11th May15

Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

Monsoon Report 2015

Contents
Monsoon Talks
Weekly Rainfall
Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall
State-Wise Agri. Activities
Weather Outlook for Coming Week
Reservoir Status
Long Range Forecast
Feedback
Monsoon Talks
Below-par monsoon could further damage rural economy The Indian agriculture is largely dependent on the monsoon with almost 60 per cent of total
net sown area under rain-fed agriculture. The rain-fed crops account for around 45 per cent of sown area of food grains and 68 per cent of overall non-food
grain crops.
Arabian Sea off Kerala warming up to host monsoon over next three days Conditions are favorable for the monsoon to reach within ears shot of Kerala
along the south-west coast during the next two to three days, an India Meteorological Department update said on Monday.
El Nino may bring weak monsoon to Kerala The monsoon will arrive in Kerala on May 30, but may be weak because of El Nino, India Meteorological
Department (IMD) scientists have indicated.

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Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

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11th May15

Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

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11th May15

Indian Weather Outlook

Rainfall during the Week (For the week ending on 6th May, 2015)

Level A Commodities

Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall (1st March to 6th May, 2015)

Rainfall was excess/normal in 25 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
All India Actual: 163.6 mm, Normal: 106.7 mm and Departure: 53.

Rainfall was excess/normal in 15, deficient/scanty in 20 and no rain in 1

All India Actual: 18.7 mm, Normal: 14.1 mm and Departure: 32.

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Indian Weather Outlook

Week Ending (20.05.2015) (in mm)

Region
North-West India
Central India
South Peninsular India
East & North-East India
Country as a whole

Actual
7.8
5.7
37
44.3
18.7

Normal
6.8
4.5
19.6
42.5
14.1

Deviation (%)
15
28
89
4
32

Level A Commodities

Cumulative (01.03.15 to 20.05.15) (in mm)

Cat.
N
D
E
N
D

Actual
206.5
72
163.9
273.7
163.6

Normal
100
31
92.4
296.8
106.7

Deviation (%)
107
132
77
-8
53

Cat.
E
E
E
N
E

E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, S: Scanty, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

State-Wise Agricultural Activities

Eastern Uttar Pradesh
Dry weather.
Agricultural operations like irrigation in sugarcane, urd, maize and zaid vegetables are in progress.
Sugarcane and moong are in vegetative stage.
Onion is ready to harvest and maize is in tasseling stage.
Summer vegetables are at flowering stage.
Low intensity of yellow vein mosaic in moong crop and fruit borer in bhindiwere noticed.
Western Uttar Pradesh
Dry weather.
Agricultural operations like threshing and storage of wheat, barley, pigeon pea.
Irrigation/weeding in zaid urd, zaid moong and sunflower crops are in progress.
Wheat, barley and pigeon pea are at maturity stage.
Zaid urd and moong are at vegetative to flowering stage.
Vegetables are in flowering and fruiting stage.
Low intensity of thirps in urd and moong were noticed.
West Bengal
Light rainfall received
Agricultural operations like harvesting of boro rice, wheat
Intercultural operations and harvesting of winter and summer vegetables like brinjal, tomato, okra, bitter gourd, cucumber.
Harvesting of chilli.
Applying irrigation moong and sesame.
Intercultural operation in jute, mango and banana.

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11th May15

Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

Harvesting of jack fruits are in progress.

Summer vegetables and all gourds are in vegetative and fruiting stage.
Okra and bitter gourd are in seedling stage.
Chilli is in vegetative as well as fruiting stage.
Onion and mung is at maturity stage.
Sesame is at flowering to maturity stage.
Coriander is at Maturity stage.
Low intensity of black spot in mangowas noticed.

Maharashtra
Dry weather
Agricultural operations like need based irrigation/plant protection is being scheduled to reproductive stage of summer crops and vegetables.
Basin mulching in fruit/tree crops and thatches are being made for young growing fruit plantation.
Cultivation of okra, cucurbits, cowpea, coriander etc. is being undertaken.
Hasta bahar acid lime fruits and mature mriga bahar fruits in mandarin.
Sweet orange areas are being harvested.
Time to time harvesting of sapota is in progress.
Maintenance work of farm pond, contour / drainage lines in fields are in progress.
Summer crops (groundnut, sunflower, summer green gram etc.) Vegetables are at reproductive stage.
Fruit bearing stage in mango.
Mriga bahar fruits in mandarin and sweet orange.
Hasta bahar acid lime, papaya and sapota are at harvest stage.
No major pests and diseases were noticed.
Andhra Pradesh

Severe heat wave conditions would prevail over some parts in the districts of East Godavari, West Godavari, Krishna,
Guntur, Prakasham and Nellore of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Chittoor & Kadapa of Rayalaseema.

Rainfall occurred at isolated places over Rayalaseema and few places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh

Agricultural operations like summer ploughings and land preparation for kharif sowing was going on.
Low intensity of sucking pest in maize and smut in sugarcane was noticed.

Assam

Light rainfall received in Assam state during this week.

Agricultural operations like planting of banana and papaya.
Intercultural operation of summer vegetables crops are in progress.
Summer vegetables are at flowering to fruiting stage.
No major pests and diseases were noticed.

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11th May15

Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

Bihar

Light rainfall
Irrigation in summer maize, summer moong and urd crops are in progress.
Summer maize is in knee high to cob initiation stage.
Summer moong and urd are in early vegetative growth stage.
No major pests and diseases were noticed.

Chhattisgarh
Light rainfall
Irrigation application in summer vegetables
Summer groundnut and cucurbitaceous crops.
Harvesting of safflower, linseed, wheat, field pea.
Need based application of insecticides in summer rice and vegetables against stem borer, aphids, thrips, fruit and pod
borer and other pests.
Drip and sprinkler irrigation in vegetable, fruit and plantation crops particularly in Chhattisgarh plains region.
Top dressing of urea/ nitrogenous fertilizers in summer rice crops are in progress.
Summer rice is at milking stage.
Sesame is in seed formation stage, groundnut and sunflower are in maturity stage.
Maize is in cob formation stage.
Solanaceous vegetables (tomato, brinjal, chilies) are at flowering to fruiting stage.
Crucifers (cabbage/ cauliflower) are in head formation stage.
Low to moderate intensity of aphids in vegetables and fruit borer.
White fly & leaf curling in solanaceous vegetables crops was noticed.
Gujarat
Dry weather.
Irrigation in okra.
Harvesting in pearl millet, groundnut are in progress.
Green gram and summer groundnut are in maturity stage.
Okra is in flowering to fruiting stage.
No major pests and diseases were noticed.

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11th May15

Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

Haryana
Dry weather.
Sowing of late sown cotton.
Nursery sowing of paddy.
Summer ploughing in fallow field.
Irrigation in vegetable and horticulture crops.
Cleaning of bunds in fallow fields are in progress.
Cotton & summer fodder are in vegetative stage.
Summer moong is in peak vegetative stage and bhendi are at fruiting to maturity stage.
No major pests and diseases were noticed.
Himachal Pradesh
Light rainfall
Arrangement of fodder for cattle and dairy animals.
Sowing of summer vegetable crops are in progress.
Wheat and mustard are at harvesting stage.
Summer vegetables are in emergence to seedling stage.
Horticultural crops like peach, plum, almond, pear and citrus are at flowering stage.
No major pests and diseases were noticed.
Jammu & Kashmir

Dry weather
Harvesting and threshing of timely sown wheat.
Sowing of diancha for green maturing specifically in the fields where rice is to be taken during kharif.
Hoeing and weeding in summer pulse crops are in progress.
Summer pulses are at vegetative/flowering stage.
Berseem grown for seed is at seed development /physiological maturity stage.
Mild intensity of bacterial wilt in tomato crops were noticed.
Karnataka
North Karnataka

Hot and dry weather prevailed at many places.

Summer ploughing/backploughing are in progress.
Mild intensity of leaf minor in citrus.
Bacterial blight in pomegranate.
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11th May15

Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

Leaf curl in tomato were noticed.

South Karnataka

Moderate to high rainfall received.

Summer ploughing is progress for where, sufficient rainfall during last week.
Soil sampling for the soil nutrients available after harvest of crops.
Sowing of first crop is progress where double cropping system is followed in farmers.
Long duration crops like Redgram, Castor sowing is progressing.
Short duration crops like Seasamum, Cowpea, Balckgram and fodder maize sowing are in progress.
No major pests and diseases were noticed.
Kerala

Moderate to high rainfall received.

Weeding and mulching in nutmeg, arecanut and coconut plants are in progress.
First paddy crop is in transplanting stage.
Vegetables are in various stages.
Banana is in bunch initiation.
Situation of major pest and disease details are given below.
Mild intensity of case worm In rice.
Rhizome rot in ginger
Seed borne diseases in paddy.
Stem borer in cashew.
Madhya Pradesh

Hot weather prevailed

Summer deep ploughing, winnowing of wheat.
Irrigation in summer vegetables and pulse crops are in progress.
Moong and urd are in branching stage.
Okra is in flowering to fruiting stage.
Cowpea is in branching stage.
Mango & citrus are in fruiting stage.
Summer corn is in tasseling stage.
No major pests and diseases were noticed.
Odisha

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11th May15

Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

Dry weather.
Harvesting of summer rice, summer ploughing, sowing of green manuring crops, jute, irrigated maize.
Top dressing and irrigation to sugarcane.
Irrigation of colacasia.
Planting of tube rose.
Marigold & dahlia land preparation and sowing of vegetables like cucurbits and are in progress.
Summer rice is from maturity to harvest stage.
Sugarcane crop is at grand growth stage.
Summer groundnut, sunflower and sesame are at maturity to harvest stage.
Summer pulses like green and black gram are at harvesting stage.
Summer vegetables are in vegetative to fruiting stage.
Low intensity of fruit rot, fruit and shoot borer.
Wilt in brinjal, pod borer in pulses, thrips in chilliand fruit fly in cucurbits were noticed.
Punjab

Dry weather.
Cotton crop in the seedling stage.
Rice is at nursery stage.
No major pests and diseases were noticed.
Rajasthan

High velocity dust storm and rainfall in western part of state.

Hot and dry weather was observed in rest of the state.
Summer ploughing, Irrigation in summer crops.
Vegetables and fodder crops are in progress.
Green and black gram are at pod filling stage.
Fodder crop are at vegetative stage.
No major pests and diseases were noticed.
Tamil Nadu

Moderate rainfall received.

Harvesting of vegetables is in progress.
Banana is in fruit development to maturity stage.
Vegetables are in fruiting stage.
Chili is in fruiting stage and summer pulses are in maturity stage.
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11th May15

Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

Severe intensity of eriophyid mite

Rhinoceros beetle and red palm weevil in coconut.
Moderate intensity of dieback and fruit rot in chilli

Weather Outlook in This Week

26 May (Day 1):
Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions would prevail at many places over Odisha, Jharkhand and at a few places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh
Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha and at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Himachal
Pradesh, Punjab, Chhattisgarh and Gangetic West Bengal.
Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Thunderstorm accompanied with squall would occur at isolated places over Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic, West Bengal, interior Tamilnadu and
South Interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada.
Dust / thunderstorm accompanied with squall would occur at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
.
27 May (Day 2):
Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions would prevail at many places over Odisha. Heat wave conditions would prevail at a few places over Punjab,
Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Coastal Andra Pradesh and at isolated places over Uttarakhand,
Himachal Pradesh.
Thunderstorm accompanied with squall would occur at isolated places over Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and South Interior Karnataka.
28 May (Day 3):
Heat wave conditions would prevail at a few places over Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.
Thunderstorm accompanied with squall would occur at isolated places over Bihar, Jharkhand, Gengetic West Bengal and interior Tamilnadu.
Dust storm/ thunderstorm would occur at isolated places over Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi.
Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over South Interior Karnataka and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
29 May (Day 4):
Heat wave conditions would prevail at a few places over Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.
Thunderstorm accompanied with squall would occur at isolated places over Bihar.
Dust/thunderstorm accompanied with squall would occur at isolated places over Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi.
30 May (Day 5):
Heat wave conditions would prevail at a few places over Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.
Thunderstorm accompanied with squall would occur at isolated places over Bihar.
Dust/thunderstorm accompanied with squall would occur at isolated places over Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi.

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11th May15

Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 21.05.2015)

The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 91 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 157.80 billion
cubic meters (BCM), which is about 74% of total reservoir capacity in the country.
Water stock in 91 major reservoirs decreased to 44.79 BCM from the previous weeks level of 52.44 BCM. Current storage is lower than the last years
position of 44.89 BCM and more than the average of last 10 years storage of 33.22 BCM.
For 85 major reservoirs of the country

Period

Current Years Storage as % of FRL*

Current Years storage as % of last year

Current year as a % of 10 years average level

Current Week

28

100

135

Last Week

33

86

110

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 28% on 21/05/2014, 21% on 21/05/2013, 23% on 17/05/2012 and 26% on 19/05/2011.
* Live storage as % to Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 157.80 Billion Cub. Mts.(BCM)
Source: CWC

First Long Range Forecast For the 2015 Southwest Monsoon Season (June-September) Rainfall
Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall
over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
The probability forecasts for the Seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is given below:

Category
Deficient
Below Normal
Normal
Above Normal
Excess
Source: IMD

Rainfall Range (% of LPA)

< 90
90 - 96
96 -104
104 -110
> 110

Forecast
Probability (%)

Climatological
Probability (%)
33
35
28
3
1

16
17
33
16
17

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11th May15

Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

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Indian Weather Outlook

Level A Commodities

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