Binomial

& Poisson

Distribution

Q1. Suppose 48% of individuals 5 years or older have Alzheimers .You go to a nursing
home that has been feeding the residents a diet of natural organic and healthy foods
including free ranging chickens, omega 3 eggs , flax seeds etc. You find that only 29
of the 100 residents who are above 85 years old have Alzheimers. What is the
likelihood of this outcome?
Solution
Total number of Trials: 100
No of Successful trials: 29
Probability of success in each trial: 0.48 (48%)
Cumulative is a logical value and you indicate TRUE if you want a cumulative value
else
Indicate FALSE for the exact probability. In this problem we want exact
probabilty of 29 Successes out of 100 Trials. So, indicate FALSE , ie. 0
Using BINOMDIST in Excel,
Answers : = Binomdist( 29,100,0.48,0)

= 0.0000485

Q2. Mr. Paulo, CEO of Aztec Laboratories, a leading pharmaceutical company in US,
announced a miracle drug to cure cancer that his company has developed after years
of R&D and test trials. If what MR. Paulo claims is true, this drug can revolutionize
the medical world. Zenith Laboratories, a stiff competitor of Aztec, however claimed
that the drug is nothing but a farce because of the negative side effects it causes.
FDA conducted trials on the drugs and came out with the findings that the drug
causes negative side effects in 3 of every 100 patients. To confirm this
affirmation, another laboratory chooses 5 people at random who have
consumed the drug. What is the probability of the following events?
1.
2.
3.

None of the five patients experience side effects.

At least two experience side effects.
What is the average number of patients that the laboratory
should expect to experience side effects if they choose 100
patients at random?

SOLUTION :
1. Probability of people having side effects : .03
Probability of people not having side effects: 1-0.03 = .97
None of the people out of the sample of 5, having side effects:
=Binomdist(5,5,.97,0)
=0.8587
2. At least two experience side effects.
=1-Binomdist(0,5,.03,1)- Binomdist(,5,.03,1)
= 0.0084

Q3. There is a probability of 0.12 that any randomly selected person from the population
at large is an alien abduction victim. A sample of 26 people is interviewed.

a) Find the probability that in the group of 26, exactly 3 are victims
b) Determine the probability that the number of victims (successes) is at most 14
(anywhere from 0 to 14).
c) Determine the probability that the number of victims is between 6 and 10,inclusive.
d) Determine the probability that the number of successes is at least two.
Solution
a. =binomdist (3, 26, .12,0) = 0.2374
b. =binomdist (14, 26,.12,1) = 0.99
c.=Binomdist(10,26,.12,1)- Binomdist(5,26,.12,1) = 0.08308
d. 1-binomdist(1,26,.12,1) = 0.8362

Q 4. An ER at a Chicago hospital sees an average of 4.2 critical cases per 6-hour shift.
Determine the following probabilities:
a) The probability that the number of critical cases on a 6-hour shift is 4
b) Find the probability that the number of critical cases is between three and
eight, inclusive: Find the cumulative prob from up to and including eight.
c) Find the probability that at least 10 critical cases will be seen during a 6-hour
shift
Solutions
a. =poisson(4,4.2,False) = 0.1944
b. =poisson(8,4.2,True) - poisson(2,4.2,True) = 0.3795
c. =poisson(6,4.2,True) = 0.8674