Hi

All!

Please complete the anonymous
ques5onnaire available from Alex

We will use the data later in the
semester for some in-class demos

Return to Alex at the end of class

Nuts & Bolts Plan for Today

Self-report data collec5on for future demos
Lecture on the impact of T&P
Please have a low threshold for asking ques5ons!!

PSYC 210:

Is T&P Impac*ul?
Do traits really ma6er?
AJ Shackman
29 January 2015

Conceptual Roadmap
Historical perspec5ve: Is T&P a useful predictor of feelings,
thoughts, and acBons? Or are these largely driven by the
situaBon?
Case studies: Illustrate impact
Drill down: Assess the consequences of individual
dierences in ConscienBousness/Self-Control (MoO PNAS
2011)
Ways in which features of contemporary culture potenBally
amplify the impact of T&P
Impact on health, wealth, and public safety

Summary: key take home points

Conceptual Roadmap
Historical perspec5ve: Is T&P a useful predictor of feelings,
thoughts, and acBons? Or are these largely driven by the
situaBon?
Case studies: Illustrate impact

Which really ma6ers?

Drill
down: Assess the consequences of individual
The cookies
dierences
in ConscienBousness/Self-Control (MoO PNAS

2011)
The tendency to violently
eat
ookies in which features of contemporary culture potenBally
cWays
amplify the impact of T&P
Or both?

Impact on health, wealth, and public safety

Summary: key take home points

Conceptual Roadmap
Historical perspec5ve: Is T&P a useful predictor of feelings,
thoughts, and acBons? Or are these largely driven by the
situaBon?
Case studies: Illustrate impact
Drill down: Assess the consequences of individual
dierences in ConscienBousness/Self-Control (MoO PNAS
2011)
Ways in which features of contemporary culture potenBally
amplify the impact of T&P
Impact on health, wealth, and public safety

Summary: key take home points

Conceptual Roadmap
Historical perspec5ve: Is T&P a useful predictor of feelings,
thoughts, and acBons? Or are these largely driven by the
situaBon?
Case studies: Illustrate impact
Drill down: Assess the consequences of individual
dierences in ConscienBousness/Self-Control (MoO PNAS
2011)
Discuss some ways in which features of contemporary culture
can amplify the impact of C/SC
Examine impact of C/SC on health, wealth, and public safety

Summary: key take home points

Conceptual Roadmap
Historical perspec5ve: Is T&P a useful predictor of feelings,
thoughts, and acBons? Or are these largely driven by the
situaBon?
Case studies: Illustrate impact
Drill down: Assess the consequences of individual
dierences in ConscienBousness/Self-Control (MoO PNAS
2011)
Discuss some ways in which features of contemporary culture
can amplify the impact of C/SC
Examine impact of C/SC on health, wealth, and public safety

Summary: key take home points

Is behavior largely determined

by the situa5on?
In
Yes!?
his h
In ighly
his hinuenBal
ighly inuenBal
1968 b1ook,
968 bPook,
ersonality and
Assessment, aW
Personality
nd alter
Assessment,
Mischel aW
rgued
alter tM
hat
ischel
personality
argued
that tpraits
ersonality
have limited
traits huave
Blity
limited
in predicBng
uBlity
behavior
in
predicBng behavior
CorrelaBonal upper limit =~ .30 (~10% variance)

See also Kenrick & Funder Amer Psychol 1988; Roberts et al. Amer Psychol

Is behavior largely determined

by the situa5on?
Yes!? In his highly inuenBal 1968 book,
Personality and Assessment, Walter Mischel
argued that personality traits have limited uBlity
in predicBng behavior

See also Kenrick & Funder Amer Psychol 1988; Roberts et al. Amer Psychol

Is behavior largely determined

by the situa5on?
Yes!? In his highly inuenBal 1968 book,
Personality and Assessment, Walter Mischel
argued that personality traits have limited uBlity
in predicBng behavior
CorrelaBonal upper limit =~ .30 (only ~10%
variance in behavior can be predicted by T&P)

See also Kenrick & Funder Amer Psychol 1988; Roberts et al. Amer Psychol

Whadya mean variance accounted for ?

Variance Accounted For

The amount of variaBon in one measure (e.g., weight) predicted by another (e.g., height)
Equal to the correlaBon squared

So, for a correlaBon of .30

.30 x .30 = .09 = 9% of the variance is shared, explained or predicted

Examples of
Correla5ons

Weight

Variance Accounted For

The amount of variaBon in one measure (e.g., weight) predicted by another (e.g., height)
Equal to the correlaBon squared

100%

64%

16%

0%

Height

So, for a correlaBon of .30

.30 x .30 = .09 = 9% of the variance is shared, explained or predicted

Is behavior largely determined

by the situa5on?
Yes!? In his highly inuenBal 1968 book,
Personality and Assessment, Walter Mischel
argued that personality traits have limited uBlity
in predicBng behavior
CorrelaBonal upper limit =~ .30 (only ~10%
variance in behavior can be predicted by T&P)

Therefore, other factors (i.e., situaBon!), must be
responsible for the vast amounts of variance that
are unaccounted for

See also Kenrick & Funder Amer Psychol 1988; Roberts et al. Amer Psychol

Is behavior largely determined

by the situa5on?
Yes!? In his highly inuenBal 1968 book,
Personality and Assessment, Walter Mischel
argued that personality traits have limited uBlity
in predicBng behavior
CorrelaBonal upper limit =~ .30 (only ~10%
variance in behavior can be predicted by T&P)

Therefore, other factors (i.e., situaBon!), must be
responsible for the vast amounts of variance that
are unaccounted for
For the next several decades, research on T&P
languished because of this apparently devastaBng
criBque (The 10% Barrier)

See also Kenrick & Funder Amer Psychol 1988; Roberts et al. Amer Psychol

Students

What do you think?

Is the situaDon really all powerful or
are trait-like individual dierences in
T&P predicDve and impac*ul?

T&P is impac*ul

Academic Performance

Academic Performance

Based on a meta-analysis of personality-academic performance relaBonships based
on the Five Factor Model of T&P and data from more than 70,000 subjects

Academic performance in college was predicted by individual dierences in

ConscienBousness; more ConscienBous students achieved higher performance

Remarkably, the size of the Personality-Performance correlaBon was similar in size to IQ

Studentswho are low on ConscienBousness [are]nearly twice as likely to fail
a preOy whopping eect
Meta-analysis: sta5s5cal technique for combining results from mul5ple studies hOps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta-analysis
Five Factor Model = Big 5 = OCEAN (Openness, Conscien5ousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuro5cism)

Academic Performance

Based on a meta-analysis of personality-academic performance relaBonships based
on the Five Factor Model of T&P and data from more than 70,000 subjects

Academic performance in college was predicted by individual dierences in

ConscienBousness; more ConscienBous students achieved higher performance

Remarkably, the size of the Personality-Performance correlaBon was similar in size to IQ

Studentswho are low on ConscienBousness [are]nearly twice as likely to fail
a preOy whopping eect
Meta-analysis: sta5s5cal technique for combining results from mul5ple studies hOps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta-analysis
Five Factor Model = Big 5 = OCEAN (Openness, Conscien5ousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuro5cism)

Academic Performance

Based on a meta-analysis of personality-academic performance relaBonships based
on the Five Factor Model of T&P and data from more than 70,000 subjects

Academic performance in college was predicted by individual dierences in

ConscienBousness; more ConscienBous students achieved higher performance

Remarkably, the size of the Personality-Performance correlaBon was similar in size to IQ

Studentswho are low on ConscienBousness [are]nearly twice as likely to fail
a preOy whopping eect
Meta-analysis: sta5s5cal technique for combining results from mul5ple studies hOps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta-analysis
Five Factor Model = Big 5 = OCEAN (Openness, Conscien5ousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuro5cism)

Academic Performance

Meta-analysis: sta5s5cal technique for combining results from mul5ple studies hOps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta-analysis
Five Factor Model = Big 5 = OCEAN (Openness, Conscien5ousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuro5cism)

Academic Performance

Based on a meta-analysis of personality-academic performance relaBonships based
on the Five Factor Model of T&P and data from more than 70,000 subjects

Academic performance in college was predicted by individual dierences in

ConscienBousness; more ConscienBous students achieved higher performance

Remarkably, the size of the Personality-Performance correlaBon was similar in size to IQ

Students low in ConscienBousness arenearly twice as likely to fail
a preOy whopping eect
Meta-analysis: sta5s5cal technique for combining results from mul5ple studies hOps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta-analysis
Five Factor Model = Big 5 = OCEAN (Openness, Conscien5ousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuro5cism)

Academic Performance

Based on a meta-analysis of personality-academic performance relaBonships based
on the Five Factor Model of T&P and data from more than 70,000 subjects

Academic performance in college was predicted by individual dierences in

ConscienBousness; more ConscienBous students achieved higher performance

Remarkably, the size of the Personality-Performance correlaBon was similar in size to IQ

Students low in ConscienBousness arenearly twice as likely to fail
a preOy whopping eect
Meta-analysis: sta5s5cal technique for combining results from mul5ple studies hOps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta-analysis
Five Factor Model = Big 5 = OCEAN (Openness, Conscien5ousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuro5cism)

Marital Stability & Sa5sfac5on

Marital Stability & Sa5sfac5on

Based on a meta-analysis of 115 longitudinal studies

incorporaBng ~45,000 couples

Correla5on With Marital Stability (+ = Stable; - = Divorce)

Examined a whole slew of dierent

factors to see which predicted
future divorces


Individual dierences in
Neuro5cism are among the
strongest predictors of divorce

Correla5on With Marital Stability (+ = Stable; - = Divorce)

Examined a whole slew of dierent

factors to see which predicted
future divorces


Individual dierences in
Neuro5cism were among the
strongest predictors of divorce


Husbands and wives with higher
levels of Neuro5cism were much
more likely to divorce

Correla5on With Marital Stability (+ = Stable; - = Divorce)

Examined a whole slew of dierent

factors to see which predicted
future divorces


Individual dierences in
Neuro5cism were among the
strongest predictors of divorce


Husbands and wives with higher
levels of Neuro5cism were much
more likely to divorce

Correla5on With Marital Stability (+ = Stable; - = Divorce)

Examined a whole slew of dierent

factors to see which predicted
future divorces


Individual dierences in
Neuro5cism were among the
strongest predictors of divorce


Husbands and wives with higher
levels of Neuro5cism were much
more likely to divorce


Neuro5cism out-predicts factors
such as age at marriage, parental
divorce, and pre-marital
cohabita5on

Correla5on With Marital Stability (+ = Stable; - = Divorce)

Examined a whole slew of dierent

factors to see which predicted
future divorces


Individual dierences in
Neuro5cism were among the
strongest predictors of divorce


Husbands and wives with higher
levels of Neuro5cism were much
more likely to divorce


Neuro5cism out-predicts factors
such as age at marriage, parental
divorce, and pre-marital
cohabita5on

Mental Health

Mental Health

Analysis of 20,692 Swedish twins

T&P measured at baseline; Clinical follow-up >25 years later
An increase of 1 SD in NeuroBcism scores was associated with a
31% greater risk of depression

Mental Health

Analysis of 20,692 Swedish twins

T&P measured at baseline; Clinical follow-up >25 years later
An increase of one unit (1 SD) in NeuroBcism was associated with a
31% greater risk of depression

Mental Health

For comparison purposes, a Cohens

d of 1.04 is equivalent to r = .46, or
about 21% shared variance

Can also be framed as a ~1 SD
dierence

PreMy whopping eects!

Lahey Amer Psychol 2009

For comparison purposes, a Cohens

d of 1.04 is equivalent to r = .46, or
about 21% shared variance

Can also be framed as a ~1 SD or 1
standard unit dierence

PreMy whopping eects!

Lahey Amer Psychol 2009

For comparison purposes, a Cohens

d of 1.04 is equivalent to r = .46, or
about 21% shared variance

Can also be framed as a ~1 SD or 1
standard unit dierence

PreMy whopping eects!

Lahey Amer Psychol 2009

Physical Illness (Morbidity)

Five Factor Model = Big 5 = OCEAN (Openness, Conscien5ousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuro5cism)

Physical Illness (Morbidity)

Based on physician raBngs of illness from primary care paBents

(n=449; 65-97 years old) once a year for 4 years

T&P strongly predicted illness

Disagreeable persons aged33% faster than Agreeable persons
At the nal follow-up, a person high in NeuroBcism and low in
ConscienBousness and Agreeableness showed morbidity
comparable to a peer with average personality but 10 years older
Five Factor Model = Big 5 = OCEAN (Openness, Conscien5ousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuro5cism)

Physical Illness (Morbidity)

Based on physician raBngs of illness from primary care paBents,

(n=449; 65-97 years old) once a year for 4 years

T&P strongly predicted illness

Disagreeable persons aged33% faster than Agreeable persons
At the nal follow-up, a person high in NeuroBcism and low in
ConscienBousness and Agreeableness showed morbidity
comparable to a peer with average personality but 10 years older
Five Factor Model = Big 5 = OCEAN (Openness, Conscien5ousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuro5cism)

Physical Illness (Morbidity)

Based on physician raBngs of illness from primary care paBents,

(n=449; 65-97 years old) once a year for 4 years

T&P strongly predicted illness

Disagreeable persons aged33% faster than Agreeable persons
Individuals high in NeuroBcism and low in ConscienBousness and
Agreeableness showed illness levels comparable to a peer with
average personality but 10 years older
Five Factor Model = Big 5 = OCEAN (Openness, Conscien5ousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuro5cism)

Physical Illness (Morbidity)

Based on a 4 year study of 6,904 older adults

T&P at baseline strongly predicted the onset of new illnesses

A one unit (SD) increase in ConscienBousness decreased the odds

of a stroke by 37%, high blood pressure by 27%, diabetes by 20%,
and arthriBs by 23%
A one unit (SD) increase in NeuroBcism increased the odds of a
heart condiBon by 24%, lung disease by 29%, high blood pressure
by 37%, and arthriBs by 25%

Physical Illness (Morbidity)

Based on a 4 year study of 6,904 older adults

T&P at baseline strongly predicted the onset of new illnesses

A one unit (SD) increase in ConscienBousness decreased the odds

of a stroke by 37%, high blood pressure by 27%, diabetes by 20%,
and arthriBs by 23%
A one unit (SD) increase in NeuroBcism increased the odds of a
heart condiBon by 24%, lung disease by 29%, high blood pressure
by 37%, and arthriBs by 25%

Physical Illness (Morbidity)

Based on a 4 year study of 6,904 older adults

T&P at baseline strongly predicted the onset of new illnesses

A one unit (1 SD) increase in ConscienBousness decreased the odds

of a stroke by 37%, high blood pressure by 27%, diabetes by 20%,
and arthriBs by 23%
A one unit (1 SD) increase in NeuroBcism increased the odds of a
heart condiBon by 24%, lung disease by 29%, high blood pressure
by 37%, and arthriBs by 25%

Physical Illness (Morbidity)

Based on a 4 year study of 6,904 older adults

T&P at baseline strongly predicted the onset of new illnesses

A one unit (1 SD) increase in ConscienBousness decreased the odds

of a stroke by 37%, high blood pressure by 27%, diabetes by 20%,
and arthriBs by 23%
A one unit (1 SD) increase in NeuroBcism increased the odds of a
heart condiBon by 24%, lung disease by 29%, high blood pressure
by 37%, and arthriBs by 25%

Death (Longevity)

Psych Med 2008; see also Shipley et al PM 2007; Neeleman et al PM 2002; MarBn et al HP 2007; Roberts et al PPS 2007; Deary et al PS 2008; Jackson et al PS 2015; Turiano et al HP 2015

Death (Longevity)

>2,000 older residents of BalBmore

Assessed T&P at baseline and mortality 18 years later

A decrease of 1 unit (SD) in ConscienBousness was associated with a
27% greater risk of dying
An increase of 1 unit (SD) in NeuroBcism was associated with a
15% greater risk of dying
Psych Med 2008; see also Shipley et al PM 2007; Neeleman et al PM 2002; MarBn et al HP 2007; Roberts et al PPS 2007; Deary et al PS 2008; Jackson et al PS 2015; Turiano et al HP 2015

Death (Longevity)

>2,000 older residents of BalBmore

Assessed T&P at baseline and mortality 18 years later

A decrease of 1 unit (SD) in ConscienBousness was associated with a
27% greater risk of dying
An increase of 1 unit (SD) in NeuroBcism was associated with a
15% greater risk of dying
Psych Med 2008; see also Shipley et al PM 2007; Neeleman et al PM 2002; MarBn et al HP 2007; Roberts et al PPS 2007; Deary et al PS 2008; Jackson et al PS 2015; Turiano et al HP 2015

Death (Longevity)

Death (Longevity)

6,158 older residents of Chicago

At the 6 year follow up, 39.5% of the sample had died

Subjects with high NeuroBcism were 33% more likely to die than
those with low NeuroBcism

Death (Longevity)

6,158 older residents of Chicago

At the 6 year follow up, 39.5% of the sample had died

Subjects with high NeuroBcism were 33% more likely to die than
those with low NeuroBcism

Death (Longevity)

6,158 older residents of Chicago

At the 6 year follow up, 39.5% of the sample had died

Subjects with high NeuroBcism were 33% more likely to die than
those with low NeuroBcism

Tremendous Economic Impact

NeuroBcism is associated with smoking, physical illness, and
psychiatric disorders

This is tremendously expensive!

In 2007 dollars, each individual in the top 5% imposed an economic

burden $12, 362 in excess costs (e.g., direct/indirect medical costs;
loss of producBvity and work absences)

The total excess costs of neuroBcism resulBng from the 25% highest
scorers was about $AGP
1.4B
2010; cf. Lahey Amer Psych 2009; Mroczek HP 2015; Kotov et al Psych Bull 2010

Tremendous Economic Impact

NeuroBcism, for example, is associated with smoking, substance use,

physical illness, and psychiatric disorders

This is tremendously expensive!

In 2007 dollars, each individual in the top 5% imposed an economic

burden $12, 362 in excess costs (e.g., direct/indirect medical costs;
loss of producBvity and work absences)

The total excess costs of neuroBcism resulBng from the 25% highest
scorers was about $AGP
1.4B
2010; cf. Lahey Amer Psych 2009; Mroczek HP 2015; Kotov et al Psych Bull 2010

Tremendous Economic Impact

NeuroBcism, for example, is associated with smoking, substance use,

physical illness, and psychiatric disorders

As you can imagine, this is tremendously expensive!

In 2007 dollars, each individual in the top 5% imposed an economic

burden $12, 362 in excess costs (e.g., direct/indirect medical costs;
loss of producBvity and work absences)

The total excess costs of neuroBcism resulBng from the 25% highest
scorers was about $AGP
1.4B
2010; cf. Lahey Amer Psych 2009; Mroczek HP 2015; Kotov et al Psych Bull 2010

Tremendous Economic Impact

NeuroBcism, for example, is associated with smoking, substance use,

physical illness, and psychiatric disorders

As you can imagine, this is tremendously expensive!

In 2007 dollars, each individual in the top 5% imposed an economic

burden $12, 362 in excess costs (e.g., direct/indirect medical costs;
loss of producBvity and work absences)

The total excess costs of neuroBcism resulBng from the 25% highest
scorers was ~$1.4B AGP 2010; cf. Lahey Amer Psych 2009; Turiano HP 2015; Kotov et al Psych Bull 2010

Drill down into Mo6 11:

ConscienDousness / Self-Control (C/SC)

Self Control (SC)

Eorbul regula5on of behavior, emo5onal, & cogni5ve impulses to achieve long-
term goals

Extremely broad, relaBvely messy broad-band construct

Folk psychology (Ben Franklin) / Philosophy / Character: willpower, self-control, self-

discipline

Developmental / Temperament: delay of graBcaBon

Psychoanaly5c: ego

Cogni5ve Neuroscience: execuBve control, hierarchical control models

Behavioral Economic Theory: opt in vs. opt out; intertemporal delay/discounBng

Personality: Conscien5ousness

responsibility, industriousness, and orderliness.

Duckworth PNAS 2011

Self Control (SC)

Eorbul regula5on of behavior, emo5onal, & cogni5ve impulses to achieve long-
term goals

Extremely broad, but relaBvely messy construct

Folk psychology (Ben Franklin) / Philosophy / Character: willpower, self-control, self-

discipline

Developmental / Temperament: delay of graBcaBon

Psychoanaly5c: ego

Cogni5ve Neuroscience: execuBve control, hierarchical control models

Behavioral Economic Theory: opt in vs. opt out; intertemporal delay/discounBng

Personality: Conscien5ousness

responsibility, industriousness, and orderliness.

Duckworth PNAS 2011

Are individual dierences

in C/SC important?

It seems that less-evolved species are not tortured in the same way as we humans,
who struggle to stay on diets, kick smoking habits, stop bi5ng our nails, put an end
to procras5na5ng, control our tempers, and otherwise follow through on
resolu5ons
Students: we know will improve our overall well-being. We human beings oRen
want,
and want to want, dierent things ...

What are some intui5ve ways in which C/SC might be important, aside from
MoM
et apl.
provide convincing
evidence that some of us are beMer than others at
academic
erformance
and mortality?
doing
what we want to want and


that
the capacity to govern ourselves eec5vely in the face of tempta5on has

profound benets across every major domain of life func5oning.

Duckworth PNAS 2011

Maybe important?

It seems that less-evolved species are not tortured in the same way as we humans,
who struggle to stay on diets, kick smoking habits, stop bi5ng our nails, put an end
to procras5na5ng, control our tempers, and otherwise follow through on
resolu5ons
we
know will improve
well-being.
e human
oRen
It seems that
less-evolved
species oaur
re onverall
ot tortured
in the W
same
way abs eings
we humans,
want,
and want
o woant,
dierent
things ...
who struggle
to sttay
n diets,
kick smoking
habits, stop bi5ng our nails, put an end
to procras5na5ng, control our tempers, and otherwise follow through on
MoM
et al.
convincing
evidence
that
ome of us Wae
re hbuman
eMer tbhan
others
at
resolu5ons
wpe rovide
know w
ill improve
our overall
wsell-being.
eings
oRen
doing
hat wwant
e wtant
o want
and things ...
want, w
and
o wtant,
dierent

that
the capacity
govern
ourselves eec5vely in the face of tempta5on has
IF tTo IME:
hOp://www.youtube.com/watch?

profound
benets
across every major domain of life func5oning.
v=QX_oy9614HQ

Duckworth PNAS 2011

Maybe important?

It seems that less-evolved species are not tortured in the same way as we humans,
who struggle to stay on diets, kick smoking habits, stop bi5ng our nails, put an end
to procras5na5ng, control our tempers, and otherwise follow through on
resolu5ons
we
know will improve
well-being.
e human
oRen
It seems that
less-evolved
species oaur
re onverall
ot tortured
in the W
same
way abs eings
we humans,
want,
and want
o woant,
dierent
things ...
who struggle
to sttay
n diets,
kick smoking
habits, stop bi5ng our nails, put an end
to procras5na5ng, control our tempers, and otherwise follow through on
MoM
et al.
convincing
evidence
that
ome of us Wae
re hbuman
eMer tbhan
others
at
resolu5ons
wpe rovide
know w
ill improve
our overall
wsell-being.
eings
oRen
doing
hat wwant
e wtant
o want
and things ...
want, w
and
o wtant,
dierent

that the capacity
govern
ourselves eec5vely in the face of tempta5on has
IF tTo IME:
hOp://www.youtube.com/watch?
profound benets
across every major domain of life func5oning.
v=QX_oy9614HQ


Profound implica5ons for socie5es where tax payers are asked to fund public
educa5on, public penal systems, and public health insurancewere all in it
together, at least monetarily

The public (you and me!) is now a signicant stakeholder because were on the
hook

Duckworth PNAS 2011; see also MoO et al Amer Sci 2013

Modern society amplies T&Ps impact

This is a really big deal because of how modern society is structured:

#1. Increased cumula5ve impact: Live much longer, requiring individuals to pay
strategic aOenBon to their health and wealth to avoid disability and poverty in old
age

Modern society amplies T&Ps impact

This is a really big deal because of how modern society is structured:

#1. Increased cumula5ve impact: Live much longer, requiring individuals to pay
strategic aOenBon to their health and wealth to avoid disability and poverty in old
age

#2. Increased risk exposure: Modern history has also seen marked increases in
food availability, sedentary occupaBons, access to harmful addicBve substances,
ease of divorce, self-management of reBrement savings, and imprisonment of law-
breakers

Modern society amplies T&Ps impact

This is a really big deal because of how modern society is structured:

#1. Increased cumula5ve impact: Live much longer, requiring individuals to pay
strategic aOenBon to their health and wealth to avoid disability and poverty in old
age

#2. Increased risk exposure: Modern history has also seen marked increases in
food availability, sedentary occupaBons, access to harmful addicBve substances,
ease of divorce, self-management of reBrement savings, and imprisonment of law-
breakers

#3. Mood and anxiety disorders: As we have conquered many of the diseases of
early life and middle age, mood and anxiety disorders are now a leading source of
sickness, disability, and mortality in the developed and developing world

Modern society amplies T&Ps impact

This is a really big deal because of how modern society is structured:

#1. Increased cumula5ve impact: Live much longer, requiring individuals to pay
strategic aOenBon to their health and wealth to avoid disability and poverty in old
age

#2. Increased risk exposure: Modern history has also seen marked increases in
food availability, sedentary occupaBons, access to harmful addicBve substances,
ease of divorce, self-management of reBrement savings, and imprisonment of law-
breakers

#3. Mood and anxiety disorders: As we have conquered many of the diseases of
early life and middle age, mood and anxiety disorders are now a leading source of
sickness, disability, and mortality in the developed and developing world

Together, these historical shiis are enhancing the poten5al impact of individual
dierences in C/SC and Neuro5cism in modern life

hOp://www.moOcaspi.com

Avshalom Caspi & Temmi Mok (Duke/Kings

College, London)
- a.k.a. Shackmans undergraduate advisors
- Caspi was the instructor for my Personality class

hOp://www.moOcaspi.com

Students

What was the basic design and aim of
the Mo6 et al study?

 Dunedin Study

 Dunedin Study
Large, representaBve birth cohort
* The 1037 babies born in Dunedin, New Zealand between 1 April 1972 and 31 March
1973 at the Queen Mary Maternity Hospital.

* 535/502 boys/girls; 1,013/24 singletons/twins; 1014 of the original cohort are sBll
alive (~2% mortality @ 32 yrs)

* Assessments: 3,5,7,9,11,13,15,18,21,26,32 yrs

* Very low akri5on rate: Study Members come back to the Dunedin research unit for
a one-day assessment from wherever in the world they are living - an impressive
exercise considering more than 50 of them now live in the UK alone! Once in Dunedin,
almost all aspects of their physical and mental health are examined - this includes
cardiovascular, dental, respiratory, sexual and mental health, psychosocial well-being,
and detailed interviews about relaBonships, behavior and family.

* NZ: Centralized crime registry, etc, enriches the informaBon that can be gleaned

* Generated more pubs than subs (>1,100)

 Dunedin Study
Large, representaBve birth cohort
* The 1037 babies born in Dunedin, New Zealand between 1 April 1972 and 31 March
1973 at the Queen Mary Maternity Hospital.

* 535/502 boys/girls; 1,013/24 singletons/twins; 1014 of the original cohort are sBll
alive (~2% mortality @ 32 yrs)

* Assessments: 3,5,7,9,11,13,15,18,21,26,32 yrs

* Very low akri5on rate: Study Members come back to the Dunedin research unit for
a one-day assessment from wherever in the world they are living - an impressive
exercise considering more than 50 of them now live in the UK alone! Once in Dunedin,
almost all aspects of their physical and mental health are examined - this includes
cardiovascular, dental, respiratory, sexual and mental health, psychosocial well-being,
and detailed interviews about relaBonships, behavior and family.

* NZ: Centralized crime registry, etc, enriches the informaBon that can be gleaned

* Generated more pubs than subs (>1,100)

 Dunedin Study
Large, representaBve birth cohort
* The 1037 babies born in Dunedin, New Zealand between 1 April 1972 and 31 March
1973 at the Queen Mary Maternity Hospital.

* 535/502 boys/girls; 1,013/24 singletons/twins; 1014 of the original cohort are sBll
alive (~2% mortality @ 32 yrs)

* Assessments: 3,5,7,9,11,13,15,18,21,26,32 yrs

* Very low akri5on rate: Study Members come back to the Dunedin research unit for
a one-day assessment from wherever in the world they are living - an impressive
exercise considering more than 50 of them now live in the UK alone! Once in Dunedin,
almost all aspects of their physical and mental health are examined - this includes
cardiovascular, dental, respiratory, sexual and mental health, psychosocial well-being,
and detailed interviews about relaBonships, behavior and family.

* NZ: Centralized crime registry, etc, enriches the informaBon that can be gleaned

* Generated more pubs than subs (>1,100)

 Dunedin Study
Large, representaBve birth cohort
* The 1037 babies born in Dunedin, New Zealand between 1 April 1972 and 31 March
1973 at the Queen Mary Maternity Hospital.

* 535/502 boys/girls; 1,013/24 singletons/twins; 1014 of the original cohort are sBll
alive (~2% mortality @ 32 yrs)

* Assessments: 3,5,7,9,11,13,15,18,21,26,32 yrs

* Very low akri5on rate: Study Members come back to the Dunedin research unit for
a one-day assessment from wherever in the world they are living - an impressive
exercise considering more than 50 of them now live in the UK alone! Once in Dunedin,
almost all aspects of their physical and mental health are examined - this includes
cardiovascular, dental, respiratory, sexual and mental health, psychosocial well-being,
and detailed interviews about relaBonships, behavior and family.

* NZ: Centralized crime registry, etc, enriches the informaBon that can be gleaned

* Generated more pubs than subs (>1,100)

 Dunedin Study
Large, representaBve birth cohort
* The 1037 babies born in Dunedin, New Zealand between 1 April 1972 and 31 March
1973 at the Queen Mary Maternity Hospital.

* 535/502 boys/girls; 1,013/24 singletons/twins; 1014 of the original cohort are sBll
alive (~2% mortality @ 32 yrs)

* Assessments: 3,5,7,9,11,13,15,18,21,26,32 yrs

* Very low akri5on rate: Study Members come back to the Dunedin research unit for
a one-day assessment from wherever in the world they are living - an impressive
exercise considering more than 50 of them now live in the UK alone! Once in Dunedin,
almost all aspects of their physical and mental health are examined - this includes
cardiovascular, dental, respiratory, sexual and mental health, psychosocial well-being,
and detailed interviews about relaBonships, behavior and family.

* NZ: Centralized crime registry, etc, enriches the informaBon that can be gleaned

* Generated more pubs than subs (>1,100)



Students:

What is the scien5c value of a longitudinal sample,
where subjects are repeatedly assessed over 5me?

Put another way, why is a longitudinal study beOer than alternaBve study designs, such as
collecBng data in adulthood and then geng retrospecBve measures of childhood T&P?



Students:

What is the scien5c value of a longitudinal sample,
where subjects are repeatedly assessed over 5me?

Put another way, why is a longitudinal study beOer than alternaBve study designs, such as
collecBng data in adulthood and then geng retrospecBve measures of childhood T&P?



OK, so why isnt every study longitudinal?



Students:

What is the scien5c value of a longitudinal sample,
where subjects are repeatedly assessed over 5me?

Put another way, why is a longitudinal study beOer than alternaBve study designs, such as
collecBng data in adulthood and then geng retrospecBve measures of childhood T&P?



OK, so why isnt every study longitudinal?



Whats the key scien5c limita5on of a longitudinal study ?

Students

How did Mo6 and colleagues
quanDfy childhood self-control?

Age appropriate, mulB-occasion, mulB-informant composite

Consistency across sengs, rater, assessment tech., and ages
Not just self-report!
Increases likelihood that T&P will be predicBve

MoO PNAS 2011

Age appropriate, mulB-occasion, mulB-informant composite

Consistency across sengs, rater, assessment tech., and ages
Not just self-report!
Increases likelihood that T&P will be predicBve

MoO PNAS 2011

Does childhood self-control predict later health,

wealth, and crime? Similarly at all points along
the self-control gradient?

MoO PNAS 2011

Does childhood self-control predict later health,

wealth, and crime? Similarly at all points along
the self-control gradient?

MoO PNAS 2011

Does childhood self-control predict later health,

wealth, and crime? Similarly at all points along
the self-control gradient?

Yes! Suggests that interven5ons that achieve even small

improvements could shii the en5re distribu5on of
outcomes in a favorable direc5on. Further, a ssocia5ons

remained signicant aier controlling for SES
a nd
I Q.
MoO PNAS 2011

What mediates the link connecDng

childhood self-control to deleterious
outcomes in midlife?

Assessed teen smoking, drop out, teen parenBng,

enabling authors to test whether these youthful
mistakes close doors of opportunity and ensnare
vicBms in deleterious lifestyles (snowball/cascade)

MoO PNAS 2011

Utopian Subsample: Children who avoided teen mistakes

(smoking, dropping out of school, teen parenthood)

Grew up to be adults with beOer health, greater wealth,
and lower crime convicBon than those with similar self-
control levels who did not avoid these pialls

MoO PNAS 2011

Utopian Subsample: Children who avoided teen mistakes

(smoking, dropping out of school, teen parenthood)

Grew up to be adults with beOer health, greater wealth,
and lower crime convicBon than those with similar self-
control levels who did not avoid these teen snares

MoO PNAS 2011

Utopian Subsample: Children who avoided teen mistakes

(smoking, dropping out of school, teen parenthood)

Grew up to be adults with beOer health, greater wealth,
and lower crime convicBon than those with similar self-
control levels who did not avoid these teen snares

StaBsBcally controlling for the snares reduced the eect
of C/SC on health by 32%, substance dependence by 63%,
SES by 35%, nancial struggles by 47%, and crime by 42%.
BUT the inuence self-control remained staBsBcally
signicant for nearly every outcome measure

MoO PNAS 2011

Utopian Subsample: Children who avoided teen mistakes

(smoking, dropping out of school, teen parenthood)

Grew up to be adults with beOer health, greater wealth,
and lower crime convicBon than those with similar self-
control levels who did not avoid these teen snares

StaBsBcally controlling for the snares reduced the eect
of C/SC on health by 32%, substance dependence by 63%,
SES by 35%, nancial struggles by 47%, and crime by 42%.
BUT the inuence self-control remained staBsBcally
signicant for nearly every outcome measure

Suggests that intervenBons aimed at prevenBng teen
snares would parBally but not completely prevent
deleterious outcomes

Perhaps beOer to intervene earlier and target the root
cause (low C/SC) rather than treaBng the early-warning
symptoms

MoO PNAS 2011

Key Take Home Points

Key Take Home Points

1. SituaBon/context is not king! Individual dierences in T&P
are robust predictors of a variety of pracBcally important
outcomes, e.g.,
-
-
-
-
-

academic performance (NB: above and beyond IQ)

marital stability (divorce)
health (mortality / longevity) and dependence on health care system
wealth and dependence on social services
public safety (incarceraBon, contact with criminal jusBce system)

Key Take Home Points

1. SituaBon/context is not king! Individual dierences in T&P
are robust predictors of a variety of pracBcally important
outcomes, e.g.,
- academic performance (NB: above and beyond IQ)
- marital stability (divorce)
- health (morbidity and mortality) and dependence on health care
system
- wealth and dependence on social services
- public safety (incarceraBon, contact with criminal jusBce system)

Key Take Home Points

2. Three key features of our culture magnify the inuence of T&P
- Longevity
-
-

more Bme for cumulaBve consequences to build up

need to be more planful (e.g., reBrement) and disciplined

- Risk exposure and tempta5on: Lifestyle diseases

-
-
-

fast-food naBon
ready access to substances
easy to divorce

- Increased importance of psychiatric disorders

Key Take Home Points

2. Three key features of our culture magnify the inuence of T&P
- Longevity
-
-

more Bme for cumulaBve consequences to build up

need to be more planful (e.g., reBrement) and disciplined

- Risk exposure and tempta5on: Lifestyle diseases

-
-
-

fast-food naBon
ready access to substances
easy to divorce

- Increased importance of psychiatric disorders

Key Take Home Points

3. The inuence of childhood C/SC on adult outcomes is parBally
explained by teen snares (smoking, drop out, parenthood)


Ensnared as Teens
Poor Adult Outcomes
Kids with Low C/SC

BUT, much of the associa5on is not explained by these
adolescent symptoms, highligh5ng the importance of
intervening early and targe5ng the root cause, low C/SC

We will revisit this issue in the Lecture on Interven5ons

Key Take Home Points

3. The inuence of childhood C/SC on adult outcomes is parBally
explained by teen snares (smoking, drop out, parenthood)


Ensnared as Teens
Poor Adult Outcomes
Kids with Low C/SC

BUT, much of the associa5on is not explained by these
adolescent symptoms, highligh5ng the importance of
intervening early and targe5ng the root cause, low C/SC

We will revisit this issue in the lecture on Interven5ons

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons

This is just to provide some examples of

what they will look like starDng next week

Please do not complete this assignment

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons

1. The MoO PNAS study and other research has
sparked some remarkable partnerships between
psychological scienBsts, public policy makers,
and non-prot groups, such as the Sesame Street
Workshop. A central goal of these partnerships is
prevenBonearly intervenBons aimed at
enhancing C/SC.
What do you think? What are some pros and cons of
trying to modify childhood self-control? (e.g., What kinds
of assump5ons and cost/benet analyses underlie such
eorts? How might we think about this from the
perspec5ve of sensi5vity, specicity, or eect sizes?)
hOps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PnbKL3wuH4

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons

1. The MoO PNAS study and other research has
sparked some remarkable partnerships between
psychological scienBsts, public policy makers,
and non-prot groups, such as the Sesame Street
Workshop. A central goal of these partnerships is
prevenBonearly intervenBons aimed at
enhancing C/SC.
What do you think? What are some pros and cons of
trying to modify childhood self-control? (e.g., What kinds
of assump5ons and cost/benet analyses underlie such
eorts? How might we think about this from the
perspec5ve of sensi5vity, specicity, or eect sizes?)

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons

2. Constraint/ConscienBousness/Self-control (C/SC)
is just one dimension of T&P. As we will discuss next
Bme, Extraversion/PosiBve EmoBonality (E/PE) and
NeuroBcism/NegaBve EmoBonality are the other
components of the Big 3 and each of these broad-band
factors is comprised of narrower facets (e.g., dominance,
fear, anger, sociality) that may resonate more closely
with your interests.
What do you think? Briey discuss the merits of
intervenBons for another dimension or facet of T&P. If
you like, you can focus on clinical intervenBons,
educaBonal intervenBons, or cogniBve
remediaBon (computerized/game-based skill training).

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons

2. Constraint/ConscienBousness/Self-control (C/SC)
is just one dimension of T&P. As we will discuss next
Bme, Extraversion/PosiBve EmoBonality (E/PE) and
NeuroBcism/NegaBve EmoBonality are the other
components of the Big 3 and each of these broad-band
factors is comprised of narrower facets (e.g., dominance,
fear, anger, sociality) that may resonate more closely
with your interests.
What do you think? Briey discuss the merits of
intervenBons for another dimension or facet of T&P. If
you like, you can focus on clinical intervenBons,
educaBonal intervenBons, or cogniBve
remediaBon (computerized/game-based skill training).

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons

PNAS 2015

3. Personality and privacy.

In a recent high-prole report, invesBgators compare[d] the accuracy of
human and computer-based personality judgments, using a sample of 86,220
volunteers who completed a 100-item personality quesBonnaire[They
showed]that computer predicBons based on a generic digital footprint
(Facebook Likes) are more accuratethan those made by the parBcipants
Facebook friends[and] computer personality judgments [beOer predict
important]life outcomes such as substance use, poliBcal atudes, and
physical health [compared to friend reports][in some cases] they even
outperform [self-report]Computers outpacing humans in personality
judgment presents signicant opportuniBes and challenges in the areas of
psychological assessment, [medicine], markeBng, and privacy.

What do you think? What are the posiBve and negaBve implicaBons of
automated personality assessments based on generic on-line informaBon
(tracking cookies, likes, FB posts, etc.)? Assuming it works as adverBsed, what
new vistas and opportuniBes would this aord?

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons

PNAS 2015

3. Personality and privacy.

In a recent high-prole report, invesBgators compare[d] the accuracy of
human and computer-based personality judgments, using a sample of 86,220
volunteers who completed a 100-item personality quesBonnaire[They
showed]that computer predicBons based on a generic digital footprint
(Facebook Likes) are more accuratethan those made by the parBcipants
Facebook friends[and] computer personality judgments [beOer predict
important]life outcomes such as substance use, poliBcal atudes, and
physical health [compared to friend reports][in some cases] they even
outperform [self-report]Computers outpacing humans in personality
judgment presents signicant opportuniBes and challenges in the areas of
psychological assessment, [medicine], markeBng, and privacy.

What do you think? What are the posiBve and negaBve implicaBons of
automated personality assessments based on generic on-line informaBon
(tracking cookies, likes, FB posts, etc.)? Assuming it works as adverBsed, what
new vistas and opportuniBes would this aord?

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons

PNAS 2015

3. Personality and privacy.

In a recent high-prole report, invesBgators compare[d] the accuracy of
human and computer-based personality judgments, using a sample of 86,220
volunteers who completed a 100-item personality quesBonnaire[They
showed]that computer predicBons based on a generic digital footprint
(Facebook Likes) are more accuratethan those made by the parBcipants
Facebook friends[and] computer personality judgments [beOer predict
important]life outcomes such as substance use, poliBcal atudes, and
physical health [compared to friend reports][in some cases] they even
outperform [self-report]Computers outpacing humans in personality
judgment presents signicant opportuniBes and challenges in the areas of
psychological assessment, [medicine], markeBng, and privacy.

What do you think? What are the posiBve and negaBve implicaBons of
automated personality assessments? Assuming it works as adverBsed, what
new opportuniBes would this technology aord?

Cri5cal Thinking Ques5ons

Length: 1 paragraph per quesBon (i.e., total of 2
separate paragraphs) for a total of ~0.5 1 page (12
pt font; single-spaced)

Due: by 9:00am next Thursday

Submit: Assignment tab in Canvas

Grading: 1 (full credit), 12 (half-credit), 0 (no
credit). At the end of the semester, your two lowest
response grades will be dropped.

The End

Things to Consider Revising for Future

Semesters

Denitely Add this next Bme

Denitely Add this next Bme

As in Study 1, our analyses showed that from adolescence

to midlife, parBcipants with low self-control experienced
1.6 Bmes as many months of unemployment as those with
high self-control. parBcipants in the low-self-control group
were disproporBonately more likely to become unemployed
aer the onset of the recession.

Denitely Add this next Bme

Denitely Add this next Bme

 used data from a 75-year longitudinal study (the Kelly/Connolly

Longitudinal Study on Personality and Aging). In that study, 600
parBcipants were observed beginning in 1935 through 1938, when
they were in their mid-20s, and conBnuing through 2013. Male
parBcipants seen by their friends as more conscienBous and open
lived longer, whereas friend-rated emoBonal stability and
agreeableness were protecBve for women. Friends raBngs were
beOer predictors of longevity than were self-reports of personality, in
part because friends raBngs could be aggregated to provide a more
reliable assessment.

Male parBcipants seen by their friends as more conscienBous
(Fig. 1) and open tended to live longer: A 1-SD
increase in conscienBousness was associated with a 29%
decrease in mortality risk

itely Add this next Bme

Denitely Add this next Bme

A sample (N = 6,904) of parBcipants from the Health and
ReBrement Study, a longitudinal study of older adults, completed
personality measures and reported on current health condiBons.
Four years later, parBcipants were followed up to see if they
developed a new disease.
A one unit (SD) increase in ConscienBousness decreases the odds of
a stroke diagnosis by 37%, high blood pressure diagnosis by 27%,
diabetes by 20%, and arthriBs by 23%
A one unit (SD) increase in NeuroBcism increased the odds of a
heart condiBon diagnosis by 24%, lung disease diagnosis by 29%,
high blood pressure by 37%, and arthriBs by 25%

For Future GRAD seminars add the

small eects are important slides
back in but leave out for ugrad
class

Caveats

(Skip this if low on Dme)

Composite Childhood Self-Control:

Tiny Eects

MoO PNAS 2011

Tiny Eects Can Be

PracDcally Important

Meyer et al Amer Psychol 2001

Tiny Eects Can Be

PracDcally Important and Cost EecDve




Dollars & Cents analysis
Return on investment
Small eects are important if intervenBon is cheap (aspirin for heart disease), or if
downstream consequences of inacBon are expensive (prison)

E.g., Ken Dodges Fast Track intervenBon
$40k annually per kid for a few years of childhood
$47k for one year of incarceraBon, as well as loss of producBvity etc.
Financial break point might be as small as a 3% reducBon in chronic crime

Kendler & gardner ajp 1014

Extra / Unused Slides

Some subjects showed changes in self-control,

enabling authors to test whether increases are
associated with enhanced health, wealth, and public
safety
Increased C/SC

Decreased C/SC

Provides addiBonal evidence that

intervenBons targeBng childhood C/SC
are likely to be benecial

Future Challenges
Understand at a more granular level the proximal mechanisms media5ng personality-outcome
rela5onsall of these involve the brain as a key intermediary

Some Pathways--

1) Risk exposure
T&P may alters exposure to risk (e.g., stress, dangerous acBviBes) via instrumental behaviors

2) Reac5vity & Regula5on
T&P may shape reac5ons to others behavior specically and emo5onal perturba5on more
generally
e.g., escalate negaBve aect during conict
E.g., dierences in emoBonal reacBvity or regulaBon
Likely reect dierences in both emoBon and cogniBon (e.g., cogniBve control; Shackman
et al Nat Rev Neurosci 2011)

3) Shared genes or direct pathogenesis
e.g., higher basal cor5sol, altered HPA ac5vity, altered immune func5on
4) Evoca5ve Eects
T&P may evoke behaviors from others (spouse, parent)

Roberts et al. Amer Psychol 2007; Lahey Amer Psychol 2009

Stability and IntervenDon

Wortman et al Psychol and Aging 2012

Aim 1
Test: Does childhood self-control predict later
health, wealth, and crime similarly at all points
along the self-control gradient?
E.g., Composite Physical Health Scale
Metabolic abnormaliBes (including overweight),
airow limitaBon, periodontal disease, STD, and C-
reacBve protein (blood protein marker of
inammaBon)

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 1
Impact: If yes, intervenBons that achieve even
small improvements individuals could shi the
enBre distribuBon of outcomes in a salutary
direcBon

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 2
Test: Some Ss evinced increased self-control,
enabling authors to test whether this is
associated with beOer health, wealth, and
public safety
Impact: CorrelaBve evidence that
intervenBons would be benecial

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 3
Test: Assessed teen smoking, drop out, teen
parenBng, enabling authors to test whether
these youthful mistakes close doors of
opportunity and ensnare vicBms in
deleterious lifestyles (snowball/cascade)
Impact: CorrelaBve evidence that early
intervenBons would be especially helpful

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 4
Assessed self-control @ 3 yrs, enabling
authors to test whether EARLY dierences
predict ADULT outcomes
Impact: CorrelaBve evidence suggesBng the
need for early intervenBon

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 5
Controlling for dierences in IQ and SES,
which are relaBvely cheap and easy to
measure
Dunedin: Self-control associated with
increased SES (R2 = 6%) and IQ (R2 = 19%)
Impact: Allow authors to reject the possibility
that self-control is just a proxy for IQ/SES

MoO PNAS 2011

Aim 6: Sibs Sub-Study

Examine discordant self-control while controlling for

shared childhood environment
E.g., Sister 1 = Higher; Sister 2 = Lower
But parents, family SES, etc. is approximately matched
Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study

naBonally representaBve birth cohort of 2,232 BriBsh kids

born in 1994-1995 (23).

Impact: Stronger evidence for the specicity of self-

control eects

MoO PNAS 2011

Results

MoO PNAS 2011

Risk vs. Odds Ra5o

Cancer

Smoking

e.g., 20% of Smokers and 1% of Non-Smokers develop cancer

Risk Ra5o = 0.20/0.01 = 20

Odds are (20/80 = 0.25 and 1/99 = .0101), so Odds Ra5o = .25/.0101 = 24.75

Lewis R. Goldberg (Oregon)

- closely associated with the Big Five taxonomy of
personality (he coined the term "Big Five")
- creator of the
InternaBonal Personality Item Pool (IPIP), a
website that provides public-domain personality
measures (open source personality
assessment)

B&S: T&P-Outcome Models

Researchers began to proposed some models for how T&P might inuence health outcomes

1) Direct pathogenesis or biological mechanisms that directly physically promote disease
E.g., natural killer cell acBvity or corBsol

2) Health-promoBng or health-damaging behaviors

3) ReacBons to illness
e.g., coping with illness, adherence to treatment
E.g., individuals with low conscienBousness/self-control (C/SC) may have trouble
keeping appointments with health care professionals or taking their meds
This pathways may dier across facets of T&P (e.g., conscien5ousness vs. neuro5cism)

Roberts et al. Amer Psychol 2007

hOps://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=9PnbKL3wuH4
Alex intervenBon would be a good take-home quesBon; and this would be a fun way to
start class

Death (Longevity)

Death (Longevity)

5,424 subjects from the BriBsh Health and Lifestyle Survey

Mortality at the 21 year assessment

An increase of 1 SD in NeuroBcism was associated with a
9% greater risk of dying (all causes) and a 12% increase in death
from cardiovascular disease

Death (Longevity)

5,424 subjects from the BriBsh Health and Lifestyle Survey

Mortality at the 21 year assessment

An increase of 1 SD in NeuroBcism was associated with a
9% greater risk of dying (all causes) and a 12% increase in death
from cardiovascular disease