Statistics

CO2 emissions in Spain

Electricity and heat production
VS
Residential buildings, commercial and
public services
Team Project
UEM - 2015

Miguel Vaello Martnez

Jorge de Castro Cabello
Ana Isabel Rivera Muoz de la Torre

Statistics
CO2 emissions in Spain

Index
1 Introduction...................................................................................................................................... 2
2 Descriptive analysis....................................................................................................................... 2
3 Analysis through time and demographic..............................................................................8
4 Conclusion........................................................................................................................................11

Statistics
CO2 emissions in Spain

1 Introduction

In this project the following analysis has been made:

Descriptive analysis through time on the variables given by the tables
CO2 emission from electricity and heat production and CO 2 emissions
from residential buildings and commercial and public services (% of total
fuel combustion)
Comparison between both variables through regression and correlation
and reasoned analysis of the results.
Analysis through time and demographic.
Final conclusion about the studied data.

2 Descriptive analysis
The data from the tables covers a period of time from 1960 to 2015.
However, we only have pollution data up to 2011, therefore we have employed
only the period between 1960 and 2011 to perform the analysis.
The main issue of the data is that the CO 2 emission from electricity and
heat production is given in millions of metric tons and CO 2 emissions from residential buildings and commercial and public services (% of total fuel combustion) so we have converted the CO 2 emission from electricity and heat production into proportion to be able to compare both tables and get conclusions.

Statistics
CO2 emissions in Spain

For the CO2 emission from electricity and heat production table:
- Mean: 1.923
- Median: 2.082
- Variance: 1.068
The following graphic describes the CO 2 emission from electricity and
heat production (in millions of metric tons) from 1960 to 2011:

Statistics
CO2 emissions in Spain

The following graphic describes the adjusted version of the table CO 2 emission
from electricity and heat production (in % of total) from 1960 to 2011:

For the CO2 emissions from residential buildings and commercial

and public services table:
- Mean: 8.53
- Median: 2.082
- Variance: 1.897

Statistics
CO2 emissions in Spain

The following graphic describes the adjusted version of the table CO2
emissions from residential buildings and commercial and public services (% of
total fuel combustion) from 1960 to 2011:

Statistics
CO2 emissions in Spain

The following table shows the CO2 emissions of both variables

into one table from 1960 to 2011, included the linear regression:

A = CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production

B = CO2 emissions from residential buildings and commercial and public services

- Covariance: -0.429
- The correlation coefficient (r) for A: 0.316
- The correlation coefficient (r) for B: 0.954

The correlation is low because for the case A is not near to -1 or 1, in this case
is negative so to be good related both variables should be near to -1. However,
the case B is very good related because is close to 1.
The linear regression formulas are in the graphic above.

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CO2 emissions in Spain

Based on the results of the graphics we can say that the proportion of the
CO2 pollution caused by the production of electricity and heat represents less
proportion than the CO2 pollution from consumption of energy from residential
buildings, commercial and public services. As the above graphic shows, if the
electricity and heat production decreases, the level of pollution also decreases,
hence the proportion of pollution caused by the consumption increases.
Is not easy to assume that both variables are related, but seeing the
graphic we can accept that they have a good correlation.

Statistics
CO2 emissions in Spain

3 Analysis through time and demographic

The following analysis was made from an economic point of view. The
impacts of some events that took place along 51 years of history show how the
global pollution has increased or decreased, as reflected by the data.
In the aim of obtaining better predictions, we have compared the previous data with the growth of the population in Spain between 1960 and 2011.
The reason for this is that if a country has more population, the electrical energy
consumption increases and, as a consequence, the electricity and heat production increases too.

If we analyze the "CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production"

variable versus CO2 emissions form, we can observe some relevant historic
moments between 1960 and 2011 that conditioned the pollution growth in
Spain. As already stated, to perform predictions about the pollution data we
have also employed a table which describes the growth of the population in
Spain from 1960 to 2011, the same period as the pollution data given by the
database. The analysis was done in blocks of ten years from 1960:
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Statistics
CO2 emissions in Spain

From 1960 to 1970:

During this period it can be appreciated a slight increase of CO2 emissions. This might be due to an initial industrialization of the country that caused
an increase in the demand of electricity and other energy sources. On the other
hand, the pollution caused by the consumption represents a more and more
small proportion as time passes during this period due to an increase in population by 3.5 million people. Therefore, it seems evident that electricity and heat
production, consumption growth and production are main factors in pollution
growth.
From 1970 to 1980:
In the following decade, probably due to a second growth of population in
the country, there is a rise in the demand of electricity or fossil fuel, hence, a
growth in production. In this case, the consumption represents a smaller proportion in the total pollution, probably due to the growth of the industry.
From 1980 to 1990:
During the period between 1980 and the early 90s, the production increases. This fact may be caused by the growth of the population in Spain and,
therefore, the growth in the demand. On the other hand, the rise of the popula tion generates an increase in the demand of many manufactured products coming from factories which need huge amounts of energy.

Statistics
CO2 emissions in Spain

From 1990 to 2000:

The population has a slow increase, but this decade is important because the application of Kyoto Protocol in Spain, which started in 1990.Thanks
to it, the level of pollution is stabilized during the decade. But at the end of the
decade the population starts to grow quickly due the new urban law (called in
Spanish Ley del Suelo) and a massive incoming of immigrants to the country
too.
These facts imply a more production of electricity and heat because all
the industry around the construction business demands huge amounts of energy for craft materials. Even carrying those products around the country implies a great amount of consumption of fuel that generates important amounts
of emissions.

From 2000 to 2011:

From the beginning of the decade we can see a fast increase in the
emissions of CO2, probably due the energy consumption of the factories and
residential buildings caused by the huge amount of new buildings in the country
and the massive amount of factories around the business.
At the end of 2007, the global economic bubble bursts and causes a
domino effect in many business and factories dependent of the construction
business and many others, which start going bankrupt quickly. As a consequence, the demand of electricity necessary for production begins to decrease
as fast as the production does. The demand does not stop decreasing until the
beginning of 2010, as seen in the graphic of CO 2 emission from production of
electricity and heat.

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Statistics
CO2 emissions in Spain

4 Conclusion
As a conclusion, we believe that pollution caused by the electricity and
heat production could be a good way to analyze the evolution of a country in a
macroeconomic environment as well as the pollution caused by the electricity or
heat consumption or production is a good indicator for understanding the economic context of a country or other events that may affect the pollution. An example of the latter would be regulations or laws, but in this particular case looks
like this does not apply to Spain, as pollution has not stopped growing in
decades despite the protocols to reduce it.
On the other hand, despite all the pollution, it is true that the advances in
more alternative energy resources like solar energy or wind power could make
this indicator obsolete in a near future because of the emissions of CO 2 from
those resources is near to zero.

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