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Netanyahu, Obama and the Geopolitics of Speeches

GeopoliticalWeekly MARCH3,2015|08:49GMT Print TextSize
ByGeorgeFriedman
IsraeliPrimeMinisterBenjamin
NetanyahuisvisitingtheUnited
Statesthisweektospeakto
CongressonMarch3.The
Obamaadministrationisupset
thatSpeakeroftheHouseJohn
BoehnerinvitedNetanyahu
withoutconsultingwiththe
WhiteHouseandcharged
Boehnerwithpolitical
grandstanding.Netanyahusaid
hewascomingtowarnthe
UnitedStatesofthethreatof
Iran.IsraelicriticsofNetanyahu
chargedthatthiswasaplayfor
publicapprovaltoimprovehis
positioninIsrael'sgeneral
Stratfor
electionnextyear.Boehner
deniedanypoliticalintent
beyondgettingtohearNetanyahu'sviews.TheObamaadministrationclaimedthatthespeechthreatens
thefabricofU.S.Israelirelations.
Letusbeginwiththeobvious.First,thisisaspeech,anditisunlikelythatNetanyahucouldsayanything
newonthesubjectofIran,giventhatheneverstopstalkingaboutit.Second,everyoneinvolvedis
grandstanding.Theyarepoliticians,andthat'swhattheydo.Third,theideathatU.S.Israelirelationscan
beshreddedbyagrandstandingspeechispreposterous.Ifthat'sallittakes,relationsarealready
shredded.
Speechesaside,thereisnoquestionthatU.S.Israelirelationshavebeenchangingsubstantiallysincethe
endoftheColdWar,andthatchange,arrestedforawhileafter9/11,hascreateddistanceandtension
betweenthecountries.Netanyahu'sspeechismerelyasymptomoftheunderlyingreality.Thereare
theatrics,therearepersonalanimosities,butpresidentsandprimeministerscomeandgo.Whatis
importantaretheintereststhatbindorseparatenations,andtheinterestsofIsraelandtheUnitedStates
havetosomeextentdiverged.Itisthedivergenceofinterestswemustfocuson,particularlybecause
thereisagreatdealofmythologyaroundtheU.S.Israelirelationshipcreatedbyadvocatesofaclose
relationship,opponentsoftherelationship,andforeignenemiesofoneorbothcountries.

Building the U.S.-Israeli Relationship

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ItisimportanttobeginbyunderstandingthattheUnitedStatesandIsraeldidnotalwayshaveaclose
relationship.WhiletheUnitedStatesrecognizedIsraelfromthebeginning,itsrelationshipwascooluntil
aftertheSixDayWarin1967.WhenIsrael,alongwithBritainandFrance,invadedEgyptin1956,the
UnitedStatesdemandedIsrael'swithdrawalfromSinaiandGaza,andtheIsraeliscomplied.TheUnited
StatesprovidednoaidforIsraelexceptforfoodaidgiventhroughaU.N.programthatservedmany
nations.TheUnitedStateswasnothostiletoIsrael,nordiditregarditsrelationshipascrucial.
Thisbegantochangebeforethe1967conflict,afterproSovietcoupsinSyriaandIraqbyBaathistparties.
Respondingtothisthreat,theUnitedStatescreatedabeltofsurfacetoairmissilesstretchingfromSaudi
ArabiatoJordanandIsraelin1965.ThiswasthefirstmilitaryaidgiventoIsrael,anditwasintendedtobe
partofasystemtoblockSovietpower.Until1967,Israel'sweaponscameprimarilyfromFrance.Again,
theUnitedStateshadnoobjectiontothisrelationship,norwasitacriticalissuetoWashington.
TheSixDayWarchangedthis.Aftertheconflict,theFrench,wantingtoimproverelationswiththeArabs,
cutoffweaponssalestoIsrael.TheUnitedStatessawEgyptbecomeaSovietnavalandairbase,along
withSyria.ThisthreatenedtheU.S.SixthFleetandotherinterestsintheeasternMediterranean.In
particular,theUnitedStateswasconcernedaboutTurkeybecausetheBosporusinSoviethandswould
openthedoortoasignificantSovietchallengeintheMediterraneanandSouthernEurope.Turkeywas
nowthreatenednotonlyfromthenorthbutalsofromthesouthbySyriaandIraq.TheIranians,thenU.S.
allies,forcedtheIraqistofaceeastratherthannorth.TheIsraelisforcedtheSyrianstofocussouth.Once
theFrenchpulledoutoftheirrelationshipwithIsraelandtheSovietsconsolidatedtheirpositionsinEgypt
andSyriainthewakeoftheSixDayWar,theUnitedStateswasforcedintoadifferentrelationshipwith
Israel.
Ithasbeensaidthatthe1967warandlaterU.S.supportforIsraeltriggeredArabantiAmericanism.It
undoubtedlydeepenedantiAmericansentimentamongtheArabs,butitwasnotthetrigger.Egypt
becameproSovietin1956despitetheU.S.interventionagainstIsrael,whileSyriaandIraqbecamepro
SovietbeforetheUnitedStatesbegansendingmilitaryaidtoIsrael.Butafter1967,theUnitedStates
lockedintoastrategicrelationshipwithIsraelandbecameitsprimarysourceofmilitaryassistance.This
supportsurgedduringthe1973ArabIsraeliWar,withU.S.assistancerisingfromroughly5percentof
Israeligrossdomesticproducttomorethan20percentayearlater.
TheUnitedStateswasstrategicallydependentonIsraeltomaintainabalanceofpowerintheeastern
Mediterranean.Butevenduringthisperiod,theUnitedStateshadcompetingstrategicinterests.For
example,aspartofencouragingastrategicreversalintotheU.S.campafterthe1973war,theUnited
StatesnegotiatedanIsraeliwithdrawalfromSinaithattheIsraeliswereextremelyreluctanttodobutcould
notavoidunderU.S.pressure.Similarly,U.S.PresidentRonaldReaganopposedanIsraeliinvasionof
LebanonthatreachedBeirut,andtheinitialU.S.interventioninLebanonwasnotagainstArabelements
butintendedtoblockIsrael.TherewasastrategicdependenceonIsrael,butitwasneverasimple
relationship.
TheIsraelis'nationalsecurityrequirementshavealwaysoutstrippedtheirresources.Theyhadtohavean
outsidepatron.FirstitwastheSovietsviaCzechoslovakia,thenFrance,thentheUnitedStates.They
couldnotaffordtoalienatetheUnitedStatestheessentialfoundationoftheirnationalsecuritybut
neithercouldtheysimplycomplywithAmericanwishes.FortheUnitedStates,Israelwasanimportant
asset.Itwasfarfromtheonlyimportantasset.TheUnitedStateshadtoreconcileitssupportofIsraelwith
itssupportofSaudiArabia,asanexample.IsraelandtheSaudiswerepartofanantiSovietcoalition,but
theyhadcompetinginterests,shownwhentheUnitedStatessoldairbornewarningandcontrolsystemsto
theSaudis.TheIsraelisbothneededtheUnitedStatesandchafedunderthelimitationsWashington
placedonthem.

Post-Soviet Relations
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ThecollapseoftheSovietUniondestroyedthestrategicfoundationfortheU.S.Israelirelationship.There
wasnopressingreasontoendit,butitbegantoevolveanddiverge.ThefalloftheSovietUnionleftSyria
andIraqwithoutapatron.Egypt'sU.S.equippedarmy,separatedfromIsraelbyademilitarizedSinaiand
tokenAmericanpeacekeepers,posednothreat.JordanwasakeyallyofIsrael.TheUnitedStatesbegan
seeingtheMediterraneanandMiddleEastintotallydifferentways.Israel,forthefirsttimesinceits
founding,didn'tfaceanydirectthreatofattack.Inaddition,Israel'seconomysurged,andU.S.aid,
althoughitremainedsteady,becamefarlessimportanttoIsraelthanitwas.In2012,U.S.assistance($2.9
billion)accountedforjustmorethan1percentofIsrael'sGDP.
Bothcountrieshadmoreroomtomaneuverthanthey'dhadpreviously.Theywerenolongerlockedintoa
relationshipwitheachother,andtheirrelationshipcontinuedasmuchoutofhabitasoutofinterest.The
UnitedStateshadnointerestinIsraelcreatingsettlementsintheWestBank,butitwasn'tinterested
enoughinstoppingthemtoriskrupturingtherelationship.TheIsraeliswerenolongersodependenton
theUnitedStatesthattheycouldn'triskitsdisapproval.
TheUnitedStatesandIsraeldrewtogetherinitiallyafter9/11.FromtheIsraeliperspective,theattacks
provedthattheUnitedStatesandIsraelhadacommoninterestagainsttheIslamicworld.TheU.S.
responseevolvedintoamuchmorecomplexform,particularlyasitbecameapparentthatU.S.forcesin
AfghanistanandIraqwerenotgoingtopacifyeithercountry.TheUnitedStatesneededastrategythat
wouldpreventjihadistattacksonthehomeland,andthatmeantintelligencecooperationnotonlywiththe
IsraelisbutalsowithIslamiccountrieshostiletoIsrael.Thiswastheoldproblem.IsraelwantedtheUnited
StatesfocusedonIsraelasitsmainpartner,buttheUnitedStateshadmuchwiderandmorecomplex
relationstodealwithintheregionthatrequiredamorenuancedapproach.
ThisistherootofthedivergenceonIran.FromIsrael'spointofview,theIraniansposeaninherentthreat
regardlessofhowfaralongtheyareorarenotwiththeirnuclearprogram.IsraelwantstheUnited
StatesalignedagainstIran.Now,howcloseTehranistoanuclearweaponisanimportantquestion,butto
Israel,howeversmallthenuclearrisk,itcannotbetoleratedbecauseIran'sideologymakesitanexistential
threat.

The Iran Problem

FromtheAmericanperspective,themainquestionaboutIranis,assumingitisathreat,canitbe
destroyedmilitarily?TheIraniansarenotfools.TheyobservedtheeasewithwhichtheIsraelisdestroyed
theIraqinuclearreactorin1981.Theyburiedtheirsdeepunderground.Itisthereforenotclear,regardless
ofhowfaralongitisorwhatitspurposeis,thattheUnitedStatescoulddestroyIran'snuclearprogram
fromtheair.Itwouldrequire,attheveryleast,specialoperationsontheground,andfailingthat,military
actionbeyondU.S.capabilities.Asidefromtheuseofnuclearweapons,itisunclearthatanattackon
multiplehardenedsiteswouldwork.
TheIsraelisarequiteawareofthesedifficulties.Haditbeenpossibletoattack,andhadtheIsraelis
believedwhattheyweresaying,theIsraeliswouldhaveattacked.Thedistancesaregreat,butthereare
indicationsthatcountriesclosertoIranandalsointerestedindestroyingIran'snuclearprogramwould
haveallowedtheuseoftheirterritories.YettheIsraelisdidnotattack.
TheAmericanpositionisthat,lackingaviablemilitaryoptionanduncertainastothestatusofIran's
program,theonlyoptionistoinduceIrantocurtailtheprogram.Simplymaintainingpermanentsanctions
doesnotendwhateverprogramthereis.OnlyanagreementwithIrantradingtheprogramforanendof
sanctionswouldwork.FromtheAmericanpointofview,thelackofamilitaryoptionrequiresanegotiation.
TheIsraelipositionisthatIrancannotbetrusted.TheAmericanpositionisthatinthatcase,thereareno
options.
Behindthisisamuchdeeperissue.IsraelofcourseunderstandstheAmericanargument.Whatreally
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frightenstheIsraelisisanemergingAmericanstrategy.HavingfailedtopacifyAfghanistanorIraq,the
UnitedStateshascometotheconclusionthatwarsofoccupationarebeyondAmericancapacity.Itis
preparedtouseairpowerandverylimitedgroundforcesinIraq,forexample.However,theUnitedStates
doesnotseeitselfashavingtheoptionofbringingdecisiveforcetobear.

An Intricate U.S. Strategy

Therefore,theUnitedStateshasadoublestrategyemerging.Thefirstlayeristokeepitsdistancefrom
majorflareupsintheregion,providingsupportbutmakingclearitwillnotbetheonetotakeprimary
responsibility.Asthesituationonthegrounddeteriorates,theUnitedStatesexpectstheseconflictsto
eventuallycompelregionalpowerstotakeresponsibility.InthecaseofSyriaandIraq,forexample,the
chaosisontheborderofTurkey.LetTurkeylivewithit,orletTurkeysenditsowntroopsin.Ifthat
happens,theUnitedStateswilluselimitedforcetosupportthem.Asimilardynamicisplayingoutwith
JordanandtheGulfCooperationCouncilstatesasSaudiArabiatriestoassumeresponsibilityforSunni
ArabinterestsinthefaceofaU.SIranianentente.Importantly,thisrapprochementwithIranisalready
happeningagainsttheIslamicState,whichisanenemyofboththeUnitedStatesandIran.Iamnotsure
wewouldcallwhatishappeningcollaboration,butthereiscertainlyparallelplaybetweenIranandthe
UnitedStates.
Thesecondlayerofthisstrategyiscreatingabalanceofpower.TheUnitedStateswantsregionalpowers
todealwithissuesthatthreatentheirinterestsmorethanAmericaninterests.Atthesametime,theUnited
Statesdoesnotwantanyonecountrytodominatetheregion.Therefore,itisintheAmericaninterestto
havemultiplepowersbalancingeachother.Therearefoursuchpowers:Turkey,Iran,SaudiArabiaand
Israel.Somecollaborate,somearehostile,andsomeshiftovertime.TheUnitedStateswantstogetridof
Iran'sweapons,butitdoesnotwanttoshatterthecountry.Itispartofapatternofregionalresponsibility
andbalance.
ThisistheheartofIsrael'sproblem.IthasalwaysbeenapawninU.S.strategy,butavitalpawn.Inthis
emergingstrategy,withmultipleplayersbalancingeachotherandtheUnitedStatestakingtheminimum
possibleactiontomaintaintheequilibrium,Israelfindsitselfinacomplexrelationshipwiththreecountries
thatitcannotbesureofmanagingbyitself.ByincludingIraninthismix,theUnitedStatesincludeswhat
IsraelregardsasanunpredictableelementnotsolelybecauseofthenuclearissuebutbecauseIran's
influencestretchestoSyriaandLebanonandimposescostsandthreatsIsraelwantstoavoid.
ThishasnothingtodowiththepersonalitiesofBarackObamaandBenjaminNetanyahu.TheUnited
Stateshasshownitcannotpacifycountrieswithavailableforces.Thedefinitionofinsanityisdoingthe
samethingrepeatedlyandexpectingadifferentoutcome.IftheUnitedStatesisnotinvolvedonthe
groundinaconflict,thenitbecomesaproblemforregionalpowerstohandle.Iftheregionalpowerstake
therolestheymust,theyshouldbalanceagainsteachotherwithoutasingleregionalhegemonemerging.
IsraeldoesnotwanttobeconsideredbytheUnitedStatesasonepoweramongmany.Itisfocusedonthe
issueofanuclearIran,butitknowsthatthereisnocertaintythatIran'snuclearfacilitiescanbedestroyed
orthatsanctionswillcausetheIranianstoabandonthenuclearprogram.WhatIsraelfearsisanentente
betweentheUnitedStatesandIranandasystemofrelationsinwhichU.S.supportwillnotbeautomatic.
Soaspeechwillbemade.ObamaandNetanyahuaresupposedtodislikeeachother.Politiciansaregoing
tobeelectedandjockeyforpower.Allofthisistrue,andnoneofitmatters.Whatdoesmatteristhatthe
UnitedStates,regardlessofwhoispresident,hastodevelopanewstrategyintheregion.Thisistheonly
optionotherthantryingtooccupySyriaandIraq.Israel,regardlessofwhoisprimeminister,doesnotwant
tobeleftaspartofthissystemwhiletheUnitedStatesmaintainstieswithalltheotherplayersalongwith
Israel.Israeldoesn'thavetheweighttoblockthisstrategy,andtheUnitedStateshasnoalternativebutto
pursueit.
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Thisisn'taboutNetanyahuandObama,andbothknowit.Itisaboutthereconfigurationofaregionthe
UnitedStatescannotsubdueandcannotleave.Itistheessenceofgreatpowerstrategy:creatinga
balanceofpowerinwhichthebalancersaretrappedintoplayingaroletheydon'twant.Itisnotaperfect
strategy,butitistheonlyonetheUnitedStateshas.Israelisnotaloneinnotwantingthis.Turkey,Iran
andSaudiArabiadon'twantit,either.Butgeopoliticsisindifferenttowishes.Itunderstandsonly
imperativesandconstraints.

Sendusyourthoughtsonthisreport.
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OLDER

ARTICLE AUTHOR

George Friedman
GeorgeFriedmanistheChairmanofStratfor,acompanyhefoundedin1996thatisnowaleaderinthe
fieldofglobalintelligence.FriedmanguidesStratfor'sstrategicvisionandoverseesthedevelopmentand
trainingofthecompany'sintelligenceunit.
HisbookFlashpoints:TheEmergingCrisisinEuropewasreleasedonJan.27.

View Full Biography

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