CHAPTER 3

IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDOUS ROAD LOCATION

AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction
The study can be broadly divided into three main themes, firstly analysis of the accidents
and secondly evaluation of the performance of safety measures implemented and finally
Accident prediction model in the study area. The identification of hazardous highway
locations is an important first step for highway safety improvement hazardous road
location (HRL) program is a formal process, which aims to identify location within the
road system, which have an unacceptably high incidence of road accidents, in order to
develop appropriate treatments to reduce the costs of accidents. Knowledge on accident
rate, severity, spatial and temporal distribution, collision pattern etc are essential to
determine cost effective countermeasures for reducing both the number of accident and
extent of severity. A time series analysis of accident is needed for both micro and macro
analysis of accident. Any road improvement work in general and safety scheme in
particular, will have direct impact on the overall safety situation, particularly on collision
pattern. As such there is an urgent need to evaluate their performance for developing a
strategy to combat accident problem. Again accidents are also function of highway
operating condition, road side development, land use pattern, road side activity, level of
enforcement, traffic characteristics which is a peculiar combination of MV and NMV
even in high standard national highways in Bangladesh. So accident patterns are also
related to these functions. In this chapter identification of hazardous road location,
methodological consideration in accident analysis, various techniques to represent
accident problem, evaluation methods including various statistical tests to ascertain the
effectiveness of safety scheme, etc are discussed.
3.2 The Road Inventory
The study location envisaged a total length of 75.4 km along Dhaka-Aricha highway,
starting form 11.9 km reference at Aminbazar Bridge to 87.3 km at Aricha. It is a part of
historical grand trunk road and presently an important portion of national highway
network, forming the link between Dhaka and the ferry routes at Aricha, the main
connection to the Western and Southwestern part of Bangladesh. This road is also a
mentionable portion of Asian Highway. The road is constructed in 1960 and passes
through six upazillas (UZ), namely Savar and Dhamrai UZ of Dhaka District and Saturia,
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Manikganj, Ghior and Shibalaya UZ of Manikganj District. It is within Dhaka zone of

RHD, covering Dhaka and Manikganj Division.
The highway under study encompasses varied geometric and environmental conditions.
Owing to close proximity in traffic volume and composition characteristics, land use
pattern, geometric and operational condition the highway is divided into three main
sections/major links, which are named as section 1, 2 and 3 (Figure 3.1), these are also
known as link 32, 33, and 34 respectively by RHD. Section1 is of 22.1 km length, which
originates from Aminbazar Bridge (11.9 Km) and ends at Nabinagar (34.0 Km); Section 2
extends from Nabinagar up to Manikganj Town bus stand, which is of 29.3 km length and
Section 3 is of 30 km length stretching from Manikganj bus stand up to Aricha Ghat
(87.3Km). Again for detailed accident analysis purpose, the highway is divided into 32
locational codes comprising of 16 intersections (2x Staggered T, 11xT and 3x Y type) and
16 links (Mid block locations) to identify accidents by locations (Figure 3.2 - Figure 3.4).
3.3 Need for HRL identification
The need and overall goal of an HRL program is to Identify locations at which there is
both an inherently high risk of accident losses and an economically justifiable opportunity
for reducing this risk, and To identify countermeasure options and priorities which
maximize the economic benefits from the HRL program.
3.4 Techniques generally applied to determine the HRL
(Source :Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.3, No.1, September, 1999)

3.4.1 General

Many techniques have been applied to determine the worst locations [Brown in 1992,
Zegeer in I 982 and Gharaybeh in I 991 ]. These techniques include the accident
frequency method, accident rate method, accident severity method, rate quality control
method, and others. The way hazardous highway locations are identified differ with each
of these methods. For example, the accident frequency and accident severity methods
identify hazardous highway locations based on number of accidents but the accident rate
and rate quality control methods consider both accident frequency and traffic volumes.
The individual strengths of each of these separate methods can limit overall accuracy of
the results because of their nilrow focus of each. A collection or combination of methods
should be compared collectively for the most accurate results. Therefore, a combination
of the results of various methods implemented in this research is introduced in order to
increase the degree of accuracy of identifying hazardous highway locations. These
methods were compared and evaluated in order to get the suitable method for identifying
hazardous highway locations. The results indicated that the accident frequency method is
most similar to accident severity method and both methods are different from accident
rate method, rate quality control method, and combination method. Furthermore, the
individual methods are not suitable to be used alone to identify hazardous highway
locations because the results from these individual methods are so highly dependent upon
input data. The combination of the four earlier methods into a combination method
appears to be more reliable in identifying hazardous highway locations because the results
do not change much when some situations (i.e., changing accident data) vary.

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3.4.2 Methods for identify hazardous highway locations

This paper shows comparison of five methods. These methods of identifying hazardous
highway locations included the accident frequency, accident rate, accident severity, rate
quality control and a newly developed combination method. These various methods were
compared and evaluated in order to discem method idiosyncrasies and to develop a more
dependable and desirable method. The hazardous highway locations were identified based
on these methods. The details of these methods are reviewed as follows [Zegeer in 1982
and Gharaybeh in 19911]
3.4.2.1 Accident Frequency Method

The accident frequency method is used to search the accident file for concentrations of
accidents within a fixed or variable segment length. Usually one or more segment lengths
(0. l-mile, 0.3-mile, 0.5-mile, l-mile, 3-mile, etc.) are used to,float', through the accident
file in which accidents are ordered by location, and sections that meet or exceed a
predefined accident criterion are identified. Such floating segments generally advance in
0.I-mile increments through the file. When a roadway segment that meets the user
specified frequency criteria is identified, the location is printed out along with the
corresponding accident information.
3.4.2.2 Accident Rate Method

The accident rate method consists of simply dividing the accident frequency at a location
by the vehicle exposure to determine the number of accidents per million vehicle-miles of
trawei at highway segments (generally defined as 0.3-mile segments or less). Segments
are priority ranked in order of descending accident rate. The accident rate for any
highway segment that is currently used by the Tenessee Departrment of Transportation is
calculated as follows:
R = A*1,000,000/(365*T*V*L)
where:
A=accident rate for highway segment (in accidents per million
vehicle miles),
A = number ofaccidents for given analysis period,
T = time of analysis period (in years or fraction of years), V = average annual daily traffrc
(AADT) during study period, and L = length of highway segment (in miles).
3.4.2.3 Rate Quality Control Method
The rate quality control method not only entails the calculation ofthe accident rate at each
location, but also a statistical test to determine if that rate is significantly higher than
accident rates for other locations with similar characteristics. The statistical test is based
on the commonly accepted assumption that accidents follow a Poisson distribution. For
each location, a critical rate that is currently used by TDor is computed as follows:
Rc = Ra + K(Ra/E)^.5 + 1/(2E)
where:
Rc= critical accident rate for highway segment (accidents per million
vehicle-miles),
Ra = average accident rate for all highway segments of similar characteristics
or on similar road types,

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E = million vehicle-miles of travel on the highway segment during the

study period = (365*T*V*L)/1,000,000 , and.
K = a probability factor determined by the desired level of
significance for the equation. The values of K corresponding
to 99o/o confidence level is 2.327 . The critical rate Rc is computed for each location and
compared to the actual accident rate (R). If the actual accident rate exceeds the critical
rate, then the location may be considered for improvement. Therefore, the highway
locations are ranked based on their R/Rc ratio. According to this method, the study area
has to be divided into several groups. In this Thesis paper, the N5 highway were divided
into three sections(as stated earlier) based on the characteristics of roadway and regional
offices that are responsible for maintaining the highway system.
3.4.2.4 Accident Severity Methods
Accident severity methods are used to identify and/or rank locations based on the number
of severe accidents at each location. Accident severity is defined by the National Safety
Council and many states in the following categories:
-Fatal Accident,
-A-Type Injury (Incapacitation) Accident,
-B-Type Injury (Nonincapacitating) Accident,
-C-Type Injury (Probable Injury) Accident, and
-PDO (Property Damage Only) Accident
The severity index (SI) can be determined using the following equation:
SI = (F + PI) /Total Accidents.
where:
SI = severity index,
F = numberoffatalaccidentsduringstudyperiod,
PI =Number ofpersonal injury accidents during study period, and
Total = total number of all types of accidents for this segment.
High hazardous highway locations can be identified using this severity index.
3.4.2.5 Combination Methods
The major contribution of recent research was the development an improvement decision
management tool. A combination method combines all four methods dlscribed previously
together (or other various selected combinations), and their inherent individual strenglhi,
in order to create a better decision-making tool for selecting hazardous highway locatlons.
The hazardous highway locations are ranked on the basis oIa newly deveiopedHazardous
Index (HI) determined by the following equation:
HI = ( F_Rank + R_Rank + S_Rank + Q Rank) / 4
where:
HI =hazardous index,
F_Rank =rank of location by accident fiequency method,
R_Rank = rank of location by accident ratemethod,
S_Rank = rank of location by accident severity method, and
Q_Rank rank of location by rate quality control method,rdous.
(Note: The denominator value of "4" must correspond to the number of methods whose

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ranks are totaled in the numerator.)

The location that has the lowest Hazardous Index will be ranked first. The location that
has
the next highest Hazardous Index will be second and so on.

3.5 Approaches of Accident Analysis

Accident analysis is conducted both at micro and macro level. Macro scale considers
accident occurrence in a town, country, region, state or worldwide. On the micro scale,
concentration is on accidents occurring on a specific network, facility, or location (curve,
or intersection, airport, train station highway exit, interchange).
3.5.1 Macro scale Analysis.
On the macro scale, accidents are summarized in tabular or chart form, providing a record
of the performance of a region or a country in terms of one or more transport modes.
Accident occurrence, severity (in terms of fatality, injuries, or property damage), and rates
provide a statistical illustration of safety performance. Rates are intended to provide a
yardstick of safety related to the amount of exposure to danger involved in the transport
mode. For instance, the common rate used in highway traffic safety is accidents (or
injuries or fatalities) per 100 million vehicle-miles, on the assumption that the number of
vehicles, multiplied by the number of miles (estimated) driven by those vehicles, is a
reasonable measure of the exposure to danger of the occupants of the vehicles. At
highway intersections, a rate based on number of vehicles entering the intersection is
more appropriate.
In this study, these methods are adopted in order to understand trends in accident
occurrences.

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3.5.2 Micro scale Analysis.

Micro scale accident studies can be subdivided into the study of individual accidents,
known as accident reconstruction, and the study of high accident locations, as they
are known in traffic engineering. In this latter analysis, patterns of occurrence and types
are analyzed for clues to causation, generally related to design and control elements at the
location in question. In USA accident reconstruction is performed in all transportation
modes and practiced at all governmental levels.
Locational analysis is conducted at high-accident-frequency locations. The studies are
based upon the individual accident report as a basic document. This procedure has
developed to its fullest in highway traffic safety, because the method requires relatively
large numbers of accidents to occur at or near the same location, or for relatively large
numbers of the same type of accident to occur on a facility or stretch of roadway. In this
study all these three types of analysis are conducted while investigating causes of
accidents.

3.5.3 Methodologies for Expressing Accident Rate

Moreover different methods are in practice through which accident rate can be expressed.
Few of these are described in the subsequent articles.
Accident Rate Per Kilometer
On this basis, the total accident hazard is expressed as the number of accidents of all
types per kilometer of each highway and street classification.
R = A/L
Where R = total accident rate per kilometer for one year
A = total no of accidents occurring in one year
L = length or control section in kilometers
Death Rate based on Population
The traffic hazard to life in a community is expressed as the number of traffic fatalities
per 100,000 populations. This rate reflects the accident exposure for the entire area.
R = B*100,000
P
Where R = Death per 100,000 population
B = total no of traffic deaths in one year
P = population of area
Death Rate Based on Registration
The traffic hazards of life in a community can also be expressed as the number of traffic
fatalities per 10,000 vehicles registered. This rate reflects the accident exposure for the
entire area and has a use similar to death rate based on population.
R = (B*10,000)/M
Where R = death rate per 10,000 vehicles registered
B = total no of traffic deaths in one year
M = number of motor vehicles registered in the area.

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Accident Rate Based on Vehicle-Kilometers of Travel

The accident hazard in this case is expressed as the no of accidents per 100 million
vehicle kilometers of travel. The true exposure to accidents is probably more nearly
approximated by the kilometers of travel by vehicles than by either the population or
registration. Here the accident rate is expressed.
R = (C* 100000000)/V
Where R = accident rate per 100 million vehicle kilometers
C = no of accidents (Deaths or injuries or total accidents) in one year
V= Vehicle km of travel in one year
Among these methods, accident rate based on vehicle-km of travel is more accepted and
popular for comparison purpose, as it takes into cognizance of the traffic flow in a way
degree of exposure. In this study, traffic flow for the entire study duration is estimated
with the available RHD traffic data and using this flow accident rate is determined in
terms of vehicle-km of travel for the entire highway.
3.5.4 Framework of Accident Analysis
The necessary steps and the systematic process involved in the framework of accident
analysis, developed by Hoque, M.M. (1988) are outlined in Fig. 3.1. This framework of
accident analysis systematically divides accident problems into component parts starting
from the occurrence of accident events and ending up with site-specific treatments. Basic
steps involved in the analysis of accident data by using framework are:

To collect relevant crash data with specific details of objective information.

To identify hazardous location with respect to crash types and road class.
To sub-divide the hazardous location into intersections and links to determine the
distributions of crash types, distributions of crashes by road class and/or by
temporal, diurnal and social characteristics.
To develop ranking of locations on priority basis.
To determine specific nature of crash problem and develop countermeasures.

In this study accident types and locations are identified and are further divided into
links/intersections/major links as shown in the framework but further division into local
government areas (LGA) by inserting population/employment characteristics is not
conducted due to non-availability of relevant data. Clustering/non-clustering of accidents
including determination of problem is also conducted.

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Figure 3.5

Steps Involve in Determining Accident Problem

Accident Data

Accident Types

Road Class

Accident Location

Travel
Characteristics

Accident Location by L.G.A

Intersection Accidents

Accidents by
Road Class

Population/
Employment
Characteristics

Link Accidents

Accidents Type
Distribution

Ranking accident Types

Temporal/Social/Diurnal
Character of Accidents

Road Class
Ranking

Clustering/Non-Clustering

Determine Problem

(Source: Hoque 1988)

3.6.1 Methods of Evaluation

There are basically four ways in which the performance of any safety scheme may be
evaluated (Ogden, 1996). These are explained in the subsequent Articles.

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Controlled Experimentation
In which all other factors are held constant except the factor whose effect is being
investigated; this approach is rarely if ever applicable in road safety engineering because
in the real world it is not possible to hold everything constant, and it will not be discussed
further.
Before and After Studies

The simplest method is to compare the accident record at the site before and after
the implementation of the scheme. It essentially involves:
Determining in advance the relevant objectives (e.g. accident types intended to be
affected) and the corresponding evaluation criteria (e.g. accident frequency,
accident rate)
Monitoring the site or area to obtain numerical values of these criteria before the
treatment and again after the treatment
Comparing the before and after results, and
Considering whether there are other plausible explanations for the changes, and
correcting for them if possible.

Comparisons Using Control Sites

The process involves:
Determining in advance the relevant objectives (e.g. accident types intended to be
affected) and the corresponding evaluation criteria (e.g. accident frequency,
accident rate)
Identifying a control site or (preferably) a set of control sites where no remedial
works have been or are intended to be introduced
Monitoring both the treated site (s) and the control site (s) to obtain numerical
values of these criteria before the treatment and again after the treatment
Comparing the before and after results at both the treated and control sites,
Considering whether there are other plausible explanations for the changes, and
correcting for them if possible.
Selection of the control sites is obviously of key importance. Ideally, they would
be randomly selected. However, this is rarely possible, unless a large number of
control sites can be identified and a random selection made from these.
The control sites should satisfy the following criteria (Ward and Allsop, 1982)
be similar to treated sites in general characteristics (network, geometry, land use,
enforcement)
be geographically close
have similar traffic flow
not affected by treatment at test site
not treated within before-after period
have accident data

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Time Trend Comparisons

This method, which usually involves the development of a model for estimating the trend
in accidents over time, is an alternative method of accounting for time-dependent changes
without using control sites. It involves:
Determining in advance the relevant objectives (e.g. accident types intended to be
affected) and the corresponding evaluation criteria (e.g. accident frequency,
accident rate)
Obtaining data on each of the criteria for an extended period of time, both before
and after implementation of the treatment,
Developing a model based on the before period,
Comparing whether there are other plausible explanations for the changes, and
correcting for them if possible.
In this study before-after studies and control site technique are adopted for evaluating the
performances of safety schemes implemented along Dhaka-Aricha highway.
3.6.2 Statistical Analysis
A number of statistical methods may be applied in analyzing the effectiveness of accident
preventive measures. Table 3.1 summarizes few statistical tests that may be undertaken if
adequately supported by data.
Table 3.1 Guide to Statistical Tests
Evaluation design

Before and after

Criteria
Frequency
Rates
Properties
Variance
Distribution shifts
Frequency

Before and after with

randomized control,
comparison group, with
correction for regression
means

Properties
Rates

Variance
Distribution shifts

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Tests
X for Poisson
Paired t- test
z-test
F-test
RIDT
X2 for Poisson paired t-test
for before after t- test for
group Vs group Analysis of
covariance
Median test Mann Whitney
z-test for properties
paired t-test for before after
t- test for group Vs group
Analysis of covariance
F-tests
F tests
Kolmogorov-Smirnov
2

If

X2 (est.) 2 (critical), indicates no change due to the improvement

From past experience the expected number of accident and confidence limit can be
established. If observed number of accidents at a particular site falls beyond these limits it
can be deduced that there is a significant change in the accident causation.

3.7 Methodology Used in the Study

The study is predominantly concerned with extensive analysis of accident data,
countermeasures, highway operational and geometric condition along this corridor to
determine the effect of these on accident causation and subsequently suggest cost
effective safety measures on other roads of similar standard in Bangladesh perspective.
The detail methodology involves are discussed in following steps:
Collection of Accident data from ARI, covering the period from 2004-2011, along
Dhaka Aricha highway to develop a year wise and road segment wise database
for the aforesaid period.
Collect and compile traffic volume data to determine the change of traffic volume
pattern .
Collect and compile information on road safety schemes and other improvement
works along this corridor.
Conduct a detailed survey to identify highway geometric and operational
condition.
Preparation of record of observations on geometric and operational condition
along this corridor.
Estimating year wise and segment wise traffic volume and corresponding vehiclekm run.
Conduct both micro and macro analysis of accident using the collected accident
data.
Identify high accident locations along this corridor.
Conduct a time series analysis using the accident data and relate it with the
improvement work to asses their performance.

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