7.

A bag contains 6 red and 3 black counters. I take a counter, note its colour and return
it, and
repeat this until I have selected 5 counters.
a) Find the probability that I have selected
i) One red counter

[2]

ii) Two or more red counters

[3]

b) Given that I obtained at least one red counters, find the probability that I obtained two
or more.
[4]
c) Without carrying out any further calculations, comment on how the probabilities in part
a) would
change if I did not return the counter after each selection.
[2]
2

7.

a) B(5,

)
2

i) P(X = 1)

= 5C1( )1(
= 0.0412

)4
[2]

ii) P(X 2) = 1 P(X=0) P(X = 1)

1

P(X = 0) = ( )5 = 0.0041
P(X 2) = 1 0.0412 0.0041
= 0.9547

[3]

P ( X 2 andX 1)
P ( X 1)

b) P(X 2 | X 1) =
P( X 1 ) = 1 P(X = 0) = 0.9959
0.9547
0.9959

P(X 2 | X 1)=
= 0.9586
c) i) p would be zero
ii) p would be 1

[4]

[2]

14.A student doing a statistics project decides to stand outside a shop at various times and
note down the
sexes of the first ten people to enter it.

He decides to model the number of men per 10 people entering the shop using a binomial
distribution, B(10, 0.5).
a) Comment on his choice of parameters for the binomial distribution
[2]
b) Comment on his use of the binomial distribution
[1]
The student finds that out of 200 people entering the shop, 60 were men. He decides to use
this data to
refine his model.
c) Write down a suitable binomial model for the number of men per 10 people
entering the shop.
[1]
Using your model,
d) find the probability that exactly 3 out of the next 10 people entering the shop are
men.
[2]
e) find the probability that out of the next 20 samples of 10 people recorded by the
student,
half contain exactly 3 men.

[4]

14. a) Shop may appeal to one sex more than the other. (eg clothes shop)
So p = 0.5 may not be suitable
[2]
b) Assumes sexes of people coming into shop are independent, however
people
may come in groups, which maybe of mainly one sex.
[1]
60
200

c) P=

= 0.3 B(10, 0.3)

d) P(X=3) =

C3 (0.3)3 (0.7)7
= 0. 2668

[1]

10

e) B(20, 0. 2668)
P(X = 10 ) = 20C10 (0.2668)10 (1 0.2668)10
= 0. 0152
[4]

4.
Electric wire is produced in lengths of 300 metres. On average there is 1
defect in every 3000 metres
of wire produced.

[2]

a) Explain why a Poisson distribution may be a suitable model for the number of
defects per 300 metre length.
[1]
b) Find the probability that in a 300 metre length there will be at least one defect.
[3]
c) Find the probability that out of ten 300 metre lengths, more than one contains
one or more defects.
[5]
A wire of length N metres is produced. The probability of at least one defect in this
length of wire is 0.95.
d) Find the value of N, giving your answer to the nearest metre.

[3]

Solution 4.
a) Its reasonable to assume defects occur independently, at a uniform
rate and singly.
[1]
b) Po(0.1)

e 0.1

P(X 1) = 1 P(X = 0) = 1 -

= 0.0952
[3]

c) P(X>1) = 1 P(X=0) P(X=1)

10

P(X = 0) = (1 0.0952)
9

P(X = 1) = 10(0.0952)(1 0.0952)

So P(X > 1) = 1 0.3677 0.3869 = 0.2454
[5]
d) # defects ~ Po()

P(X 1) = 1 P(X = 0)
e

So 0.95 = 1 e

= 0.05
= -ln0.05 = 2.9957

So length is 2.9957
[3]

3000 = 8987m

10. The number of telephone calls received at a switchboard averages 2 every 5

minutes.

a) Comment on the applicability of a Poisson model to this situation

[2]

b) Calculate the probability of there being

i) 4 calls in the next 5 minutes

[2]

ii) at least 6 calls in the next 10 minutes

[3]

The switchboard operator takes a break lasting T minutes. The probability of him
missing a call in this time is 50%.
c) Find the value of T, giving your answer in minutes to two decimal places.

[4]

Solution:
10.a) Assumes calls arrive at constant rate
May not be true; some times of day will be busier.
[2]

b) i) P(X = 4) =
[2]
ii) Po(4)

e2 24
4!

= 0.0902

P(X 6) = 1 P(X 5)
= 1 0.7851 = 0.2149
[3]
c)

P(at least 1 call) = 0.5

So 1 P(no calls) = 0.5
P(no calls) = 0.5
Po
# calls in T minutes ~
So e^( )= 0.5
= -ln0.5 = 0.6931
1 call every 2.5 minutes, so T = 0.6931
[4]

2.5 = 1.73 minutes

7.Amanufacturerfillsjarswithcoffee.Theweightofcoffee,Wgrams,inajarcanbemodelledbya
normaldistributionwithmean232gramsandstandarddeviation5grams.
(a)FindP(W<224).

(3)

(b)FindthevalueofwsuchthatP(232<W<w)=0.20

(4)

Twojarsofcoffeeareselectedatrandom.
(c)Findtheprobabilitythatonlyoneofthejarscontainsbetween232gramsandwgramsofcoffee.(3)

Solution:
7(a)P(W<224)=P(z<(224232)/5)
=P(z<1.6)=10.9452
=0.0548
(b)0.50.2=0.3

(3)
0.3or0.7seen

(w232)/5=0.05244
w=234.622

(4)

(c)2(10.2)
20.8(10.8)=0.32

(3)

Question:7.Apackingplantfillsbagswithcement.TheweightXkgofabagofcementcanbe
modelledbyanormaldistributionwithmean50kgandstandarddeviation2kg.
(a)FindP(X>53).

(3)

(b)Findtheweightthatisexceededby99%ofthebags.

(5)

Threebagsareselectedatrandom.
(c)Findtheprobabilitythattwoweighmorethan53kgandoneweighslessthan53kg. (4)
Solution:
(a) z=(5350)/2
P(X>53)=1P(Z<1.5)

=10.9332
=0.0668

[3]

(b) P(X<=x_{0})=0.01
(x_{0}50)/2=2.3263
x_{0}=45.3472

[5]

(c) P(2erighmorethan53kgand1less)=3x(0.0668)^(2)x(10.0668)
=0.012492487

[4]