Corrected Baseline Programme For Delay Analysis

5/7/2015
Correctedbaselineprogrammefordelayanalysis|ProjectControlsplanning,scheduling,costmanagementandforensicanalysis(PlanningPlanet)
Corrected baseline programme for delay analysis

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22replies[Lastpost]
Tue,2005050323:36
NeilTait
Ivescannedpreviousstringsbutfoundnothingrelevant.Heresthescenario,commentsand
referencewelcomebasedonexperience/acceptedprinciples:
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Onourprojectwearequitesimplyutilisingthebaselineprogramme(ContractProgramme)
fordelayanalysis/assessment.Despitethebaselineprogrammehavingbeenapprovedit
wassubsequentlycleartoallpartiesasworkprogressedthattherewerevarioussequencing
errorssomofwhichwereontheasbuiltcriticalpath(tobeexpectedinany2000+activity
programme)
Opportunityexistedunderthecontractfortheerrorstobecorrectedinarevisedprogramme.
Despiterequestforsuch,thisapproachwasnottakenupduringthecourseoftheworksfor
variousreasons(note,arevisedprogrammethatcontainsanelementofprogressisdifferent
fromacorrectedbaselineprogramme).
Unfortunatelyitisonlynow,atthetailendoftheproject(beyondsubstantialcompletion),
thattheclaimresolutionhasreceivedtheappropriatecommitmentfromthevariousparties.
Withhindsight(asbuiltknowledge)thevarioussequencingerrorscontainedinthebaseline
programmehavebecomeevidentandthecontractorhasputforwardanapproachwherebya
correctedversionofthebaselineprogrammeisutilisedfordemonstration/assessmentof
delay/EOTentitlement.
BygoingdowntheroadofacceptingpostworkcorrectionstothebaselineprogrammeIm
fundamentallyconcernedthatsuchaprogrammeisnotdefinedunderthecontractandthat
suchaprogrammecouldproveunfairtothepartiesinvolvedi.e.intheprocessofcorrecting
theprogramme,concurrentactivitieswillberesequencedinseries,whichiforiginal
completionobjectivesaretobeachievedwillrequiresqueezingthecriticalpaththiswill
potentiallyyielddatesthatareearlierthanthosepresented/anticipatedduringthecourseof
theworkandwillalsopresentasbuiltprogressdelaysassociatedwithactivitydurationsthat
arenowreduced.
Beyondmyfundamentalconcerns,thereareofcoursedoubtsoverwhatwouldbedeemed
acceptablecorrections.Impossiblewouldwarrantacorrection,butImpracticalmaywellbe
somethingdiscoveredonhindsightthatneedstobelivedwithonthebasisthatitisnot
impossibleandhasintheorybeensequencedandpricedakathebaselineprogramme.
Doesanyoneouttherehavedirectexperienceorpointsofreferencewithregardspreparing/
acceptingacorrectedbaselineprogramme(postwork)fordelayanalysis?Isitanaccepted
industrystandard?
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#1
Sat,2009101718:53
RolandTannous
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HeyMike
welldidntmeananyharm.Ididntevenpayattentiontothedate.
:)
Regards
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#2
Sat,2009101714:06
MikeTestro
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HiRoland
AlittlewordofadvicetoanewPPmember.
Toresurrecta4yearoldthreadmaybeconsideredbadmannersbytheoriginatorand
contributors.
PleaserespondwherealivedebateisinprogressgoandhavealookatLetsChallenge
Spiderandseeifyoucanaddanythingtothatforumandretainyoursanity.
Bestregards
MikeTestro
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#3
Sat,2009101700:03
RolandTannous
Ifindthe"ButFor"principletobehighlysubjective,andamethodthatshouldbeapproached
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withcaution.
Ithasbeenusedalotoftimesfrombothpartiestoaclaimtostatethat"butfor"mydelayon
Xactivitytheotherpartywouldhavedelayedtheprojectanywaybecausehedidntmobilize
hissubcontractorforactivityYontime.Bystatingthatthefirstpartyisreallyviolatingthe
conceptsofCPMbyforgettingthatinalotofcasesitcouldbethatthedelayonactivityX
gaveactivityYmorefloatandthereforethelatemobilizationofthesubcontractoronthat
activitydidntcauseanycriticaldelaystotheprojectandcouldamounttothecontractorjust
pacingthedelayonactivityX.
Ofcourseeverythingsaidabovewouldntbeaproblemifbothexpertsreallyknowwhat
theyredoingandifyouendupincourt,forthejudgetoreallybeintunewiththesubject
becauseinthispartoftheworldmostjudgesdont.
Regards
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#4
Wed,2005051110:13
DavidBordoli
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Adrian
Yourgraciousnessisnowmakingmefeelguiltyforbringingyoursliptoyourattention.
IthinkHisHonourJudgeHumphreyLLoydQCmadeasimilarslipinBalfourBeatty
ConstructionLtdvLondonBoroughofLambeth[2002]soweareingoodcompanybut
againthatalldependsonthedefinition,JudgeLLoydsdefinitionsmayhavebeendifferentto
ours!
WecangetverypedanticifwearenotcarefulandtalkaboutatimeimpactanalysisorTime
ImpactAnalysisforinstance.Literally,Ithinklowercasesignifiesanymethodthatanalyses
timeandimpactwhereasuppercaseisaspecificmethod.Similarly,atimeslice/windows
analysisandTimeslice/WindowsAnalysis.
Again,theseareonlymyinterpretationsofthemethodsbutIthinkyourdescriptionisofa
windows/timesliceanalysis.MyviewisthatthetechniquesarebroadlysimilarbutTIAleads
toamorerefinedanalysisasitdealswithindividualeventswhereasTimesliceAnalysis
potentiallydealswithwhatevernumberofeventshappenwithintheselectedtimeperiod.I
tendtothinkthereisaspecificwayofanalysingthedelaysusingTimesliceAnalysisbutuntil
wegetarevisionoftheProtocolmaybeweareallstillalittleinthedark.
Regards
David
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#5
Wed,2005051109:37
AdrianArcher
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DearDavid,
Faircall,yourequiteright.Toomanycommentatorsuse"TimeSlice"and"TimeImpact"
interchangeablyandIfellvictimtoittooIwasreviewingajudgementthatdidexactlythat
whenIdraftedmysuggestionsforNeil.
Agreedthat"TimeSlice"isanothertermfor"Windows."Iknowitasmarkingtwodatesona
programmethatboundaneventandanysuitablemethodofanalysismaybeappliedwithin
thattheatre.Sameforyou?
Muchobligedandmanythanks,
AdrianArcher.
PickavanceConsultingLimited
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#6
Wed,2005051107:41
DavidBordoli
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Dearall
ApologiesforthisnonconstructivepostingbutIdliketogetbackonmyhobbyhorseof
nomenclatureanddefinitionsofmethods.
Withrespect,IamsurprisedatAdriansmisappropriationinanotherwiseexcellentresponse.
Inmyextremelyhumbleopinion(!)whatAdrianreferstoasTimeSliceisinfactTime
ImpactanalysisandisthatmethodwhichisrecommendedbytheSCLandtosomeextent
byhisorganisationschairman,KeithPickavance,inhisbookDelayandDisruptionin
ConstructionContracts.
TimeSliceanalysis(orWindowsanalysis)issomethingdifferentandisnotmentionedinthe
SCLProtocol.Anunexpectedomissionconsidering,inmyexperience,itisafrequentlyused
methodofanalysis,atleastintheUK.
Regards
David
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#7
Sun,2005050819:04
UriShachar
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Guys,
InmostcasesIwouldhaveastrongpreferencetoleavethebaselineprogramme(Contract
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programme)unaltered,especiallyifitwasagreedorapprovedoracceptedor
acknowledegedbythePrincipal.Thereshouldbeaverystrongcasefortemperingwithsuch
programme.
Extendingthedurationoftheprojectdueto,say,omissionintheProgrammeisparticularly
problematic,asthePrincipal,hadtheproblembeingknownatthetimepriortosigningthe
Contract,couldhavesignedwithadifferentContractor.
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#8
Sun,2005050814:24
PhilipJonker
Iamacuallvplayingagameclledcossacks2whichisbmindbloring
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#9
Sun,2005050814:20
PhilipJonker
IcouldevenquoteKhalilgibran
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#10
Sun,2005050814:18
PhilipJonker
TherbidsomespaceforNapoleonhere,aswellasEinsteinqndrsuntsu
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#11
Sun,2005050814:13
PhilipJonker
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hi
Andrew,thefunhasbegunmletthemprovethereisnoroomforpragmatibmonthesite
regards
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#12
Sun,2005050808:30
Andrew
Flowerdew
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Smallclarificationonlastpost
Iftheassumptionswerereasonableandapparentlypossible,givenwhatwasknownatthe
time........
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#13
Sun,2005050808:25
Andrew
Flowerdew
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Hiall,
Withoutknowingthedetailitishardtojudgeoradvisebutiftheoriginallogicassuptions
madewerereasonableandpossibleATTHETIMETHEYWEREMADEthenthecontractor
probablyhasastrongcase.Ifso,followPhilipsadvice,siteveryoneroundatableanddoa
deal.
Itsoftendifficultwithhindsight,nowknowingallthefacts,totakeyourselfbackintimeto
whenthecontractbeganandthinkofwhatwasorwhatwasnotknownatthetime,butthat
isyourstartingpoint.
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#14
Sun,2005050804:07
JohnHerbert
hi,
7/14
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FromtheOPandclarificationitseemsthatthecriticalissueistheunforeseen
delay/sequencingerrorandhowdoesoneassessthatwiththebenefitofhindsight?
Allpartiesviewedtheprogrammeanddidntspottheproblem,thereforeitisreasonableto
believethatthecontractualviewmentionedbelowiswellsupported.
Assumimgtheworst,i.e.goingtocourt,onecouldbegintheassessmentfromthe"oversight
point",howeverasyoupointedoutitwouldmostlikelybenefitthecontractor,andinmyview
rightlyso.
Assumingabaselinebeforetheoversightwouldnotbeadvisedinmyview,fromthe
contractorsviewonecouldeasilyrestatethatthesequenceproblem(includingCPactivities)
wereonlyuncoveredatalatestage,andunforeseenbyallparties.Iguessthatnobody
stoodupatthatpointanddiscussedwiththecontractorforthecostimplicationtoaccelerate
theworkstomeetthedeadline.
.......justmy2cents
cheers,
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#15
Fri,2005050612:33
PhilipJonker
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HiAndrew,goodtoseeyouarestillaround.
HiNeil,
SomethingImissed,inyourfitstpostthefirstsentence,therewasathread,"Asbuiltcritical
path",Ithoughtyouwereawareof.Obviouslynot,asypuhavenotreferredtoit.Thereis
someinterestingreading,probablythelongestthreadtohaverunonthePPsite,maybe
somebodycancomment?
Thepointisletsbepractical/pragmatic,andgoadifferentroute,whichthe"legaleagle
planners"seemtoavoid,astheirincomederivesfromthere,andtalktoeachotherie
client/contractor/middleiman,andresolvetheissuesinacivilisedmanner.Admitour
shortcomingwhicheversideofthefencewesit.Ifyoumakeamistakeadmittoit,andfixit.
Ihaveoverthirtyyearsexperience,andIstillhavenotlearnteverything.Youprobablyneed
thirtypeoplewiththirtyyears,andyoumightgettohaveabasicunderstandingof
everything.Foreveryactivitywedotheremightbe10+methods,sowhoarewetocriticise
somebodyelseslogic,unlesswehavetwentyexperiencedpeople,andthenthejokeis
somebodycanthinkupabettermethod.
Regards
8/14
5/7/2015
Philip
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#16
Fri,2005050608:27
Andrew
Flowerdew
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Niel,
BothPhilipandAdrianssuggestionshavemanyvalidpoints.Althoughyouobviouslywishto
minimiseyourworkcontentbutwedonotknowthevalueoftheclaimandhencehowmuch
effortthecontractormaythinkitsworthspendingontheclaiminordertopersueit.Itmay
besubstantialandhencehemaywishtospendconsiderabletime(andmoney)onitifhe
believesitwillhelphiscase.
Oneofthequestionsthatneedstobeaskediswhythecontractor(andpossiblyothers)
thoughttheoriginallogicwascorrectandwhysubsequentlyitwasfoundtobewrong.The
legalphrase"whatwasoroughttohavebeeninthecontemplationofbothpartiesatthetime
ofmakingthecontract"isfundamentaltocontractlawandprobablyhasadirectbearingtoall
orpartofwhatyouareconsidering.
Iknowthisdoesnthelpyoupickananalysismethodbutdontshootyourselfinthefootby
choosingamethodbasedonwhatwillsaveyourselfwork.Itmightcostyou(ormorelikely
yourclient)alotinthelongrun.
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#17
Fri,2005050608:05
JoshiNiraj
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Jonker
IfthesaidchangescorporateinthebaselineschedulewithmutualunderstandingasTait
explainedthenwherejeopardisego?
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#18
Fri,2005050604:37
PhilipJonker
HiNeil,
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Ihavebeenonbothsidesofthefenceinclaims,andevenasacontractor,Iwouldsaythat
makingchangestoanapprovedprogrammewouldjeopardiseyourowncase.
Regards
Philip
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#19
Fri,2005050604:16
NeilTait
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Philip&Adrian,
Thanksforthetimeyouhavetakeninreplying.
Philip,contrarytoyourstatementtheprogrammewasntsuspecttobeginIdidsaythat"...it
wassubsequentlycleartoallpartiesasworkprogressedthattherewerevarioussequencing
errors...".Otherwise,yoursteadfastpositiongetsthethumbsupfromcertainquartersofthe
office.
InthisinstanceIrecognisetheneedforanassessmentthatneitherpenalisesnorbenefitsthe
contractorinanunfairmanner.Myconcernwasthatbyadoptingacorrectedbaselinethis
wouldbenefitthemunfairly.Howeverlikewise,itisevidentthatbystickingwithabaseline
thatcontainserrorstheymaywell(will)beunfairlypenalisedasitwouldyieldcertainevents,
thatdidhaveanevident(asbuilt)criticalimpact,asbeingnoncritical.
ThealternativeanalysistechniquessuggestedbyAdrianarewelcomeandIsuspectofferthe
solution.Mypreferencefortheasplannedimpactedtechniquestemsfromitssimplicityand
theavoidanceofhavingtobuildanasbuiltprogrammecompletewithasbuiltlogic,as
opposedtojustasbuiltdates.
Onceagain,thanksforyourfeedbackandsuggestions.
Regards
Top
Fri,2005050602:34
#20
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AdrianArcher
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DearNeil,
Fromwhatyoudescribe,Iseeanumberofpossiblewaysforyoutoproceed.Forgivemeif
ImtoolongwindedindescribingthedifferenttechniquesbutIdontknowatexactlywhat
leveltopitchmysuggestions.
Itisntuncommonforeitherpartytoadisputetointroducea"corrected"baselinebyone
partytoadispute.Theoutcomesyoudescribesoundterriblyfamiliarthe"corrected"
baselineneverexistedduringthecurrencyoftheworksandwashenceneverfollowedthe
"corrected"criticalpathscouldbeprejudicialtoonesideortheotherargumentsover
reprogrammingtoovercometheimpracticalaswellastheimpossible.
YoullnotethatIkeepputting"corrected"ininvertedcommas.Thatsbecauseonemustbe
mindfulthatnoprogrammecaneverforecasttheworkswithcompleteaccuracyand,assuch,
itcanneverbe"correct."Besttreatanyclaimofpossessinga"correct"or"corrected
baseline"withoutrightcynicism.
Iwouldntworryabouttheprogrammebeing"approved."Fromwhatyouvedescribed,the
contractencouragesupdatesandrevisionsandevennowyourContractorwantsto"correct"
it.Therearealmostnocontractformsthattreattheprogrammeasanimmutable,contract
document.Ifbothpartiesnowagreetochangetheprogramme,sobeit.
Iunderstandyoureadoptingthe"asplannedimpacted"technique.Thistechniquehowever
assumesthatthatoriginalbaselineisrelevantandafairrepresentationoftheworksfortheir
entireduration.Thisisfineforsimpleprogrammesofadozenactivitiesorsobutyour2,000
activityprogrammehasgrownwellbeyondthelimitsofthistechnique.
Youfeartheriskthatconcurrentactivitieswillberesequencedundera"corrected"baseline.
Thisisinevitableonalargeprogrammeanycorrectionswillshiftwholetrainsofactivities
pasteachother.Imremindedofamediationinwhichtheothersidesexpert,insistingonthe
"asplannedimpacted"model,hadtotrytoexplaintothemediatorwhyasingleadverse
weathereventwasimpactedonadozendifferentactivitypathsandonadozendifferent
days,notoneofwhichmatchedtheactualdateoftheevent!
Itispossibletostudytheworkswithan"asplannedimpacted"modelbutyouwouldneedto
treateverysingledeviationfromtheoriginalbaselineasaneventforimpacting.Thatisthe
onlywaytoensurethatasinglebaselineprogrammecanrepresenttheworksfortheentire
durationoftheworksbutIwouldntwishthatonanyone.Imthinkingyourprogramme
simplysoundstoobigtohandlean"asplannedimpacted"analysis.
Youcanhoweveravoidtheproblemsofforcingonebaselineprogramme,originalor
"corrected,"torepresenttheworksforalloftheworksandthatstotryadifferent
technique.
Themostinterestingandfrustratingthingaboutretrospectivedelayanalysisisthe
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explosioninthenumberoftechniquesthatbecomeavailableuponcompletionoftheworks.
Nowthatyourprojectisnearcompletion,youhavetheoriginalbaselineprogrammeandthe
asbuiltprogramme,whichIthinkgivesyouallthereasonsyouneedwhytheoriginal
baselinecantbemadetoapplytoalltheworksforalltheirduration,"corrected"or
otherwise.
Therearetwotechniquesthatcanhelpavoidargumentsoverthebaseline"asbuiltbutfor"
and"timeslice."Bothhoweveropenupdifferentgroundsfordisagreementbetweenthe
partiesindisputeitseemsitsuptoyoutodecidewhichargumentsareworthhaving!
"Asbuiltbutfor"
Thistechniquehassolidsupportfromthecourts.A"live"asbuiltprogrammeisconstructed
that,withverifiablelogic,holdsalltheactivitiesonthedatesthattheyoccurred.Activitiesthat
representtheeventsareexcisedfromtheprogrammetoseewherethecompletiondates
wouldfallwereitnotfortheeventinquestioni.e.,theworkswouldhavefinishedxdays
earlierbutforsuchandsuchevent.
Yourasbuiltrecordsneedtobemorethantheactivitiesasbuiltstartandfinishdates.Youll
alsoneedrecordsthatcanconveyhowtheactivitieswerelinked.Forexample,did"FRP
Mezzanine"drive"FRP1/F"withastarttostartlinkplusalagorafinishtofinishlinkplusa
lag?Ifthereisaneventbetweentheseactivitiesthenthechoiceoflinksmayinfluencethe
eventsimpactontheworks.
Yousaidyouhaveanasbuiltcriticalpathsoyoumightalreadybehalfwaythere.Becareful
thoughsomesoftwareproducesasbuiltcriticalpathsonlybecausetheycanthandleas
builtdatesproperlyandkeepthem"live."Finishedactivitiescanthenaffectfutureactivities
from"beyondthegrave."
Italsohelpsifyourcontracttermsaresympathetictoassessmentofactualdelaysto
completion.Moststandardformssaysomethinglike,"islikelytocauseorhascauseddelayto
completion,"whichisconsistentwiththe"asbuiltbutfor"technique,soyoureprobablyOK
there.
Youhaventmentionedanydisputesoveraccelerationbutthe"asbuiltbutfor"techniquecan
calculatethisaswell.Theeffectsofclaimedaccelerationcanbetestedbyaddinginactivities
thatextendtheprogramme:i.e.,"wewouldhavefinishedmuchlaterbutforallthis
wonderfulacceleration."
Disputesoverthistechniqueusuallyarisefromthechoiceoflogictodrivetheasbuilt
programme.Itsapopulartechniqueformanyreasonsbutprincipallyitsgroundedinfact.
Eventscanbeimpactedontheactualdaystheyoccurredandtheprogrammeisverifiable
fromthesiterecords.Yougenerallydontneedtheoriginal,dysfunctionalbaselineand
thereforeyoucertainlydontneedtotryto"correct"it.
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"Timeslice"
ThistechniqueisthedarlingoftheSCLprotocolandderigueurfortheUScourts.Itsthe
mosttimeconsumingtechniquebutgivesthemostfaithfulrenditionoftheworksasthey
progressed,withoutthebenefitofthepartiessometimesprejudicedhindsight.
AndtheContractorgetsto"correct"thebaselinesortof.
Inshort,eacheventisimpactedontoaprogrammethatrepresentsthestatusoftheworks
whenthateventbecameapparent.Eachupdateshouldincludealltheasbuiltdatapriorto
theeventandanydocumentedprogrammerevisionsknowntothepartiespriortotheevent.
Yousaidthattheoriginalbaselinewasshownuptobeunworkableandthisiswhythe
Contractorwantstocorrectit.Ifyouadoptthe"timeslice"methodthentheoriginalbaseline
canberevisedor"corrected"progressively,aseachprogrammingproblembecame
apparent.
Iunderstandyourcontractsupportsupdatingandrevisingtheprogramme.Also,your
Contractorwantstoreworkthebaselineandtheycanjustaslongastheycorrectit
progressivelyaseachprogrammingproblembecameapparentandnotinonealmightyhit,
liketheir"corrected"baselineseekstodo.
Disputesoverthistechniqueusuallyarisefromwhentoimpacteventsandwhentorevisethe
everdevelopingbaselineprogramme.Forexample,iftheContractorclaimsadelayin
receivingasubcontractornominationfromtheEmployer,shouldtheeventbeimpactedonthe
originalprogrammeddateimpactedsuccessivelyuntilthenominationisreceivedoronthe
actualnominationdate?SomejurorsalsogetshirtyaboutcalculatingEOTsonalikelydelay
toprogressinsteadofanactualdelaytocompletion,sometimesaskingwhetheraContractor
actuallyneededtheEOTinhindsight.
Imthinkingyoumightneedtoopenbothsidesuptothepossibilityofadoptingadifferent
techniqueandthenperhapsweighingupwhichargumentsareworthhavingwithyour
Contractor:debateovera"corrected"baselinethatneveractuallyexistedduringtheworks
debateoverthe"asbuilt"logicthatactuallydrovecompletionordebatingwhetheryoucan
barhindsightfromtheanalysisentirelyand"correct"theprogrammeprogressivelyinstead.
Sorryforbeingsoprolixbutgoodluck!
Kindregards,
AdrianArcher.
PickavanceConsultingLimited
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#21
Fri,2005050601:44
PhilipJonker
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HiNeil,
Idonotbelieveinthesocalledasbuiltcriticalpath,norinclaimingwithaprogrammethatis
fixedintheasbuiltstage.Theerrorsshouldhavebeencorrectedproactively,iebeforethe
activitiestookplace,asarevision.AsIunderstandittheprogrammewasapproved,andas
suchshouldformthebasisforaclaim,withoutanyalterations,despitethefactitwassuspect
tobeginwith.IthinkthepointhereisthatitshouldneverhavebeenApproved
Regards
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#22
Thu,2005050522:11
NeilTait
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Top
Mmm,afewdayswithnoresponseImdisappointedatthelackofresponse,butinterpret
thisasmeaninganyoneorcombinationofthefollowing:thosewithexperienceareeitheron
holidayornotreadingthisforumand/orsuchpractiseisuncommonandnotindustry
standard.
Stillinterestedinpersonalexperienceorpointsofreferencerelatedtotheacceptabilityof
correctionstothebaselineprogramme.
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