21 January 2014

RON exchange rate

Technical visit from IMF to start today

3.40

USD/RON (rhs)
EUR/RON

4.55

3.30

A technical mission from International Monetary Fund will visit Romania starting today for
the combined first and second reviews under the new precautionary SBA approved at the
end of Sep. 2013. The visit, which is planned to end on 5 Feb., will assess the
progresses made under the SBA, as well as implications on the budget plan for 2014

4.43
3.20

from postponing by three months the implementation of additional excise on fuels equal to
7 eurocents per litre. According to some government officials, the discussions might
include also measures aimed at stimulating consumption, the possibility of a zero

4.30

3.10
24-Dec

6-Jan

13-Jan

20-Jan

corporate tax rate for reinvested earnings and the reduction of social contributions paid
by employers (envisaged for July). Technical staffs from the European Commission and the

Source: Daily NBRs fixing

RON money market rates

World Bank join the IMF staff for specific review of policies under existing financial
programs which Romania has concluded with these institutions.

3.2%
2.9%
2.6%
2.3%
2.0%
1.7%
1.4%
1.1%
17-Dec

24-Dec

6-Jan

13-Jan

Robor 1M

20-Jan
Robor 3M

Robor 6M

Source: Daily NBRs fixing

Equity market
7500

33000
BET FI (rhs)
BET

7000

31000

6500

29000

6000

27000
13-Dec

20-Dec

6-Jan

13-Jan

20-Jan

Source: Bucharest Stock Exchange

P a g e |1

Romanian financial markets*

RON fixing
EUR
USD
CHF
JPY (100)
GBP
CAD
AUD
SEK
DKK
NOK
HUF(100)

1 day (%)
4.5374
0.16
3.3472
0.51
3.6780
3.2120
5.5045
3.0559
2.9492
0.5169
0.6081
0.5419
1.5051

Money market
ROBID ROBOR
O/N
0.51
1.01
1W
0.72
1.22
1M
0.95
1.45
3M
1.49
1.99
6M
1.93
2.68
9M
1.99
2.74
12M
2.02
2.77

4.6

3.7

4.5

3.6

4.4

3.5

4.3

3.4

4.2

3.3

5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%

4.1

3.2

USD/RON (rhs)
EUR/RON

4.0
29-Jul-13

22-Oct-13

1.0%
29-Jul-13

3.1

22-Oct-13

20-Jan-14

ROBOR 1W

20-Jan-14

ROBOR 1M

ROBOR 6M

*NBR fixings as of 20 Jan 2014 (13.00 local time)

Historical FX trends
1M
3M
6M
EUR/RON
1.6
1.9
2.6
USD/RON
3.2
2.9
-0.2
change in %; negative values= RON appreciation

1Y
4.1
2.5

Historical money market trends

1M
3M
ROBOR 1M
-0.5
-1.5
ROBOR 3M
-0.5
-1.2
ROBOR 6M
-0.3
-1.0
change in percentage points

YTD
1.2
2.8

6M
-3.1
-2.5
-2.1

1Y
-4.5
-4.0
-3.4

YTD
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3

International financial markets

FX market rates*

Euribor

Libor Usd

110

1 day (%)
EUR/USD

1.3556

GBP/USD
USD/CHF
USD/JPY

USD/JPY

0.14

O/N

1.6439

0.12

1W

0.221

0.1180

0.9113

-0.01

1M

0.240

0.1570

104.55

0.39

3M

0.302

0.2371

* 9.00 a.m local time

0.5%

1.43

EUR/USD (rhs)

0.359

0.0886

6M

0.408

0.3341

9M

0.497

n.a.

12M

0.570

0.5721

Libor Usd fixing on 20 Jan 2014

IRS 2Y

0.497

0.5220

Euribor fixing on 20 Jan 2014

IRS 5Y

1.140

1.7350

IRS rates on 20 Jan 2014 , 16.00

IRS 10Y

2.031

2.9350

0.4%

105
0.3%

1.35
100

0.2%

95

0.1%

1.26
90

0.0%
29-Jul-13

85

1.18
29-Jul

22-Oct

21-Jan

22-Oct-13

20-Jan-14

Euribor 1M

Euribor 6M

Libor Usd 1M

Libor Usd 6M

Raiffeisen Bank daily rates

FX quotations

Interest rates for corporations

TDY/TDY
EUR/RON
USD/RON
GBP/RON
CHF/RON

Bid
4.4850
3.2950
5.4350
3.6030

Ask
4.5950
3.4200
5.5800
3.7420

EXCHANGE HOUSE
Bid
4.4700
3.2900
5.4000
3.6000

Ask
4.6000
3.4250
5.6100
3.7450

TDY/TDY cross rates

EUR/USD
EUR/GBP
EUR/CHF
EUR/JPY

Bid
1.3114
0.8038
1.1986
138.43

Ask
1.3945
0.8454
1.2753
145.41

Raiffeisen Banks FX quotations as of 9.00 a.m. (local time); FX quotations may change during the
working day due to the market movements. For foreign exchange transactions, rates for amounts
greater than EUR 20,000 or equivalent are negotiable.

O/N
1W
2W
3W
1M
3M

RON
0.11
0.25
0.28
0.36
0.71
0.98

USD
0.19
0.57
0.58
0.59
1.36
1.44

EUR
0.41
0.73
0.78
0.79
1.39
1.50

CHF
0.09
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.49
0.72

GBP
0.47
0.72
0.72
0.73
1.23
1.27

Effective today
Min. amount: 5.000 units in each currency

Treasury sales phone: +40-21-306 19 91

P a g e |2

Local government bond market

Yields for RON gov securities
Yield (%,

Yield (%,

bid)
2.02
2.31
3.34
4.35
5.27

ask)
1.72
2.01
3.09
4.10
5.02

Tenor
6M
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y

RON yield curve

Dynamics of RON yields

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0
2.0

2.5

NBR's fixing on 20 Jan 2014

12.00 local time

1.0

1.5

12-Sep-13 13-Nov-13 20-Jan-14

6M

For trading RON government securities

you can contact our sales department
+40-21-306 19 91

1Y

3Y

Curent

5Y

10Y

1 month ago

6M

1Y

5Y

10Y

3Y

* yields to maturity (%, mid)

* yields to maturity (%, mid)

Auctions Calendar for RON government securities

Discount T-Bills

Benchmark T-Bonds

Tenor
Auction date (Months)

Amount (RON mn)

Intended

Effective

Avg

Max

Auction

Tenor

Yield

yield

date

(Years)

Cupon
(%) Amount (RON mn)
Intended

Effective

Avg

Max

Yield

yield

2-Dec-13
16-Dec-13

6
12

800
1100

800
1100

2.78
2.90

2.85
2.93

5-Dec-13
9-Dec-13
12-Dec-13
19-Dec-13

5.0
6.5
2.0
2.7

5.60
5.75
5.80
4.75

500
500
300
600

500
500
441
863

4.90
5.14
3.59
3.97

4.92
5.17
3.60
3.97

9-Jan-14
23-Jan-14

6
12

500
1000

1023

2.00

2.04

6-Jan-14
13-Jan-14
16-Jan-14
20-Jan-14
27-Jan-14

2.6
7.4
13.5
4.9
9.2

4.75
5.95
5.8
5.6
5.85

700
500
100
500
500

755
560
100
714

3.92
4.99
5.41
4.15

3.94
5.02
5.49
4.19

Romanian Eurobonds

Romania CDS
Bid

Ask yield

250

Currency

Maturity

Cupon

Bid price

Ask price

yield(%)

(%)

EUR

Mar-2015

5.00

103.97

104.37

1.48

1.14

EUR

Jun-2016

5.25

107.60

108.33

1.97

1.67

210

EUR

Jun-2018

6.50

114.98

115.29

2.83

2.76

190

EUR

Nov-2019

4.88

104.63

105.38

3.96

3.82

EUR

Sep-2020

4.63

105.00

106.00

3.76

3.59

USD

Feb-2022

6.75

114.60

115.23

4.56

4.47

USD

Feb-2023

4.38

95.25

98.25

5.01

4.60

230

170
179
150
28-Aug-13

6-Nov-13

20-Jan-14

RO 5-year CDS (USD)

Note: Yields and CDS quotation as of: 20 Jan 2014 (16.00 local time)
Source: Thomson Reuters

P a g e |3

Romanian equity markets: daily trading summary

Market trends

Most traded

Index

Company

Close-end investment funds

Close (RON)

Value

1D (%)

BET

6558.65

-0.02

BRD - GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. 9.15

BET C

3402.07

-0.13

SC FONDUL PROPRIETATEA SA - BUCURESTI

0.82

BET FI

31923.35

-0.60

S.N.G.N. ROMGAZ S.A.

ROTX

13412.06

-0.29

1430.92

0.03

Rasdaq-C

-1.0
0.2

34.00

0.3

OMV PETROM S.A.

0.49

0.6

BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.

1.70

1.2

BSE turnover (EUR mn)

Close (RON)

1D (%)

Fd. Propr.

0.82

0.2

SIF 1

1.39

1.5

SIF 2

1.50

0.9

SIF 3

0.69

1.0

SIF 4

0.94

1.6

SIF 5

2.05

1.7

End of day values as of: 20 Jan 2014, 18.00 local time.

8.9

BSE market capitalisation (EUR mn)

Company

1D (%)

31.6

Historical performance
1Y

YTD

BET

Index

5.3

9.2

20.8

17.8

1.0

BET C

4.9

7.9

17.3

13.0

1.7

BET FI

6.8

19.4

30.9

19.5

2.0

7500

32000

ROTX

8.1

11.9

25.5

19.6

3.6

7000

30000

Rasdaq-C

4.4

4.9

2.4

-1.5

4.7
6500
6000

Index

1M

1M

BET EUR

3.6

BET-C EUR
BET FI EUR

3M

3M

6M

6M

8500

YTD

13.8

-0.2

5500
5000

18.3

3.2

6.0

14.9

9.2

0.5

5.0

17.4

28.2

15.5

0.8

BET

8000

1Y

7.3

6800

RON mn
400

6600

300

6400

200

28000

6200

100

26000

6000

36000
BET FI (rhs)
34000

24000
22000
6-Sep-13

8-Nov-13

20-Jan-14

13Dec

20Dec

6-Jan

13Jan

20Jan

BET dynamics and BSE trading volume

(rhs, bars)

End of day values as of: 20 Jan 2014, 18.00 local time.

Daily news on capital markets (Raiffeisen Capital & Investment Research)

RO Banks (BRD RO, TLV RO): Romanian banks generated a cumulated net profit of RON 270 mn in October and November neutral (Ziarul Financiar)

Total net profit for the banking sector in the first eleven months of 2013 was RON 1.73 bn; net profit for the first nine months was RON 1.46 bn;

We are inclined to view this slight deceleration of net profit as neutral for the two listed banks given the high pressures from the Central Bank to
increase provisions.
Alexandru Combei +40 21 306 1239 alexandru.combei@raiffeisen.ro

Fondul Proprietatea (FP RO): Five syndicates submitted offers for Hidroelectricas IPO neutral (Ziarul Financiar)

As rumored yesterday, five syndicates, comprising top tier investment banks, have submitted offers for the IPO of Hidroelecytrica: (i) Raiffeisen Capital
& Investment and Morgan Stanley, (ii) BCR, Erste Bank and Goldman Sachs, (iii) Wood, NBG Securities, BT Securities, Swiss Capital and Citigroup,
(iv) BRD -GSG, SocGen and JP Morgan and finally (v) UniCredit, Alpha Bank, Intercapital , Broker Cluj and Deutsche Bank;

Our latest valuation of Hidroelectrica from our update on FP was RON 5.6 bn while FP has recently upgraded its valuation for the power generator at
RON 11.2 bn.
Alexandru Combei +40 21 306 1239 alexandru.combei@raiffeisen.ro

P a g e |4

Mutual Funds managed by Raiffeisen Asset Management

Assets under
Inception
month

Raiffeisen
Raiffeisen
Raiffeisen
Raiffeisen
Raiffeisen
Raiffeisen
Raiffeisen
Raiffeisen
Raiffeisen

Prosper
Benefit
Romania Actiuni
Confort
RonPlus
RonFlexi
EuroPlus (in EUR)
DolarPlus (in USD)
Confort Euro (in EUR)

Jun
Jun
Aug
Sep
Sep
Jun
Oct
Oct
Oct

Performance (%)

management Net Asset Value per

2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2011
2009
2010
2013

Year on year

Year to date

(RON mn)*

unit (NAV)

(yoy)

(ytd)

20.21
13.66
15.21
99.36
2,043.37
516.63
360.32
72.10
9.64

97.6659
142.7268
40.3834
150.9485
159.3713
116.0173
117.4719
1106.9491
27.0183

1.1
9.4
18.2
7.3
6.3
5.5
3.4
3.1
n.a.

1.0
0.7
2.5
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.3

NAV as of:

17 Jan 2014

* EUR mn for Raiffeisen EuroPlus and Confort Euro, and USD mn for Raiffeisen DolarPlus
For further details please visit www.raiffeisenfonduri.ro

110

41

155

Raiffeisen RO Actiuni (rhs)

Raiffeisen Confort

Raiffeisen Prosper

Raiffeisen Benefit

100

37

90

23-Sep-13

18-Nov-13

120

17-Jan-14

Raiffeisen RonPlus
160

119

155

116

150

112

135

29
23-Jul-13

123
Raiffeisen Ron Flexi (rhs)

145

33

80

165

125
23-Jul-13

23-Sep-13

18-Nov-13

17-Jan-14

145

108
23-Jul-13

23-Sep-13

18-Nov-13

17-Jan-14

1150
Raiffeisen DolarPlus (rhs)
Raiffeisen EuroPlus

115

1100

110

1050
23-Jul-13

23-Sep-13

18-Nov-13

17-Jan-14

P a g e |5

Editor:

Raiffeisen RESEARCH Romania

Research team:

Ionut Dumitru Chief Economist,

+40-21-306-1269

Nicolae Covrig Financial Analyst,

+40-21-306-1262

Gabriel Bobeica - Financial Analyst,

+40-21-306-1369

Released on:

21 January 2014

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P a g e |6