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- Introduction Ts

You are on page 1of 23

Pertemuan ke-6

Introduction

Least Square Regression

Linear

Non-Linear

Introduction

Data is often given for discrete values along a continuum. However,

you may require estimates at points between the discrete values

Describes techniques to fit curves to such data to obtain intermediate

estimates

General

eneral approaches for curve fitting :

where the data exhibits a significant degree of error or noise, the strategy is to

derive a single curve that represents the general trend of the data.

data One approach of

this nature is called least-squares

squares regression

where the data is known to be very precise, the basic approach is to fit a curve or a

series of curves that pass directly through each of the points.

points The estimation of

values between well-known discrete points is called interpolation

points.

(b)

b) linear interpolation,

experimental data: trend analysis and hypothesis testing.

Trend Analysis :

represents the process of using the pattern of the data to make predictions.

Used to predict or forecast values of the dependent variable

Hypothesis Testing :

an existing mathematical model is compared with measured data.

data If the

model coefficients are unknown, it may be necessary to determine values that

best fit the observed data. On the other hand, if estimates of the model

coefficients are already available, it may be appropriate to compare predicted

values of the model with observed values to test the adequacy of the model.

Often, alternative models are compared and the best one is selected on the

basis of empirical observations.

error,

oscillating beyond the range of

the data

result using the least-squares fit.

Linear Regression

square approximation is fitting a straight line p

observation : (x1, y1), (x2, y2), . . . , (x

( n, yn).

y = a0 + a1x + e

a1

e = y - a0 - a1x

The

he error, or residual, is the discrepancy between the true value of y and the

approximate value, a0 + a1x , predicted by the linear equation

Linear Regression

Criteria for a "Best" Fit

minimize the sum of the residual errors for all the available data

Linear Regression

Criteria for a "Best" Fit

(b)

b) minimizes the sum of the absolute

values of the residuals,

Linear Regression

Criteria for a "Best" Fit

A third strategy for fitting a best line is the minimax criterion. In this

technique, the line is chosen that minimizes the maximum distance that an

individual point falls from the line

well

for

fitting a simple function to a complicated function (Carnahan, Luther, and

Wilkes, 1969).

Linear Regression

Minimize the sum of the squares of the residuals between the

measured y and the y calculated with the linear model

Linear Regression

Least-Squares

Squares Fit of a Straight Line

To determine values for a0 + a1

in a minimum Sr

Example

Fit a straight line to the x and y

values in the first two columns

SOLUTION

Xi

Yi

1

0.5

2

2.5

3

2

4

4

5

3.5

6

6

7

5.5

ml X 28 jml Y 24

jml Xi^2

ata X 4

rata Y 3.428571

Xi^2

1

4

9

16

25

36

49

140

between the data and a single estimate of the measure of central

tendencythe mean

the square of the residual represents the square of the vertical distance

between the data and another measure of central tendencythe

straight line

a) the spread of the data around the mean of the dependent variable and (b) the spread of

data around the best-fit

fit line. The reduction in the spread in going from (a) to (b), as indicated by the bell-shaped curves

the right, represents the improvement due to linear regression

Polynomial Regression

For example, suppose that we fit a second-order

second

polynomial or

quadratic

where all summations are from i = 1 through n. Note that the above

three equations are linear and have three unknowns: a0, a1, and a2.

The coefficients of the unknowns can be calculated directly from the

observed data.

The two-dimensional

dimensional case can be easily extended to an mth-order

polynomial as

mth

mth-order

polynomial

EXAMPLE

Fit a second-order

order polynomial to the data in the first

two columns

SOLUTION

elimination gives a0 = 2.47857,

a1 = 2.35929, and a2 = 1.86071. Therefore, the least-squares

least

quadratic equation for this

case is y = 2.47857 + 2.35929x + 1.86071x2

The standard error of the estimate based on the regression

polynomial is

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