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May 05, 2015

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Stock Update >> V-Guard Industries
Stock Update >> Firstsource Solutions

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investors eye

stock update

V-Guard Industries

Reco: Hold

Stock Update

Subdued Q4 on weak demand, PT revised down to Rs1,025

Key points

Company details
Price target:

Rs1,025

Market cap:

Rs2,943 cr

52 week high/low:

CMP: Rs982

Rs1,198/500

NSE volume:
(no. of shares)

40,132

BSE code:

532953

NSE code:

VGUARD

Sharekhan code:

VGUARD

Free float:
(no. of shares)

1.0 cr

Shareholding pattern

Single-digit revenue growth led to flat earnings in Q4: V-Guard Industries

(V-Guard) reported a flat earnings growth YoY in Q4FY2015, owing to mid-single
digit revenue growth, lower margin and higher tax rate. The revenues of wire
segment, the largest revenue contributor (around 34%), declined due to lower
realisation as a drop in the copper prices was passed on to consumer. Pumps and
UPS sales remained weak while stabiliser, fan and water heater managed to grow
over the last year. The weak revenue traction weighed on margin as the OPM
contracted by 40BPS YoY to 8% in Q4FY2015. Further, with higher effective tax rate
(after 5 years of operations its tax-free plants have now come partly under the tax
net), the companys PAT declined by 2% to Rs20 crore, lower than our estimate.
Better working capital management helps healthy cash flow: Led by a weak
demand especially for construction related products, V-Guards revenues stepped
down to lower growth rate and affected margins. However, on the positive side,
the company managed to generate healthy cash flow from operations (around Rs84
crore in FY2015 and Rs40 crore in Q4FY2015) with prudent working capital
management. Moreover, it repaid around Rs32 crore of debt during FY2015. The
long-term plan to scale-up its non-south business is on track which is also contributing
around 33% of the total revenues currently.
Demand outlook remains weak; price target revised down to Rs1,025: Given the
slower-than-expected recovery in the economy in FY2015, some of the infrastructure
related products showed weakness and are likely to remain tepid in our view for
some time. This would affect the revenues of V-Guard. The continued rising share
of non-south business (lower margin than south market) coupled with an overall
weak demand environment; we expect margins to remain subdued. Therefore, we
have revised down our earnings estimate by 8% and 10% for FY2016E and FY2017E
respectively. Consequently, we have cut our price target to Rs1,025 (based on 28x
FY2017E) but maintain our Hold rating on the stock, given the healthy balance
sheet and high return ratios.

Price chart

Results

Rs cr

Particulars

Price performance
(%)

1m

3m

6m 12m

Absolute

8.8

1.6

12.1 109.0

Relative 11.8
to Sensex

6.6

13.3

67.8

Operational income
Raw material cost
Employee expenses
Selling & Dist Exp
Other expenses
Operating profits
Other income
Interest
Depreciation
PBT
Tax
Adj PAT
Adj EPS
Margins (%)
OPM
NPM
Tax rate

Sharekhan

Q4FY15

Q4FY14

YoY %

Q3FY15

QoQ %

442
328
28
22
28
35
2
5
4
28
8
20
6.7

422
319
21
23
25
35
1
5
3
28
8
20
6.8

395
288
27
28
30
22
1
5
4
14
4
9
3.1

8.0
4.5
29

8.4
4.8
28

5
3
35
-3
16
0
18
-13
27
0
4
-2
-2
BPS
(40)
(30)
122

12
14
2
-21
-5
63
40
-13
4
108
87
117
117
BPS
251
221
(324)

May 05, 2015

5.5
2.3
32

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Valuations
Particulars

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

Net sales (Rs cr)

1,360

1,518

1,746

1,972

2,227

41.0

11.6

15.0

12.9

12.9

8.1

8.1

7.6

8.0

8.3
109.6

Y-o-Y growth %
Operating margin (%)
Net profit (Rs cr)

62.9

70.1

70.7

90.7

Adjusted EPS (Rs)

21.0

23.4

23.6

30.3

36.6

Y-o-Y growth %

23.8

11.5

0.8

28.3

20.8

PER (x)

46.8

42.0

41.6

32.4

26.9

P/B (x)

11.3

9.2

7.8

6.6

5.6

EV/EBIDTA (x)

27.2

23.9

21.8

18.3

15.6

RoCE (%)

27.8

27.6

28.6

31.1

31.8

RoNW (%)

26.7

24.2

20.3

22.1

22.5

RoIC (%)

28.5

28.2

28.8

31.4

32.6

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.7

Div yield (%)

Non-south market grew on expected lines, contributed

one-third of revenue
While the non-south market managed to grow at 19% YoY
on a low base, the revenues from the southern market
declined by 2% YoY during this quarter. With gradual stepup in non-south market, the non-south market contributed
around 33% of its total revenues in this quarter.
Gradually, the company is consciously reducing the
differential pricing of its products between south and nonsouth markets. After managing non-differential pricing
in wire segment across India, now V-Guard is aiming to
replicate the same in the electric water heater and
stabilizer segments, gradually in the next two years.
Nevertheless, a gap of around 2-3% remains at the gross
margin level between the south and non-south markets.

Mid-single digit revenue growth

Increasing share of non-south business

The net sales of V-Guard grew by 4.5% year on year (YoY)

to Rs442 crore in Q4FY2015 which was lower than our
estimate. Reflecting soft commodity (copper) prices, the
realisations of the wire segment declined in this quarter.
Hence, pushing down the revenues of the largest segment
(wire) by 4%. Further, due to local issues in some of the
key markets, the revenues of pumps segment declined
by 14%. The uninterruptible power supply (UPS) segment
sales remained subdued too. On the positive side,
stabiliser, fan and water heater segments recorded a
healthy revenue growth. Consequently, the total revenue
growth remained subdued at 4.5% YoY.

Revenue break-up
Particulars

(Rs cr)
Q4FY15

Q4FY14

YoY %

Q3FY15

QoQ %

Stabiliser

79.5

66.5

19.6

68.4

16.2

UPS(Std+Dig)

51.3

49.7

3.2

34.8

47.4

130.8

116.2

12.6

103.2

26.7

-14.0

37.3

Electronics segment
As a % of total

29.6

27.5

Pumps

61.9

72.0

152.3

158.4

-3.9

133.4

14.2

31.7

24.5

29.4

86.3

-63.3

Cables(Hw+LT)
Water heater(Electric+Solar)
Fan
Electrical and electro mechanical
As a % of total
Switch gears
Kitchen appliances
New products (previously others)
As a % of total
Total

26.1
66.0

49.4

39.0

26.7

22.8

116.7

295.3

293.9

0.5

279.8

5.54

66.9

69.6

6.2

5.1

70.8
21.6

NA

9.2

7.3

26.0

NA

15.4

12.4

24.2

12.3

3.5

2.9

441.5

422.5

Sharekhan

May 05, 2015

25.2

3.1
4.5

395.3

12.0

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Operating expense metrics

V-Guard

Q4FY13

Q1FY14

Q2FY14

Q3FY14

Q4FY14

Q1FY15

Q2FY15

Q3FY15

Q4FY15

Rm cost- % of sales

75.4

74.2

72.4

73.1

75.5

74.0

71.9

72.8

74.2

Emp cost-% of sales

4.8

5.3

6.6

5.8

4.9

5.3

6.4

6.9

6.3

S&D cost-% of sales

8.5

7.5

5.6

5.9

5.4

6.9

5.7

7.1

5.0

Other exp-% of sales

5.9

5.4

7.4

7.0

5.8

5.3

7.8

7.6

6.4

Operating margin (%)

5.3

7.6

8.1

8.2

8.4

8.5

8.3

5.5

8.0

Net profit margin (%)

2.4

4.3

4.3

5.0

4.8

4.7

4.4

2.3

4.5

Operating margin under pressure, on a weaker revenue

traction

tax rate moved up to 30% in FY2015 against 26% in FY2014,

as after 5 years of operations its tax-free plants have
now come partly under the tax net. Consequently, the
profit after tax (PAT) reported a flat growth at Rs71 crore,
which is lower than our estimate.

During Q4FY2015, though V-Guard managed to recover its

margin sequentially, the margin remained under pressure
over the last year. The operating profit margin (OPM)
contracted by 40 basis points (BPS) YoY to 8% in Q4FY2015,
despite an improvement in gross margin during this period
which would be attributable to a weak revenue traction.

Annual performance; flattish earnings

On the positive side, better management of working

capital days results in healthy return ratios

Q4FY14

FY14

YoY %

Operational income

1,746

1,518

15

Raw material cost

1,290

1,122

15

110

85

29

Selling & dist exp

108

90

20

Other expenses

105

98

1,613

1,395

16

133

123

-7

Interest

21

21

-2

Depreciation

15

12

28

PBT

101

94

Tax

31

24

27
1

Operating expenses
Operating profits
Other income

Well managed working capital

Q4FY15

FY15

Employee expenses

In Q4FY2015, the company continued to manage its

working capital prudently. The net working capital days
improved by 6 days YoY and 8 days quarter on quarter
(QoQ). The inventory and creditor days has also been well
managed to achieve this low net working capital days.
The company managed to generate a cash flow of Rs40
crore from operations and utilised the same to repay debt
to the tune of Rs31.7 crore in Q4FY2015.

Particulars

Particulars

Q3FY15

Inventory days

74

82

81

Adj PAT

71

70

Debtors days

51

51

41

Creditors days

55

57

44

Adj EPS

23.6

23.4

Net working capital days

70

76

78

Margins (%)

1
BPS

OPM

7.6

8.1

(46)

Annual performance

NPM

4.1

4.6

(57)

Margins under pressure during FY2015; ended the year

with flat earnings growth

Tax rate

30

26

468

Prudent working capital management and healthy cash

flow generation continued

The revenues for FY2015 grew by 15% YoY to Rs1,746 crore.

The product segments like stabiliser, UPS, water heater
and fan recorded a healthy growth in the range of 2030%. However, the revenues from pumps and cables
remained weak. The OPM of V-Guard contracted by 46BPS
YoY to 7.6% in FY2015. Consequently, the operating profit
grew by just 9% YoY, on a revenue growth of 15%.

During FY2015, the company managed its working capital

prudently. The net working capital days improved by 6
days to 70 days, as compared with that of FY2014. The
inventory and creditor days have been well managed to
achieve this low net working capital days. V-Guard
managed to generate a cash flow of Rs84 crore from
operations during FY2015 and utilised the same to repay
the debt to the tune of Rs31.7 crore in FY2015.

Below operating line, due to higher depreciation charges,

profit before tax (PBT) grew by 8% only. Further, effective

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May 05, 2015

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View and valuation

the margin to remain subdued. Therefore, we have revised
down our earnings estimate by 8% and 10% for FY2016E
and FY2017E respectively. Consequently, we have cut our
price target to Rs1,025 (based on 28x FY2017E) but
maintain our Hold rating on the stock, given the healthy
balance sheet and high return ratios.

Given the slower-than-expected recovery in the economy

in FY2015, some of the infrastructure related products
showed weakness and are likely to remain tepid in our
view for some time. This would affect the revenues of
V-Guard. The continued rising share of its non-south
business (lower margin than that of south market) coupled
with an overall weak demand environment, we expect

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

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May 05, 2015

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Firstsource Solutions

Reco: Buy

Stock Update

Maintain Buy with a revised PT of Rs40

Key points

Company details
Price target:

Rs40

Market cap:

Rs2,115 cr

52-week high/low:
NSE volume:
(No of shares)

CMP: Rs32

Rs44/26
18.3 lakh

BSE code:

532809

NSE code:

FSL

Sharekhan code:

FSL

Free float:
(No of shares)

29.2 cr

Shareholding pattern

Revenue growth remains elusive, margin execution in line: For Q4FY2015, Firstsource
Solutions Ltd (FSL) has delivered a muted revenue growth on a constant-currency basis,
against the managements earlier expectation of a 4% sequential growth (after factoring
$89 million revenue loss of its Irish Telecom client). The factors which have attributed
to the muted growth are; (1) lost domestic revenues to the tune of Rs4-5 crore, owing to
a pricing renegotiation issue; (2) a revenue loss of $200 thousand, due to a shut down
for 4-5 days in Louisville, North America; (3) also poor weather condition has cost a
revenue loss of $650-700 thousand. Excluding the above stated factors, the revenue
growth on a constant-currency basis for Q4FY2015 would have been 2.2% QoQ.
Nevertheless, despite softness in the revenues, the management has been able to deliver
a decent margin improvement of 70BPS to 13.2%. The net income for the quarter was up
by 8.3% QoQ to Rs62.3 crore.
Optimistic outlook for FY2016: After a lacklustre FY2015 and weak Q4FY2015, in terms of
revenue trajectory (a decline of 5.3% on a constant-currency basis YoY in FY2015), the management
maintains a 7-8% revenue growth for FY2016. The optimism in the revenue growth is led by a
strong deal pipeline of $495 million, an increase of $80 million QoQ and ACV wins of $105 million
at the end of March 2015. The management has a strong outlook for its healthcare vertical led by
payer business (expect a 15-16% Y-o-Y growth) and the provider business would catch up in
terms of growth (a 10% Y-o-Y growth). On the margin front, the management expects a 100120BPS improvement over FY2015 with an increase in OPM of 12.5%.
Attractive valuation, maintain Buy: With ramp down of clients and realignment of
domestic business being mostly over, we expect the revenue growth to come back in
FY2016. We expect a 5.1% Y-o-Y growth in revenues and 90BPS margin expansion, lower
than the managements expectations. We have also tweaked our earnings estimates on
account of lowering of our revenues estimates for FY2016 and FY2017 by 6.8% and 4.1%
respectively. At the current market price of Rs31.7, the stock trades at 7.4x and 6.2x of
its FY2016E and FY2017E earnings. With a much leaner balance sheet, net long-term
debts at $87 million (further reduction of $46 million in FY2016) and improving return
ratios, the current valuations look attractive. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock
with a revised price target of Rs40.

Price chart

Results

Rs cr

Particulars

Price performance
(%)

1m

3m

6m 12m

Absolute

3.2

2.5 -17.9

Relative
to Sensex

6.1

7.6 -17.0 -21.0

-1.5

Revenue from operations

Employee expenses
Gross profit
Operating expenses
EBITDA
Other income (net)
Depreciation and amortisation
EBIT
Interest expenses
EBT
Taxes
Minority interest
PAT
EPS
Margin (%)
GPM
EBITDA
EBIT
NPM
Tax rate
Sharekhan

Q4FY15

Q4FY14

Q3FY15

YoY %

QoQ %

754.0
488.8
265.2
165.9
99.3
0.4
18.0
81.7
17.4
64.3
2.2
(0.2)
62.3
0.9

796.2
539.5
256.7
157.8
98.9
(1.7)
18.1
79.1
19.1
60.0
1.0
0.1
58.8
0.9

751.0
502.0
249.0
155.5
93.6
2.5
18.9
77.1
17.3
59.8
2.1
0.2
57.5
0.9

-5.3
-9.4
3.3
5.2
0.4
NA
-0.7
3.2
-9.2
7.2
109.1

0.4
-2.6
6.5
6.7
6.1
NA
-5.0
5.9
0.5
7.5
2.5

5.9
5.9

8.3
8.3

35.2
13.2
10.8
8.3
3.4

32.2
12.4
9.9
7.4
1.7

33.2
12.5
10.3
7.7
3.5

May 05, 2015

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Valuations
Particulars

Other result highlights

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

3,105.9

3,034.6

3,261.0

3,536.4

EBITDA margin (%)

11.7

12.5

13.5

13.8

Net profit (Rs cr)

193.0

234.3

288.1

341.7

EPS (Rs)

2.9

3.5

4.3

5.1

PER (x)

11.0

9.1

7.4

6.2

7.8

7.4

5.8

4.5

RoE (%)

10.1

11.2

12.9

13.4

RoCE (%)

9.7

10.4

12.5

13.3

Total revenue (Rs cr)

EV/EBITDA

The companys current net long-term debt stands at

$87 million as against $98 million in the previous
quarter. The cash and cash equivalent stand at Rs147.8
crore as compared with Rs140 crore in Q3FY2015.
FSL repaid the eighth principal installment of $11.25
million on March 31, 2015. Its capital expenditure
(capex) stood at Rs11.6 crore in Q4FY2015.
The company has outstanding hedges of $39 million
(90% covered at Rs66.7 a dollar) and GBP 61 million
(90% covered at Rs109.3 a pound).

Top client: Down 8.5% QoQ owing to cross-currency headwinds,

flat on a constant-currency basis

The attrition rate for the quarter increased across the

board: offshore (India and the Philippines) was at 52.7%
against 47.1% in Q3FY2015, onshore (the USA and
Europe) was at 40.0% vs 37.4% in Q3FY2015 and
domestic (India and Sri Lanka) was at 91.0% vs 80.6%
in Q3FY2015.
Expect a tax rate of 10% for FY2016 and FY2017 with a
capex of $10-12 million for FY2016.
The total pipeline stood at $495 million, an addition
of $80 million QoQ and actual contract value (ACV) at
$105 million (booked $15 million in Q4FY2015).

Source: Company

EBITDA margin: improved by 70BPS QoQ

Wage hikes of 8-10% for offshore and 2.0-2.5% for onsite

for FY2016 (wage hikes for agents will be effective
from Q1FY2016 and that for S&M would be effective
from Q2FY2016).

Source: Company

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Operating metrics
Particulars
Revenues (in Rs crore)

Q4FY15 Q4FY14 Q3FY15

YoY %

QoQ %

754.0

796.2

751.0

-5.3

0.4

53.8

48.4

48.5

5.3

11.4

405.7

385.4

364.2

35.9

35.3

35.8

-3.7

0.7

270.7

281.1

268.9
-5.3

-9.9

-74.1

-66.5

3.2

22.0

Geographic mix (%)

USA(including Canada)
in (Rs crore)
UK
in (Rs crore)
India

The business from India was down by 9.9% QoQ,

7.9

7.9

8.8

59.6

62.9

66.1

2.3

8.4

6.9

17.3

66.9

51.8

24.3

22.3

20.0

183.2

177.6

150.2

37.5

42.8

44.3

in (Rs crore)

282.8

340.8

332.7

Healthcare

38.0

34.4

35.5

in (Rs crore)

286.5

273.9

266.6

Others

0.2

0.5

0.2

in (Rs crore)

1.5

4.0

1.5

23.5

23.1

24.2

177.2

183.9

181.7

in (Rs crore)
Rest of the World
in (Rs crore)

Remarks

attributed to a loss of revenues of Rs4-5 crore owing

to price renegotiation.

Industry verticals (%)

BFSI
in (Rs crore)
Telecom and Media

The business from telecom segment was down by

15.0% QoQ owing to a loss of an Irish client.

-17.0

-15.0

4.6

7.5

-62.1

0.4

-3.7

-2.5

-14.0

-6.7

-4.7

2.3

-8.6

-7.1

-11.7

-2.6

0.1

2.7

Delivery mix
Offshore
in (Rs crore)
Domestic

7.9

8.7

8.5

in (Rs crore)

59.6

69.3

63.8

Onshore

68.6

68.2

67.3

517.3

543.0

505.4

22.2

23.0

24.0

in (Rs crore)

167.4

183.1

180.2

Top 5 clients

42.6

45.7

43.9

in (Rs crore)

321.2

363.9

329.7

57.4

54.3

56.1

432.8

432.3

421.3

Total employees

25,285

27,666

26,621

Net addition

-1,336

-2,280

-302

Number of seats

24,001

23,388

23,698

69.0

77.0

72.0

in (Rs crore)

Offshore delivery revenue declined by 2.5% QoQ

Client contribution (%)

Top client

Other than top 5 clients

in (Rs crore)

The business from top client was down by 7.1%

QoQ, due to a cross-currency effect. It remained
flat on a constant-currency basis.

Other important metrics

Seat fill factor (%)

Net reduction of 1,336 headcounts

Source: Company

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

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May 05, 2015

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GSK Consumers
Godrej Consumer Products
Hindustan Unilever
ITC
Jyothy Laboratories
Marico
Zydus Wellness
IT / IT services
Firstsource Solutions
HCL Technologies
Infosys
Persistent Systems
Tata Consultancy Services
Wipro
Capital goods / Power
Bharat Heavy Electricals
CESC
Crompton Greaves
Finolex Cables
Greaves Cotton
Kalpataru Power Transmission
PTC India
Skipper
Triveni Turbine
Thermax
V-Guard Industries
Va Tech Wabag

Building materials
Grasim
Orient Paper and Industries
Shree Cement
The Ramco Cements
UltraTech Cement
Discretionary consumption
Cox & Kings
Century Plyboards (India)
Eros International Media
KDDL
KKCL
Raymond
Relaxo Footwears
Speciality Restaurants
Sun TV Network
Thomas Cook (India)
Zee Entertainment Enterprises
Diversified / Miscellaneous
Aditya Birla Nuvo
Bajaj Holdings
Bharti Airtel
Bharat Electronics
Gateway Distriparks
Max India
Ratnamani Metals and Tubes
Supreme Industries
Technocraft Industries (India)
UPL

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Sharekhan

May 05, 2015

Compliance Officer: Ms. Namita Amod Godbole; Tel: 022-6115000; e-mail: compliance@sharekhan.com Contact: myaccount@sharekhan.com

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