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Sunshine duration is declining in Nepal across the period from 1987 to 2010
Neelam NIROULA a , Kazuhiko KOBAYASHI a, , and Jianqing XU b
a
b
Graduate school of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Yayoi 1-1-1, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan
Center for Research in Isotopes and Environmental Dynamics (CRiED), University of Tsukuba, Tennoudai 1-1-1, Tsukuba 3058577, Japan
Abstract
We analyzed temporal changes of sunshine duration (SSD) and number of rainy days (NRD) in Nepal across its three
physiographic regions: plains, low-hills, and high-hills and mountains for the period from 1987 to 2010 from records at
13 meteorological stations. We found declining trends in SSD (i.e., solar dimming) across Nepal at a rate of 0.20% per
year, with the highest decline occurring during the post-monsoon season (0.33% per year), followed by the premonsoon season (0.24% per year). A close look at individual stations indicated that declines in pre- and post-monsoon
seasons are common regional phenomena. By region, dimming was pronounced (0.56% per year) in the plains at 0300
m above sea level and gradually diminished as elevation rose. The NRD for the same 13 stations showed a significant declining trend (0.20% per year), which suggests that the change in NRD is not a major driver of the decreased SSD in
Nepal. We argue that the decline in SSD might be influenced by transboundary air pollution from the Indian subcontinent
and biomass burning across the region as suggested by other studies.
Key words: Air pollution, Atmospheric brown clouds, Biomass burning, Nepal, Solar radiation.
1. Introduction
Solar radiation (SR) is the ultimate source of energy for life on
Earth. It governs a wide range of physical and ecological processes such as surface energy exchange, snow and glacier melt, photosynthesis, and associated plant growth (Wild, 2009). On a more
applied level, SR knowledge is crucial for solar energy technologies and agricultural production.
Long-term observations of SR flux at the Earths surface across
the globe have revealed significant changes in SR on decadal time
scales: a widespread reduction in SR, or global dimming, from the
1950s to the late 1980s (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001; Liepert, 2002)
followed by a sustained increase, or global brightening (Wild et
al., 2005; Wild, 2009). Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic
air pollution, as well as the subsequent change in the optical properties of clouds and aerosol-cloud interactions, are considered to
be the most probable cause of these changes (Stanhill and Cohen,
2001; Streets et al., 2006). Despite global brightening, dimming
has persisted in the rapidly developing country of India, coherent
with its increased aerosol emissions (Padma Kumari et al., 2007;
Wild et al., 2009). These aerosols form thick layers of haze,
termed atmospheric brown clouds (ABC), particularly during dry
seasons, and block SR from reaching the surface, thereby causing
dimming in India (Ramanathan et al., 2001; Padma Kumari et al.,
2007). ABC from India are further transported to reach the Himalayas in Nepal (Ramanathan et al., 2007; Bonasoni et al., 2008),
where they possibly alter the regions climate and hydrology
(Bonasoni et al., 2012). In addition to transboundary pollution,
local air pollution has also increased in major cities in Nepal.
Vehicular emissions in urban areas have, for example, increased
Received; June 16, 2014.
Accepted; October 9, 2014.
Corresponding Author: aclasman@mail.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp
DOI: 10.2480/agrmet.D-14-00025
2. Methodology
2.1 The study area
Located between 26.2530.5 north and 80.088.25 east, Nepal is a landlocked mountainous country in South Asia. With the
exception of the Himalayas as its northern border with China,
Nepal is bordered by India on all other sides (Fig. 1). Elevation
across Nepal ranges from 65 m above sea level (m a.s.l.) in the
plains to more than 8,000 m a.s.l. in the high Himalayas, including
Mount Everest (8,848 m a.s.l.). The mountains that cover about
83% of the total land area in Nepal play a vital role in the Indian
summer monsoon environment by protecting the Indian subcontinent from the dry, cold air masses of central Asia and blocking the
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Fig. 1. Map of Nepal, showing location of the meteorological stations, the three physiographic regions and five development
regions. The names of the stations are abbreviated with the first three characters except for the station Dhankuta (DHK). See
Table 1 for details of the stations.
warm, moist airflow from the Indian Ocean (Shrestha et al.,
2012). This monsoon is crucial for the climate and agriculture of
Nepal, which experiences four distinct seasons: the winter (DecemberFebruary), pre-monsoon (MarchMay), monsoon
(JuneSeptember), and post-monsoon (October and November)
seasons.
Elevation
(m a.s.l.)
Latitude (degree
decimal North)
Longitude (degree
decimal East)
Duration of
SSD record
Biratnagar
72
26.48
87.27
1980-2009
1990-2010
23%
Bhairawaha
109
27.52
83.43
1980-2009
1997-2010
28%
Simara
130
27.17
84.98
1980-2009
1997-2010
6%
Dhangadi
187
28.80
80.55
1980-2009
1994-2010
17%
Dipayal
720
29.23
80.93
1982-2009
1997-2010
26%
Surkhet
720
28.60
81.62
1980-2009
1991-2010
19%
Pokhara
827
28.22
84.00
1980-2009
1987-2010
24%
Dhankuta
1210
26.98
87.35
1980-2009
1991-2009
31%
Kathmandu
1337
27.70
85.37
1980-2009
1991-2010
2%
Okhaldhunga
1720
27.32
86.50
1980-2009
1991-2010
24%
Taplejung
1732
27.35
87.67
1980-2009
1991-2010
26%
Dadeldhura
1848
29.30
80.58
1980-2009
1991-2010
30%
Jumla
2300
29.28
82.17
1980-2009
1988-2010
26%
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missing day(s) by using average SSD across all other days in the
month. Each monthly total was then calculated as the sum of
available daily values and filled missing values. Months with
more than two missing daily values were excluded and considered
to be missing. SSD should be affected by cloud cover whose increase reduces SR (Dessler, 2010). To understand the influence
of cloud cover on SSD, number of days with > 0 mm rainfall was
used as a proxy of cloud cover since such data were unavailable.
NRD was calculated from precipitation records obtained from the
DHM for all 13 stations (Table 1). There were no gaps in precipitation data, and monthly total NRD was calculated as the total
number of rainy days per month.
For the geographical analysis of this study, we classified the
study area into three physiographic regions based on elevation:
plains (below 300 m a.s.l.), low hills (LH; 3011500 m a.s.l.)
and high hills and mountains (HHM; above 1500 m a.s.l.), as
shown in Fig. 1. The division by elevation was adapted from the
Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (2010), which is
Table 2. All-Nepal annual mean of daily total sunshine duration (SSD, hour), monthly total SSD (hour) and inter-annual
trends (%/year) in SSD and number of rainy days (NRD) across the stations and physiographic regions for the period 19872010 (SSD) and 1980-2009 (NRD).
Regions
Station name
Biratnagar
7.0
212.9
0.71**
Bhairawaha
7.2
220.3
0.35
0.18
Simara
7.4
224.8
0.19
0.25
Dhangadi
7.2
217.9
0.95***
0.30
7.2
219.0
0.56***
0.01
Dipayal
6.9
210.8
0.53
Surkhet
7.4
223.9
0.36**
0.72***
Pokhara
6.5
198.1
0.06
0.11
Dhankuta
6.8
207.3
0.17
0.62**
Kathmandu
6.1
186.1
0.32*
0.16
6.7
205.3
0.09
0.35***
Okhaldhunga
6.2
188.7
0.30
0.06
Taplejung
6.1
185.4
0.03
0.02
Dadeldhura
7.3
221.5
0.09
0.42
Jumla
7.1
216.4
0.31*
0.27
6.7
203.0
0.05
0.17
All-Nepal
6.9
209.1
Plains
Low-hills
a.
0.20***
0.15
0.32
0.20***
Statistical significance of the trends are shown by *** for P<0.001, ** for P<0.01, and * for P<0.05. Trends with no asterisks
were not significantly different from zero.
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3. Results
3.1 Station-based, regional, and all-Nepal annual SSD trends
Table 2 shows the annual means of daily total, monthly total,
and inter-annual trends for all individual stations, for the three
physiographic regions, and for Nepal in general. For individual
stations, daily total SSD varied from 6.1 h at Taplejung in the
HHM to 7.4 h at Simara in the plains. Regionally, daily total and
monthly total SSD were highest in the plains, followed by those in
the LH and HHM. All-Nepal values for daily total and monthly
total SSD were 6.9 h and 209.1 h, respectively.
Most stations showed decreasing trends in monthly total SSD,
though a few showed increasing trends. Among stations, Biratnagar and Dhangadi in the plains and Surkhet and Kathmandu
in the LH showed maximum decline, with the highest decrease
rate of 0.95% per year occurring in Dhangadi. By contrast, Jumla
in the HHM showed a significant increasing trend. Regionally, the
highest decline in SSD was observed in the plains, followed by
the LH, while the HHM showed increasing trends. These regional
trends indicate that a reduction in SSD has been prominent in the
plains and that the decline gradually diminished with increasing
elevation. From 19872010, Nepal experienced a significant decline in SSD at an average rate of 0.20% per year.
Table 3. Inter-annual trends in sunshine duration (SSD) and interaction between stations and years in the three
physiographic regions for the period 1987-2010.
Region
Plains
0.56***
0.088
Low-hills
0.09
0.076
0.05
0.20
0.048
***
<0.0001
a.
Statistical significance of the trends are shown by *** for P<0.001, ** for P<0.01, and * for P<0.05. Trends with
no asterisks were not significantly different from zero.
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Fig. 2. Estimated trends in annual mean monthly total sunshine duration (SSD, hour/month) at individual stations in plains
(a), low-hills (b), and high-hills and mountains (c) for the period from 1987 to 2010. Symbols are the observations and lines
are the linear-model fit. See Fig. 1 for the location of the stations and Table 1 for their details.
Note: BHA- Bhairawaha, BIR- Biratnagar, DHA- Dhangadi, SIM- Simara, DHK- Dhankuta, DIP- Dipayal, KTM- Kathmandu, POK- Pokhara, SUR- Surkhet, DAD- Dadeldhura, JUM- Jumla, OKH- Okhaldhunga and TAP- Taplejung.
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Table 4. Regional and all-Nepal trends in sunshine duration (SSD, %/year) and number of rainy days (NRD, %/year)
by season for the period 1987-2010 (SSD) and 1980-2009 (NRD).
SSD and NRD trends by season (%/year)a
Regions
Plains
Low-hills
Winter
Pre-monsoon
Monsoon
Post-monsoon
Parameters
Dec-Feb
Mar-May
Jun-Sep
Oct-Nov
SSD
0.80**
0.51***
0.31
0.70**
NRD
0.75
0.23
0.01
0.27
SSD
0.26
0.21
0.24
NRD
1.58
***
0.16
***
0.17
0.31
0.27
0.17
0.17
0.25
0.28
0.33***
SSD
0.54*
0.02
NRD
0.97*
0.04
SSD
0.05
0.24
NRD
1.16***
0.04
***
0.18**
0.09
0.12
a.
Statistical significance of the trends are shown by *** for P<0.001, ** for P<0.01, and * for P<0.05. Trends with no
asterisks were not significantly different from zero.
cant.
On a regional basis, annual NRD showed declining trends in
the LH and HHM but no trends in the plains (Table 2). The
change in NRD therefore cannot be the major contributor to the
dimming in the plains and LH, yet could explain the increasing
SSD trends in the HHM. To clarify this issue, Table 4 compares
SSD and NRD trends in different regions and seasons. Among the
four seasons, the winter and monsoon seasons exhibited significant declines in NRD in the LH, followed by the HHM. In these
regions, the NRD trend could explain the brightening observed in
winter, but in the plains, NRD trends were not significant and
could not have made any major contribution to dimming in the
pre- or post-monsoon season. Overall, Nepal shows a significant
decline in NRD at a rate of 0.20% per year (Table 2).
Fig. 3. Monthly mean sunshine duration (SSD, hour/day) and monthly number of rainy days (NRD, day) averaged across the 13
stations for the period from 1987 to 2010.
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Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to Mr. Ram Chandra Karki of Nepals
DHM for the meteorological data used in the study. Comments
from the two anonymous reviewers helped the authors to clarify
the manuscript. The first author was supported by Japans Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
(MEXT).
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