From: MarblePort Polling, Ethan Zorfas/The Hayride, Scott McKay

To: Interested Parties

Date: May 20, 2015
Re: Louisiana Statewide Survey May 18th-19th, 2015
Race for Governor
Similar to other recent surveys, Senator David Vitter has opened his lead (Vitter
37.6%/Edwards 27.1%/Dardenne 14.9%/Angelle 5.8%/undecided 14.6%). Vitter
now leads Edwards by 10 points and his closest Republican challenger by 23 points.
As with previous surveys conducted by Marbleport, Vitters strength is among
Republican voters where he leads his nearest opponent by 37 points (Vitter
56.2%/ Dardenne 18.8%/Angelle 7.2%/ Edwards 5.4%/undecided 12.4%).
Among female voters, Vitter holds a narrow 3 point lead to Edwards (Vitter
32.6%/Edwards 29.8%/Dardenne 14.8%/Angelle 5%/undecided 17.9%).
And as we have seen in previous surveys, Vitter is running strong in the New Orleans
media market and north Louisiana.
As expected, Edwards holds a substantial lead among African-American voters (54%)
and polls well in Congressional District 2 (41.5%).
Dardenne remains in the mid-teens (14.9%) and polls best among his Baton Rouge
base (Dardenne 28.2%/ Edwards 29.8% /Vitter 22.3%/Angelle 4.8%/undecided
14.9%).

If the elections were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were David Vitter,
Republican, John Bel Edwards, Democrat Jay Dardenne, Republican and Scott Angelle,
Republican?

TRENDLINE
37.6%
33.5%

31.3%
27.1%

14.6%
14.0%

14.9% 14.0%
5.8%

SCOTT
ANGELLE

7.2%

JAY
DARDENNE

JOHN BEL
EDWARDS
05/15

DAVID VITTER

UNDECIDED

03/15

The Honore Factor

Because of the recent Honore speculation, a second 2015 Governors ballot question
was added to the May survey which included Russel Honore. Currently, Honore is
polling 7.4% (Vitter 34.1%/Edwards 26.4%/Dardenne 14.9%/ Honore 7.4%/
Angelle 5.7%/undecided 12.9%).
Honore makes a Vitter vs. Edwards runoff much more likely. Honore shrinks the
percent of undecided from 14.6% on the initial ballot to 12.9% with Honore on the
ballot and he polls well among independents (18.9%) and particularly well among
white independent women (21.9%). As a result, his entrance into the race produces a
stabilizing effect by claiming a constituency that has historically been considered
swing voters. By taking swing voters off the table, ballot growth among the remaining
candidates becomes much more difficult. Basically, Honore condenses the political
landscape and paves the way for a Vitter v. Edwards run-off.

If the elections were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were David Vitter,
Republican, John Bel Edwards, Democrat, Jay Dardenne, Republican, Scott Angelle, Republican
and Russel Honore, independent?

52%
42%
34%
26%

13%

13%

7% 6%

TOTAL

17% 15%

13%

6% 7%

12%

15%
10%
7%
3%

WHITE

BLACK

DAVID VITTER, REPUBLICAN

JOHN BEL EDWARDS, DEMOCRAT JAY DARDENNE, REPUBLICAN

RUSSEL HONORE, INDEPENDENT

SCOTT ANGELLE, REPUBLICAN

UNDECIDED