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EQUITY MARKETS WEEKLY
UKRAINE, KYIV
FEBRUARY 9, 2010
RESEARCH@ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
+38 (044) 490‐51‐85
World Equity Indices
UX defends its levels
Index Country WOW,% MTD,% YTD,%
Dow Jones Indus. USA -1,04
World market’s sentiment was very poor last week – US S&P 500 lost 0.79%
-1,04 -1,58
S&P 500 USA -0,89 reaching 1066.19 points, pan European DJ Euro Stoxx 50 slid down 5.23%,
-0,89 -1,60
Nasdaq Comp USA -0,70 -0,70 -0,99
S&P Asia 50 dropped 2.81%, Japanese Nikkei ‐ 1.38%, Shanghai Composite –
DAX30 Germany 0,93 0,93 -2,21
FTSE-100 Great Britain 0,62
1.67%. Russian MICEX also has shown 3.61% decline coming near 1355.64
0,62 -1,85
NIKKEI-225 Japan -1,05 points following world exchanges and oil prices.
-1,05 -2,41
RTS Russia -2,54 -2,54 -6,68
On this basis Ukrainian indices are surprising with resistance to the fall. Last
WSE WIG Poland -0,44 -0,44 -6,79
Prague Stock Ex. Czech Repub -0,14
week UX shown moderate decline by 0.73% forming Doji candle on the
-0,14 -7,13
PFTS Ukraine 0,31 weekly chart (see figure 1), which usually signs the end of the previous trend.
0,31 -0,22
UX Ukraine -0,45 -0,45 -1,18
Trading volume is about UAH178.5 mn (‐14.7% w/w). The weekly chart also
shows the growth unsupported by oscillator RSI, and index can't turn back to
Commodities and Currencies the long‐term uptrend as it is limited with 50% correction from the highs of
the beginning of 2008. On the intraday chart (chart 2) we observe a strong
DTD,% WTD,% MTD,% YTD,%
local support level at 1628 points (October 2009 high), the pressure is sprung
Gold 1,50 1,50 ‐2,84 21,28
Brent Crude Oil 0,98 0,98 ‐3,41 17,97
by the long‐term line R1. In general market pattern hasn’t changed as well as
EUR/USD 0,12 0,12 ‐1,58 ‐1,98 our bearish sentiment.
Despite Ukrainian stocks remain undervalued investors don’t hurry to bring
money fro a long‐term period. The ascent of Ukrainian market is explained by
Currency Exchange Rate a number of corporate news. Among the latest are conflict settlement
between Bank Forum shareholders (FORM +18.55%).
880
UAH/100 USD We consider Forum shares still obtaining upside for growth as parties are
860 likely to agree but it will become known only on March 4. The potential
additional share issue may follow at face value UAH10 while Yurushev
840 conceivably sold his shares by UAH11‐12.
Motor Sich (MSICH +4.42%) remained another market shank after strong
820
financial results had been published last week (net income exceeded our
800
estimates amounting UAH720 mn). Investors don’t intend to sell company’s
shares expecting to receive dividends as additional bonus.
Official echange rate
780
Interbank (bid)
Alchevsk Iron&Steel (ALMK ‐4.41%) also has good prospects – in February
Interbank (ask) plant intends to increase output by 10% m/m. It has already restarted blast
760 furnace №4, which had been stopped earlier and in the third ten‐day period
16.09.2009 16.10.2009 16.11.2009 16.12.2009 16.01.2010
of February blast furnace №3 is expected to be restarted. It evidences that
company has enough raw materials and while demand for Ukrainian steel is
UX Index increasing ALMK has good opportunities to grow its production. Besides, the
support is provided by Vnesheconombank intension to purchase ISD’s part of
80 1800
Volume, mln UX debts. The exact amount is unknown but it is close to $1bn.
70
UAH
1575 Good news also appeared in chemical sector. Nitric fertilizer producers are
aimed at external markets, where prices hit their records after crisis
60 1350 downturn (see chart 3). «Carbamide is bought with enthusiasm. Russian
50 1125
producers don’t keep pace with saturating it and make agreements with
Ukrainian plants», — reported the representative of trading company to
40 900 Ukrainian journalists. Ammonium nitrate and carbamide brings $50‐80 of net
income from 1 tone.
30 675
However, this optimism is restrained by the panic on foreign markets
20 450 provoked by PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), whose CDS are
continuing to grow forcing world investors exit euro assets. As the result –
10 225
euro weakening and US dollar strengthening on the Forex. Strong dollar drags
0 0 the decreasing of commodities and presses the Russian market, with which
we correlate very tight. The following week we will watch PIIGS and euro
02.04.2009
24.04.2009
20.05.2009
11.06.2009
03.07.2009
24.07.2009
14.08.2009
07.09.2009
28.09.2009
19.10.2009
09.11.2009
30.11.2009
21.12.2009
15.01.2010
more attentively.
Good luck!
Stanislav Zelenetskiy zelenetskiy@art‐capital.com.ua
EQUITY MARKETS WEEKLY
UKRAINE, KYIV
FEBRUARY 9, 2010
RESEARCH@ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
+38 (044) 490‐51‐85
Most liquid shares
Average
Ticker Price, WOW,% MTD,% YTD,%
ALMK 0,21 0,72 0,72 52,85
AVDK 11,54 -0,43 -0,43 9,38
AZST 3,40 0,44 0,44 25,74
BAVL 0,27 -0,37 -0,37 7,70
CEEN 10,20 0,99 0,99 7,37
ENMZ 206,90 -0,14 -0,14 22,44
FORM 8,55 0,59 0,59 42,50
MSICH 1889,99 -0,53 -0,53 14,61
SMASH 69,50 -0,50 -0,50 24,78
STIR 50,75 1,48 1,48 6,17
UNAF 186,00 -2,11 -2,11 10,36
USCB 0,37 0,14 0,14 5,08
UTLM 0,44 -1,31 -1,31 -0,20
YASK 3,95 -0,50 -0,50 25,80
ZAEN 333,08 -0,26 -0,26 1,30
Top Gainers, Losers, Most Actively Traded (25.01.10)
Most Actively Traded, UAH ths
AVDK 1200,1
UNAF 1768,9
ENMZ 1865,4
ALMK 2068,1
AZST 2226,2
Top Gainers, UAH ths
LTPL 0,7%
HRTR 0,7%
CEEN 1,0%
STIR 1,5%
SGOK 10,5%
Top Losers, UAH ths
KRAZ 2,6%
MTBD 2,9%
NVTR 3,2%
PGOK 3,2%
KVBZ 4,8%
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly February 9, 2010
Charts
Chart 1. UX‐Index, Weekly
Chart 2. UX‐Index, Daily
WWW.ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly February 9, 2010
Charts
Chemical Fertilizer Prices, $/mt
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
9
0
0
1
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
1
1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
08
12
19
23
04
09
13
17
22
26
07
Carbamide (FOB Black Sea Spot) Ammonia (FOB Black Sea Spot)
Ammonium Nitrate (FOB Black Sea Spot)
Chart 3. Chemical fertilizer pri
WWW.ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly February 9, 2010
World Indices’ Dynamic
Developed Market Equities 5 Days,% 1 Month,% 3 Month,% 6 Month,% 9 Month,% 1 Year,%
World Market Capitalization 4,90 ‐0,40 5,11 15,83 36,80 55,76
Dow Jones Indus. USA ‐3,53 ‐6,68 ‐3,30 5,84 18,93 26,21
S&P 500 USA ‐3,69 ‐7,71 ‐3,32 5,06 18,33 27,80
Nasdaq Comp USA ‐2,96 ‐8,25 ‐1,16 6,37 25,86 38,56
DJ EuroStoxx 50 Europe ‐5,00 ‐11,72 ‐6,73 ‐0,89 13,20 21,46
FTSE‐100 Great Britain ‐3,06 ‐7,99 ‐2,64 7,96 16,73 23,16
DAX‐30 Germany ‐3,30 ‐9,16 ‐2,29 2,52 15,75 25,61
Swiss Market Index Switzerland ‐3,15 ‐4,09 ‐0,34 6,45 18,42 25,00
Nikkei‐225 Japan ‐4,35 ‐7,84 0,82 ‐4,63 9,44 28,41
Hang Seng Hong Kong ‐5,65 ‐12,32 ‐12,20 ‐4,33 18,19 45,30
Emerging Market Equities
S&P Asia 50 Asia ‐4,76 ‐10,48 ‐5,34 3,75 21,84 51,70
CSI 300 China ‐2,47 ‐9,46 ‐10,07 ‐7,25 12,83 27,97
SENSEX India ‐3,40 ‐9,15 ‐3,07 6,09 34,22 71,25
KOSPI South Korea ‐3,85 ‐8,40 ‐1,87 ‐0,80 12,44 32,10
TAIEX Taiwan ‐4,40 ‐12,86 ‐4,97 4,59 13,38 57,17
New Europe Blue Chip (€) Europe ‐7,19 ‐8,05 ‐6,41 4,46 28,52 61,61
MICEX Russia ‐7,61 ‐3,49 ‐0,05 21,70 32,13 85,70
RTS Russia ‐8,75 ‐4,80 ‐4,29 34,16 47,55 125,72
WIG Poland ‐6,93 ‐8,76 ‐6,38 6,00 27,38 63,83
Prague Stock Ex. Czechia ‐6,93 ‐5,57 ‐5,54 ‐1,98 23,49 56,34
PFTS Ukraine ‐1,82 6,34 ‐1,25 42,74 53,50 148,10
S&P Latin America 40 ($) South America ‐6,31 ‐16,53 ‐12,08 7,39 30,79 55,24
BOVESPA Brazil ‐5,89 ‐10,12 ‐4,75 11,60 27,72 50,93
BOLSA Mexico ‐2,04 ‐6,82 ‐0,45 9,09 30,95 57,01
Bonds
USA Treasuries USA 0,00 0,00 0,00 2,22 ‐1,13 ‐0,84
EMU Bonds Europe 0,49 1,43 2,08 3,44 7,13 7,56
UK Gilts Great Britain ‐0,23 0,60 ‐1,71 ‐1,89 ‐4,90 ‐3,78
UA Bonds Ukraine ‐3,19 ‐1,80 9,88 2,46 16,30 116,12
Commodities
Gold ‐5,07 ‐7,03 ‐4,37 10,88 13,78 11,63
Oil (Brent) ‐7,52 ‐14,54 ‐11,99 ‐6,81 9,35 30,36
Currency
EUR/USD ‐1,67 ‐5,07 ‐8,59 ‐3,81 0,44 7,09
USA Euro area Japan China Germany Britain Brazil Poland Czechia Russia Ukraine
S&P 500 DJ EuroStoxx 50 Nikkei‐225 CSI 300 DAX‐30 FTSE‐100 BOVESPA WIG Prague SE MICEX PFTS
Change from 52w high, % ‐8,15 ‐12,48 ‐9,55 ‐16,67 ‐10,00 ‐9,07 ‐11,14 ‐10,52 ‐10,83 ‐10,08 ‐4,42
Change from 52w low, % 58,48 50,91 41,47 50,87 52,83 47,15 76,79 83,29 80,06 122,49 217,65
Price‐earnings ratio, P/E 18,14 18,63 n/a 26,00 28,81 38,35 19,43 n/a 29,59 19,49 n/a
Price‐sales ratio, P/S 1,24 0,77 0,66 2,44 0,66 1,20 1,73 0,90 1,57 1,39 0,66
Price‐book ratio, P/BV 2,09 1,28 1,32 3,08 1,43 1,83 1,93 1,40 1,41 1,21 1,41
Divident yields 12M, % 2,18 4,20 1,59 1,42 3,75 3,55 3,33 2,39 5,39 1,57 0,03
WWW.ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly February 9, 2010
Quotations
Close WOW,% MTD,% YTD,% P/E EV/S
UNAF Ukrnafta 186,0 ‐2,1 ‐13,1 10,4 121,2 1,0
UTLM Ukrtelecom 0,4 ‐1,3 ‐2,0 ‐0,2 38,6 1,5
Banks
BAVL Raiffeizen Bank Aval 0,3 ‐0,4 1,1 7,7 4,2 4,4
FORM Bank Forum 8,6 0,6 19,2 42,5 n/a 4,4
USCB Ukrsotsbank 0,4 0,1 ‐0,7 5,1 16,1 n/a
RODB Rodovid Bank 50,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,5 n/a
Electricity
CEEN Centerenergo 10,2 1,0 1,5 7,4 47,1 1,1
DNEN Dniproenergo 670,0 0,0 0,6 ‐2,2 371,6 1,3
DOEN Donbasenergo 60,9 0,7 ‐0,7 10,7 32,0 0,8
ZAEN Zakhidenergo 333,1 ‐0,3 0,9 1,3 107,1 1,1
Electricity
DNON Dniprooblenergo 271,0 0,0 0,0 ‐3,2 20,3 0,2
HAON Kharkivoblenergo 2,7 0,0 ‐5,9 ‐14,3 n/a 0,2
KIEN Kievenergo 11,2 0,0 0,0 ‐0,4 37,2 0,4
KREN Krymenergo 2,9 0,0 0,0 ‐10,8 10,0 0,4
Steel
AZST Azovstal 3,4 0,4 0,7 25,7 29,0 n/a
ALMK Alchevsk Iron&Steel 0,2 0,7 ‐3,7 52,8 18,9 0,4
DMKD DMK Dzerzhynskogo 0,6 1,9 7,8 27,9 2,0 n/a
DMZP DMP Petrovskogo 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a 0,4
DNSS Dniprospetsstal 1625,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 43,8 1,0
ENMZ Enakievo Steel 206,9 ‐0,1 ‐1,5 22,4 10,1 0,1
KSTL Mittal Steel Kriviy Righ 13,3 0,0 2,3 30,4 38,0 1,9
MMKI Mariupol Illych Iron & Steel 3,0 ‐1,6 ‐2,3 25,0 143,0 0,1
Tubes
DTRZ Dnipropetrovsk TW 114,0 0,0 0,0 1,8 n/a n/a
HRTR Khartsyzsk TW 1,4 0,7 ‐2,9 3,0 121,2 1,0
NITR Nizhnyodneprovsky Tubes 10,0 21,1 0,0 ‐8,2 121,2 1,0
NVTR Novomoskovsk Tubes 2,4 ‐3,2 0,8 14,3 121,2 1,0
Iron ore
CGOK Central Mining 3,7 0,0 4,3 28,1 n/a n/a
PGOK Poltava Mining 30,0 ‐3,2 ‐0,8 9,1 41,1 0,7
SGOK Pivnichny Mining 5,7 10,5 27,9 59,8 n/a n/a
Coke
AVDK Avdeevka Coke 11,5 ‐0,4 0,3 9,4 2,6 0,1
ALKZ Alchevsk Coke 0,4 0,0 11,1 17,6 16,5 n/a
ZACO Zaporizhya Coke 1,5 0,0 11,1 ‐11,8 13,6 0,0
YASK Yasinovka Coke 4,0 ‐0,5 ‐1,0 25,8 8,6 0,0
Engineerin
AVTO Ukravto 120,0 0,0 2,6 ‐4,0 n/a 0,3
AZGM Azovzagalmash 8,5 0,0 ‐22,7 ‐46,9 n/a 0,4
DGRM Donetskgormash 0,3 0,0 ‐3,0 ‐3,0 n/a 0,9
HMBZ Svitlo Shahtarya 0,3 0,0 0,0 ‐41,7 n/a n/a
KVBZ Kriukov Car Building 23,8 ‐4,8 8,4 39,2 34,3 0,3
LTPL Luganskteplovoz 2,8 0,7 0,7 8,6 395,7 0,4
LUAZ LUAZ 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,6 0,8
MSICH Motor Sich 1890,0 ‐0,5 3,9 14,6 8,7 n/a
MZVM Mariupol Heavy Engineering 26,1 ‐2,4 ‐3,3 4,5 116,4 0,3
SMASH Sumy Frunze Machinery 69,5 ‐0,5 0,1 24,8 19,9 0,9
SNEM Nasosenergomash 5,0 0,0 29,9 38,9 n/a n/a
SVGZ Stakhanovsk Car Building 4,2 ‐2,6 5,3 49,6 81,7 0,3
Others
DNSH Dniproshina 16,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a 0,9
KFTP Kriukovka Cellulose & Paper 32,5 0,0 0,0 ‐4,3 7,7 0,4
MTBD Mostobud 364,0 ‐2,9 ‐2,9 0,8 187,6 0,3
SHCHZ Mine Krasnoarmeyskaya 5,2 ‐0,4 6,1 16,0 22,8 n/a
SHKD Mine Komsomolets Donbasa 4,5 0,0 0,0 ‐10,0 n/a n/a
STIR Stirol 50,8 1,5 ‐0,3 6,2 42,9 0,1
ZABR Zaporizhya Abrasives 1,1 0,0 0,0 6,0 1,4 1,2
ZALK Zaporizhya Alluminum 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a
ZFER Zaporizhya Ferroalloys 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 20,0 n/a
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www.art‐capital.com.ua
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research@art‐capital.com.ua
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Analyst
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Sales & Trading Department
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Head of Sales Department
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Oleg Kirieiev, MBA (ESCP‐EAP) Valeriy Dobrovolski
International Sales and Trading / Analyst International Sales and Trading
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Investment manager Trader
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Investment manager Investment manager
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