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11
Overview
14
Conclusions
Buildings
Offices
p
Pipelines
Residential structures
Hydraulic
y
structures
Hospitals
Bridges
g
.....
y Natural causes
(wind,
hurricanes,
floods,
tornados, major storms, snow,
earthquakes, wave)
C
Causes
off Uncertainties
U
t i ti
in the building process
y Man-made causes
earthquake,
th k ice
i
y Man-made causes collisions (vehicle, vessel), fire, poor maintenance, human
Consequences of Uncertainties
y Deterministic analysis and design is insufficient
y Probability of failure is never zero
y Design codes must include a rational safety reserve (too safe too costly,
g = R Q
y Calculate the risk (probability of failure, PF,
PF = Prob (g < 0)
Fundamental Case
Safety Margin, g = R Q
what is the probability g < 0?
Probability Density Function (PDF)
Fundamental case
The limit state function, g = R - Q, the probability of failure, PF, can be derived
considering the PDFs of R and Q
Fundamental case
The
then
Th structure fails
f il when
h the
h load
l d exceeds
d the
h resistance,
i
h the
h probability
b bili off
failure is equal to the probability of Q>R, the following equations result
Pf =
P (R = r
Q > ri ) =
(1 F (r )) f (r )dr = 1 F (r ) f (r )dr
= P (Q = q R < q ) = P (R < Q |Q = q )P (Q = q )
Pf =
Pf
P (Q > R |R = r )P (R = r )
Pf =
F (q ) f
R
(qi )dqi
Fundamental case
y Space of State Variables
Fundamental case
y Space of State Variables
Reliability Index,
Mean (R(R-Q)
Figure: PDFs of load, resistance and safety margin
Reliability Index,
For a linear limit state function, g = R Q = 0, and R and Q are both normal
random variables
(
=
Q )
R2 + Q2
mR = mean resistance
mQ = mean load
sR = standard deviation of resistance
sQ = standard deviation of load
Reliability Index,
beta = - F-1(PF)
Probability of failure, PF
PF = F ((--beta)
PF
beta
10-1
1.28
10-2
2.33
10-3
3.09
10-4
3.71
10-5
4.26
10-6
4.75
10-7
5.19
10-8
5.62
10-9
5.99
Typical values of
y Structural components (beams, slabs, columns), beta = 3-4
y Connections:
y Welded, beta = 3-4
y Bolted, beta = 5-7
iterations
with
i h known
k
mean values
l
andd standard
d d deviations
d i i
n
a 0 + ai X
i =1
2
(
a
)
i X
i =1
g (X1, , Xn)
y Xi = uncorrelated random variables, with unknown types of distribution, but with
*
n
) + (X
i =1
*
i
g
X i
a 0 + ai X
i =1
(a
i =1
where
g
ai =
X i
Xi
)2
generator
y For each set of generated values of (X1, , Xn) calculate value of g (X1, ,
PF = NEG/N
y Plot the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of g on the normal
probability paper and either read the resulting value pf PF and b directly
from the graph, or extrapolate the lower tail of CDF, and read from the
graph.
Load and resistance parameters are random variables, therefore, reliability can
serve as an efficient measure of structural performance
Reliability index is usually used in practice
Reliability methods are available for the analysis of components and complex
systems: FORM, SORM, Monte Carlo