Global Perspective.

Innovative Research.
Superior Results.
P O L L I N G M E M O R A N D UM

TO:

JEFF ROE, CAMPAIGN MANAGER

FROM:

CHRIS WILSON, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AND ANALYTICS, TED CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT; PARTNER, WPA OPINION
RESEARCH

SUBJECT:

PUBLIC POLLING SINCE ANNOUNCEMENT

DATE:

APRIL 2, 2015

As we expected, Ted Cruz has seen a surge in support since his announcement on March 23rd. Both national
numbers and numbers in key states are up as voters engage and seriously assess a Cruz candidacy.
Recent Public Polling
Recent national polling for GOP primary voters shows a strong surge for Senator Cruz following his
announcement.
o The most recent Washington Post-ABC News National poll shows the strength of the Cruz surge
as Senator Cruz has vaulted into second place with 13% of the vote.
Senator Cruz trails only Bush (20%) and is ahead of Scott Walker (12%) by one point.
o Nationally, Senator Cruz has gained 11 points in support among GOP Primary Voters garnering
16% of the vote according to a poll conducted March 26th-31st by Public Policy Polling.
Senator Cruz has surged into the top tier of candidates and is in a statistical dead-heat
with Jeb Bush (16% Cruz vs. 17% Bush) and is within the margin of Walker (20%).
Senator Cruz is consolidating the conservative vote; his surge in support has come at the
expense of Carson (-8), Walker (-5), and Huckabee (-4).
o Another recent national poll provides more evidence of Cruzs increased strength as a candidate.
A CBS News poll shows that the number of Republicans willing to consider Cruz for
president has surged 14 points since his announcement.
Willingness to consider Walker has increased only five (5) points and willingness to
consider Bush has increased only two (2) points.
Early state GOP primary polls show Cruz moving into a tie for the lead in key states.
o In Nevada, Senator Cruz has gained 12 points in GOP voter support moving into a tie for the
lead, garnering 18% of the vote according to a March 27th Gravis Marketing poll.
Senator Cruz is now tied with Governor Walker for the lead in the Silver State, both with
18% of the vote.
Scott Walker is clearly moving on a different trajectory than Senator Cruz, as the
Wisconsin Governor has lost nine (9) points over the same period.
o In South Carolina, Senator Cruz has gained 11 points in support among GOP Primary Voters and
is in a statistical tie for the lead, garnering 13% of the vote according to a poll conducted March
26th-27th by Gravis Marketing.
Most impressive about this growth is that the Senator has moved into a statistical tie for
the lead in the Palmetto state, as he is within the margin of error of Governors Walker
(17%) and Bush (16%).
Both Bush and Walker have lost three points.
Cruz is the only candidate to experience positive movement over this period.
Conclusion
Senator Ted Cruzs announcement has resulted in very positive movement among Republican primary
voters. These are the only surveys released since Senator Cruz announced and are strong examples of the
overall growth in support.

324 Second Street, SE Washington, DC 20003

1005 Congress, Ste 495 Austin, TX 78701
1319 Classen Drive Oklahoma City, OK 73103
202.470.6300 @wparesearch
www.wparesearch.com

 2015 WPA Opinion Research

Do not copy or distribute without permission

Methodology
Washington Post-ABC News
The Post-ABC poll was conducted March 26th-29th among a random national sample of 444 Republicans and
GOP leaning independent interviewed by telephone. The margin of error is 5.5%.
Public Policy Polling
PPP surveyed 316 Republican primary voters from February 20th-22nd. The margin of error for the survey is
5.5%. PPP also surveyed 443 Republican primary voters from March 26th-31st. The margin of error for the
survey is 4.7%. These surveys were conducted through automated telephone interviews and interviews
over the internet to voters who dont have landline phones.
CBS News
This poll was conducted by telephone March 21st-24th among 240 Republicans nationwide. Data collection
was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of
both standard land-line and cell phones and interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The margin
of error for the survey is 6%.
Gravis Marketing
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random sample telephone survey of 438
Republican Primary voters in Nevada from February 21st-22nd and a random survey of 443 Republican
Primary voters in Nevada on March 27th. These polls have a margin of error of 5%. Gravis Marketing also
conducted a random sample telephone survey of 792 registered Republican voters in South Carolina from
February 24th-25th and a random sample telephone survey of 899 registered Republican voters from March
26th-27th. These polls have a margin of error of 3%. The polls were weighted by anticipated voting
demographics.

Confidential

Page 2 of 2

4/2/2015