-Misleading volatile prices + one-off factors -Underlying inflation = trimmed means, weighted mean Trends in inflation Avg . 2.7% from 1996 to now, recession in 1990s lowered inflation -Strong inflationary p. in 05-08, due to high global prices + operating at full capacity (u. inflation 5%) -GFC reduced consumer confidence, lowered demand for labour = reduced inflation -Future: in the middle due to slowdown from China but low exchange rate = imported inflation Monetary policy (Increase to 7.25% in March 2008 from 5.5% throughout 2005) with headline inflation at 4.5% in March 2008 reduced to 3.75% by Jan 2009 -Remember pre-emptive use of monetary policy -Decreased from 2.75% to 2.5% in Aug. 2013, inflation increased to 2.7% in Jan 2014 Fiscal Policies Budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP in 2011 decreased inflation from 3.6% in July to 3.4%, September
Current Stats (March): Headline (2.9%), underlying
(2.65%) (weighed = 2.7, trimmed = 2.6) -CPI (Change from DEC to MAR) = 6.7% tobacco, 4.1% automotive fuel, 6% secondary education -Offset by -4.3% furniture, -3.3% international holiday Trends in inequality: -Age: 45-49 earn most (1337), 15-19 lowest (228) -Gender: Women earn 2/3rd of women -Family: Couples earn most, single person and single parent worst off (761), for wealth, same thing except large difference between single parent and single person -Geography: ACT highest (1315) , TAS lowest (944), Wealth: Sydney (419k) higher than regional (342k) -Education, Ethnic, Occupation Social Benefits: People work harder and more social mobility Social Costs: Social class division, poverty Reason for inequality: Perpetuating poverty cycle, difference in attributes, wealth generates income and no everyone has same access to network Causes: General developments in economy + changes in labour market Stats: GINI (0.34, 2011) = increasing (0.306, 2003) For wealth, GINI = 0.61 (2002), from (0.64, 98) -Median income (765), Mean (848) -Median wealth (340k), Mean (563k) -Indigenous Income (398) -Superannuation increases wealth of lowest quintile by 22%
Causes of inflation Demand-pull, cost push,
inflationary pressures, imported inflation, govt policy induced, monetary supply induced Effects of inflation constraint on Economic growth, distorts e. decision, increases wages, increases income and wealth inequality, increases unemployment in longterm, reduces international competitiveness, depreciates exchange rate, reduces interest rates, benefits of inflation
Microeconomic $11.6 billion Infrastructure Growth
Package outlined in 2014-2015 Federal budget to boost infrastructure investment by state govt (i.e. $60 billion committed by NSW govt to ease the burden of congestion and improve productivity Microeconomic - $820 million to expand access to higher education -Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement reduced tariffs on Australian agricultural exports up to 2019% Measuring inequality Lorenz Curve + GINI coefficient (currently 0.37) -GINI = A/A+B Sources of income: Wages, Rent, Earnings from capital, profit and transfer payments -Wealth: Property and superannuation Economic Benefits: increased education, ppl work harder and longer, workforce more mobile, entrepreneurs accept more risk, potential for higher savings Costs: Reduced utility, reduce e. growth, creates conspicuous consumption, created poverty + increased welfare support
Policies: Increase in TFT from 6k to 18.2k, , Increase in
compulsory superannuation, Federal Budget: 10k subsidy to hire matured aged employees, paid parental leave Monetary Policy: Influences cost of borrowing Microeconomic reforms: Privatisation of GBEs Other assistance: National Disability Insurance Scheme + Household assistance package in 2013-2014 budget