The global market for RFID

2010-2020
Dr Peter Harrop

p.harrop@IDTechEx.com
www.IDTechEx.com

Consulting Publications Conferences

IDTechEx Ltd

RFID is a fast growing business

$bn

2005

2010

2020

Tags

1.0

2.1

9.9

Other

0.9

3.5

12

Total

1.9

5.6

21.9

Consulting Publications Conferences

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It is not all about paybacks

GOVERNMENT LAWS fit it to your cattle in Australia,
Canada, Uruguay, Botswana, dogs in New Zealand,
sheep and goats in Europe or go to jail
GOVERNMENT MONEY largest orders are military
and local government for non stop road tolling and air
baggage in USA/Korea and city cards and national ID
card in China. E-Passports in 70 countries
CRIME PREVENTION hospitals, postal service
ERROR PREVENTION healthcare
LIFE SAVING AND HEALTH - healthcare
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Largest orders are placed by Government

China National ID Card $6 billion HF passive
ACS for New York/ New Jersey EZ Pass $500 million UHF Active (In 2006,
New Jersey Turnpike Authority spent $28 million to replace 1.1 million old E-Z
pass toll tags before their batteries ran out)
Savi Technology for US Army $500 million 433 MHz active
Unisys consortium for US Army $500 million 433MHz active/UHF passive
E-Passports UK De La Rue $600 million
E-passport infrastructure UK and USA $30-$65 million HF passive
E-passport RFID inserts for USA $50 million HF passive
Applied Digital river readers US Army/ Bonneyville Hydro $45 m LF passive
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RFID is $5.6 billion in 2010 but fragmented

Over 1000 suppliers: top ten have half the business
Largest include these (double counting in the sales)
Gemplus RFID cards & passports $500 million+
NXP chips
$500 million
ACS Non stop road tolling and transport card
system integrators
$500 million
Assa Abloy secure access, livestock$400 million
Savi military & heavy logistics systems integration
$200 million
Smartrac - Passport inlays
$150 million
Allflex livestock tags
$110 million
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Passive and active RFID

Passive has no power supply in the tag - low cost, longest life tags

BIGGEST MARKET
Active has a power supply in the tag, usually a battery
First generation active is a tag that is read when near an interrogator longer
range, can initiate a signal. BIG

MARKET eg car keys, military, road toll

Second generation active is Real Time Locating Systems RTLS - many

interrogators locating a tag from a distance eg 150 US hospitals
Third Generation Active is Wireless Sensor Networks WSN - every tag
node can be a reader in a mesh network like the internet ie self organising,
self healing and it can sense something.
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HF RFID is over 50% of market value

National ID
card
Passport
label/ page

Security
and/or
Memory
size

Aircraft
part tag

Secure
access or credit
card
Transit card
Transit ticket
Library
book label
Item
drug label
Retail
pallet/case
label

7 cents
Consulting Publications Conferences

e
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Chip cost

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IDTechEx Ltd

Dropping price to 2 cents by getting rid of the chip

Kovio ink jet printed, nanosilicon RFID in the lead
Samples are now available

ISO14443
1000
transistors
*

RFID markets tout a change

The worlds most popular annual analysis of RFID markets
IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2010-2020
finds

Largest expenditure by sector

2010
1. Financial, Security, Safety
2. Passenger Transport, Automotive
3. Animals and Farming
2020
1. Retail, Consumer Goods
2. Financial, Security, Safety
3. Land & Sea Logistics, Postal
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Worlds largest reality check on RFID

The IDTechEx Knowledgebase of over 4100 projects in
112 countries (4150 organisations, 770 slide
shows/audio) shows:
Largest number of projects is
1. Financial, Security, Safety, nearly all HF
2. Retail and Consumer Goods, mainly UHF
However, Retail/CPG is under 5% of the money
spent on RFID so there is a long way to go
Consulting Publications Conferences

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Number of case studies by project status is a glimpse

of the future from the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase
1800

Number of case studies

1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200

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Consulting Publications Conferences

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IDTechEx Ltd

Here comes China

From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase
Number of case studies

1,500

1375

1,000

500

397
303

224

190

170

118

101

93

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Consulting Publications Conferences

IDTechEx Ltd

ag
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Number of case studies

Case studies by tag location

From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase
1200

1000

800

600

400

200

Consulting Publications Conferences

IDTechEx Ltd

HF is always the most popular frequency

1400
(but UHF people shout loudest)
HF is over 50% of the value
of the RFID market - cards,
tickets, passports, logistics
etc

Number of case studies

1200
1000

Worlds
favourite RFID
standard is HF=
ISO14443
(+15693)

800
600
400
200

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Consulting Publications Conferences

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Source: IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2009-2019

www.IDTechEx.com/forecasts
IDTechEx Ltd

Case studies by active/passive

From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase
2500

Number of case studies

2000

1500

1000

500

0
Active
Consulting Publications Conferences

Passive
IDTechEx Ltd

Case studies by read/write

From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase
2000

Number of case studies

1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Read Only
Consulting Publications Conferences

Read/Write
IDTechEx Ltd

Consulting Publications Conferences

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Number of case studies

Case studies by application

From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase
700

600

500

400

300

200

100

IDTechEx Ltd

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Consulting Publications Conferences

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Number of case studies

Case studies by tag shape

From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

IDTechEx Ltd

Tag numbers will rocket if printed RFID

with no chip is available and adopted but
unnecessarily complicated standards
must be abandoned
Number
billion
Tags

Consulting Publications Conferences

2005

2010

2020

0.7

2.4

125 mainly 2
cent chipless
tags

IDTechEx Ltd

Passive tags remain dominant in numbers

Number
billion

2005

2010

2020

Active

0.05

0.06

0.8

Passive

0.66

2.3

124

Total

0.71

2.4

125

Passive tag systems migrate to HF and UHF

Active tag systems migrate to 2.45GHz and UWB and
are more profitable
Consulting Publications Conferences

IDTechEx Ltd

For more read:

RFID Forecasts, Players and
Opportunities 2010-2020

"We found the report to be extremely helpful and well

done"
Daniel Luch, CEO, Ertek

www.idtechex.com

Cambridge UK 28-29 September

SPEAKERS INCLUDE
BMW
Goodyear
Gerry Weber
Copenhagen Airports
Conference
Sony
Exhibition
NP Collection
Masterclasses Centre Pompidou
Visits
NYK Logistics
Cubic
NXP
Guide Dogs for the Blind

www.idtechex.com/rfidEurope

For reports and events see

www.idtechex.com

For custom consulting contact :

Americas - Raghu Das at r.das@IDTechEx.com

Europe and Rest of World - Dr Peter Harrop
p.harrop@idtechex.com
or call + 44 1223 813703

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Global Research & Analysis on Printed Electronics, Photovoltaics, Energy Harvesting and RFID