CPN/MAOIST FOR THE FORTHCOMING NEPAL GOVERNMENT:

GLOOMY PAST, GLORIOUS PRESENT AND EXIGENT FUTURE!

A GENERAL POLITICO-SECURITY SITUATION ANALYSIS REPORT

RAJ KUMAR PANDEY, MBS, MA (RURAL DEVELOPMENT)

JAWALAKHEL, LALITPUR
GPO BOX: 19862
KAHTMANDU, NEPAL

rajkpandey2000@yahoo.com, rajkpandey2000@hotmail.com, rajkpandey2000@gmail.com

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General Context

1. The people of Nepal have expressed their deep desires for lasting peace and strong commitments
towards the republican form of government that are manifested in the number of CA berths the
Maoists have secured. It is now worthless to indulge in a debate whether the success of the
Maoists in election is the result of intimidation, black-mailing, booth-capturing or other wrongdoings
of YCL cadres in the rural areas of Nepal where entry of other political party-activists were reported
to be scrutinized. This is the second time that the people have articulated their forgiveness to so
many wrongdoings of the Maoists in the forms of vandalism, intimidation and violence during their
war days. Firstly, the Maoists was given, without any prejudice and detestation, an opportunity of
safe landing in the political arena with the historic Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which paved
way for them to join parliament and eventually the government.

Situation Analysis

1 There were significant numbers of people who considered that the Maoist insurgency in Nepal was
guilty of terrorism. In fact, the Nepalese Maoists specifically had sanctioned the use of terror,
intimidation and vindictiveness in their doings during the peoples’ war. Yet, it is widely known that
in the past, communist practiced some of the bloodiest terrorism on their own citizens. Yet, the bulk
of Nepalese populace has allowed the Maoists to write their destiny as the CA members and has
welcomed them to exercise executive power. In the period, when the reputation of all the major
political parties are diminishing mainly because of their inability to keep pace with the aspirations of
the people; and, the socio-economic as well as political indicators of the country are showing
negative trend, Maoists’ transition to the mainstream politics is perceived by a large section of the
society as the light in the other side of the tunnel.

2. Unquestionably, there are substantial numbers of people in Nepal who consider the Maoists as the
only genuine alternative to the old, repressive social order. Will the Maoists be able to fulfil the
aspirations of the people who voted for them. Though, it is too early to comment, there are visible
obstacles on the way forward which may prove to be stumbling blocks for the forthcoming
government that is likely to be headed by the Maoists.

3. Nepal’s diversity has been one of its distinguishing features: the country has accommodated widely
different cultures, religious and other beliefs, opinions, lifestyles, and values in a synchronised
manner. Different communities, even though living within one territory, have been experiencing
differing social and cultural practices and even different sub-economic systems. It is natural that
the expectations and aspirations of each of these groups would differ somewhat from each other.
Still, there used to be an unseen bond to weld together the separate sets of aspirations into one
collective, national dream, composed of the multi-faceted aspirations of each community, living
freely and proudly with its own separate identity, which could co-exist with the other entities, to
compose a harmonious and united entirety.

4. However, Nepalese society, for some years - with the onset of the Maoists movement, has seen
the continuous rise of visionless movements of various political, ethnic and religious groups within
the country, demanding for so-called expression of their own specific identities, often with the use
of violent means and at times with the demand for territorial autonomy with self-determination
provisions. It has also seen a quasi-total breakdown of accepted traditional, spiritual and moral
value-systems with their connected social and cultural practices.

5. There were significant number of people who considered them to be the conception of the royalists
to destabilise the country and eventually strength the position of the palace. No need to mention,
communists were nurtured by the palace to downsize the influence of democratic forces during the
Panchayat regime. The conflicting statements of Maoist leaders expressed in different forums on
the future of the monarchy has raised many eye-brows and people are waiting to hear whether
their verdicts to vacate the palace as early as possible will be respected.

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6. The Nepalese political arena definitely will also be influenced with the internal power struggle that
may trigger within the Maoist camp between different groups to achieve contradicting objectives by
means of conflicting strategies. There are people who believe that the Maoist party is made up of
people with contradicting characters and individuals’ vested interest who seem suspicious of the
outside world and apprehensive among each other.

7. It is told to be run by a small clique of people – not all of whom necessarily like and trust each
other. The difference of opinions between political and military wings, or so-called ‘pro-palace’ and
‘pro-Indian’ groups, or frontline cadres and the leaders could inflict conflicts. The issue of
assimilation of Maoist militia, who are desperately waiting to come out of the poorly managed
cantonments, with the Nepal Army will surely be a challenge for the leadership. Failure to do so will
certainly spark off skirmish within the party which may be costly for the leadership and therefore,
they should prepare contingency plan well in advance in balancing the internal power equations.

8. The nation is already overwhelmed with rising ethnic tensions, deteriorating communal harmony,
behind-the-curtain game plan of some ‘vested interest persons’ to (mis)utilise the fragile political
situation in their favour, rapidly-escalating lawlessness, marred accountability of public and private
sectors towards the nation, and many others. The so-called movements for autonomy are fuelling
the deteriorating situation to make it worst and irreversible. The Maoists should not be proposing
such alternative course of actions, which could be far more disastrous and repressive than the
government that they had chosen to challenge for the last 15 years.

9. If the Nepalese Maoists have still a hangover of the so called success of the People’s War in the
past, it will be detrimental to them and catastrophic to the whole country. Time has given an
opportunity to the Maoists to prove that the synchronization of communism and democracy is
possible. In the past, communism as a rallying cry, as a banner to unite oppressed people, did
have a certain seductive appeal to catch the people’s sentiments. However, this notion has
progressively been fading out. The Maoists should now comprehend that the destiny of the country
is significantly dependent on what they would contribute for peaceful settlement of the political
crises and how they drive the country forwards where the fundamental rights of the people are not
compromised. Nepal desperately needs peace and prosperity; and the Maoists should prove
themselves for the sustainable peace and prosperity of the country.

10. On the other hand, the upcoming Maoist-led government, which is apparently going to be formed in
the near future, faces enormous challenges ahead. Mainly the institutionalization of republican is
certainly one of the major challenges of the upcoming government. As the first meeting of the CA
will implement the republic, the 240-year old monarchy will cease to exist in any form in the nation.

11. Similarly, restructuring of the nation is going to be the next challenging. As there are numerous
ethnic, linguistic, and cultural groups existing in the countryside, finding an agreeable solution
encompassing the interest of every major group and geographic region is difficult. Conflicts at the
local and the regional levels may arise due to misunderstandings or for other reasons in the
process of restructuring as it is an extremely complex task to be accomplished in the future.

12. Some political parties are advocating a prime-ministerial system, the Maoists and the Madhesi
Janadhikar Forum (MJF) have advocated for the presidential system. The overwhelming support
for the Maoist agenda in the CA elections clearly indicates that the people’s choice is for the
presidential system. The challenge, however, is how to design an efficient presidential system that
will safeguard democracy, people’s rights, and ensure the modernisation of the nation. Many
problems of a nation can be solved by designing an appropriate governmental system.

13. Integration of the PLA and the Nepal Army, on the other hand, may invite some controversies and
unforeseen challenges. Appropriate adjustment of the rank and file of the newly integrated National
Army could be another challenging task for the country.
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14. However, since the CPN/Maoist is going to lead the coalition government and every institution of
the nation, including the NA, has to follow the democratic principles and norms. Consequently, the
PLA integration may not be as tough as many people have envisioned.

15. Maintaining law and order will be another challenge as some armed outfits have boycotted the CA
election and many new outfits may emerge during the processes of political transformation of the
nation, the upcoming government must be firm and clear on its role and obligation. To tackle these
problems, all the political parties must be united, determined and prepared. Whether all the political
parties will be in agreement on how to deal with these outfits is certainly a matter of concern for all.

16. Fulfilling the tall promises on the economic front is another serious challenge that the Maoist-led
government will have to face. The sky-rocketing market prices, the negative balance of payment,
declining export and foreign reserves, rampant poverty, food deficit, massive unemployment,
broken and insufficient critical infrastructure, etc, are some of the major economic problems that
the country is currently facing.

17. However, the institutionalisation of the republic, the restructuring of the nation, and the heading of
the government by a new political party that had fought a decade-long war against the old
establishment, exclusion, corruption, and other social injustices may very well attract funding for
infrastructural development and other economic activities from international aid agencies.

18. Private capital investment on infrastructural and industrial development could be enhanced by
formulating appropriate policies and programs that build confidence on the part of private investors
for their long-term investment.

19. In a country, where over 80% of the population is entirely based on the agricultural production and
where over 40% of its GDP comes from agriculture, no socio-economic development is possible in
a balanced way without developing its agricultural sector. In Nepal, 40% of agricultural lands are
owned by 10% of farmers, and most land holding size is 5-7 ropani in hill and 10 ropani in Terai.

20. These land holdings with a fragmentation of 7-8 parcels of land per household clearly indicates that
the current land ownership situation and farm size is the main bottleneck for any agricultural
development program. These extremely small land holdings and the fragmentation will not be
certainly economically profitable for any producer.

21. As the nation went through a decade-long people’s war and many economic activities were either
discontinued or interrupted during this period, people were displaced, families separated, and
families were economically as well as emotionally devastated. The Maoist-led government has to
come up with a post-war relief package for people who are directly or indirectly suffer in the past.

22. Together with cost of infrastructural repairs and reconstruction, these relief packages will increase
government expenditures. Meeting these expenditures will certainly be a big challenge for the
upcoming government and it is difficult to find out new source of revenue to cope the challenges.

23. Another challenge for the Maoist-led government is the administrative reform. Nepalese people
have suffered from corrupt and inefficient administration for decades. Any administrative reform
that ensures efficient and effective governmental services, corruption control and checks the
nepotisms and favoritism may win the hearts and minds of the general people.

24. Nepal has witnessed a massive out-flow of its youth to foreign jobs, especially to India, the Middle
East, Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia in recent years. The immediate challenge for the Maoist-
led government is to regulate these foreign jobs in such a way that the job-seekers are not
betrayed or cheated by the middlemen or their potential employers. Their basic rights such as job

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 safety, medical facilities, living conditions, minimum wages, and other issues that impact their lives
while at work in foreign countries must be preserved and protected as responsible government.
25. Many foreign job seekers have to borrow money at home with very high interest rates to pay for
their airfares, intermediary fees, visa-processing fees and to meet their expenses while staying in
Kathmandu prior to leaving for the foreign country. The Maoist-led government may also have to
develop some of the major financing mechanisms for the foreign job seekers as an investment.

26. On the international front, the foreign powers will have their microscopic view on the government in
Kathmandu. Conflicting interest of the political parties may translate into misunderstandings among
the foreign powers and donor agencies.

27. People have given their verdict for the radical transformation through the CA election, and have
established the CPN/Maoist as the largest party in the nation with high expectation as usual.

28. They are certainly hopeful that the upcoming government will be efficient, transparent, democratic,
all-inclusive, and successful in bringing drastic changes in the grassroots level society and moving
forward in the making of a better and prosperous Nepal.

Summing up

1. We, therefore, have to wait and see how CPN/Maoist and its coalition govern the country in the
coming days. It is sure, however, they are not going to be able to make any radical changes in the
country and will become almost like existing liberal communist force-UML within two years.

2. At most, they will have good social policies to support the people devastated by the liberalisation
policies haphazardly adopted in the past.

3. Under this scenario, businesses will not have to be worried, but they may have to be more socially
responsible. Indeed, business as a social activity should share its profits with those who can not
make a descent living through redistribution.

4. It is likely that such policies would both increase their popularity and bring poverty and inequality
down. A society with more equitable distribution is argued to reduce the costs of doing business
and enhance social cohesion, instead of unaimed opulence of the few – the most desirables for
rapid socio-economic progress.

5. According to the Maoists’ election manifesto, we are going to earn approximately US$3000 per
annum by 2018 at the current prices and exchange rate. Definitely, we would have a comfortable
life, and many of our children would be enjoying three meals a day, better homes and holidays. In
sum, the quality of life would go up as promised by the Maoist during the CA poll campaigns.

6. Under this scenario, people who are born in poverty will almost certainly not die in poverty and their
children would be undoubtedly wealthy and have better living standards. Beside income poverty,
with the promise to eradicate illiteracy in five years and availability of basic health care is likely to
tackle other forms of human poverty as well.

7. For these high causes, let us unite for the betterment of our country and the common people. For
this to happen, all the political forces need to come up with a lasting power sharing agreement.
Nepal needs solidarity politics at least for the next some years if the country has to make significant
strides in its economic indicators.

8. Let’s put away our narrowly defined vested party interests, past bitterness and rivalries. Instead,
let’s cooperate, collaborate, work hard for the common good of this country and make this nation a
prosperous, peaceful and progressive.

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 9. In fact, this is the verdict of the people, and responsibility of all the political forces who are serious
by heart for the betterments of the common people.

APPENDIX-A: WEEKLY SECURITY SITUATION (4-11 May 2008)

 May 4, Jhapa, Damak, A group of masked men looted 7.5 million from a branch of Laxmi Bank,
which is a major bank heist to have taken place outside of the capital to date.

May 4, Sunsari, Regional Veterinary Office has declared over one and half dozen VDCs and two
municipalities of Morang and Sunsari districts as bird flu prone area.

 May 4, Banke, Cadres of Janatantrik Tari Mukti Morcha (JTMM-J) faction shot dead Maoist cadre
at Naurigaudi of Bethani VDC of Bank district.

 May 5, Mahotari, The abducted VDC Secreatry of Bispitti VDC was found dead inside Indian
territory. Prior to this, an unidentified armed group abducted him from his rented home in January.
Consequently, next day, VDC Secretary Welfare Center shut down VDC offices throughout the
country on Monday to protest against the murder.

 May 5, Palpa, At least 35 persons were killed and hundreds others injured in different 164 road
accidents within past 21 days in Western Development Region along.

 May 5, Siraha, At least severn serious cases of criminal activities were recorded in the district in
the last one week. Two persons including a government employee were abducted; a Maoist cadre
shot at; dacoits looted the villages at three different places, which took place with in seven days.

 May 6, Bara, Kalaiya, An unidentified armed group detonated a bomb at Kaliya-14 targeting a local
doctor’s house which smashed the windows panes.

 May 6, Kathmandu, An unidentified group looted property worth or Rs. 542,000 from the house at
Manamaiju VDC of the capital.

 May 6, Sunsari, One local leader of YCL reportedly threatened to kill a local businessperson of the
Chatara due to a dispute erupted over a monetary transaction.

 May 6, Siraha, YCL cadres forcibly took a person to their office and mercilessly beat him up in
connection with a family feud.

 May 6, Rautahat, Chandranigahapur, Locals of Paurai VDC locked East-West highway demanding
compensation of the family of the victims in a road mishap.

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 May 6, Bara, An gang of three armed persons robbed an office of Manharwa based Mamkaur
Sugar and Chemicals of Rs. 600,000.

 May 7, Baglung, Nepal Students’ Union and ANNISU-Revolutionary padlocked a local school
indefinitely alleging that the school charged students excessively.
 May 7, Kathmandu, The country is likely to witness a severe crisis of petroleum products again
after the cash-strapped NOC slashed distribution of petroleum products by 50% in capital.

 May 7, Nawalparashi, Nepal Teachers’ Association shut schools in the district as some teachers
got hurt in a brawl with district education officers over the distribution of teachers relief quota.

 May 7, Kathmandu, The Young Communist League (YCL) announced its plans that to massively
mobiles its cadres in economic revolution programs so solve the unemployment an backwardness
programs in the country. They will also be used for development works at grassroots, urban traffic
management, infrastructure construction activities based on people’s participation. They had also
stresses for setting up separate youth ministry to solve the problems of the youngsters.

 May 7, Rautahat, Locals handed over JTMM-J district Secretary to the police when he tried to
intervene while they were loading timber in a tractor in Dumariya VDC.

 May 7, Kathmandu, UML Central Leaders have called for a nationwide anti-Maoist protest. The
UML also demanded to dissolve the YCL, return all confiscated property and completely end
Maoist/YCL political terrorism to receive support form the UML. On the other hand, MPRF and
Sadabhabana have stated that they may join the new government on condition of the Madheshi
agenda being addressed.

 May 7, Kavrepalanchwok, Banepa, All Nepal Women Association padlocked the CPN UML’s
district office after a nominee under the PR system to the CA was dropped by the party.

 May 7, Nine masked men attacked a bus with 15 Bhutanese refugee on it way to the Khudunabari
camp to drop off the refugee who had been to the International Office for Migration (IOM) office in
Damak for third country resettlement processing. The IOM and UNHCR condemned the attacked.

 May 7, Bara, An unidentified gang detonated a socket bomb on the premises of Bara District
Development Committee (DDC) Office, where the Boarder Security Office of Armed Police Force is
situated. JTMM-G has owned up the explosion over the phone to the media.

 May 7, Morang, Hotel workers of Biratnagar launched an agitation stating that their 20 point
demands were not implemented even after two years of agreement with the hoteliers.

 May 7, Kathmandu, Senior Maoist Leader informed that the integration of the Nepal Army and the
Maoist Combatant - - PLA, can be carried out without the UNMIN in Nepal.

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 May 7, Kathmandu, Police detained at least 56 protesting Tibetans in front of Chinese Embassy.

 May 7, Kaski, Pokhara, blaming the government for not supplying school textbooks even after a
month of the new academic session, stationers padlocked Janak Education Material Center.

 May 8, Sarlahi, A disgruntled group took out furniture items and other goods from CPN/Maoist
party office located at district headquarters and set them on fire.

 May 8, Kavrepalanchowk, Maoist/YCL have threatened to kill a Nepali Congress activist at Thokse
VDC-1 for daring to vote for NC and working as a polling agent of his party.

 May 8, Rupendehi, Bhairahawa, a gang of three assailants gunned down contractor at Bishanpur
of Bodhbar VDC. He had come to inspect a bridge under construction and the gang also touched a
truck parked at site.

 May 8, Dhanusa, Janakpur, JTMM-Rajan Mukti gunned down a hilly staffer in the accounts
department of Jankapur Cigarette Factory who was abducted earlier. The JTMM-RD district
coordinator said that it was a warming to the factory management to fire all hill origin workers.

 May 8, Rautahat, Villagers vandalized the house of Maoist lawmaker at Chandranigahapur-8

following the beating of an eight year old child by his nephew earlier. His 18 member family is
taking refuge in different locality.

 May 8, Siraha, An unknown armed group of robbers robbed property worth rupees 8 million from
the house of a local in Britauna VDC of the district.

 May 9, Sunsari, Rajbiraj, A group of armed outfit calling themselves Madhesi Virus Killers (MVK)
has allegedly killed JTMM-G District Coordinator who was earlier abducted.

 May 9, Bajhang, Maoist attacked a local school principal and Nepali Congress cadre under political
prejudice and has broken his arm. Nepali Congress condemned the continuing Maoist attacks on
its cadre and supporters ever after the CA polls were over.

 May 9, Kathmandu, Police detained nearly 95 disabled protestors as they staged a sit-in protest
outside the Prime Minister’s official residence at Baluwatar.

 May 9, Kathmandu, Petroleum dealers have threatened to launch agitation and stop distribution
petroleum products if the government does not come up with concrete programmes to ensure a
smooth supply of fuel by May 28, 2008.

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 May 9, Kathmandu, Police detained more than 200 Tibetan exiles who were trying to protest and
storm a Chinese embassy building in Hatisar. However, they are released by evening daily.

 May 9, Dhanusha, Janakpurdham, Two factions of the JTMM led by Jwala Singh and Rajn Mukti
announced unification but they had split four months ago and both confirmed their merger.

 May 9, Bhojpur, Police freed a CPN/UML cadre from Bhulung VDC-5 from the captivity of the
Maoist. He was abducted ten days ago after he failed to donate NRs. 100,000 to Maoist.

 May 9, Sunsari, Itahari, An armed group of three masked men robbed NRs. 25,000 from a local
businessman at Jalpapur while he was on his way.

 May 9, Dhanusha, Janakpurdham, Disgruntled cadres of the CPN/Maoist vandalized the party’s
district office accusing the leadership of changing the name of previously proposed PR candidate.

 May 9, Rautahat, A policeman was critically injured when an unidentified gang shot at him in
Madanpur VDC. The gang of four fired at cop who was posted at Samanpur Area Police Office.

 10 May, Siraha, An unidentified armed group abducted a bank employee from Kasaha Chowk. He
was working with the Agriculture Development Bank in the capacity of an Assistant.

 11 May, Kathmandu, Am unidentified armed group killed two foreign job aspirants inside a guest
house. They were staying in capital to go for abroad job.

 11 May, Sankhuwasabha, CPN/Maosit cadre allegedly beat up CPN/UMN activists accusing due of
not casting their vote for Maoist in the last CA poll.

 11 May, Saralahi, Bharatawa, Two Nepali Army soldiers sustained bullet injuries after a rifle of an
Nepali soldier on sentry duty accidentally exploded.

 11 May, Kathmandu, Police arrested nine persons with fire arms and sharp weapons from a guest
house at Gangabu in capital. They were arrested with three small bombs and there SLR bullets.

 11 May, Kathmandu, Bara, a bomb planted by an unidentified gang at Madhyamanchal Cold Store
in Parsuani-9 blasted.

 11 May, Jhapa, Damak, Property worth NRs. 1 milliion was gutted in a grocery store due to a fire
that broke out in the shop.

 11 May, Sunsari, Itahari, Business entreprenures announced fresh protest from Monday against
the delay in the probe into the murder of a couple on 18 March 2008.

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 11 May, Saptari, Rajbiraj, An unidentified gang killed an elderly man, four days after the killing of
his son, at Kodarkatti.

 11 May, Bara, An unidentified gang of three detonated a socket bomb in a house belonging to the
CPN/UML’s former Vice Chairman of Manharwa VDC at Manarwa-3.

 11 May, Jhapa, Damak, Public transport stayed off the roads in Mechi zone as well as the call of
Mechi Bus Entrepreneurs’ Association. To protest the demand of excessive compensation from the
relatives of a man, who was killed in an accident.

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