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SIR Models
Assume viruses spread through contact or close
proximity between infected and healthy individuals.
Omit a crucial point:
How disease is spread through a population.
I
N
S NI
dS
SI
=
dt
N
dI
SI
=
I
dt
N
dR
= I
dt
Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 7/16
dR
= I
dt
I = 0
S+R = N
dI
dt
> 0:
dI
dt
> 0
S0 I
I > 0
N
S0
I > 0
N
( )I > 0
R0 =
where
represents the rate an infected individual gives
rise to new infections
1
R0 =
R0=4
100
100
S
I
R
90
80
80
70
Number Infected
Number Infected
70
60
50
40
60
50
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
S
I
R
90
10
15
20
Time (in Days)
25
30
10
15
20
Time (in Days)
25
30
R =4
100
100
S
I
R
90
80
80
70
70
Number Infected
Number Infected
90
60
50
40
60
50
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
10
15
20
Time (in Days)
25
S
I
R
30
10
15
Time (in Days)
20
25
30
R0=1
100
80
80
80
60
40
40
20
10
15
20
Time (in Days)
25
30
Number Infected
80
60
40
20
10
15
20
Time (in Days)
25
10
15
20
Time (in Days)
30
25
30
25
30
25
30
100
100
80
80
60
40
10
15
20
Time (in Days)
R =20
20
20
40
100
60
R =10
R0=3
60
Number Infected
Number Infected
100
20
Number Infected
R0=1.5
100
Number Infected
Number Infected
R0=0.5
60
40
20
10
15
20
Time (in Days)
25
30
10
15
20
Time (in Days)
References
Mathematical Models in Biology by Leah Edelstein-Keshet, SIAM,
2005.