The National Transport Model

Predictions on Trends in Road Transport

Philipp Thiessen
ITEA Division, Department for Transport

Structure of presentation
What is the National Transport Model?
How does the National Transport Model work?
NTM uses over time
Traffic and emission forecasts and their key drivers
Sub-national use of NTM forecasts

What is the National Transport

Model for?
Forecasts the main transport indicators of congestion,
pollution and patronage
Supports policy making by providing a multi-modal
framework for understanding the impact of different
scenarios.
Recent use includes the Eddington Study, Road pricing
feasibility study, and recent road traffic forecasts.

What are the capabilities of the

National Transport Model?
A strategic policy and scenario testing tool
Contains all trips and traffic in GB.
Operates using detailed network models
But, not suited to analysis of individual roads/areas.

A multi-modal model
Comprising 6 modes: car driver, car passenger, rail, bus, walk and cycle.

Provides Projections of transport demand and emissions

Produces forecasts of the number of person trips by distance, journey purpose and mode

Forecasts always include an element of uncertainty

But, peer review has shown the NTM is fit for purpose!

How does the National Transport

Model work?
NTM is a 4-stage multi-modal model
It estimates demand through a bottom up model of travel
behaviour
How many trips do people make

Where do people make trips to and from

What mode do they use to make those trips

What route is chosen across the network

Overview of the National Transport

Model
Socio-Demographic Inputs
Land use
Employment
Population
Income
Driving licenses
Car purchase price
Road Traffic Data
Traffic Counts
Fuel Costs
Vehicle Efficiencies
Vehicle Emissions

Freight
Model

Road
Traffic
Model

Car
ownership
model

Walk

Nu
m
a
lo nd ber
c
of atio
tri n
ps

Cycle

Traffic Growth

Congestion

Trip end
model

Multi
Modal
Demand
Model

Rail Data
Ticket Sales
Revenue
Timetable and
rolling stock data

Rail Growth

Rail
Model
Overcrowding

Bus
Freight
Policy

Road
Policy

Local Transport
Policy

Rail
Policy

NTM Use over time

In its first form, the NTM was developed solely for traffic
forecasting.
More recently: focus on congestion and the economic costs
of time lost in traffic (example of road pricing)
With the environment being a key concern, modelling of
transport emissions now a key focus.

Focus on Congestion:
marginal social cost road pricing
Pricing on the roads
offers potential
benefits of up to 28
billion a year in 2025
Compared to 2025
without road pricing
Traffic & CO2 -7%
Congestion

- 50%

Benefits come from

getting relative prices
right not pricing
everyone off the road

2025 No road pricing 2025 With road pricing

Emissions in the NTM

Speed/flow curves determine speeds, link by link
Speed/emission curves for each vehicle/fuel type
Curves move down over time with improved engine technology
At link level and for different time periods speeds and vehicle flows
determine emissions
Total emissions are the aggregation over road & vehicle types and
time periods.

Congestion

Av. Journey
Time

CO2

PM10

NOX

2025 forecasts

Traffic
(Vehicle km)

England,
Forecasted
Changes
2003 to 2025

Scenario

NTM Forecasts

High

39%

48%

7%

-11%

-50%

-58%

Central

31%

28%

4%

-5%

-53%

-60%

Low

20%

19%

3%

1%

-55%

-62%

Road Traffic
Emissions

Traffic and congestion continue growing; CO2 to stabilise

and air pollutants continue falling as engine improvements
filter through to entire fleet.

NTM Emissions Forecast

160
140

CO2

Index (1980=100)

120
100
Historic Data

Forecast

80
NOX
60
PM10
40
20
0
1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Key Drivers of Forecast

Continued traffic growth, but at a slowing rate: Rising income,
rising, but ageing population and falling cost of driving (fuel
economy improvements)
Carbon: Fuel economy improvements, biofuels
Pollutants: Increasingly stringent pollutant standards and old,
dirty cars dropping out of the fleet

Use of NTM at sub-national level

The NTM is essentially a national GB model and peerreviewed as fit for purpose at this level.
All assumptions are set at national average (e.g. vehicle
fleet).
While results can be supplied at broad regional level, they
would not reflect regional variations in assumptions
We are currently evaluating the accuracy of sub-national
results through a comparison to regional models.

Where to Find NTM Outputs

Eddington Study support paper 2006
Transport Demand to 2025 & The Economic Case for Road Pricing and
Investment
http://www.dft.gov.uk/about/strategy/transportstrategy/eddingtonstudy/resear
channexes/researchannexesvolume3/transportdemand

Road Transport Forecasts for England 2007

http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/economics/ntm/071023_AnnualForecast07.pdf
http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/economics/ntm/ for link to regional forecast and
more detail on NTM