Six Sigma Executives Training Main Steps of A Six Sigma Project

Six Sigma Executives training
July 24th 2014
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Part 2
MAIN STEPS OF A SIX SIGMA PROJECT
Six Sigma Executives training - July 2014
/2
Six sigma project

Challenges
Challenges of a Six Sigma project:
Reduce the variability of an output parameter of a process
when at the beginning of the project :
o The relevant Y
o The influencing factors Xs
o The transfer function f
o and therefore the optimum configuration of the key Xs to get
the desired Y
Y = f(X1, X2, X3, )

are unknown !
Solution: follow a very systematic and rigorous methodology
/3
Methodology
DMAICS
D M A
SUSTAIN
Solve
the problem
CONTROL
IMPROVE
C S
DEFINE
MEASURE
Understand
the problem
ANALYZE
/4
DMAICS
Main objective of each step
D M A
C S
Define
=> Identify the Y
Measure
=> Identify the main Xs
Analyze
=> Identify the most influencing Xs and the f function
Improve
=> Look for the best solution and implement it
Control
=> Guaranty stability of the solution
Standardize
=> Guaranty sustainability of the solution
/5
DEFINE Phase
Objectives
D M A
C S
1. Define problem and project charter

2. Identify related process and project
scope
3. Determine Voice of Customers (VOC)
and process metrics (CTQs, Ys)
4. Identify costs and benefits
5. Plan the project
/6
DEFINE Phase
Key activities / tools
Identify Cost and Benefits
Business Case
Based on historical data,
analyses, reports
D M A
Define the problem
Project Charter
Define project scope

High-level map of the process
SIPOC
C S
Plan project, define team

and manage stakeholders
SWOT
Communication plan
Project planning
Translate the Voice of the Customer

into process metrics (Ys)
VOC, CTQ, Kano diagram
/7
Define the project scope

SIPOC
D M A
C S
Process:
tool maintenanc e
P
PROCESS
Process
Temperature,
holding time
Re- heating furnac e
water jet dimension
Outside desc aling
pipe c ondition
(OD/Surfac e)
rolls c ondition
Kaliber
OD- toleranc e
sizing mill
tool c hanging/
adjustment
O
OUTPUT
Outputs
finishing lines
rolling mill
OD- measurement
system
OD, ovality
c hec k point
finishing line PAF
c ondition of pipe
Process limit: START

C
CLIENT
Customers
measurement of pipetemperature
Check point
pilgering
I
INPUT
Inputs
Re-heating furnace
S
SUPPLIER
Suppliers
Process limit: END

/8
Translate VOC into CTQ

Principles
D M A
C S
The Voice of the Customer is a set of tools to translate what the

customer of the process wants into measurable characteristics, the
CTQ (Critical To Quality)
CTQ can be:
CTC = Critical to the Customer
CTB = Critical to the Business
The Voice of the Customer tools should be used to:

Determine the project metric (Y)
Verify the importance of the metric initially considered
/9

Get the CTQs
What the customer
wants (VOC)
What the
customer needs
D M A
C S
Critical to
Customer (CTC)
Height of
pizza shell
I want good
service!!
Right
Appearance
Unevenness
of diameter
Color of pizza
shell
Delivery time
Fast Delivery
On time delivery
Right Location
Unspecific
(customer
language)
Addressee
Easy to
measure
internally
/ 10

Prioritize the CTQs
D M A
Project Sponsor & Customer
C S
Focus
here
Height of
pizza shell
Right
Appearance
I want good
service!!
Unevenness
of diameter
Color of pizza
shell
Delivery time
Fast Delivery
On time delivery
Right Location
Addressee
/ 11

Kano Model
D M A
Extra drink
Satisfaction
Types of CTQs
Customer
Excitement
Quality
C S
Performance
Quality
Linear
Delivery
time
Delighter
Degree of CTQ
achievement
Must Be
On time
delivery
No damage
of box
Base
Quality
Warm pizza
Melted
cheese
/ 12

Set Specifications for CTQs
D M A
Good
C S
Bad
Frequ
uency
20
10
0
7,0
7,5
8,0
8,5
9,0
9,5
10,0
10,5
11,0
11,5
12,0
Delivery Time in Minutes
USL
(Upper Specification Limit)
/ 13

From SIPOC to CTQ
1.
Identify
customers /
customer
groups
2.
Gather
customer
data
Reactive data
SIPOC
Process Map Review
historical
Strategic
customer
Plans
data
Proactive data
Interviews
Focus
Groups
Gemba Visits
D M A
3.
Translate
VOC into
CTQ
metrics
Affinity
Diagram
CTQ Tree
Quality
Function
Deployment
(QFD1)
House of
Quality
4.
Categorize
and
prioritize
CTQs
C S
5.
Set
specifications
for CTQs
Kano Model Customer

Prioritization research
BenchMatrix
marking
QFD1
(QFD1)
/ 14
Identify costs and benefits

Business Case
D M A
C S
The business case is a brief justification for why this project is

worthwhile pursuing.
In most cases, it includes the financial rationale for the project.
It links directly to the problem statement and shows the financial
benefits which can be either hard benefits or soft benefits
The business case is based on available data and will be changed
throughout the project as the team moves from evaluating the
potential impact of solving the problem to an assessment of the
benefits of implementing the solution.
The business case includes the expected financial or business
impact of the project.
The business case is an important element of the project charter
and is typically put together by the sponsor and/or a financial
analyst.
/ 15
Define the problem

Project Charter
Lean Six Sigma Project Charter
Project Summary
Project Name
Optimization sizing mill
Business/Location
Pilger mill, Rath
Project Manager (Belt)
Mirko Kobrig
Phone
0211-960 2251
C oach (MBB)
Almut Nagel
Phone
Sponsor
Mark van der Logt
Phone
Start Date
15.04.2014
Target End Date
C harter Revision Date
18.06.2014
C harter Revision No. 1.2
Financial Benefits
150 k/year
C urrent Status:
Project Phase
15.12.2014
Project Details
Project Description
Problem Statement
Business C ase
Process and Process
Owner
Scope
The adjustment of sizing mill is done manually (visual).

A certain number of tubes per lot are close to min or max tolerances (outside
diameter).
need of re-w ork or re-rolling, increase of production time
assuming, that the number of pipes per year, w hich has to be scrapped, re-w orked or
re-rolled can be reduced by half.
Sizing => Mark van der Logt
Process Scope Start of Process Re-heating-furnace
Project Scope
End of Process
pre-inspection PAF
Includes
re-heating, tool changing, adjustment,

OD-measuring, Flux-Leakage
Excludes
Goals and Metrics
Project Goal
Metric/C TQ
Reduction of scrapped or re-worked

pipes due to an OD out of tolerance
Baseline C urrent
percent of losses
Goal Entitlement
25%
Project Planning
C ustomer Benefits
Process stability, lead time, costs (re-rolling/ re-working)
Team Members
C IT-Members, Foreman, Blees, Pereira, Schulz, Malcherowitz
Support Required
Design department, NDT department
Risks/C onstraints
measures and manually adjustment
/ 16
DEFINE Phase
Review
D M A
DEFINE Phase Review checklist
Check/Score
C S
Comments
Team
Is the project team defined and is relevant to cover the project scope?
Has the project team gathered?
SIPOC
Project plan
Project charter
Has the team met the sponsor?

Is the project scope defined and limited enough?
Are project metrics and goals defined and realistic?
Are the business case and expected savings defined, realistic and validated by business control?
Are project stakeholders identified?
Is the communication plan available?
Does the project plan show the expected deliverables, by when they should be available and whom
to involve when?
Are there any quick wins pre-identified?
Is the plan detailed enough for the next 4 weeks?
Is the SIPOC (High level process map) defined?
Are the process limits clearly defined?
Historical
data
VOC
Does each customer receive at least an output from the process?

Is the Voice of Customers (VOC) collected?
Is the VOC translated down into CTQs and potential metrics?
Is historical data available?
Is historical data matching VOC or is the gap clearly identified?
Are pre-conceived or long lasting ideas on the problem listed? Or do we have a verbatim of
experts?
Is project SWOT analysis presented and relevant?

/ 17
MEASURE Phase
Objectives
D M A
C S
1. Decide which variables to

be measured (Ys, Xs)
2. Verify measurement system
and sampling approach
3. Collect data
4. Determine baseline process
capability
/ 18
MEASURE Phase
D M A
C S
Identify
Reduce variables
Verify the
Prepare data collection
potential causes
for measuring
Measurement System
Data Collection Plan
Cause-Effect diagram Priorization matrix
Gage R&R
Harvest fruits
on the ground
Gather data
Identify patterns in data

Pareto charts, Frequency plots
Control charts
Determine baseline
process capability
z, Cp, Cpk
100
200
80
60
100
Percent
Count
150
40
50
0
C4
Count
Percent
Cum %
20
55
C
90
43.5
43.5
B
67
32.4
75.8
G
20
9.7
50
85.5
0
E
14
6.8
92.3
A
11
5.3
97.6
Other
5
2.4
100.0
UCL=52.95
_
X=45.09
45
Yield=86.2%
40
LCL=37.22
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Process Sigma=2.6
/ 19
Identify the variables

Cause and Effect Diagram
D M A
C S
The cause-and-effect or fishbone or Ishikawa diagram is a structured

way to brainstorm potential causes.
The effect (output variable) is the head of the fish while the bones and
sub-bones contain the potential causes (input variables, process
variables) organized following the 5 M.
Material
Use of
different
Letterheads
Training
Environment
Information
in system
Method
VAT
structure
PO number
entering
Processor
Capacity
Wrong
Invoices
Software
Man
Machine
/ 20
Identify the variables

Prioritization Matrix
Numerical
Accuracy
Timeliness
Right
Address
Right
PO Number
C S
Time in month
64
System availability
192
# of staff
100
1
Rank and Weight the
Total
Output Variables
Cross multiply weight and correlation factor
Input
Variable
List all Output Variables
Weight
Output
Variables
Process
Variables
D M A
Project info correct
Efficient Training
Highlight
the64
Critical Few Variables
1
Use of template
124
Account info correct
64
List
all Input
and -Process
Six Sigma
Executives
training
July 2014
Variables
196
Evaluate the Relationship between the

Variables (Correlations)
/ 21
Verify the Measurement system

Conditions to be met
D M A
C S
Six Sigma is about using data for decision making

Before collecting any data, we need to make sure that the measurement
system in use is capable of providing data adequate for decisions
Conditions to be met:
the measurement equipment need to be calibrated
a Gage Linearity study and a Bias study must be conducted to
check the measurement system over the range of continuous
measurements
a Gage R&R study must be conducted to evaluate the systems
repeatability and reproducibility (R&R)
/ 22

Issues
D M A
C S
Precision
Precise
Imprecise
Accuracy
Accurate
Inaccurate
/ 23

Principles
D M A
Observed variation
Variation due to the

production process
2.5
C S
Variation due to the

measurement process
Frequency
2.0
800
1.5
1200
1.0
700
1000
0.5
800
500
0.0
400
15.0
17.5
300
20.0
A Sample
22.5
25.0
Frequency
Frequency
600
600
400
200
200
100
0
-5.4
-3.6
-1.8
0.0
1.8
3.6
5.4
7.2
14.4
Machine
Measurement
Instruments
management
Gage R&R
Accuracy
Stability
Linearity
16.2
18.0
19.8
21.6
Average B
23.4
25.2
Material
Man
Method
Environment
Repeatability
Reproductibility
/ 24

Definitions
D M A
C S
Measurement instruments management

Accuracy = systematical deviation between the average of several
measures and the reference value
Linearity = accuracy varies over the measurement range of the
instrument
Stability = variation of the results of a measurement system on the
same characteristic and on the same material during a long period of
time
Gage R&R
Repeatability = variation of several measures repeated in a sequence
on the same part in the same conditions
Reproducibility = variation of the measures made on the same part
with variation of one of the other conditions (man, etc)
Precision = Repeatability + Reproductibility
/ 25

Gage Linearity and Bias - Principles
D M A
C S
A Gage Linearity Study checks the linearity of a measurement system:

Does the measurement system have the same accuracy for all
sizes of objects being measured?
A Bias Study checks what the difference is between the measurements
and master/reference values.
Linearity and Bias problems should be below 10% of the process
variation.
/ 26

Gage R&R - Calculation
D M A
C S
The dispersion of the measurement process is split between:
S 2 measuremen t _ system = S 2 repeatabil ity + S 2 operators + S 2 int eractions

Reproducibility
Srepeatabil ity =
Soperators =
Dispersion of measures made by the same operator on the same part
Dispersion of measures made by the same operator on all the parts
S int eractions = Dispersion of measures made different operators on different parts
/ 27

Gage R&R Criteria of acceptance
D M A
C S
%R&R
Describes the variation of the measurement system in comparison
to the variation of the process
%R & R =
S measuremen t _ system
S total
%P/T and Cpc

Describes the variation of the measurement system in comparison
to the part tolerances
%P / T =
6 * S measuremen t _ system
Tolerances
Tolerances
Cpc =
6 * S measuremen t _ system
Both the %R&R index and the %P/T index should be below 30% for
an adequate measurement system (Cpc > 3,3)
/ 28
Determine the Process capability

Principles
D M A
C S
Objectives is to estimate the quality of a process (in term of

variation and in term of deviation / target)
Two types of indices to measure quality level of a process:
Process sigma (z of a process)
Process capabilities
Two different time frame:

Short term : intrinsic characteristic of the process
Long term : depends on the short term dispersion and on the way the
process is monitored
Summary:
Process
sigma
Process
capabilities
Short term
z ST
Cp, Cpk
Long term
z LT
Pp, Ppk
The Six Sigma level corresponds to a z ST = 6

/ 29

Process sigma calculation
D M A
C S
Continuous data following a normal distribution

from a sample collected on a short period of time:
zLSL = ( X LSL ) /
zUSL = (USL X ) /
Normal distribution table indicates relationship between z

and the % of defects:
z
0,00
0,01
0,02
0,0
0,5000
0,4960
0,4920
1,0
0,1587
0,1562
0,1539
2,0
0,0228
0,0222
0,0217
zST is derived from the % defects corresponding to z USL +

% defects corresponding to z LSL
z LT = z ST 1,5 (1,5 corresponds to the fact that deviation
of the process will occur over time and that it is difficult to
detect a deviation below 1,5 standard deviation)
/ 30

D M A
C S
Continuous data not following a normal distribution

Two options:
Use another distribution different from the normal distribution
Log normal
Weibull
Exponential
Transform the data to come back to a normal distribution

'
'
Y = LogY or Y = Y (Box transformation)
/ 31

D M A
C S
Discrete data
Data = Defects per Opportunities (DPO)
Defect = every observation that doesnt meet the customer
requirement (as defined as CTQ)
Opportunities per unit = opportunities of defects per unit
# of Defects detected
DPO =
# of Opportunities per unit x # Units produced
Discrete data
Determination of z LT:
Probability of producing no defect = exp (-DPO)
Probability of producing at least one defect = 1 exp (-DPO)
z LT is deduced from the normal distribution table :
z corresponding to the level of defect 1 exp (-DPO)
z ST = z LT + 1,5
/ 32

Process capabilities definition
D M A
C S
90
Cp index:
USL
LSL
80
70
USL LSL
Cp =
6s
Frequency
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
9
10
11
x -1b2 a r
13
14
Tolerance
90
Cpk index:
80
70
USL
60
Frequency
USL - x x - LSL
Cpk = Min (
,
)
3s
3s
LSL
50
40
30
20
10
0
9
10
11
12
x-bar
13
14
Distance to the nearest spec limit

/ 33

Process capabilities calculation
D M A
C S
The difference between Cp, Cpk and Pp, Ppk is how the standard
deviation S is calculated:
Cp and Cpk: S is calculated using short term data, usually 50
samples within a short time frame (i.e. days) representing short
term variation
Pp and Ppk: S is calculated using long term data, usually 50
samples within a longer time frame (i.e. months) representing all
process variation
USL - LSL
Cp =
6s
USL - LSL
Pp =
6s
USL x x - LSL
Cpk = Min(
,
)
3s
3s
Ppk = Min(
USL - x x - LSL
,
)
3s
3s
/ 34

Capabilities chain
Measurement
%P/T < 30% or
Cpc > 3,3
D M A
C S
Condition of a
acceptation of
a process
Short term
z ST > 6 or
Cp > 2
Long term
Pp
Condition of a
acceptation of
a lot
Process stability
Process centered
Long term with

bias
z LT > 4 or
Ppk > 1,33
/ 35
MEASURE Phase
Review
Data display
Data collection
Process
map
Project
plan
Project
charter
MEASURE Phase Review checklist
D M A
Check/Score
C S
Comments
Is there any change in project scope?

Is there any change in project team?
Is there any change in project goals? Is it meaningful to continue with the project?
Are there any quick wins to be implemented?
Has a detailed process map or value stream map been developed?

What did the process or value stream map reveal about the process?
Has the gap between process map and process standard been identified?
Has a list of prioritized potential root causes been developed?
What are the current standard and current specifications?
Has a data collection plan been developed? Does it cover prioritized potential root causes?
Is the measurement system capable? Has a gage R&R been performed?
Is the measurement system in place for monitoring Xs and Ys over the project time?
What is the baseline capability/performance of the process?
Has data been plotted and time plotted? Have patterns been identified?
Have special causes been identified and addressed?
Is more data needed?
Is project SWOT analysis updated?
/ 36
ANALYZE Phase
Objectives
D M A
C S
1. Verify (statistical proof) and

quantify cause-effect
relationships between Y and
Xs
/ 37
ANALYZE Phase
D M A
Visualize data to display:

Data distribution
Time evolution
Cause Effect relationships
C S
Analyze data:
Descriptive statistics
Inferential statistics to verify and
quantify Cause-Effect relationships
Scatterplot of Y vs X
60
55
Discrete
50
Discrete
Chi2
Logistic
Regression
Continuous
t-Test
F-Test
ANOVA
DOE
Regression
45
40
10
11
12
13
14
15
Valeocon. All rights reserved.
A
B
8.4
9.0
9.6
10.2
10.8
11.4
12.0
Continuous
12.6
Hypothesis Regressions
tests
38
Visualize data
Graphical analysis tools
D M A
C S
/ 39
Visualize data
Graphical analysis tools
D M A
C S
/ 40
Visualize data
Cause-Effect relationship
D M A
C S
Tools to display cause-effect relationships:
discrete
discrete
continuous
Bar Chart
Pie Chart
Stratified Frequency Plot

Probability Curve
Stratified Frequency Plot

Multi-vari
Scatter Plot
Y
continuous
Caution: Data relationships dont necessarily mean causation

(use process knowledge).
/ 41
Analyze data
Continuous
Numerical
Graphical
Skewness
Kurtosis
Normality test
Box plot
Histogram
Probability diagram
Mean
Median
Box plot
Histogram
Correlation diagram
Scale
Range
Standard deviation
Variance
Percentile
Box plot
Histogram
Time
Capabilities chain
Control charts
Value
Proportion
Ranking
Time
Z Short term
Z Lon term
+ Test for outlier values
Shape
Discrete
D M A
Position
C S
Attributes control charts
/ 42
Analyze data
Average :
D M A
C S
Standard deviation :
90
80
i =1
60
Frequency
X = Xi / n
70
( X X )
i
50
n 1 = S =
40
30
i =1
20
= R / d '2
10
Range :
n 1
0
9
10
11
12
x-bar
13
14
R = Max( Xi ) Min( Xi )
Variance:
V =
Confidence intervals:
known:
unknown:
X z / 2
X t
< <
S
/2
< <
n
X + z / 2
S
+ /2
n
X t
(t = student law)
(z = normal law)
( / 2 )
< < S
(1 / 2)
(n 1)
(n 1)
= Chi-square law
/ 43
Analyze data
Descriptive statistics Box plot
D M A
C S
/ 44
Analyze data
Inferential statistics - Objective
D M A
C S
Find the Xs (input variables and process variables) with the

strongest influence on the Y (output variable)
Example for Y = f(X1,X2)
V(Y) = V (X1) + V(X2) =>
If X 1 = 5 and X 2 = 1
Y = ( X 1 + X 2)
then Y = 5,099
Reduction of variation
of 20% on X1
X 1 = 4
X 2 = 1
Y = (4 + 1) = 4,123
Y = 5,099 4,123 = 0,976
Reduction of variation
of 100% on X2
X 1 = 5
X 2 = 0
Y = (5 + 0) = 5,000
Y = 5,099 5,000 = 0,099
/ 45
Analyze data
Inferential statistics - Tools
D M A
C S
Tools to verify cause-effect relationship:
X
Discrete
Continuous
Discrete
- Chi2
- 2-Proportions-Test
Logistic
Regression
Cont-inuous
- (Paired) t-Test
- ANOVA
- Test for Equal
Variances (F-test,)
- Non parametic Tests
Linear and non-linear

regression models
Hypothesis
Tests
Regression
Analysis
/ 46
Inferential statistics
Hypothesis tests - Principles
D M A
C S
Hypothesis Testing is a statistical procedure to determine

whether a certain X (discrete) variable causes
differences/changes in the Y based on sample data.
Examples:
Is the average cycle time of office A really
better?
Is the process yield of Cell 1 really higher
than the yield of Cells 2 and 3?
Is the sales volume that rep C creates
really lower than the volume of his
teammates?
Is the component variation from vendor B
really smaller?
47
Hypothesis tests - Principles
D M A
C S
Hypothesis tests are used when you want to compare measures (e.g.
means, medians, proportions) from samples and then draw conclusions
about the population parameters from these sample measures.
Can we conclude a real difference for the population parameters?
Population A
Sample A
X X
X X X X
X
X
X
X
XXX
XA
X X
X X X X
X
X
X
X
Population B
XB
XXX
Sample B
Observed sample measures will almost always be different.
If we are allowed to conclude a real difference, we call the observed

difference significant. If not, we say that the observed difference is only
due to randomness or chance.
/ 48
Hypothesis tests - Decision Errors
D M A
C S
At some point (with data) you must make a decision about the
reality
Since the truth is unfortunately not known, there are two
types of errors:
Reality (Truth)
H0
H0
HA
No error
Beta error
(Type II error)
Alpha error
(Type I error)
No error
Decision
HA
49
Hypothesis tests - Alpha Error
D M A
C S
Example: Comparison between X-bar, mean of a sample and , theoretical average

of the total population with known standard deviation using the z theo test
Means repartition
Means = / n
Total population
/2 risk
X -bar
Zo * / n
50
Hypothesis tests - Beta Error
D M A
C S
Example: Comparison between X-bar, mean of a sample and , theoretical average

of the total population with known standard deviation using the z theo test
True mean
Means repartition
risk
Means = / n
Total population
/2 risk
X-bar
Zo * / n
51
Hypothesis tests - Different types
Comparing
Averages
continuous
Y=
Standard
Deviations
Medians
discrete
Proportions
D M A
X=discrete with...
two or more
two categories
categories
2-sample t-test
paired t-test
ANOVA
Test for Equal Variances

Mann-Whitney test
Kruskal-Wallis test
1-sample sign test
Mood's Median test
2-proportions test
Chi-Square test
C S
Null
Hypothesis
=
=
=
P=P
Note: Hypothesis Tests are used for discrete Xs. Use Regression Analysis for
continuous Xs
/ 52
ANOVA - Principles
D M A
C S
ANOVA is a hypothesis test to compare averages

In case of one factor, the hypothesis H0 that will be tested is: The
deviation between the averages of two modalities of the same
factor is not significant
If H0 is true, then:
the deviation observed between the averages will be only due to
random dispersion.
the variance of the means will be equal to the intra-sample
variance divided by the sample size n
ANOVA will therefore consist in comparing these two variances,
using the F-test
It works when the Y variable is continuous and the X variable is
discrete. Applicable to several factors X, several modalities for
each factor and to interactions between factors
ANOVA requires equal variances and normal distribution within
the groups under comparison.
/ 53
ANOVA Example with two factors
D M A
C S
Parameter
Square
sum
DoF
F p Contrib.
lim
%
Factor A
SSa
a-1
Va =
SSa / (a-1)
Va / Vr
SSa /
SSt
Factor B
SSb
b-1
Vb =
SSb / (b-1)
Vb / Vr
SSb /
SSt
Interaction
AB
SSab
(a-1)*(b-1)
Vab =
SSab / (a-1)*(b-1)
Vab /
Vr
SSab /
SSt
Residuals
SSr
a*b*(r-1)
Vr =
SSr / a*b*(r-1)
Total
SSt
a*b*r - 1
Vt =
SSt / (a*b*r-1)
SSr /
SSt
a = nb of modalities of factor A, b = nb of modalities of factor B,

r = number of repetitionof measures
/ 54
Regression Analysis - Principles
D M A
C S
Regression is a tool to model a continuous output variable (Y) with a

continuous input/process variable (X).
A regression analysis has three main outputs:
Model an equation of the basic form: Y=a0+a1X
P-value how significant is the model?
R how much of reality does the model explain?
Regression analysis step by step:
1. Visualize the data
Scatter Plot
2. Formulate the model (X and Y)
The regression equation
3. Check validity of the model
P-values < 0.05?
Residuals
Normal?
Independent of fits, time, Xs in the model?
4. Check quality of the model
R large?
S (unexplained variation) small?
/ 55
Regression Analysis - Equations
1 X 11
... ...
X = 1 Xi1
... ...
1 Xn1
Y 1
...

Y = Yi

...
Yn
D M A
C S
... X 1 j ... X 1m
1
...
... ... ... ...

... Xij ... Xim a = j

... ... ... ...

...
m
... Xnj ... Xnm
Relation between Y and X:
Y = Xa
Errors (residuals):
e = Y Xa
Solution a (to minimize e) : a = ( X t X ) 1. X tY

Variance of a:
R coefficient:
V (a ) = r ( X t X ) 1
(V (Y ) r )
R =
V (Y )
/ 56
ANALYZE Phase
Review
Process
analysis
Project
plan
Project
charter
ANALYZE Phase Review checklist
D M A
Check/Score
C S
Comments
Is there any change (reduction / focus) in project scope?

Is there any change in project team? Any need for new expertise to develop solutions?
Is there any change in project goals? Is it meaningful to continue with the project?
Are quick wins under implementation?
Has a detailed process map or value stream map been analyzed?

Have basic root causes of process variation and flow issues been identified?
Are potential fixes for basic root causes of process variation identified?
Data analysis
Have the potential root causes statistical significance and correlation been analyzed?
Have the statistical findings been reviewed against the physical /operational / service situation?
Are the validated root causes presented in a graphical and understandable way?
Has a list of prioritized potential improvement directions been validated?
Is the measurement system in place for monitoring Xs and Ys over the project time?
/ 57
IMPROVE Phase
Objectives
D M A
C S
1. Identify solutions
addressing
important Xs
2. Minimize risks and
implement solutions
/ 58
IMPROVE Phase
D M A
Generate potential
Solutions
Creativity techniques
Test and Verify

potential Solutions
DOE
C S
Select Best Solutions

Solution Selection
Matrix
before
Pilot
8.4
9.0
9.6
10.2
10.8
11.4
12.0
12.6
P-value 0.007
Prepare for
Change
Assess and
Mitigate Risks
FMEA
Process
Step/Part
Number
1
Potential Failure Mode
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Potential Failure Effects
S
E
V
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Potential Causes
6
2
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxx
xxxxx
xxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxx
100
81
72
xxxxxxxx
9
xxxxxxxxxx
18
24
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1
xxxxx
1
RP
N
xxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxx
D
E
T
xxx
3
xxxxxxxx
9
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Current Controls
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
4
O
C
C
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Create Commitment
and Implement
Planning
xxxxxxxxxx
0
/ 59
Generate solutions
Creativity techniques
D M A
C S
Objectives: in the ANALYZE phase, the root causes (Xs) for the
variation of the Y have been identified. Objective of the IMPROVE
phase is to identify the optimal configuration of the Xs so that Y
reaches the desired target.
Creativity Techniques : techniques to broaden the scope of potential
solutions and to find really new ideas by thinking out of the box
Tools:
Brainstorming
Brainwriting 6-3-5
Pictures as Idea Triggers
Analogies
/ 60
Test and verify potential solutions

Need for experimentation
D M A
C S
Identified solutions have to be tested and optimized by mean of

experimentations
Design of Experience (DOE) is a structured approach to make
experimentations in order to avoid problems related to non structured
approaches:
High number of experimentations (time, costs,)
Low precision of the results
Lack of modelization
Non optimal solution
The experimental plan is set up in a way:
To get as much information as possible from all the variables
included in the design (each factor will be tested equally often on
each level).
To allow checking for main effects and interactions of factors
/ 61

DOE principles
D M A
C S
Design of Experiments (DOE) is a tool to model a continuous

output variable (Y) with continuous or discrete input/process
variables (Xs).
DOE can be used for different purposes
Screening Reducing the number of Xs
Focusing Verifying and quantifying significant X-Y relationships
Optimizing Determining the best settings for the Xs
DOE describes a way

To set up the experimental data collection (experimental plan).
To analyze the results from the conducted experiment (DOE analysis).
The analysis of DOE has three main outputs:

Model an equation of the form: Y=b0+b1X1+b2X2+b3X1X2
P-values of terms how significant are the factors (Xs)?
R-sq, unexplained how much of the observed variation does the
model explain, what portion remains unexplained?
/ 62

DOE principles
D M A
C S
/ 63

DOE at 2 levels
D M A
C S
Experimentations are made with extreme values of the factors

DOE with 2 factors x 2 levels
Full DOE: all combinations are tested (2=4)
Enables to find the relation: Y=0+ 1 *A + 2* B + 3* A*B
(4 equations with 4 unknown values)
Test #
Factor A Factor B
Min X1
Min X2
Y1
Min X1
Max X2
Y2
Max X1
Min X2
Y3
Max X1
Max X2
Y4
B
Max B
Min B
A
Min A
Max A
/ 64

DOE at 2 levels
D M A
C S
DOE with 3 factors x 2 levels

Full DOE: all combinations are tested (2 = 8)
Enables to find the relation: Y=0+ 1*A + 2* B + 3* C + 4*A*B +
5*A*C + 6*B*C + 7*A*B*C
(8 equations with 8 unknown values)
Notation: 1 = Min value of the factor, 2 = Max value of the factor
3
Test #
2 L4
5Taguchi table
6
B
Max B
Min B
Min C
Max C
Min A
Max A
C
/ 65

DOE at more than 2 levels
D M A
C S
DOE at 2 levels enable to solve a large number of problems (enable

screening up to 15 Xs), but are not sufficient when a finer modelisation
is required
In this case, surface response models are necessary, but they can be
used only once the 2 or 3 Xs with the strongest influence on the Y have
been identified
/ 66
Evaluate and select solutions

Solution Selection Matrix
D M A
C S
In some cases it may be obvious given your knowledge of the process

and problem which solution is the best.
More often, you need to carefully weigh pros and cons.
The Solution Selection Matrix works like the Prioritization Matrix in
the MEASURE phase. It provides a criteria-based decision for the best
solution and helps you to reduce several potential solutions to the one to
be implemented.
To make sure that each member of your team supports and promotes
the solution you should also provide a transparent decision-making
process. Reaching a consensus decision is the best basis for later
success.
/ 67
Assess and mitigate risks

FMEA
D M A
C S
To anticipate potential problems that may result from the change in the
process and to take counter-measures to reduce or eliminate the risks
you can use the FMEA
FMEA is an acronym standing for Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
For each potential failure mode the FMEA provides a Risk Priority
Number (RPN) which is the product of the 3 factors
1. the likely severity of the failure mode
2. the likely occurence of the potential causes of the failure mode
3. the likely detection of the potential causes
/ 68
Assess and mitigate risks

FMEA
Process
Potential Failure Potential Failure
Step/Part
Mode
Effects
Number
S
E
V
Potential Causes
D M A
O
C
C
Current Controls
D R
Actions
E P
Recommended
T N
Responsibility
C S
Actions Taken
List each process step or part number of the product

Identify potential failure modes for each process step or product part
Identify potential effects of each failure and rate its
severity
Identify potential causes of the effects and
rate their likelihood of occurrence
Rate - in consideration of given design or process controls the likelihood of detection of each failure mode
Multiply the three numbers to determine the risk of

each failure mode (RPN = Risk Priority Number)
Identify ways to reduce or eliminate risk associated with high RPNs
/ 69
Implement solution
Implementation Planning
D M A
C S
Once you have improved your process, you need to plan the
implementation of the selected solution(s), i.e.:
Tasks and Timelines:
What are you going to do and when?
Budget and Resources:
Which financial and human resources are needed?
Stakeholders:
Which people and groups are involved in or affected by the
project?
How will they participate or be communicated with?
How to Check:
How will you know if the plans and methods work?
/ 70
IMPROVE Phase
Review
Measurements
and hand-over
Solutions
development
Project plan
Project
charter
IMPROVE Phase Review checklist
D M A
Check/Score
C S
Comments
Is there any change (reduction / focus) in project scope?

Is there any change in project team? Any need for new expertise to support implementation?
Is there any change in project goals?
Is implementation plan defined?
Does implementation plan consider change management?
Is the implementation plan consistent with pilot lessons learned?
Are solutions developed consistent with improvement directions prioritized in ANALYZE phase?
Have potential solutions been tested, verified and prioritized?
Does the process redesign include all developed solutions?
Are implementation and change risks mitigated?
Is the measurement system in place to continue monitoring Xs and Ys?
Is the pilot demonstrating expected improvement? Are full scale solutions consistent with pilot?
Have the solutions and measurements been shared with the process owner?
Is the process owner ready to endorse the developed solutions and implementation plan?
Can the developed solutions be standardized?
/ 71
CONTROL Phase
Objectives
D M A
C S
1. Check result
2. Implement
control system
/ 72
CONTROL Phase
Key activities
Assess the results

New process capability
D M A
Define specifications
for the critical Xs
LSL, USL
C S
Put the solution under control

Process management chart
Control charts
Before
Cp
CPL
CPU
Cpk
CCpk
*
*
0.238
0.238
0.238
USL
16
90
12
80
70
60
0
9
13
17
21
25
29
After
USL
Within
Cp
CPL
CPU
Cpk
CCpk
*
*
0.988
0.988
0.988
Frequency
Within
50
40
24
30
18
20
12
10
USL
LSL
0
9
0
9
13
17
21
25
10
11
12
x-bar
13
14
29
55
UCL=52.95
50
_
X=45.09
45
40
LCL=37.22
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
/ 73

Process Management
D M A
C S
Process Management makes sure that:

The improved process is established
Responsibilities are clarified
Important process measurements for ongoing monitoring have
been established (KPI)
A reaction plan is in place
Process Management asks for establishing leading indicators (X) in
addition to or instead of lagging indicators (Y) based on the analysis
results
/ 74

Process Management Chart
D M A
C S
The Process Management Chart is the primary tool to

monitor the ongoing process
The Process Management Chart:
standardizes and documents
the process
defines measures used to
evaluate process performance
describes data collection
requirements and approach
serves as vehicle for process
reporting and ongoing
improvement
illustrates both leading and
lagging indicators
/ 75

Control charts
D M A
C S
Too often benefits of the implemented changes disappear some months

later
Using Control charts allows you to monitor your process
You can determine both that :
you were able to improve the process and
your achieved results remain over time
I Chart
std
new
350
Individual Value
300
250
200
UCL=185,7
150
_
X=124
100
LCL=62,3
50
0
1
12
18
24
30
36
Observation
42
48
54
60
/ 76

Selecting the right control chart
Data
type
Discrete
D M A
Data
collection
Non conform
parts
Non
conformities
Proportion
Proportion
p-Chart
Counts
np-Chart
C S
Continuous
Counts type
Proportion
Proportion
Counts
u-Chart
c-Chart
Data as
individual
observations
Data in
subgroups
Sub-group
size N
I-EM
Chart
N<=8
N>8
X-bar, R
Chart
X-bar, S
Chart
/ 77

Xbar-R Charts
D M A
C S
The Xbar-R chart is used when you collect continuous data in

subgroups (e.g. in high-volume processes) and want to display the
variation over time.
It's really two charts in one:
A plot of the averages of the subgroups (Xbar chart)
A plot of the range within each subgroup (R chart)
The Xbar-R chart helps in detecting small process shifts. Changes

in process variability can be distinguished from changes in
process average.
Control limits are calculated using the averages and range of the
subgroups and a table of factors.
Prerequisites for using an Xbar-R chart
Continuous data that can be summarized in rational subgroups which
reflect common causes only
Data are independent of each other
/ 78

Xbar-R Charts
D M A
C S
/ 79
CONTROL Phase
Review
Check/Score
C S
Comments
Have the project outcomes been handed over to the process owner?
Are conditions there to meet project goals?
Process control
and monitoring
Are savings reviewed and approved with business control?

Is process monitoring in place and institutionalized?
Documentaion and project

closure
Project
charter
CONTROL Phase Review checklist
D M A
Is new standardized process documented?
Are identified critical process variables under control?

Has change management been implemented?
Are new current process performance evidencing project achievements?
Is change visible to operators and process performers?
Are process responsibilities clear and documented?

Is the new process fully integrated in the QMS and its continuous improvement framework?
Have project lessons learned been documented?
Have potential project extensions and replications been identified and documented?
Is process improvement project methodology becoming the current way of working?
Is there a plan to celebrate project successful closure?
Is new process SWOT analysis available?
/ 80
SUSTAIN Phase
Objectives
D M A
C S
1. Standardize new
process
2. Document learnings
3. Hand over to line
management
4. Close project and
celebrate
/ 81
SUSTAIN Phase
Key activities
Standardize process
SOP
D M A
Document lessons-learned
Hand over to process owner
C S
Close project and

Celebrate
/ 82

Part 2
END
/ 83

Six Sigma Executives Training Main Steps of A Six Sigma Project

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Six Sigma Executives Training Main Steps of A Six Sigma Project

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Six Sigma Executives training

July 24th 2014

Six Sigma Executives training

MAIN STEPS OF A SIX SIGMA PROJECT

Six Sigma Executives training - July 2014

Six sigma project

Y = f(X1, X2, X3, )

Six Sigma Executives training - July 2014

=> Identify the Y

=> Identify the main Xs

=> Identify the most influencing Xs and the f function

=> Look for the best solution and implement it

=> Guaranty stability of the solution

=> Guaranty sustainability of the solution

Six Sigma Executives training - July 2014

1. Define problem and project charter

Six Sigma Executives training - July 2014

Define project scope

Six Sigma Executives training - July 2014

Plan project, define team

Translate the Voice of the Customer

Define the project scope

Re- heating furnac e

water jet dimension

Outside desc aling

Process limit: START

Process limit: END

Translate VOC into CTQ

The Voice of the Customer is a set of tools to translate what the

The Voice of the Customer tools should be used to:

Six Sigma Executives training - July 2014

Translate VOC into CTQ

Translate VOC into CTQ

Project Sponsor & Customer

Six Sigma Executives training - July 2014

Translate VOC into CTQ

Translate VOC into CTQ

Delivery Time in Minutes

Translate VOC into CTQ

Six Sigma Executives training - July 2014

Kano Model Customer

Identify costs and benefits

The business case is a brief justification for why this project is

Six Sigma Executives training - July 2014

Define the problem

Optimization sizing mill

Pilger mill, Rath

Project Manager (Belt)

Mark van der Logt

Target End Date

C harter Revision Date

C harter Revision No. 1.2

The adjustment of sizing mill is done manually (visual).

re-heating, tool changing, adjustment,

Reduction of scrapped or re-worked

Process stability, lead time, costs (re-rolling/ re-working)

C IT-Members, Foreman, Blees, Pereira, Schulz, Malcherowitz

Design department, NDT department

measures and manually adjustment

Six Sigma Executives training - July 2014

DEFINE Phase Review checklist

Has the team met the sponsor?

Does each customer receive at least an output from the process?