions and
investment. The federal laws governing real estate include:
Indian Transfer of Property Act
The Transfer of Property Act governs the transfer of property by various means. Sales,
mortgages (other than by way of deposit of title deeds) and exchanges of immovable
property are required to be registered by virtue of the Transfer of Property Act. Therefore,
all the above documents must be in writing and registered.
47
on
account
of
instruments
in
(2)
above.
(d) leases of immovable property from year to year, or for any term exceeding one year,
or reserving a yearly rent
Sales, mortgages (other than by way of deposit of title deeds) and exchanges of
immovable property are required to be registered by virtue of the Transfer of Property
Act. Evidently, therefore, all the above documents have to be in writing.
Section 17 of the Act provides for optional registration. An unregistered document will
not affect the property comprised in it, nor be received as evidence of any transaction
affecting such property (except as evidence of a contract in a suit for specific
performance or as evidence of part-performance under the Transfer of Property Act or as
collateral), unless it has been registered. Thus the doctrine of part performance dealt with
under Section 53 A of the Transfer of Property Act and the provision of Section 49 of the
Registration Act (which provide that an unregistered document cannot be admissible as
evidence in a court of law except as secondary evidence under the Indian Evidence Act)
together protect the buyer in possession of an unregistered sale deed and cannot be
dispossessed. The net effect has been that a large number of property transactions have
been accomplished without proper registration. Further other instruments such as
Agreement to Sell, General Power of Attorney and Will have been indiscriminately used
to effect change of ownership. Therefore, investors in real estate have to be careful in
their due diligence.
48
This legislation fixed a ceiling on the vacant urban land that a 'person' in urban
agglomerations can acquire and hold. A person is defined to include an individual, a
family, a firm, a company, or an association or body of individuals, whether incorporated
or not. This ceiling limit ranges from 500-2,000 square meters. Excess vacant land is
either to be surrendered to the Competent Authority appointed under the Act for a small
compensation, or to be developed by its holder only for specified purposes. The Act
provides for appropriate documents to show that the provisions of this Act are not
attracted or should be produced to the Registering officer before registering instruments
compulsorily registrable under the Registration Act.
This legislation was repealed by the federal government in 1999. The Repeal Act,
however, shall not affect the vesting of the vacant land, which has already been taken
possession by the State Government or any person duly authorized by the State
Government in this regard under the provisions of Urban Land Act. The repeal of the Act,
it is believed, has eliminated the large amount of litigation and released huge chunks of
land into the market. However the repeal of the Act has not been carried out in all states.
Initially the repeal Act was applicable in Haryana, Punjab and all the Union Territories.
Subsequently, it has been adopted by the State Governments of Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat,
Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Maharashtra,
Orissa
and
West
Bengal
have
not
adopted
the
Repeal
Act
so
far.
Stamp Duty
Stamp duty is required to be paid on all documents which are registered and the rate
varies from state to state. With stamp duty rates of 13 per cent in Delhi, 14.5 per cent in
Uttar Pradesh and 12.5 per cent in Haryana, India has perhaps one of the highest levels of
stamp duty. Some states even have double stamp incidence, first on land and then on its
development.
49
Rent legislation in India has been in existence for a very long time. Rent control by the
government initially came as a temporary measure to protect the exploitation of tenants
by landlords after the Second World War. However these rent control acts became almost
a permanent feature. Rent legislation provides payment of fair rent to landlords and
protection of tenants against eviction. Besides, it effectively allows the tenant to alienate
rented property.
Property Tax
Property tax is a levy charged by the municipal authorities for the upkeep of basic civic
services in the city. In India it is the owners of property who are liable for the payment of
municipal taxes. Generally, the property tax is levied on the basis of reasonable rent at
which the property might be let from year to year. The reasonable rent can be actual rent
if it is found to be fair and reasonable. In the case of properties not rented, the rental
value is to be estimated on the basis of letting rates in the locality.
Foreign Funds Investors in India: RBI puts curbs on FII entry in real estate IPOs
The foreign portfolio investment in real estate in India has come under regulatory glare.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has thrown in a caveat on FII subscription to public
equity offerings by real estate companies. The RBI is of the opinion that such firms can
sell their initial or follow-on public stock offerings to FIIs, only if the real estate projects
being developed fulfill the conditions for foreign direct investment. The central bank,
which has the last word on cross-border fund inflow, has indicated this to investment
bankers and advisors of real estate firms planning to tap the capital market. One of the
companies planning an issuance has already dropped the idea of marketing shares of its
forthcoming equity issue to FIIs; while another firm has positioned itself as a
construction company (one which doesn't own the land as distinct from a real estate
company) to sidestep the restriction. The issue has boiled down to subtle differences
between FII and FDI.
50
The facts are: real estate projects can attract FDI up to 100 percent, subject to certain
conditions which were spelt out by the government in April '05. These conditions include
minimum area to be developed, minimum capitalization, no repatriation of original
investment before 3 years and ban on sell of
under-developed plots. If a project meets
these conditions, the concerned company A proper legal advise regarding corporate
can attract FII subscription up to 24 percent planning and tax planning should be sought
equity, and later revise it to the sectoral FDI by foreign investors the real estate sector in
cap, which is 100 percent in this case. India.
_____****_____
However, for a company not willing to meet
the stringent project conditions, the FII route
could be used to overcome the rules and bring in foreign investment. All the company
needs to do is get FIIs that are registered with SEBI to invest in the IPO. This is what the
RBI is possibly objecting to. Interestingly, the regulator is not averse to FIIs buying
shares in the secondary market. In other words, even though FIIs cannot subscribe to a
real estate firm's IPO (if the project concerned is non-FDI compliant), they can buy
shares
through
registered
broker
51
once
the
company
gets
listed.
DLF is India's largest real estate company in terms of revenues, earnings, market
capitalisation and developable area. In line with its current expansion plans, DLF
has over 751 million sq. ft. of development across its businesses, including
developed, on-going and planned projects. This land bank is spread over 32 cities,
mostly in metros and key urban areas across India. Already a major player in
locations across the country, DLF, with over six decades of experience, is capitalising
on emerging market opportunities to deliver high-end facilities and projects to its
wide base of customers by constantly upgrading its internal skills and resource
capabilities.
A roster of world-reputed businesses chooses DLF to jointly venture with, to seek growth
in India. Among them, Laing O'Rourke- famous UK based construction company
credited with construction of Dubai International Airport, London's Millenium Tower,
etc, will construct all DLF's landmark projects. Together DLF-Laing O' Rourke shall
build the expressways, ports and other megastructures of India's new economy. Nakheel
of Dubai are partnering with DLF for townships of pathbreaking concepts in India. WSP
Group Plc is also partnering DLF, providing Management and consultancy to the built
and natural environment. DLF has also tied up with Hilton Hotels to jointly develop
world class hotels in India. It is more than market dynamics however. DLF management
constantly upgrades professional resources to construct responsive strategies, to adapt to
local preferences; to deliver high quality, in all its projects and services to a wide
customer base.
All the intensified growth underlines DLF's commitment to quality, trust and customer
sensitivity and, delivering on its promise with agility and financial prudence. This, in
turn, has earned DLF the coveted 'Superbrand' ranking for three years consecutively,
including the current year.
The Homes business unit involves a wide range of products including condominiums,
duplexes, row hoses and apartments of varying sizes, with a focus on the higher end of
the market. DLF has 214 msf of developed area under homes and residential plots.
52
Currently, DLF has more than 477 msf of land resource targeted towards residential
business.
DLF's office segment is one of the group's most admired verticals. Nearly 40 msf of
ongoing projects forms a strong portfolio for DLF offices, having reached a mature
delivery platform of 11-12 msf on an annual basis. Current land resource owned by DLF
for development of offices across the country is 164 msf approximately.
With a booming retail environment on the horizon, this is a major thrust area for the
Group and DLF is actively creating new shopping and entertainment spaces all over the
country. The company has 12 mn sq. ft of retail projects under construction and owns
land resource of another 92 msf for development in metros and other key urban
destinations across the country. These include categories of prime downtown shopping
districts, shopping centres and super luxury malls, amongst others.
With the growth of the Indian economy and the resulting increase in corporate and
consumer incomes, as well as foreign investment, DLF sees significant opportunities for
growth in its three primary businesses. DLF's mission is to build a world-class real estate
development company with the highest standards of professionalism, ethics and customer
service and to thereby contribute to and benefit from the growth of the Indian economy.
Vision, Mission & Values
DLF Vision
To contribute significantly to building the new India and become the worlds most valuable
real estate company.
DLF Mission
To build world-class real-estate concepts across six business lines with the highest
standards of professionalism, ethics, quality and customer service.
DLF Values
53
Compliance and respect for all community, environmental and legal requirements
MILESTONES
The largest real estate developer in India with 266 million square feet worth of
developed and under development project.
54
55
56
Balance sheet
(Rs crore)
Mar ' 14
Mar ' 13
Mar ' 12
Owner's fund
Equity share capital
340.96
305.88
37.77
10,928.19
346.92
607.16
4,945.91
3,440.49
19,655.55
6,242.81
526.48
7,422.10
3,010.93
2.99
3,658.85
Gross block
1,533.72
Less
:
revaluation
reserve
Less : accumulated
59.34
depreciation
Net block
1,474.37
365.58
108.91
37.01
29.24
328.57
79.67
665.03
456.73
Investments
769.17
1,397.28
18,345.94
9,442.25
3,092.12
3,786.38
& provisions
Total net current assets
14,559.56
Miscellaneous expenses
not written
Total
19,655.55
3,782.93
1,366.95
5,659.32
1,725.17
7,422.10
3,658.85
Sources of funds
Uses of funds
Fixed assets
1,839.8
57
Notes:
Book value of unquoted
investments
Market value of quoted
1,808.92
30.92
investments
Contingent liabilities
3,047.92
Number
of
equity
17048.33
sharesoutstanding (Lacs)
758.98
1,397.28
10.19
3,818.81
1,643.36
15294.21
377.68
(Rs crore)
Mar ' 14
Mar ' 13
Mar ' 12
5,496.96
1,101.66
953.46
6.06
8.72
2.58
2,141.29
237.75
577.64
103.78
45.70
44.82
63.42
16.76
26.74
88.51
23.13
443.22
658.44
646.85
306.61
327.67
191.56
986.11
356.25
9.44
620.42
214.56
498.17
146.15
3.90
348.12
120.47
128.16
expenses
Expenses capitalised Cost of sales
2,424.98
Operating profit
3,071.98
Other
recurring
560.74
income
Adjusted PBDIT
3,632.72
Financial expenses
447.65
Depreciation
25.68
Other write offs
41.79
Adjusted PBT
3,117.59
Tax charges
543.52
58
Adjusted PAT
2,574.07
Non recurring items 0.16
Other non cash
0.36
adjustments
Reported net profit
2,574.59
Earnigs
before
2,843.86
appropriation
Equity dividend
681.93
Preference dividend Dividend tax
115.89
Retained earnings
2,046.03
405.86
-0.19
227.65
-0.24
1.24
1.11
406.91
228.52
930.67
545.53
340.97
57.95
531.76
1.55
0.22
543.76
Share holding
Share
holding
pattern as on :
Face value
31/12/2014
30/06/2014
2.00
2.00
No. Of Shares
Promoter's holding
Indian Promoters
1502823120
Sub total
1502823120
Non promoter's holding
Institutional investors
Banks Fin. Inst. and
3834256
Insurance
FII's
116572561
Sub total
124231366
% Holding
No. Of Shares
88.26
88.26
1503043120
1503043120
88.16
88.16
0.23
3669369
0.22
6.85
7.30
111662961
122385231
6.55
7.18
59
Holding
Other investors
Private
Corporate
Bodies
NRI's/OCB's/Foreign
Others
Others
Sub total
General public
Grand total
Report card
Other investors
14496641
0.85
18665989
1.09
1759051
0.10
1689788
0.10
955081
17083973
58446654
1702585113
0.06
1.00
3.43
99.99
1268416
21497393
57780136
1704705880
0.07
1.26
3.39
99.99
PE ratio
EPS (Rs)
Sales (Rs crore)
Face Value (Rs)
Net profit margin (%)
Last dividend (%)
Return on average equity
11.26
15.19
424.41
2
42.49
100
22.84
Our Journey
60
20/03/09
Mar, 08
Dec, 08
Mar, 08
04/06/08
Mar, 08
There are few parallels in the annals of the Indian real estate and construction industry
that emulate the success trail blazed by Parsvnath Developers Limited. Over the past two
decades, our company has emerged as one of the most progressive and multi-faceted real
estate and construction entities in the country. Through the years, we at Parsvnath have
stayed true to our commitment to `building a better world by transforming barren tracts
into landscaped green belts housing world class commercial, residential and recreational
properties.
Parsvnath is a company whose business philosophy lies in the commitment to creating
architectural marvels using state-of-the-art technology and global architectural,
construction and business practices. We are passionate about providing cost-effective
and holistic solutions for our customers while creating and adding value for our partners
and stakeholders. Our unwavering focus on these factors catapulted Parsvnath
Developers Limited into the top echelons of the Indian Real Estate and Construction
Industry in 2007.
With a pan-India presence in over 51 cities in 18 states, we are steadfastly focused on
continuing to create and build dreamscapes that transform lives and the world around us
be it through contemporary residential spaces, state-of-the-art office complexes,
luxurious shopping malls and hypermarkets, posh hotels, futuristic multiplexes, and ultra
modern IT Parks and special economic zones.
61
62
At the end of the day, our vision is about making the world a better place to live in; to
transform and uplift quality of living and lifestyles of each and every individual that
comes in contact with us.
Our Mission
Committed to build a better world
Balance sheet
Sources of funds
Owner's fund
Equity share capital
Share application money
Preference share capital
Reserves & surplus
Loan funds
Secured loans
Unsecured loans
Total
Uses of funds
Fixed assets
Gross block
Less : revaluation reserve
Less : accumulated depreciation
Net block
(Rs crore)
Mar ' 14
Mar ' 13
Mar ' 12
184.70
1,621.90
184.70
1,277.98
98.91
102.24
1,604.42
97.85
3,508.86
1,011.83
2,474.52
235.85
437.00
164.78
45.31
119.47
94.39
23.10
71.29
44.65
9.02
35.63
63
Capital work-in-progress
101.51
Investments
80.57
Net current assets
Current assets, loans & advances 4,582.87
Less : current liabilities &
1,375.56
provisions
Total net current assets
3,207.32
Miscellaneous expenses not writtenTotal
3,508.86
Notes:
Book
value
of
unquoted
80.57
investments
Market
value
of
quoted
investments
Contingent liabilities
276.87
Number
of
equity
1846.96
sharesoutstanding (Lacs)
Profit loss account
38.73
82.86
17.27
4.20
3,200.65
892.54
919.01
512.64
2,281.64
2,474.52
379.90
437.00
82.84
4.18
0.14
0.16
119.26
47.44
1846.96
989.14
Mar ' 14
(Rs crore)
Mar ' 13
1,726.25
1,236.14
643.83
Material consumed
Manufacturing expenses
Personnel expenses
1,077.86
54.13
834.71
28.73
465.79
7.56
Selling expenses
57.74
63.22
46.69
Adminstrative expenses
60.66
46.31
22.36
Expenses capitalised
-107.58
-93.34
-43.13
Cost of sales
1,142.81
879.63
499.27
Operating profit
583.44
356.51
144.56
47.36
24.54
9.93
Adjusted PBDIT
630.80
381.04
154.50
Financial expenses
39.11
19.30
2.69
Depreciation
23.78
14.14
5.88
0.03
Mar ' 12
Income:
Operating income
Expenses
64
--
Adjusted PBT
567.91
347.60
145.91
Tax charges
178.08
70.28
39.55
Adjusted PAT
389.82
277.32
106.36
18.63
0.31
0.28
-5.85
-0.12
408.74
271.78
106.25
408.74
271.78
106.25
Equity dividend
55.41
46.17
6.52
Preference dividend
Dividend tax
9.42
7.85
0.91
Retained earnings
343.91
217.75
98.81
Share holding
Share holding pattern as on : 31/12/2014
Face value
10.00
No.
Of%
Shares
Promoter's holding
Indian Promoters
Sub total
Non promoter's holding
Institutional investors
Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance
FII's
Sub total
Other investors
Private Corporate Bodies
NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others
Direcctors/Employees
Others
Sub total
General public
Grand total
30/09/2014
10.00
No.
Of%
Holding Shares
30/06/2014
10.00
No.
Of%
Holding Shares
Holding
148328800 80.31
148328800 80.31
148328800 80.31
148328800 80.31
148328800 80.31
148328800 80.31
251936
1596057
1909455
248426
4531702
6587667
284551
6114838
7674673
0.14
0.86
1.03
9455500 5.12
625518
0.34
41600
0.02
1017131 0.55
11138749 6.03
23318196 12.63
184695200 100.00
Report card
65
0.13
2.45
3.57
7705001 4.17
497309
0.27
41600
0.02
1129158 0.61
9372068 5.07
20406665 11.05
184695200 100.00
0.15
3.31
4.16
8262112 4.47
503138
0.27
41600
0.02
1161815 0.63
9967665 5.40
18724062 10.14
184695200 100.00
PE ratio
1.58
20/03/09
EPS (Rs)
22.12
Mar, 08
87.65
Dec, 08
10
23.04
Mar, 08
30
20/06/08
22.62
Mar, 08
ABOUT OMAXE
BACKGROUND
:::
The company was originally set up as Omaxe Builders Private limited in 1989,
promoted by Shri. Rohtas Goel , the founder, to undertake construction &
contracting business. The company further changed its constitution to a limited
company known as Omaxe Construction Ltd., in 1999. The name of the company
has now changed to OMAXE LTD from 2006. The company began life as a civil
construction and contracting company, has Successfully executed more than 120
66
his
motto
Turning
Dreams
Into
Realty
Omaxe has received a number of awards from the industry, recognition of its
continued efforts towards achieving excellence and quality. The company became
the first Construction Company of northern India to receive an ISO 9001:2000
Certification.
The company which was founded as a civil construction and contracting
organization in 1989 and subsequently diversified its business to focus on Real
Estate Development from the year 2001, to capture the opportunity offered by the
growing Real Estate markets in India , is today among the large Real Estate
Development companies in India.
The company in a short span of 5 years has completed and delivered 11 projects
consisting of 8 residential, 1 Integrated Township and 2 commercial covering
approx 5.59 million sq. ft of area. The company currently has 54 projects under
development.
These
include
23
group
housing
projects,16
integrated
67
68
Mission
Our Mission is to bring quality Residential & Commercial real
estate of international standards, comparable with global
developers
within
the
reach
of
all.
Balance sheet
Sources of funds
Owner's fund
Equity share capital
Share application money
Preference share capital
Reserves & surplus
Loan funds
Secured loans
Unsecured loans
Total
Uses of funds
Fixed assets
Gross block
Less : revaluation reserve
Less : accumulated depreciation
(Rs crore)
Mar ' 14
Mar ' 13
Mar ' 12
173.57
0.75
1,022.93
154.95
166.32
77.48
132.13
1,586.38
192.75
2,976.37
883.30
30.77
1,235.34
371.09
0.48
581.18
43.56
18.20
38.26
12.58
25.84
8.32
69
Net block
25.36
Capital work-in-progress
Investments
346.54
Net current assets
Current assets, loans & advances 3,187.14
Less : current liabilities &
582.66
provisions
Total net current assets
2,604.47
Miscellaneous
expenses
not
written
Total
2,976.37
Notes:
Book
value
of
unquoted
266.49
investments
Market
value
of
quoted
80.05
investments
Contingent liabilities
4.70
Number
of
equity
1735.67
sharesoutstanding (Lacs)
25.68
0.92
29.54
17.52
0.29
13.15
1,833.67
1,155.39
661.50
605.16
1,172.17
550.23
7.04
1,235.34
581.18
29.54
12.95
0.22
4.20
3.51
1549.53
774.77
(Rs crore)
Mar ' 14
Mar ' 13
Mar ' 12
1,789.50
940.87
825.15
112.94
1,074.58
55.12
65.58
57.97
-232.05
1,134.15
655.35
22.49
-131.30
790.44
38.24
111.23
47.69
-189.94
666.36
274.51
6.61
-234.40
861.09
18.83
34.97
24.78
-58.59
646.68
178.47
3.86
70
- -
Adjusted PBDIT
Financial expenses
Depreciation
Other write offs
Adjusted PBT
Tax charges
Adjusted PAT
Non recurring items
Other non cash adjustments
Reported net profit
Earnigs before appropriation
Equity dividend
Preference dividend
Dividend tax
Retained earnings
677.85
199.80
5.25
472.80
93.69
379.11
-0.23
19.65
398.53
476.49
43.39
7.37
425.73
281.12
94.69
3.59
182.84
44.38
138.46
0.04
-13.67
124.83
250.53
11.63
1.63
237.27
182.32
20.45
2.28
159.59
32.43
127.16
0.04
1.20
128.40
152.64
3.26
0.46
148.92
Share holding
Share holding pattern as on : 31/12/2014
Face value
10.00
No.
Of%
Shares
Promoter's holding
Indian Promoters
Sub total
Non promoter's holding
Institutional investors
Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance
FII's
Sub total
Other investors
Private Corporate Bodies
30/09/2014
10.00
No.
Of%
Holding Shares
30/06/2014
10.00
No.
Of%
Holding Shares
Holding
143372100 82.60
143372100 82.60
143372100 82.60
143372100 82.60
143372100 82.60
143372100 82.60
3159226
807808
3967034
1.82
0.47
2.29
3277044
857259
4258453
1.89
0.49
2.45
3435247
1023214
4718461
1.98
0.59
2.72
5562421
3.20
5365467
3.09
5731086
3.30
71
NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others
Direcctors/Employees
Others
Sub total
General public
Grand total
251720
0.15
11581380 6.67
394121
0.23
17789642 10.25
8438224 4.86
173567000 100.00
197972
0.11
11581380 6.67
510964
0.29
17655783 10.17
8280664 4.77
173567000 100.00
160834
0.09
11581380 6.67
427719
0.25
17901019 10.31
7575420 4.36
173567000 100.00
Report card
PE ratio
1.84
19/03/15
EPS (Rs)
23.20
Mar, 14
151.18
Dec, 14
10
22.00
Mar, 14
25
26/05/14
33.33
Mar, 14
JUSTIFICATION OF STUDY
As we all know that India is one of the largest growing countries of the world. Real estate
is one of the largest booming sectors in the Indian economy. The future prospects for real
estate sector are very good.
72
Today also many investors do not want to invest their money in the stock market as
the risk is very high and there is large amount of volatility in Indian stock market. Due to
this reason they invest their money in other areas like mutual funds, banking institutions
and post office a/c schemes where risk is very less and they are expecting an assured
return.
In the present study, we analyze the liquidity and stock returns of different equity shares
of real estate sector in the economy. We find out by way of present study, whether we are
getting sufficient returns on equity shares of real estate sector or not. We analyze the
various factors that affect the liquidity and stock returns of various companies under this
study.
I will analyze the risk and return associated with various equity stocks of real estate
sector companies and evaluates the volatility of equity shares. We apply various
analytical & statistical tools that help in analysis part of study.
73
PRIMARY OBJECTIVES:
SECONDARY OBJECTIVES:
.
Constructs of the Study
Liquidity
The liquidity factor is based on the trading frequency, average daily trades and average
daily turnover.
The scrip should have been traded on each and every trading day for the last one year.
The liquidity depends upon the marketing and trading facilities. If a portion of the
investment could be converted into cash without much loss of time, it would help the
74
investor meet the emergencies. Stocks are liquid only if they command good market by
providing adequate return through dividends and capital appreciation
Return
Investor always expects a good rate of return from their investments. Rate of return could
be defined as the total income the investor receives during the holding period stated as a
percentage of the purchasing price at the beginning of the holding period.
Risk
Risk of holding securities is related with the probability of actual return becoming less
than the expected return.
Investment risk is just as important as measuring its expected rate of return because
minimizing risk and maximizing the rate of return are interrelated objectives in the
investment management.
Systematic risk:
The market risk, as it is called, this is the variation in the return on any scrip due to
market movements. For example, suppose the Government announces a corporate tax cut
or rise across the board, it is going to effect all the stocks in the market in the same way.
This is the systematic risk of scrip, which exists because of market movements.
There is nothing much one can do about systematic risk of a security because it arises due
to some extraneous variables. But there still exists some techniques, which help to hedge
against the systematic risk of a security.A good measure of an assets systematic risk is its
Beta. Beta: Beta measures the systematic risk and show how price of security respond to
the market foresees. It is calculated by relating the return on security with return for
market Beta is calculated by regressing the returns of a particular asset on market returns.
75
It can be interpreted as, say the beta of a stock is 1.25, then whenever the market moves
by 1%, the stock will move by 1.25%.
= n XY ( x y) / n x2 (x)
Where,
X =Index return
Y = Stock return
Unsystematic risk:
It is
is the variation in the return of a scrip due to that scrip specific factors or
movements. For example, say the Government announces tax sops to companies in a
particular sector, it is going to effect the prices of the stocks of companies which are
operating
in
that
sector
and
not
all
the
stocks.
Measuring risk by ALPHA It measures the stock unsystematic return and it is average
return independent of market return. It is calculated by comparing the stock actual
performance with the risk adjusted expected return
= Y-X
Where,
X =Index return
Y =Stock return
1) Alpha
76
2) Beta
3) Sharpe Ratio
4) Treynor Ratio
5) Jenson
Independent variables
1) Market Price of share
2) Stock Return
3) Bse Sensex Return
4) Risk Free rate of interest
77
LITERATURE REVIEW
Books:
1.
Wilkinson & Bhandarkar: In this section various parts of research and research
methodology is given which tells about the techniques of doing research.
2.
3.
Beri G.C.-. - Marketing Research 3rd edition: This book helped in understanding
the different research designs and analytical tools used here.
4.
Luck J. David: from this book I got light on the meaning of the marketing
research.
5.
A.Bernstein Leobold and J.wild John :This text book helps me to understand
the major concept like debt equity ratio and retained earnings.
6.
Gupta C.B.:- By studying this text book, I come to know about the personnel at
various levels in the organization & responsibilities of the key personnel towards
these employees and basic knowledge about the various departments of the
manufacturing unit.
7.
Fisher & Jordan (p223-228)-This book has been used to calculate beta and alpha
of various securities.
8.
R.K.Mishra(p341-342) In
10.
78
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
JOURNALS and MAGAZINES:1. Finance India, Indian institute of finance, real estate opening doors to
other sectors growth vol. XXI, pp 949-963.
79
Magazines:
1. Business India, Aug.2008, The new land barons pp58-59
2. Business world , Nov.2008- Rajas of land pp38-40
3. Outlook July 2007 Opportunities in real estate sector pp52-53
4. Business today Aug.2007 , Booming real estate pp45-47
Websites:
80
This
site
gives
informations regarding the stocks bid and ask price and their
returns.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/bse-nse/stockliveprice/constructioncontractingrealestate/omaxerealestate/IRE01:
- This is site of money control from here I took stock price of
omaxe for the last 13 month starting from January 2008 to January
2009.
Research is a systematic and continues method of defining a problem, collecting the facts
and analyzing them, reaching conclusion forming generalizations.
81
82
The research problems, in general refers to sum difficulty with a researcher experience in
the contest of either a particular a theoretical situation and want to obtain a salutation for
same. The present project has been undertaken to do study of volatility, liquidity trends &
risk , return analysis of equity shares in stock market of India in realty sector(DLF
LTD.,PARSVNATH DEVELOPERS & OMAXE)
RESEARCH DESIGN
A research is the arrangement of the conditions for the collections and analysis of the data
in a manner that aims to combine relevance to the research purpose with economy in
procedure. In fact, the research is design is the conceptual structure within which research
is conducted; it constitutes the blue print of the collection, measurement and analysis of
the data. As search the design includes an outline of what the researcher will do from
writing the hypothesis and its operational implication to the final analysis of data.
The design is such studies must be rigid and not flexible and most focus attention on the
following;
What is the study about?
Why is the study being made?
Where will the study be carried out?
What type of data is required?
Where can be required data be found?
What period of time will the study include?
What will be sample design?
83
Following questions have to be considered while sampling designWhat is the relevant population?
What is the parameter of interest?
What is the sampling frame?
84
Observation Method
Secondary Data
Websites of companies , some other sites are also searched to find data.
85
The data collected in the aforesaid manner have been tabulated in condensed from
to draw the meaningful results. The different techniques are adopted to analyze
the data. All the data and material is arranged through internal resources and the
last part of the project consists of the conclusions drawn from the report, a brief
summary and recommendation and giving the final touch to the report by stating a
conclusion.
STATISTICAL TOOLS
86
Statistical tools are the basic measures, which helps in defining the relation between
different items, present, past and future trend of the future trend of the particular business
etc. A wide variety of statistical tools are available and any of them can be used by any
businessman depending upon the nature of his trade
During my study the tools that I am likely to use are as follows: Correlation
Regression
Trend Analysis
Anova
PCA
CORRELATION
Some important definitions of correlation are given below:
87
Correlation analysis deals with the association between two or more variables- Simpson
and Kafka.
If two or more quantities vary in sympathy, so that movement in one tends to be
accompanied by corresponding movements in the other, then they are said to be
correlated-Conner.
Correlation analysis attempts to determine the degree of relationship between variables.
WHY TO USE CORRELATION: Different type of statistical tool are available but my
main motive is to find out the relationship between reality index with Sensex, Nifty
thats why I use this Particular type of tool only.
MULTIPLE REGRESSION
DEFINITION OF REGRESSION
Regression is the measure of the average relationship between two or more variables.
M.M. BLAIR
In Multiple regression, we study three or more variables and we consider variable as
independent variable and others as dependent variables. Multiple regression analysis is
used to estimate the most probable value of the dependent variable for given values of the
independent variables. After PCA I will find out most important factor.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
88
Chi-Square is useful to find out whether there is significant difference between the two
variables or not..Here I will use the null hypothesis( H 0) that there is no significant
difference between share price movement of companies under study and bse index.
It is an important statistical tool to find out important independent factors for my study.
Factors to be used P/E, ROI, Systematic(beta) and Unsystematic risk(alpha). Dependent
factor will be stock return.
T-Test
T-test is a small sample test. It was developed by William Gosset in 1908. He published
this test under the pen name of Student. Therefore, it is known as Students ttest.
Applications of t-test:
Test of hypothesis about the difference between the two means in case of
independent samples.
Test of hypothesis about the difference between the two means in case of
dependent samples.
T-test will be useful to find out whether there is significant difference between the
two variables or not i.e. between Market index and Stock price of particular stock.
89
ANOVA
ANOVA is essentially a procedure for testing the difference among different groups of
data for homogeneity.
Null Hypothesis: Let us take the null hypothesis that there is no significant difference
between the variables i.e. Market Capitalization and Stock Price.
Dependent variable: Market Capitalization
Independent Variable: Stock Price
90
Analytical Tools:-
where,
S = Sharpe's Index
rp = average monthly return of fund. rf = risk free return *.
* risk free return (rf) is taken as 7.73% per annum
2) TREYNOR'S PERFORMANCE MEASURES FOR PORTFOLIOS
Jack Trey nor, as measures by portfolio beta coefficients put an index of portfolio
performance that is based on systematic risk, forward. It is used to rank the interest
performance of different assets. It is a risk - adjusted rate of return measure than is
calculated by dividing the assets risk premium by their beta coefficient.
Tn = rP rf /p
where
Tn = Treynor's index
rp = average return on portfolio
rf = risk free return
p = beta coefficient of portfolio.
Standard Deviation: It is used to measure the variation in the individual return from
the average expected return over a certain period. Standard deviation is used in the
91
92
Dates
30-06-14
31-12-14
Company
DLF
Volume
Market
1396526
5232748
Stock
Rs.396.20
Rs.281.90
93
price
of
= -274.7 /28.85
= - 9.522
Dates
30-06-14
31-12-14
Company
OMAXE
Volume
Market
45204
118033
Stock
Rs.131.50
Rs.64
price
of
= -3.14
Dates
Company
Volume
Market
30-06-14
31-12-14
PARSVNATH
344254
225875
Stock
Rs.121.80
Rs.47.25
DEVELOPERS
price
of
95
31/01/2013
29/02/2013
31/03/2013
30/04/2013
31/05/2013
30/06/2013
31/07/2013
31/08/2014
30/09/2013
31/10/2013
30/11/2013
31/12/2013
31/01/2014
Sensex
17,648.71
17,578.72
15,644.44
17,287.31
16,415.57
13,461.60
14,355.75
14,564.53
12,860.43
9,788.06
9,092.72
9,647.31
9,424.24
0.15
121.22
110.25
25.40
323.64
44.09
2.11
136.89
570.73
50.41
37.09
5.34
(X) =
Total
X = -54.75
1,429.32
_
X = -4.56
Y = -9.14
BETA = n XY-X.Y
nX2 - ( X )2
=27403.41/14154.28
= 1.93
Standard Deviation
y
N
= 8244.05/12
96
DLF
812.55
780.55
646.50
705.25
587.45
396.20
509.30
493.30
352.40
220.25
198.25
281.90
168
Stock Return(Y) Y2
XY
-3.94
-17.18
9.09
-16.17
-32.33
28.29
-3.14
-28.56
-37.5
-9.99
42.19
-40.40
15.52
295.15
82.63
261.47
1,045.23
800.32
9.86
815.67
1406.25
99.80
1779.99
1632.16
(Y) =
1.54
189.16
95.45
81.5
581.62
187.85
-4.55
334.2
895.9
70.92
256.94
93.32
XY =
(Y) = -109.64
8,244.05 2,783.85
= 26.21
Alpha = Y-X
= -9.14 - 1.93(-4.56)
= -0.34
SHARPE'S INDEX S = Rp Rf /p
Rf = 6.5%
p = 26.21
Rp = Y = -9.14
S = (-9.14-0.065)/26.21
S= -0.35
TREYNOR
Tn = Rp Rf /bp
p = 1.93
= (-9.14-0.065)/1.93
= -4.769
JENSEN
p = (Rp-Rf)- p(Rm - Rf )
Rm = -4.56
p = (-9.14-0.065) 1.93(-4.56-0.065)
p = -9.205+8.926
p = -0.279
97
31/01/2013
29/02/2013
31/03/2013
30/04/2013
31/05/2013
30/06/2013
31/07/2013
31/08/2014
30/09/2013
31/10/2013
30/11/2013
31/12/2013
31/01/2014
BSE Index
17,648.71
17,578.72
15,644.44
17,287.31
16,415.57
13,461.60
14,355.75
14,564.53
12,860.43
9,788.06
9,092.72
9,647.31
9,424.24
0.15
121.22
110.25
25.40
323.64
44.09
2.11
136.89
570.73
50.41
37.09
5.34
(X) =
Total
X = -54.75
1,429.32
X = -4.56
Y= -12.4
BETA = n XY-X.Y
nX2-(X)2
= 27747.1/14154.24
= 1.96
Standard Deviation = y
N
= 7703.16/12
= 25.34
Alpha = Y-X
= -12.4 1.96(-4.56)
= -3.46
98
Parsvnath Return
272.35
268.70
209.75
232
196.75
121.80
111.75
115.9
90.9
40.55
35.3
47.25
36.70
Stock Return(Y) Y2
-1.34
-21.94
10.60
-15.19
-38.09
-8.2
3.71
-21.57
-55.39
-12.94
33.85
-22.33
1.8
481.3
112.36
230.73
1,450.8
67.24
13.76
465.26
3,068.05
167.44
1145.82
498.6
(Y) =
(Y) = -148.83
7,703.16
Sharpe's index S = Rp Rf /p
Rf = 6.5%
p = 25.34
Rp = Y = -12.4
S = (-12.4-.065)/25.34
S = -0.49
TREYNOR Tn = RP Rf /bp
p = 1.96
= (-12.4-.065)/1.96
= -6.35
JENSEN
p = (Rp-Rf)- p(Rm - Rf )
Rm = -4.56
p = -12.465-1.96 (-4.56-.065 )
p = -12.465+9.065
p = -3.4
99
Date
31/01/2013
29/02/2013
31/03/2013
30/04/2013
31/05/2013
30/06/2013
31/07/2013
31/08/2014
30/09/2013
31/10/2013
30/11/2013
31/12/2013
31/01/2014
BSE Index
17,648.71
17,578.72
15,644.44
17,287.31
16,415.57
13,461.60
14,355.75
14,564.53
12,860.43
9,788.06
9,092.72
9,647.31
9,424.24
0.15
121.22
110.25
25.40
323.64
44.09
2.11
136.89
570.73
50.41
37.09
5.34
(X) =
Total
X = -54.75
1,429.32
X = -4.56
Y= -11.08
BETA = n XY-X.Y
nX2-(X)2
= 24005.8/14154.24
= 1.69
Standard Deviation = y
N
= 6127.58/12
= 22.59
Alpha = Y-X
= -11.08 1.69(-4.56)
100
Omaxe Return
283.85
255.10
207.05
239.45
203.95
131.50
119.05
122.15
96.60
57.85
47.70
64
52.4
Stock Return(Y) Y2
-10.13
-18.84
15.65
-14.83
-35.52
-9.47
2.60
-20.9
-40.11
-17.5
34.17
-18.1
102.6
354.95
244.9
219.93
1,261.7
89.7
6.76
436.8
1,608.8
306.25
1167.58
327.61
(Y) =
3
2
1
7
6
-6
3
2
9
1
2
4
(Y) = -132.98
6,127.58 2
= -3.37
Sharpe's index S = Rp Rf /p
Rf = 6.5%
p = 22.59
Rp = Y = -11.08
S = (-11.08-.065)/22.59
S = -0.49
TREYNOR Tn = RP Rf /bp
p = 1.69
= (-11.08-.065)/1.69
= -6.59
JENSEN
p = (Rp-Rf)- p(Rm - Rf )
Rm = -4.56
p = -11.145-1.69 (-4.56-.065 )
p = -11.145+7.816
p = -3.33
101
SHARPE INDEX
-0.35
-0.49
-0.49
SHARPE INDEX
0
-0.1
-0.2
SHARPE INDEX
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
DLF
OMAXE
PARSVNATH
102
therefore better as it represents a higher return generated per unit of risk. As per this DLF
has highest Sharpe Ratio this indicate DLFs stock generate highest return per unit of
risk.
Analysis of return through Treynor Ratio
Real estate stocks
DLF
OMAXE
PARSVNATH
TREYNOR INDEX
-4.76
-6.59
-6.35
Interpretation:The Treynor ratio is a measurement of the returns earned in excess of that which could
have been earned on a risk less investment (i.e. Treasury Bill) (per each unit of market
risk assumed). The Treynor ratio (sometimes called reward-to-volatility ratio) relates
excess return over the risk-free rate to the additional risk taken; however systematic risk
instead of total risk is used. Higher the Treynor ratio betters the performance under
103
analysis. So as per our analysis we can conclude that as DLF has highest Treynor ratio so
it generates excess return over the risk-free rate to the additional risk taken.
JENSEN INDEX
-0.279
-3.33
-3.4
Interpretation:-
Jensen's alpha (or Jensen's Performance Index, ex-post alpha) is used to determine
the excess return of a security or portfolio of securities over the security's theoretical
expected return. All, riskier assets will have higher expected returns than less risky assets.
If an asset's return is even higher than the risk adjusted return, that asset is said to have
"positive alpha" or "excess returns". Investors are constantly seeking investments that
have higher alpha.
104
Jensen's measure is one of the ways to help determine if a stock is earning the proper
return for its level of risk. As alpha of DLF is highest it is earning highest return over
and above risk free interest rate and other companies stock.
TREND ANALYSIS
To apply the statistical tool in this project TREND ANALYSIS is the most effective tool
which is applied here.
When estimates of future conditions are made on a systematic basis, the process is
referred as forecasting and the figure or statement obtained is known as forecast. In
this world of uncertainness, economic decision rest upon a forecast of future condition.
Forecasting is concerned with mainly two tasks:- the determination of best basis available
for formation of intelligent managerial expectations, and second handling of uncertainty
about future.
105
31/01/2013 812.55
-6
36
-4875.3
Values
802.14
29/02/2013 780.55
-5
25
-3900
747.32
31/03/2013 646.50
-4
16
-2586
692.5
30/04/2013 705.25
-3
-2115.75
637.68
31/05/2013 587.45
-2
-1174.9
582.86
30/06/2013 396.20
-1
-396.20
528.04
31/07/2013 509.30
473.22
31/08/2014 493.30
493.30
418.4
30/09/2013 352.40
704.8
363.58
31/10/2013 220.25
660.75
308.76
30/11/2013 198.25
14
793
253.94
31/12/2013 281.90
25
1409.5
199.12
31/01/2014 168
36
(X)
1008
144.3
=182
XY=
Y = 6151.9
X = 0
XY
-9978.8
b = -9978.8/182 = -54.82
trend
Stock price
INTERPRETATION:Trend is the direction of movement. The share price can either increase or fall or remain
flat. The direction of the share price movements are called as rising , falling and flat
trends. The direction of the DLFs share price movements is falling but in the dec.2013
107
actual share price is more than the expected share price. DLF share value is according to
bear market which have falling trend line and reverse is true with the bear market.
31/01/2013 272.35
-6
36
-1634.1
Values
271.15
29/02/2013 268.70
-5
25
-1343.5
249.12
31/03/2013 209.75
-4
16
-839
227.09
30/04/2013 232
-3
-696
205.06
31/05/2013 196.75
-2
-393.5
183.03
30/06/2013 121.80
-1
-121.80
143.11
31/07/2013 111.75
138.97
31/08/2014 115.9
115.9
116.94
30/09/2013 90.9
181.8
94.91
31/10/2013 40.55
121.65
72.88
30/11/2013 35.3
14
141.2
50.85
31/12/2013 47.25
25
236.25
28.82
31/01/2014 36.70
36
(X)
220.2
6.79
=182
XY=
Y = 1806.7
X = 0
XY
-4010.9
b = -4010.9/182 = -22.03
300
250
200
150
Trend Valu
Stock pric
100
50
0
INTERPRETATION:-
109
Trend is the direction of movement. The share price can either increase or fall or remain
flat. The direction of the share price movements are called as rising, falling and flat
trends. The direction of the Parsvnaths share price movements is falling but in the
dec.2013 actual share price is more than the expected share price. Now sensex again
crossed 10,000 in mar, 2014 and parsvnathshare value also increased.
Trend
Date
31/01/2013 283.85
-6
36
-1433.1
Values
259.37
29/02/2013 255.10
-5
25
-1275.5
240.25
31/03/2013 207.05
-4
16
-828.2
221.13
30/04/2013 239.45
-3
-718.35
202.01
31/05/2013 203.95
-2
-407.9
182.89
30/06/2013 131.50
-1
-131.50
150.62
31/07/2013 119.05
144.65
31/08/2014 122.15
122.15
125.53
30/09/2013 96.60
193.2
106.41
31/10/2013 57.85
173.55
87.29
30/11/2013 47.70
14
190.8
68.17
31/12/2013 64
25
320
49.05
31/01/2014 52.4
36
(X)
314.4
29.73
=182
XY=
Y = 1880.55
X = 0
XY
-3480.45
b = -3480.45/182 = -19.12
300
250
200
150
Trend Values
Stock price
100
50
0
INTERPRETATION:Trend is the direction of movement. The share price can either increase or fall or remain
flat. The direction of the share price movements are called as rising , falling and flat
trends. The direction of the OMAXEs share price movements is falling but in the
dec.2013 actual share price is more than the expected share price.
111
Date
Observed
Expected
(O-E)
(O-E)
(O-E)/E
value (O)
value (E)
802.14
10.41
108.36
0.13
747.32
692.5
33.23
-46
1104.23
2116
0.001
3.05
637.68
67.57
4565.7
7.15
582.86
4.59
21.06
0.03
528.04
-131.84
17381.78
32.91
473.22
36.08
1301.76
2.75
418.4
74.9
5610.01
13.4
363.58
-11.18
124.99
0.34
308.76
-88.51
7834.02
25.37
253.94
-55.69
3101.3
12.21
199.12
82.78
6852.52
34.41
144.3
23.7
561.69
3.89
31/01/2013
29/02/2013
812.55
780.55
31/03/2013
646.50
30/04/2013
705.25
31/05/2013
587.45
30/06/2013
396.20
31/07/2013
509.30
31/08/2014
493.30
30/09/2013
352.40
31/10/2013
220.25
30/11/2013
198.25
31/12/2013
281.90
31/01/2014
168
(O-E)/E
=135.61
So, = (O-E)/E=135.61
Degree of freedom = = 13-1=12
The tabulated value of, at 5% level of significance for 12 d. f. = 21.02
Result:
112
Since the calculated value of, is greater than the table value, so we reject the null
hypothesis and conclude that there is significant difference between the observed value
and expected value of DLF.
Date
Observed
Expected
(O-E)
(O-E)
(O-E)/E
value (O)
value (E)
259.37
24.48
599.27
2.31
240.25
221.13
14.85
-14.08
220.52
198.24
0.91
0.89
202.01
37.94
1439.44
7.12
182.89
21.06
443.52
2.42
150.62
-19.12
365.57
2.42
144.65
-25.6
655.36
4.53
125.53
-3.38
11.42
0.09
106.41
-9.81
96.23
0.90
87.29
-29.44
866.71
9.93
68.17
-20.47
419.02
6.14
49.05
14.95
223.50
4.55
29.73
22.67
513.92
17.28
31/01/2013
29/02/2013
283.85
255.10
31/03/2013
207.05
30/04/2013
239.45
31/05/2013
203.95
30/06/2013
131.50
31/07/2013
119.05
31/08/2014
122.15
30/09/2013
96.60
31/10/2013
57.85
30/11/2013
47.70
31/12/2013
64
31/01/2014
52.4
(O-E)/E
113
=59.49
So, = (O-E)/E=59.49
Degree of freedom = = 13-1=12
The tabulated value of, at 5% level of significance for 12 d. f. = 21.02
Result:
Since the calculated value of, is greater than the table value, so we reject the null
hypothesis and conclude that there is significant difference between the observed value
and expected value of OMAXE Ltd.
Expected
(O-E)
(O-E)
(O-E)/E
Date
31/01/2013
29/02/2013
value (O)
272.35
268.70
31/03/2013
209.75
value (E)
271.15
249.12
227.09
1.2
19.58
-17.34
1.44
383.37
300.67
0.005
1.5
1.32
30/04/2013
232
205.06
26.4
696.96
3.3
31/05/2013
196.75
183.03
13.72
188.23
1.02
30/06/2013
121.80
143.11
-21.31
454.11
3.1
31/07/2013
111.75
138.97
-27.22
740.9
5.33
31/08/2014
115.9
116.94
-1.04
1.081
0.009
30/09/2013
90.9
94.91
-4.01
16.08
0.16
114
31/10/2013
40.55
30/11/2013
35.3
31/12/2013
47.25
31/01/2014
36.70
72.88
-32.16
1037.79
14.23
50.85
-15.3
235.6
4.63
28.82
18.43
339.66
11.78
6.7
30
900
134.32
(O-E)/E
=180.74
So, = (O-E)/E=180.74
Degree of freedom = = 13-1=12
The tabulated value of, at 5% level of significance for 12 d. f. = 21.02
Result:
Since the calculated value of, is greater than the table value, so we reject the null
hypothesis and conclude that there is significant difference between the observed value
and expected value of Parsvnath Developers Ltd.
115
Correlations
MARKE
ST0CKPRI
T INDEX CE
MARKET
Pearson
INDEX
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson
ST0CKPRICE
.973(**)
.
13
.000
13
.973(**) 1
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
.
N
13
13
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
116
S
T
C
0
I
T
IN
D
00
.M
1A
0R
2
.K
0E
4E
1
0X
.016
0.01
80.0
0..0
2
080.01
0
4
0
6
0
8
0
..0
Pearson
STOCKPRI
T INDEX CE
1
.953(**)
117
INDEX
STOCKPRICE
M
A
R
K
T
E
IN
D
E
X
S
T
O
K
C
P
R
IC
E
0.01
00
.12
0.01
40.016
0.01
80.0
.8
5.0
.0
0
1
0
5
1
.0
0
0
2
5
2
..0
3
0
.0
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson
.
13
.000
13
.953(**) 1
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
.
N
13
13
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
118
MARKE
STOCKPRI
T INDEX CE
MARKET
Pearson
INDEX
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson
STOCKPRICE
S
T
O
K
C
P
R
IC
E
T
IN
D
0.01
00
.M
1A
0R
2
.K
0E
4E
1
0X
.016
0.01
80.0
.8
5
..0
00
1
0
5
1
.0
0
0
2
5
2
..0
3
0
.0
.958(**)
.
13
.000
13
.958(**) 1
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
.
N
13
13
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
119
Variables
l
1
Removed
Method
Stepwise (Criteria: Probability-of-
Entered
MARKE
T INDEX
Adjusted
Error
of
the
l
R
R Square R Square Estimate
1
.973(a)
.947
.942
53.66456
a Predictors: (Constant), MARKET INDEX
ANOVA(b)
Model
Sum
of df
Mean
120
Sig.
Squares
Regressi 566429.6
on
49
Residual 31678.73
Total
9
598108.3
Square
1
566429.649 196.685
11
2879.885
.000(a)
12
88
a Predictors: (Constant), MARKET INDEX
b Dependent Variable: ST0CKPRICE
Coefficients(a)
Model
1
(Constant
)
MARKE
Unstandardized
Standardized
Coefficients
Std.
Coefficients
Beta
Error
-437.053 66.591
.067
.005
T INDEX
a Dependent Variable: ST0CKPRICE
.973
121
Sig.
-6.563
.000
14.024
.000
F
re
q
u
c
n
y
R
e
rs
g
n
t5a
d
e
d
R
s
e
id
a
u
l1.5StM
-1
.5
.i0o
-1
.S
-0
0r
.iz
0
.5
1
.0
N
1e
=
.0
.D
d
v3.=
7
5
e
n
a
-20
49
-1
E
5
.0
1
.5
1
0
2
.5
.0
3
D
e
p
n
d
e
tH
a
V
rtio
lra
b
:m
e
S
T
C
0
K
P
R
IC
E
is
g
122
E
p
x
e
c
td
C
u
m
P
ro
b
s
b
r0v
e
C
u
ro
b
.2O
.4d
0m
.6P
.81.0
0
.0.00
.2
0
.4
0
.6
0
.8
0
1
.0
D
p
e
a
V
rris
lie
b
:o
S
T
C
K
P
IC
E
N
rm
o
a
lP
-e
ln
P
td
o
ftR
e
g
n
S
t0
n
a
d
rR
e
iz
d
R
e
id
s
a
u
l
123
R
e
rs
g
io
n
e
D
ltd
(P
re
s
)R
s
e
id
u
l
a
e
r0s
io
n
t5a
d
ri0.ze
d
re
P
ic
d
tV
l1u
a
e
.5R
-1
.g
-1
.S
-0
0
.5
.01.5
05
--1
0
0
0
5
10
D
e
p
n
d
e
tV
a
rib
le
:S
T
C
0
K
P
R
IC
E
S
c
te
a
rp
lo
t
124
Variables
l
1
Removed
Method
Stepwise (Criteria: Probability-of-F-to-enter
Entered
MARKE
T INDEX
100).
a Dependent Variable: STOCKPRICE
Model Summary
Std.
Mode
Adjusted
Error
of
the
l
R
R Square R Square Estimate
1
.953(a)
.909
.900
26.35930
a Predictors: (Constant), MARKET INDEX
ANOVA(b)
Sum
of
Mean
Model
1
Squares df
Square
Regressi 75921.55
1
75921.552
on
2
Residual 7642.940 11
694.813
Total
83564.49
12
2
a Predictors: (Constant), MARKET INDEX
b Dependent Variable: STOCKPRICE
Coefficients(a)
125
Sig.
109.269
.000(a)
Model
1
(Constant
)
MARKE
Unstandardized
Standardized
Coefficients
Std.
Coefficients
Beta
Error
-188.594 32.709
.024
.002
T INDEX
a Dependent Variable: STOCKPRICE
.953
Frequncy
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Variables Entered/Removed(b)
Mode Variables
Variables
l
1
Removed
Method
Enter
Entered
MARKE
T
INDEX(a
)
a All requested variables entered.
b Dependent Variable: STOCKPRICE
Model Summary(b)
Std.
Mode
Adjusted
Error
of
the
l
R
R Square R Square Estimate
1
.958(a)
.919
.911
26.46389
a Predictors: (Constant), MARKET INDEX
b Dependent Variable: STOCKPRICE
ANOVA(b)
Sum
of
Mean
Model
1
Squares df
Square
Regressi 87047.96
1
87047.961
on
1
Residual 7703.714 11
700.338
Total
94751.67
12
5
a Predictors: (Constant), MARKET INDEX
129
Sig.
124.294
.000(a)
Charts
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Variables Entered/Removed(a)
Mode Variables
Variables
l
1
Removed
Entered
MARKE
Method
Stepwise
(Criteria:
Probability-of-F-to-enter
T INDEX
Probability-of-F-to-remove >= .100).
a Dependent Variable: STOCKPRICE
132
<=
.050,
Model Summary
Std.
Mode
Adjusted
Error
of
the
l
R
R Square R Square Estimate
1
.958(a)
.919
.911
26.46389
a Predictors: (Constant), MARKET INDEX
ANOVA(b)
Sum
of
Mean
Model
1
Squares df
Square
Regressi 87047.96
1
87047.961
on
1
Residual 7703.714 11
700.338
Total
94751.67
12
5
a Predictors: (Constant), MARKET INDEX
Sig.
124.294
.000(a)
Model
1
(Constant
)
MARKE
Unstandardized
Standardized
Coefficients
Std.
Coefficients
Beta
Error
-219.945 32.838
.026
.002
T INDEX
a Dependent Variable: STOCKPRICE
.958
133
Sig.
-6.698
.000
11.149
.000
134