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Research Article
022
bt
=
boe
(i)
Rainfall, temperature
t
Time and variables
bo,b1 Regression
parameters to estimated.
For objective 3, in order to confirm the existence of
acceleration, deceleration or stagnation in rainfall and
temperature variable in Nigeria, quadratic equation in
time variable was fitted to the data as follows:
Log Q = a + bt + Ct2 ..
(ii)
In the above specification, the linear and quadratic time
terms gives the secular path in the dependent variable
2
(Q). The quadratic time t allows for the possibility of
acceleration, deceleration or stagnation during the
period of the study (Onyenweaku and Okoye, 2005;
Onyenweaku, 1993 and 2004; Sewat, 1981). Significant
positive value of the coefficient of t2 confirms significant
acceleration; significant negative value of t2 confirms
significant deceleration while non-significance of the
2
coefficient of t implies stagnation or absence of either
acceleration or deceleration in the climate variables.
Objective 4 was analyzed by the use of ordinary least
square regression method specified thus;
= bo+ b1 x1 + b2 x2 + e (iii)
023
Table 1. Average maize output, hectarage productivity and climatic parameters from 1980-2010
Item
Rainfall
Temperature
Output
Hectarage
Yield
Mean
1288.311
31.7173
4,838,1.09
3,3618.10
1.4419
STD. DER.
97.6199
0.5656
2128530
1461,745
03275
Mini
985.31
308083
612,000
438,000
0.9700
Max
1468.33
33.2667
7,525,000
5,472,000
2.2
Source: FAOSTAT and NIMET. (units: output in metric tonnes, rainfall in millimeter, temperature in Degree Centigrades, yield in
metric tonnes ).
Table 2. Estimated functions for production area and productivity of maize in Nigeria, 1980-2010.
Production:
Constant term (a)
Coefficient (b)
0.5656
37.75***
0.3687
16.94***
0.4635
25.05***
14.2075
0.0623
(76.50***)
(6.14***)
14.0979
0.0475
(66.65***)
(4.12***)
Area:
Productivity:
0.1029
0.0148
(2.01***)
(5.01***)
Figures in parenthesis are t-values, * and *** is significant at 10% and 1% level of probability respectively
Rainfall
Temperature
R2
0.3730
F
17.25***
0.2704
10.38***
024
Table 4. Estimated quadratic function in time variable for rainfall and
temperature in Nigeria. 1980-2010.
Defendants variable
Estimated coefficients
bo
7.0497
(189.85***)
3.4389
(380.07***)
Rainfall
Temperature
b1
0.0096
(1.79*)
0.0013
(0.99)
b2
-0.0013
(-0.82)
-0.0000088
(-0.22)
R
0.3877
F
8.86**
0.2717
5.04*
Figures in parentheses are t-values. *,*,*, and *** is significant at 10%, 5% and 1%
respectively.
Confirmation of Acceleration, Deceleration and stagnation of production, area and
productivity of maize in Nigeria. 1980-2010.
Table 5. Estimated quadratic functions in time variables for output, Area and
productivity of maize in Nigeria.
Defendants variable
Estimated coefficients
Production
bo
13.3066
(67.99***)
12.9514
(70.39***)
0.3540
(5.71***)
Area
Productivity
b1
0.2261
(8.02***)
0.2559
(9.66***)
-0.0296
(-3.32**)
b2
-0.0051
(-5.99**)
-0.0065
(-3.11***)
0.0014
(5.13***)
R2
0.8095
F
59.49***
0.8113
60.21***
0.7236
36.66***
Variable
Constant
Output
(semi-log)+
Hectarage
(double log+)
Yield
(Semi-log+)
-284052574
-60.1031
-27.3099
(-5.42)
(-2.67*)
(-2.83**)
13913496
3.1299
1.6133
(4.09***)
(2.14*)
(2.58*)
54769251
15.2048
4.9770
(3.53**)
(2.28*)
(1.75*)
0.5988
0.3332
0.3283
(20.14***)
6.75**
(6.60**)
Rainfall
Temperature
2
025