Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 5
During the past few weeks I have been asked one question
more frequently than any other: what could derail the stock
market run? It is a difficult question to answer, as market
derailments are usually caused by problems investors are not
yet aware of. However, I can think of plenty of issues likely to
cause meaningful market volatility.
1. Predicting the timing of the Feds next rate increase
is currently markets primary preoccupation. If I were
forced to make a prediction, I would have to pick
September 2015 (just so we are clear). Chair Yellen
has been deliberate in her efforts to prepare markets
for the eventual rate rise. I think she would only make
THE DECISION to increase rates if she felt markets were
ready to accept the tightening. June might be too early,
judging by the current excessive market tantrum caused
by strong US employment data.
2. GREXIT - current bailout negotiations are difficult and
there is a distinct possibility they might fail. If the Greek
government resorted to a referendum, there is a good
chance Greek citizens would choose exit from the euro
region. I give this outcome a very low probability, but it
would cause plenty of uncertainty as investors deal with
the ramifications.
3. Lack of oil price recovery, or worse, another meaningful
decline in oil price would prolong economic hardship in
Russia. The appalling murder of Boris Nemtsov right near
Kremlin might act as a catalyst for the dissident movement
to gain traction. I am not sure what combination of
circumstances could destabilize Putins government, but
the fact that no one believes it to be possible is a risk in
itself.
Veronika Hirsch
Portfolio Manager
Arrow Capital Management Inc.
MCEC