LINEAR ESTIMATES

1. Find an appropriate discrete data to be analyzed. The data should contain more than 10 pairs of
values.
A study was conducted to determine the effects of sleep deprivation on student's ability to solve
problems. The amount of sleep deprivation varied over 8, 12, 16, 20, and 24 hours without sleep. A
total of ten subjects participated in the study, two at each deprivation levels. After a specified sleep
deprivation period, each subject was administered a set of simple addition problems, and the number
of
errors
was
recorded.
The
following
results
were
obtained:
Number of Errors (y) Number of Hours Without Sleep
http://brainmass.com/statistics/all-topics/155087
HOURS WITHOUT SLEEP(H) = X
8
8
12
12
16
16
20
20
24
24

NUMBER OF ERRORS(E) = Y
8
6
6
10
8
14
14
12
16
12

2. Define the independent and dependent variables. Make a scatter plot of the data. Label the graph
appropriately.
i.
Independent variables Hours without sleep
ii.
Dependent variables Number of errors

NUMBER OF ERRORS(E) = Y
18
16
14

NUMBER OF
ERRORS(E) = Y

12
10

Linear (NUMBER OF
ERRORS(E) = Y)

8
6
4
2
0
6

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

MAT530 2012, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adibah Shuib

3. Based on the data and variables defines,

a) Determine the linear estimates:
i)

using a linear equation established using the first two coordinates of the data.
E = F(H) = a + b(H)
8 = a + 8b -------------(1)
6 = a + 8b -------------(2)
a=0,b=0
E = F(H) = 0

ii)

using the least square criterion to determine the line of best fit or regression line.

HOURS WITHOUT SLEEP

(H)
8

NUMBER OF ERRORS
(E)
8

H2

H*E

E2

64

64

64

64

48

36

12

144

72

36

12

10

144

120

100

16

256

128

64

16

14

256

224

196

20

14

400

280

196

20

12

400

240

144

24

16

576

384

256

24

12

576

288

144

160

106

2880

1848

1236

b = [ n H*E - E* H ] / [ n H2 ( H)2 ]
= [10 (1848) 106 (160) ] / [10 (2880) (160) 2 ]
= 1520 / 3200
= 0.475
a = ( E b* H ) / n
= ( 106 0.475 * 160 ) / 10
= 30 / 10
=3
E = F(H) = 3 + 0.475H

MAT530 2012, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adibah Shuib

b) Compare the equations obtained in 3. a) with those found using the LINEST and TRENDLINE
functions of Excel. Explain.

NUMBER OF ERRORS(E) = Y
18
16
14

NUMBER OF
ERRORS(E) = Y

f(x) = 0.48x + 3
R = 0.64

12
10

Linear (NUMBER OF
ERRORS(E) = Y)

8
6
4
2
0
6

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Using TRENDLINE is more accurate rather than using LINEST function .

c) Find the correlation coefficients of all linear equations obtained in a) and b). Are these
coefficients considered significant? Why or why not? Is there a strong positive correlation, weak
negative correlation, strong negative correlation or no correlation between the two variables?
r = [ n ( HE ) ( H )( E )] / [ ( n ( H2 ) ( H )2 ) * ( n ( E2 ) ( E )2 ) ]
= [ 10 (1848) (160 )( 106 ) ] / [ ( 10 ( 2880 ) ( 160 )2 ) * ( 10 ( 1236 ) ( 106 )2) ]
= ( 1520 ) / ( 56.57 * 33.53 )
= 0.801
Yes, these coefficients considered significant because there is no absolute number guide for
correlation coefficient that tell when a two variables have low to high degree of correlation.
However, r closed to -1 or +1 suggest a high degree of correlation, values closed to 0 suggests no
correlation or low correlation and values between 0.7 and 0.8 are moderate.

MAT530 2012, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adibah Shuib

4. Do the predicted (least square line) give an accurate estimate for the data? Explain why or why not?
[Hint: Calculate R2 and verify this value using Regression Analysis of Excel Data Analysis Tool .
Interpret.]
HOURS
NUMBER
WITHOUT
OF
SLEEP(H) ERRORS(E)
8
8
8
6
12
6
12
10
16
8
16
14
20
14
20
12
24
16
24
12
160
106
E = 10.6

PREDICTED
VALUE ( E )
y = 0.475x + 3
6.8
6.8
8.7
8.7
10.6
10.6
12.5
12.5
14.4
14.4
106

RESIDUA
L
( E ) - ( E )
1.2
-0.8
-2.7
1.3
-2.6
3.4
1.5
-0.5
1.6
-2.4
0

DEVIATION
DEVIATION
( E - E )2
6.76
21.16
21.16
0.36
6.76
11.56
11.56
1.96
29.16
1.96
112.4

EXPLAINED
DEVIATION
( E - E )2
14.44
14.44
3.61
3.61
0
0
3.61
3.61
14.44
14.44
72.2

R2 = [ ( E - E )2 ] / [ ( E - E )2 ]
= (112.4) / (72.2)
= 1.556
5.

What is the slope of the least squares (best-fit) line? Interpret the slope.
i)

Slope = 0.475
On average, for any hour increase in sleep deprivation, a students error incerase
by 0.475

ii)

Intercept = 3

6.

On average , a student who just work up from sleep is expected to make 3 errors

Are there any outliers in the above data?

There is no outlier in the above data.

MAT530 2012, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adibah Shuib

NON-LINEAR ESTIMATES
A: NON-AUTONOMOUS DISCRETE MALTHUSIAN GROWTH MODEL
1. Find a 50-year population data of a country (preferably between 1960- 2010).
Population for Malaysia from 1960 2010
Year
Population

1960
8,140,405

1970
10,852,510

1980
13,763,440

1990
17,845,370

2000
22,997,180

2010
27,565,821

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/peo_poppeoplepopulation&date=1960
a) Find the population growth rate for every 10-year period.
Population growth rate = [ ( Population present Population past ) / Population past ] x 100 %
i.

Population growth rate for 1970

ii.

Population growth rate for 1980

100 %

= [ (10,852,510 8,140,405) / 8,140,405] x 100 %

= 33.32 %
= [ (13,763,440 10,852,510) / 10,852,510] x
= 26.82 %

iii.

Population growth rate for 1990

= [ (17,845,370 13,763,440) / 13,763,440] x 100 %

= 29.66 %

iv.

Population growth rate for 2000

= [ (22,997,180 17,845,370) / 17,845,370] x 100 %

= 28.87 %

v.

Population growth rate for 2010

= [ (27,565,821 22,997,180) / 22,997,180] x 100 %

= 19.87%

b) Estimate the population and the percentage of relative error by using

i. The average first four growth rates. Plot the graph and write the equation using best fit
curve.
Average first four growth rates

YEAR
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000

= ( 33.32% + 26.82 % + 29.66 % + 28.87 % ) / 4

= 29.67%
GROWTH RATE
0
0.3332
0.2682
0.2966
0.2887

MAT530 2012, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adibah Shuib

Growth Rate
0.35
0.3

f(x) = 0.01x - 10.47

0.25

Growth Rate

0.2

Linear (Growth Rate)

0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

ii. The average of all growth rates. Plot the graph and write the equation using best fit curve.

YEAR
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010

GROWTH RATE
0
0.3332
0.2682
0.2966
0.2887
0.1987

Growth Rate
0.35
0.3
0.25

f(x) = 0x - 4.81

0.2

Growth Rate
Linear (Growth Rate)

0.15
0.1
0.05
0
19501960197019801990200020102020

MAT530 2012, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adibah Shuib

c) Plot the graph of the growth rates versus year. Estimate the linear model for the growth rate as a
function of time in year. Using the linear model for the growth rate, find the non-autonomous
discrete Malthusian growth model. Estimate the population and the relative error.

Growth Rate
0.35
0.3
f(x) = 0x - 4.81

0.25

Growth Rate

0.2

Linear (Growth Rate)

0.15
0.1
0.05
0
19501960197019801990200020102020

Pn+1 = f ( tn , Pn ) ; P0 = 8,140,405 ; k(t)=0.0025t4.8076

Pn+1 = ( 1 + k ( tn )) Pn
Pn+1 = ( 1 + ( 0.0025t4.8076))Pn
Pn+1 = ( 0.0025t3.8076))Pn

YEAR
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010

GROWTH
RATE (y)
0
0.3332
0.2682
0.2966
0.2887
0.1987
1.3854

ESTIMATED VALUE (y)

y = 0.0025 t - 3.8076
1.0924
1.1174
1.1424
1.1674
1.1924
1.2174
6.9294

ERROR
(y - y)
-1.0924
-0.7842
-0.8742
-0.8708
-0.9037
-1.0187
-5.544

MAT530 2012, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adibah Shuib

d)

Compare graphically the population from the models. Estimate the population of the country in
2050 using estimates found in b) and the Nonautonomous Malthusian Growth model.
1. Pn+1 = ( 1 + r ) Pn ; P0 = 8,140,405 ; r = 0.27708
Pn = ( 1 + r )n P0
P9 = ( 1 + 0.27708 )9 (8,140,405)
= 73,554,448.68 73,554,449

Population
30,000,000
25,000,000

f(x) = 393265.77x - 763771768.62

20,000,000

Population
Linear (Population)

15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
19501960 19701980 19902000 20102020

2.

Pn+1 = ( 1 + k ( t ))Pn
Pn+1 = ( 1 + (393266n800,000,000 ))Pn
Pn+1 = (393266n799,999,999 )Pn

MAT530 2012, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adibah Shuib

B: LOGISTIC GROWTH MODEL

The following data was collected from an experiment measuring the growth of a yeast culture
Time(hour)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Yeast Biomass
10
18
29
47
71
119
175
257
351

Time(hour)
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Yeast Biomass
441
513
560
595
629
641
651
656
660

Let Pn be the yeast biomass at the end of n hours.

a) Plot the graph of Pn+1 versus Pn. Estimate the polynomial of degree 2 to fit the data and use this
polynomial to obtain a logistic growth model.

Yeast Biomass
700

f(x)
f(x)=
=47.86x
- 0.73x^2
- 97.84
+ 61.79x - 144.28

600
500

Yeast Biomass

400

Polynomial (Yeast
Biomass)

300

Linear (Yeast Biomass)

200
100
0
0

8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Logistic growth model is Pn+1=0.7332(Pn)2+61.791Pn144.28

MAT530 2012, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adibah Shuib

b) From the graph of population versus time, the population appears to be approaching a limiting
value or carrying capacity. Guess a suitable value for the carrying capacity M. Using the value M
and the logistic growth model Pn+1=Pn+k(M-Pn)Pn, estimate the value of k.
Pn+1=0.7332(Pn)2+61.791Pn144.28
Pn+1=(1+r)Pn
1+r=61.791;r=60.791
r/M=0.7332;M=60.791/0.7332=82.91(Carryingcapacity)
Pn+1 = Pn + k (82.91-Pn ) Pn
P1 = P0 + k ( 82.91- P0 ) P0
18 = 10 + k ( -82.91 10 ) 10
18 = 10 929.1k
929.1k = -8
k = -8 / 929.1
k = -0.00861

c) Plot the graph of the yeast biomass versus hours for the two models and the observation. Determine
which one is a better model by finding the sum of squares of errors.

Yeast Biomass
700

f(x)
f(x)==47.86x
- 0.73x^2
- 97.84
+ 61.79x - 144.28

600

Yeast Biomass

500
400

Polynomial (Yeast
Biomass)

300

Linear (Yeast
Biomass)

200
100
0
0

8 10 12 14 16 18 20

MAT530 2012, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adibah Shuib

TIME(HOUR
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

YEAST
BIOMASS (y)
10
18
29
47
71
119
175
257
351
441
513
560
595
629
641
651
656
660
6423

PREDICTED VALUES
y = 47.861x - 97.843
-49.982
-2.121
45.74
93.601
141.462
189.323
237.184
285.045
332.906
380.767
428.628
476.489
524.35
572.211
620.072
667.933
715.794
763.655
6423.057

ERROR
( y - y)2
3597.840324
404.854641
280.2276
2171.653201
4964.893444
4945.324329
3866.849856
786.522025
327.392836
3628.014289
7118.634384
6974.087121
4991.4225
3224.990521
437.981184
286.726489
3575.322436
10744.35903
62327.09621

Sum of squares of errors is 62327.09621

MAT530 2012, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adibah Shuib