The research question is How will climate change and climate variability affect the rice SC

through SC uncertainties?. Additional questions will be investigated are 1) What are the key SCUs
associated with a changing climate ? and 2) What are possible alternatives to reduce impacts of climate
change on the rice supply chain ?.
Naylor et al. (2007) claim that Indonesia is vulnerable to climate change as the country is
projected to experience a lower precipitation. To anticipate impacts of climate change, as Naylor et al.
(2007) suggest, Indonesia should prepare some adaptations to climate change such as better irrigation,
drought tolerant rice varieties and alternative staple foods.
Another literature explains negative impacts of climate variability. For example, higher
precipitation can cause high paddy moisture, leading to a longer paddy drying time (Daulay, 2005; Suheiti,
2007; Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian, 2011) and increase paddy drying time from 2-3
days to 4 days (Listyawati, 2007; Jamal et al., 2007). In addition, there are several studies explain impacts
of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation, it is an important climate variability) on Indonesian rice
production. For example, using a statistical method that involves some variables such as a time trend and
sea surface temperature anomalies, some studies conclude that Indonesian rice is vulnerable to ENSO (ElNino Southern Oscillation) as ENSO could significantly reduce rainfall and delay rice planting seasons
(Naylor, Falcon, Wada, & Rochberg, 2001, 2002; Roberts, Dawe, Falcon, Naylor, Smith, & Burke, 2004;
Naylor & Mastrandrea, 2009).
In case to understand impacts of climate on the rice supply chain, Hasan (2010) separates the
rice supply chain into three phases. The first phase includes distribution production input such as fertilizer,
seed and pesticide. The second phase consists rice growth in farming areas that includes interaction among
climate, technology and labor. The last one is delivering the milled rice to customers. As climate cannot be
controlled, the second phase is difficult to manage so that climate change and climate variability could be
inherent sources of the rice supply chain uncertainties (Hasan, 2010; Vorst and Beulens, 2002). Hence, as
supply chain uncertainties can threaten the supply chain performance, climate change and climate
variability can reduce the rice supply chain performance. For instance, Hasan (2010) claims that due to
droughts and floods, the rice supply chain cannot provide appropriate rice supply, leading to rice shortage
in Bangladesh.

In application of system dynamics approach, some studies explore some impacts of climate
change using system dynamics approach. For instance Fiddaman (1997) successfully constructs a climateeconomy model to find an appropriate tax policy in order to reduce economics impacts of climate change.
Furthermore, varied climate change impacts attract other scientists to explore its impacts on several
aspects. For instance, Koca and Sverdrup (2012) conclude that climate change can affect quality and
availability of water in Turkey (Koca & Sverdrup, 2012). Again, an SD approach is applied to estimate
climate change impacts in Burkina Faso (Kopainsky, Zllich, & Blanco, 2013). Kopainsky et al. (2013),
by using climate projections from IPCC AR3, claim that climate change could negatively affect some
sectors such as GDP, agriculture yields and livestock production in the country.
In addition, system dynamics approach also has been applied in the supply chain uncertainty
arena. For example, climate uncertainty such as droughts could negatively affect the meat (sheep) supply
chain (Parvizian, 2009). Parvizian (2009) explains that due to droughts, the sheep slaughter rate tends to
increase, providing more meat supply and a lower meat price. However, a higher meat price would occur
in next seasons as a lower stock of sheep, owing to a higher slaughter rate, can reduce the production
capacity.
This study is similar to Hasans study (2010). That is, exploring impacts of climate change on
the supply chain, particularly impacts on the rice supply chain. This study has two contributions. The first
contribution is using system dynamics approach to explore impacts of climate change and climate
variability (inherent sources of the rice supply chain uncertainties) on the rice supply chain. As previously
mentioned, climate change and climate variability can negatively affect rice supply chain performance in
some aspects such as a lower paddy yield, a longer paddy drying time, a lower ready-milled paddy and a
lower rice supply.
Furthermore, while other SD studies (Parvizian, 2009; Hasan, 2010) explore impacts of rainfall
change on the supply chain, this study will provide the second contribution. That is, investigating climate
change impacts on the supply chain through rainfall and temperature variations. Because higher
temperatures (due to climate change) can influence rice yields (Wassmann et al.,2009; Jagadish et al.,2010
; Welch et al., 2010), impacts of high temperature (together with impacts of rainfall change) on the rice
supply chain should be sought.

INTRO
Tunjukkan bagaimana climate change impacts berevolusi dari a smaller scale research to a larger
scale research (memberikan manfaat yang lebih besar).
Tunjukkan bagaimana climate change mempengaruhi rice yields. Studi lanjut menemukan
bahwa cc juga mempengaruhi factor-faktor yang terkait dengan supply, flexibility, lead time dan quality.
Flexibility, efficiency, quality and lead time.
Disisi lain climate change studies involve some uncertainties such as effect of climate on rice
(crop) yields and uncertainties on climate projections.
This study similar to Hasans research (2010). However, this study will investigates some issues
that Hasan (2010) did not explore. These issues are lead time ( a longer paddy drying time), quality and
efficiency (costs). Another issue will be investigated in this study will explore effects of temperature on
rice yields. Another important study on understanding the agrifood supply chain is from Van der Vorst
(2002). Van der Vorst (2002) explains that climate can be inherent sources of supply chain uncertainties,
but this writer did not explain how climate may affect the agrifood supply chain performance.
Apa perlu tunjukkan bahwa performance supply chain diukur dari efficiency (cost, price),
flexibility (volume or delivery flexibility), quality and responsiveness (lead time).
Efficiency measures how well the resources are utilized (Lai et al., 2002). It includes several measures
such as production costs, profit, return on investment and inventory. Flexibility indicates the degree to
which the supply chain can respond to a changing environment and extraordinary customer service
requests (Bowersox and Closs, 1996; Beamon, 1998). It may include customer satisfaction, volume
flexibility, delivery flexibility, reduction in the number of backorders and lost sales. Responsiveness aims
at providing the requested products with a short lead-time (Persson and Olhager, 2002). It may include fill
rate, product lateness customer response time, lead-time, shipping errors, and customer complaints. The
specific characteristics of agri-food supply chains are captured in the measurement framework in the
category food quality. The latter is based on the framework of food quality developed by Luning et al.
(2002). Food quality is divided into product and process quality.
Quality = paddy moisture
Responsiveness = a longer drying time leads to a longer lead time
Flexibility= rice supply (ratio rice supply and rice demand)
Efficiency = ratio actual paddy price and standard paddy price