Monday, June 1, 2015

MEMO: GEORGIA VOTERS WANT CONGRESS TO PASS TRADE BILL

TO:
FROM:
RE:

Main Street Growth & Opportunity Coalition and Interested Parties

Cory Brown, VP - Data & Strategy
Issue Survey of Likely Georgia Voters About the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA)

Cygnal conducted a statewide telephone survey in Georgia last week on behalf of the Main Street
Growth & Opportunity Coalition. The goal was to examine the current state of public opinion of likely
general election voters concerning the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) being debated in the House.
KEY FINDINGS
A majority (50%) of Georgia voters disapprove of the job Georgia members of Congress are
doing to improve the economy and create jobs.
A plurality (46%) approves of the job Georgia members of Congress are doing to improve the
economy and create jobs. Only 24% approve of the overall job Congress is doing.
Georgians overwhelmingly support the federal Trade Promotion Authority legislation. 76%
believe TPA will potentially increase trade exports and create more Georgia jobs.
Republican voters say they are 59% more likely to vote for a member of Congress who
supported the TPA legislation.
In a red state where President Obama does not have very high approval ratings, 75% of
respondents agree that a president - regardless of party - should have the authority to
negotiate trade agreements pending congressional approval, which is a core tenet of TPA.
A strong majority of Republicans (66%) are supportive of giving the president the authority
to negotiate trade agreements as TPA provides.
64% of Democrat voters believe that free trade agreements between the U.S. and other
countries have been a good thing for the United States.
Despite the contentious national debate surrounding TPA, 67% of respondents with a high
propensity to vote believe Congress should renew Trade Promotion Authority.
SUMMARY
Georgia voters regardless of party, age, or geography intensely support the Trade Promotion
Authority currently being debated in the US House. Considering the strong Republican bent of the
state, it is powerful to see such a broad desire to provide trade negotiation authority to the president.
These results show that Georgia voters want their congressmen to vote for TPA and create jobs.
METHODOLOGY
This telephone survey was conducted May 28-30, 2015 with 500 likely Georgia general election
voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.38%. Interviews were conducted using IVR technology to
landlines and live operator to cell phones. Landline interviews constituted 73% of the calls, while 27%
were conducted by cell phone.
Cygnal is a national communication and research firm. During the 2014 cycle, the firm conducted over 160 highly accurate polls in 12
states. While the national average for public polling in 2014 a rough year for polls was an 8-point difference in survey results
versus Election Day results, Cygnals was only a 2-point difference, less than half its polls average margin of error.

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing

Conducted May 28-30, 2015
n=500 | (4.38%)

Q 1: How likely are you to vote in next year's presidential election?

Total

Total

500

Definitely

471
94.3%

Probably

29
5.7%

Q 2: Do you approve or disapprove of the overall job Congress is doing?

Total

Total
Approve

Strongly approve

500
120
24.1%
29
5.8%

Somewhat
approve

91
18.3%

Disapprove

359
71.7%

Somewhat
disapprove

141
28.3%

Strongly
disapprove

217
43.5%

Unsure

21
4.2%

Q 3: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Georgia members of Congress are doing to improve the economy and create jobs?
Total

Total
Approve

Strongly approve

500
229
45.7%
49
9.8%

Somewhat
approve

180
36.0%

Disapprove

252
50.4%

Somewhat
disapprove

138
27.6%

Strongly
disapprove

114
22.8%

Unsure

19
3.9%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Q 4: Do you believe Congress should renew Trade Promotion Authority if it would help create Georgia jobs and support the U.S.
economy?
Total

Total

500

Yes

298
59.7%

No

123
24.5%

Unsure

79
15.8%

Q 5: Do you support the Trade Promotion Authority legislation that could potentially increase trade exports and create more Georgia
jobs?
Total

Total

500

Support

380
76.0%

Strongly support

213
42.6%

Mostly support

167
33.4%

Disagree

75
15.0%

Mostly disagree

50
10.1%

Strongly disagree

25
4.9%

Unsure

45
9.0%

Q 6: Do you agree or disagree that a president - regardless of party - should have the authority to negotiate trade agreements
pending congressional approval?
Total

Total

500

Agree

373
74.7%

Strongly agree

214
42.7%

Mostly agree

160
31.9%

Disagree

103
20.7%

Mostly disagree

58
11.6%

Strongly disagree

45
9.1%

Unsure

23
4.7%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Q 7: Would you be more or less likely to support a member of Congress who voted for the Trade Promotion Authority legislation
discussed in this survey?
Total

Total

500

More likely

314
62.8%

Much more likely

123
24.6%

Somewhat more
likely

191
38.2%

Less likely

108
21.5%

Somewhat less
likely

64
12.9%

Much less likely

43
8.7%

Undecided

78
15.7%

Q 8: In general, do you think that free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a good thing or a bad thing
for the United States?
Total

Total

500

Good thing

315
63.0%

Very good thing

105
21.0%

Somewhat good
thing

210
42.0%

Bad thing

130
25.9%

Somewhat bad
thing

84
16.9%

Very bad thing

45
9.0%

Undecided

55
11.1%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Q 9: Supporters of the TPA trade legislation say it will add more jobs to our economy, end gridlock, and protect America's interests.
Does this make you more or less likely to support Congress' approval of the trade bill?
Total

Total

500

More likely

315
62.9%

Much more likely

119
23.9%

Somewhat more
likely

195
39.0%

Less likely

100
19.9%

Somewhat less
likely

61
12.2%

Much less likely

39
7.7%

Makes no
difference

Unsure

57
11.4%

29
5.7%

Q 10: Opponents of the TPA trade legislation say it will give a president too much authority and keep details of trade agreements
secret until Congress votes on them. Does this make you more or less likely to support Congress' approval of the trade bill?
Total

Total

500

More likely

190
38.0%

Much more likely

77
15.3%

Somewhat more
likely

113
22.7%

Less likely

220
44.0%

Somewhat less
likely

134
26.8%

Much less likely

86
17.2%

Makes no
difference

56
11.1%

Unsure

34
6.9%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Q 11: What age range do you fall within?

Total

Total

500

18-34

90
17.9%

35-49

134
26.8%

50-64

158
31.7%

65 or older

118
23.6%

Gender
Total

Total

500

Female

277
55.5%

Male

223
44.5%

Media Market
Total

Total

500

Atlanta Metro

168
33.6%

Rest of Atlanta

187
37.5%

Augusta/Macon/C
olumbus

73
14.6%

Albany/Savannah

51
10.2%

Dothan/Tallahasse
e/Jacksonville

20
4.0%

Race
Total

Total

500

White

281
56.2%

Black

153
30.7%

Other

66
13.1%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Party
Total

Total

500

Democrat

150
30.0%

Non-Partisan

157
31.3%

Republican

193
38.7%

Congressional District
Total

Total

500

36
7.2%

33
6.7%

47
9.5%

56
11.2%

21
4.3%

37
7.5%

34
6.8%

39
7.8%

37
7.4%

10

26
5.2%

11

35
7.0%

12

26
5.2%

13

38
7.5%

14

34
6.8%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Q 17: Voter Propensity

Total

Total

500

Highest

179
35.9%

High

137
27.3%

Average

86
17.3%

Low

98
19.5%

Phone Type
Total

Total

500

Landline

364
72.8%

Cell

136
27.2%