CHAPTER 5

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL IN CONTROLLING THE

PROCESS

5.1

Overview

A confidence interval is a range of values, derived from sample statistics,

is likely to contain the value of an unknown population parameter. If
independent samples are taken repeatedly from the same population, and
a confidence interval calculated for each sample, then a certain
percentage (confidence level) of the intervals will include the unknown
population parameter. Confidence intervals are usually calculated so that
this percentage is 95%, but other confidence intervals such as 90%, 99%,
99.9% (or whatever) for the unknown parameter (Institute for Work &
Health, 2007).
There are several factors should be considered before taking
calculation for the confidence interval. First is the confidence limits which
are the lower and upper boundaries or values of a confidence interval,
define the range of a confidence interval (Minitab, 2014). Second is the
variability, also known as measured by the standard deviation (Minitab,
2014). Populations or samples with more variability generate wider
confidence intervals (Minitab, 2014). Other than that, smaller sample sizes
can generate wider intervals (Minitab, 2014). There is an inverse square
root relationship between confidence intervals and sample sizes (Minitab,
2014).
Uncertainties happens during the estimation. Confidence intervals
very important to tell user the most likely range of the unknown
population average or percentage. Besides, confidence intervals provide
both the location and precision of a measure. It is important to remember
that no matter how well the study is designed, the estimate is subject to

random sampling error when statistics is used to estimate a value. The

margin of error quantifies this error and indicates the precision of the
estimate.

5.2

Calculation

or

Estimation

of

MTBF

Confidence

Interval

Factors
First Case: Calculation for pump P804
Assume that pump P804 have the 95% confidence interval,

1=0.95 =0.05
Number of failures = 4
MTBF estimate = 3196.750
From the tables of MTBF Confidence Interval Factors,
MTBF

Lower

= 0.3906 x MTBF estimate = 0.3906 x 3196.750 = 1248.651

MTPF

Upper

= 3.6702 x MTBF estimate = 3.6702 x 3196.750 = 11732.711

True mean value of the population between (1248.651, 11732.711)

Second Case: Assume that pump P804 have the 60% confidence
interval,

1=0. 60 =0.4
Number of failures = 4
MTBF estimate = 3196.750
From the tables of MTBF Confidence Interval Factors,
MTBF

Lower

= 0.5952 x MTBF estimate = 0.5952 x 3196.750 = 1902.71

MTPF

Upper

= 1.7416 x MTBF estimate = 1.7416 x 3196.750 = 5567.4598

True mean value of the population between (1902.71, 5567.4598)

5.2

Interpretation and Analysis of MTBF Calculated

From the calculation, the interval limit for 60% confidence interval for
pump P804 is (1902.71, 5567.4598) whereas the interval limit for 95%
confidence interval is (1248.651, 11732.711).From the data calculation
above, it can be showed that 99% confidence interval is wider than a 60%.
Therefore, it's more likely that it will contain the true value. If confidence
interval narrower with lower variability and higher sample size, it becomes
more precise, the likely values cover a smaller range. However, the
narrower the interval (at a given confidence level), the less uncertainty
there is about the results.

5.3

Recommendations

The margin of error quantifies may be deviate from the actual estimate
There are several strategies are used to reduce the width of a confidence
interval and make the estimate a more precise interval. As mentioned
before, the size of the sample, the variation of the data, the type of
interval, and the confidence level all can affect the width of the confidence
interval.
The most practical way to decrease the margin of error is to
increase the sample size (Minitab, 2014). Usually, the more observations
that have, the narrower the interval around the sample statistic is. Thus,
more data can collected to obtain a more precise estimate of a population
parameter.
The less the data varies, the more precisely the estimate of
population parameter. Reducing the variability of the data decreases the
standard deviation and, thus, the margin of error for the estimate (Minitab,
2014). Two ways to reduce the variability in the data are adjusting the
designed experiment and improve the process that the sample is collected
from or the measurement system so that it measures items more precisely
(Minitab, 2014).
Besides, use a one-sided confidence interval will has a smaller
margin of error than a two-sided confidence interval (Minitab, 2014).
However, a one-sided interval indicates only whether a parameter is either

less than or greater than a cut-off value and does not provide any
information about the parameter in the opposite direction. Thus, use a
one-sided confidence interval to increase the precision of an estimate if
worried about the estimate being either greater or less than a cut-off
value, but not both (Minitab, 2014).