Playing the Putin Card

Whats behind the Greek prime ministers dalliance with Moscow?

BY DIMITAR BECHEV-APRIL 8, 2015

Greeks have bequeathed much to the vocabulary of politics, from democracy to
drama to hubris. Also Trojan horse.
The image of the Trojans succumbing to cunning and deceit haunts diplomats and
pundits today as they follow the Greek governments overtures to Russia. Many fear
that the coalition in Athens is edging dangerously close to the Kremlin in pursuit of
narrowly defined self-interest. While Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras argues that
Western sanctions on Russia are a road to nowhere, his flirtation with Moscow raises
the specter of the European Unions common front being sabotaged from within.
First, Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias rushed to dilute the EUs sanctions, shortly after
the January inauguration of a new cabinet dominated by the far-left Syriza. Then, in
March, Economy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, traveling to Moscow to negotiate a
price cut on gas, went on the record lambastingplans for a European Energy Union as

threatening to turn Greece into a dependent pawn of unilateral energy choices or

axes, in the name of the alleged diversity of EUs energy supplies. Now Tsipras,
alongside Panos Kammenos, the leader of junior coalition partner Independent
Greeks, is in Moscow, meeting with President Vladimir Putin.
Tsipras came with his shopping list. Cash-strapped Greece would like Russia to exempt
Greek agricultural produce from sanctions on EU imports. (Forty percent of
strawberries and 25 percent of peaches on the Russian marketcome from Greece, and
the sanctions imposed last August have hit Greek farmers hard.) Athens also wants a
discount on gas deliveries and certainly wouldnt mind a multibillion-euro loan like the
one Cyprus received in December 2011.
Putin, for his part, would like Greece to reconsider Gazproms bid to acquire DEPA,
Greeces principal natural gas supplier. (The deal fell through in June 2013 due to
opposition from the European Commission.) State-owned Russian Railways,
controlled by Putins close associate Vladimir Yakunin, is meanwhile eying the Greek
train operator TrainOSE. Yakunin, who is on the Wests sanctions list, has recently
landed a contract to upgrade Serbias railways, underwritten by an $800 million loan
from the Kremlin. Russian Railways has also been interested in the port of
Thessaloniki, Greeces second city, for some time now.
In the end, the visit seems likely to have left neither party completely satisfied. Both
leaders vowed to deepen economic cooperation, yet Putin made no concessions for
food imports. At a joint press conference on Wednesday after his meeting with the
Greek prime minister, Russias president called on the EU as a whole to lift sanctions
and offered his sympathies to the Greek agriculture sector for falling prey to someone
elses interests. Putin touted the nebulous prospect of Greece becoming an energy
hub and the economic virtues of Turkish Stream, a gas pipeline he unveiled in
December 2014 that will connect Russia to the Black Sea, praising Athens interest in
the project. Yet he made no mention of giving Greece a discount on its gas contract.
Tsipras must have felt frustrated. But even if Putin met Greek expectations, would that
make a huge difference? Probably not. A reduced gas bill would benefit Greece
marginally, as gas accounts for only 12 percent of the countrys total primary energy
supply and roughly one-third already comes from sources other than Russia. A
discount of 10 percent, such as that already won by neighboring Turkey, might help the
countrys trade balance, but Greece would continue paying a premium over large
consumers in Western Europe such as Germany or Italy. And the peaches,
strawberries, and seafood in Moscow or St. Petersburg supermarkets are not going to
offset losses from the lower number of Russian tourists caused by the faltering ruble.
Moreover, Russia, facing an economic crisis of its own, is tight-fisted when it comes to

loans. Even before the sanctions took their toll, in 2013, Cyprus heard Putins nyet
when the island asked for a bailout.
Russia wont get what it wants either. Syriza promised its voters to roll back the
privatization demanded by international creditors, not to sell off new assets to Russian
oligarchs. In March, Athens was forced to reverse the sale of its majority stake in the
port of Piraeus. And Gazprom would run into legal difficulties if it took over DEPA due
to EU competition rules not to mention the political costs. Having already sold a
controlling stake in DESFA (the owner of the Greek gas grid) to an Azerbaijani
company, Greece is far from enthusiastic about parting with more of the family
silverware.
So with little possibility of a real deal with Putin, maybe Tsipras hoped that his visit
would spook Brussels into softening its line on Greece. Not likely. It is far from clear
that Germany and the rest of the eurozone creditor countries would soften out of fear
that the Syriza-led government will embrace the Russian bear even more tightly.
Greece is not in a strong bargaining position: It faces a repayment to the tune of 480
million euros to the International Monetary Fund due this week. The clock is ticking
on the Syriza-led government. It needs to ink a deal on a fresh rescue package in late
June, after nail-biting negotiations over a four-month extension of the current one at
the end of February. Greeces rescue package expires just as the EU has to take a
decision on whether to continue the sanctions against Russia beyond the original July
2015 deadline. It makes little sense for Athens to fight a war on two fronts, both in the
eurozone and with those member states that take a hawkish line on Moscow.
So why play the Russian card? It could be that Tsipras is fully aware that he will incur
no penalty for reaching out to Putin, so he might as well try it and see how it goes. And
there are symbolic points to be scored. At a time when the Greek prime minister needs
to strike a balance between pre-election promises and compromises made thereafter,
Tsipras has a reservoir to tap: Domestic opinion in Greece, from the radical left to the
far right, is largelyfavorable to Russia. According to a 2014 poll, 52 percent of Greeks
view Russian leadership in global affairs as desirable. And 49 percent of Greeks
disapprove of EU aid to Ukraine.
Such attitudes can be explained by looking at the long-standing connections between
Greece and Russia. Greece is one of the four Orthodox-majority members of the EU.
Tsipras, who famously became the first Greek leader to refuse to take his oath before
the archbishop of Athens, nonetheless made time in his Moscow meetings for a visit
with Kirill, Patriarch of All Russia.
History plays a role, too. The former Russian Foreign Minister Ioannis
Kapodistrias became the first head of state of Greece in 1827, and Czar Nicholas I

played a key role in securing the countrys independence in 1830.*The Greek

Revolution against the Ottomans was originally conceived by migrs in the Russian
port city of Odessa. Later on, Russia fought alongside Greece in World War I. And
Greek communists led the resistance against the Nazi occupation; had it not been for
the decisive U.S. intervention in the Greek Civil War (1946 to 1949), the country could
have easily ended up with the Soviets. More recently, populist Prime Minister Andreas
Papandreou vigorously pursued rapprochement with the Warsaw Pact in the 1980s as
a way to put pressure on then-archenemy Turkey, formally a fellow member of NATO.
Tsiprass posing with Putin may also win him points at home with the many Greeks
who oppose the United States. Anti-Americanism is deeply ingrained in Greek political
culture. In the 2014 poll, only 31 percent of Greeks said they want the United States to
lead in world affairs. As elsewhere in the Balkans, the grudge against the West fuels
sympathy for Putins perceived challenge to U.S. hegemony. It is a view shared by antiimperialists on the left and right-wing nationalists alike.
Indeed, the prime ministers trip to Moscow is a fantastic opportunity to posture in the
name of national interests and dignity. Martin Schulz, the speaker of the European
Parliament, warned Athens against diverging from a common stance on Russia.
Tsipras responded with a tweet from Moscow: #Greece is a sovereign state w/right to
pursue nuanced foreign policy in line w/geopolitical role as European Mediterranean
& Balkan country.
In a parallel rhetorical gesture, Athens made headlines last week by demanding 280
billion euros in reparations from Germany for the Nazi occupation that lasted from
1941 to 1944. Unlike other EU leaders, Tsipras will most likely be at Moscows Red
Square on May 9 for the 70th anniversary of the Nazi surrender to the Soviet Union.
He is still doing his best to keep traumatic memories from World War II a time,
notably, when Russia came to Greeces rescue alive in the collective psyche.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin must surely enjoy Tsipras courting his friendship. This
gives the Russian president an opportunity to preach the virtues of sovereign foreign
policy and to show that isolation and sanctions wont make him change his course. The
Greek leader was, no doubt, hoping for more than what he actually got. But at the end
of the day, symbolism matters a lot in politics, to use once more two words of Greek
origin.
*Correction, April 9, 2015: Czar Nicholas I ruled Russia in 1830 and supported Greek
independence. An earlier version of this article said it was Czar
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