For Immediate Release—Full Poll Results

February 2, 2010 (5pm)

Contact: Brian Robert Calfano, Ph.D., Poll Director

E-mail: briancalfano@missouristate.edu

Phone: 417-836-8574

Cell: 940-300-8083

Website: http://faculty.missouristate.edu/b/briancalfano/

The Missouri State University Poll is conducted in affiliation with the

following:
Missouri State University Department of Political Science

http://polsci.missouristate.edu

Center for Social Sciences and Public Policy Research

http://socantcrim.missouristate.edu/cssppr.htm

Missouri State University Office of Citizenship and Service-Learning

http://www.missouristate.edu/casl

1
 About The Missouri State University Poll, February 1, 2010
The Missouri State University Poll was conducted from January 16th to 31st, with a scientifically selected
random call sample using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) of 880 Missouri residents. The poll was
conducted through the Center for Social Sciences and Public Policy Research on the campus of
Missouri State University, under the supervision of poll director Brian Calfano, Ph.D.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between
interviewing everyone in a population (e.g., Missouri residents), versus a scientific sampling drawn
from that population. The sampling error for the Missouri resident sample of 880 adults is +/- 3.3
percent, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Therefore, if 50 percent of Missouri residents favored a
particular position, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 46.7 and
53.3 percent, had all Missouri residents been interviewed. Sampling error does not take into account
other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question
wording, or contextual effects.

Survey results were weighted according to the following variables: age, sex, race/ethnicity, income,
and education level. An iterative weighting algorithm was used in the process. Using weights helps to
ensure that poll respondents are reflective of the Missouri population more generally (as determined
by U.S. Census data). This is especially important concerning the age variable, as younger Missouri
residents are more likely to have cell phone numbers only, which are not covered by standard RDD
procedures. These results should be viewed as a general public opinion survey of Missouri residents
during the time the poll was in the field.

Executive Summary—MO Government and Taxation

Poll results suggest that Missourians give generally favorable ratings to the job that Gov. Jay Nixon
and the Missouri Legislature are doing in regard to state spending. Interestingly, and likely
because Nixon has wielded the budgetary ax several times during his first year in office, a majority
of Republicans polled were found to be on the fence concerning the governor’s
performance. This suggests that while state Republicans would like to deny the governor a positive
approval rating, they find it hard to argue against what has been a fiscally conservative
performance to date. Results for the state legislature are less surprising, and generally breakdown
along party lines.

The other major substantive poll question contained in this report regards Missourians’ reaction
to the “Fair Tax” plan. Note that the question did not ask about the proposed constitutional
amendment that is being considered by the legislature. Instead, it asked for respondent reaction to
the basic mechanism behind the tax plan—the removal of state personal and corporate income
taxes that would be replaced with a broadened sales tax. The surprising finding regards the
majority of state Republicans lacking an opinion on the proposal. Hence, there may be greater
potential for the plan’s proponents and opponents to sway state Republicans on the “Fair Tax” than
conventional wisdom would assume.

2
Public Opinion on Gov. Nixon’s Handling of State Spending by Political Party (Weighted
Data)1

Survey Question: Please tell me if you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way
Missouri Governor Jay Nixon is handling state spending.

Responses: “Approve”, “Disapprove”, “Neither/nor” (“Not Sure” responses are not included)

Nixon & State Spending Approve Disapprove Neither /nor

Respondent Demographics (N = 880)
Democrat 60.1% 4.8% 32.6%
Republican 20.1% 9.4% 69.8%
Other Party 23.3% 46.6% 24.3%
Missouri Residents Overall 39.7% 17.8% 39.4%

Public Opinion on Legislature’s Handling of State Spending by Political Party (Weighted

Data)

Survey Question: Please tell me if you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the
way the Missouri Legislature in Jefferson City is handling state spending.

Responses: “Approve”, “Disapprove”, “Neither/nor” (“Not Sure” responses are not included)

Legislature & State Spending Approve Disapprove Neither /nor

Respondent Demographics (N = 880)
Democrat 49.5% 13.4% 34.5%
Republican 53.4% 17.6% 26.4%
Other Party 43.4% 23.3% 29.1%
Residents Overall 48% 17.5% 31.4%

1 Since the poll was conducted over the time period that included Gov. Nixon’s State of the State address, it is possible
that responses to the spending questions may have changed as a result. In order to assess this possibility, the respondent
sample was divided between completed poll interviews both before (N = 154) and after (N =726) the address. No
statistical differences in question response were detected between the pre and post address respondents.

3
Public Opinion on “Fair Tax” Proposal for Missouri by Political Party (Weighted Data)

Survey Question: Please rate your level of agreement with the following statement: Missouri personal
and corporate income taxes should be replaced by a sales tax on almost all goods and services sold in the
state.

Responses: “Strongly agree”, “Agree”, “Neither agree nor disagree”, “Disagree”, “Strongly disagree”
(“Not Sure” responses are not included)

“Fair Tax” Proposal Strongly Agree Neither Disagree Strongly

Agree Disagree
Respondent Demographics (N = 880)
Democrat 1.6% 22.7% 24.3% 34.2% 11.2%
Republican 6.0% 9.4% 54.4% 13.4% 7.4%
Other Party 2.1% 41.6% 11.6% 21.1% 15.3%
Residents Overall 2.9% 24.9% 27.1% 25.6% 11.9%

Public Opinion on Missouri’s Economic Future by Political Party (Weighted Data)

Survey Question: Now, looking ahead, do you think that, a year from now, you and your family will be
better off financially than you are now, worse off, or about the same as you are now?

Responses: “Better off”, “About the same”, “Worse off”

Missouri’s Economic Future Better off About the same Worse off
Respondent Demographics (N = 880)
Democrat 48.4% 46.5% 3.2%
Republican 14.1% 65.8% 20.1%
Other Party 10.1% 68.3% 19.6%
Residents Overall 29% 57.9% 11.6%

4
Public Opinion on Missouri’s Economic Future by Annual Income (Weighted Data)

Survey Question: Now, looking ahead, do you think that, a year from now, you and your family will be
better off financially than you are now, worse off, or about the same as you are now?

Responses: “Better off”, “About the same”, “Worse off”

Missouri’s Economic Future Better off About the same Worse off
Respondent Demographics (N = 880)
> $35,000 12.9% 65.2% 18.7%
$35-50,000 46.0% 49.1% 4.9%
$50-75,000 28.3% 45.7% 23.9%
$75-100,000 80.3% 19.1% .1%
$100,000+ .1 99.8% .1

Public Opinion on Current Health Care System (Weighted Data)

Survey Question: Do you think the country’s health care system works pretty well, and needs only minor
changes to work better, or do you think the country’s health care system has so many problems that it
should be completely rebuilt?

Responses: “Works pretty well and needs only minor changes”, “Has so many problems that it should be
completely rebuilt”, “Not sure”

Current Health Care System Minor Changes Rebuilt Not Sure

Respondent Demographics (N = 880)
Democrat 25.7% 60.2% 14.1%
Republican 28.9% 66.4% 4.7%
Other party 54.3% 32.9% 12.7%
Residents overall 34.2% 54.2% 11.6%

5
Public Opinion on Economic Blame (Weighted Data)

Survey Question: Who do you think is mostly to blame for the current state of the nation’s economy?

Responses: “The Bush Administration”, “The Obama Administration”, “Wall Street and Financial
Institutions”, “Congress”, “All of these”, “Not sure” (Respondents selected only one response)

Economic Blame Bush Obama Wall Congress All Not sure

Street
Respondent Demographics (N = 880)
Democrat 56.2% .3% 30.7% 5.8% 2.2% 3.2
Republican 2.0% 8.7% 23.6% 12.8% 47.0% 5.4
Other Party 44.1% 6.9% 25.4% 11.6% 6.3% .1
Residents Overall 39.7% 4.2% 27.5% 9.4% 13.9% 3.9

Public Opinion on Government Officials (Weighted Data)

Survey Question: Please rate your level of agreement with the following statement: Government
officials don’t care much what people like me think.

Responses: “Strongly agree”, “Agree”, “Neither agree nor disagree”, “Disagree”, “Strongly disagree”
(“Not Sure” responses are not included)

Government Officials Strongly Agree Neither Disagree Strongly

Agree Disagree
Respondent Demographics (N = 880)
Democrat 9.1% 70.9% 11.0% 7.1% 1.9%
Republican 12.2% 26.4% 10.8% 50.6% .1%
Other Party 22.8% 25.9% 43.4% 7.4% .5%
Residents Overall 13.7% 47.3% 20.8% 17.2% 1.1%

6
Public Opinion on Making a Political Difference (Weighted Data)

Survey Question: Please rate your level of agreement with the following statement: It’s just too difficult
for someone like me to make a difference in our political system.

Responses: “Strongly agree”, “Agree”, “Neither agree nor disagree”, “Disagree”, “Strongly disagree”
(“Not Sure” responses are not included)

Making a Political Difference Strongly Agree Neither Disagree Strongly

Agree Disagree
Respondent Demographics (N = 880)
Democrat 27.7% 11.9% 23.8% 30.2% 6.4%
Republican 6.1% 22.3% 5.4% 63.5% 2.7%
Other Party 10.6% 19.7% 9.0% 52.1% 8.5%
Residents Overall 17.5% 16.5% 15.8% 44.0% 6.2%

Public Opinion on Trust in People (Weighted Data)

Survey Question: Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted, or that you can’t
be too careful in life?

Responses: “Most people can be trusted”, “Can’t be too careful”, “Not sure”

Trust in People Can be trusted Too Careful Not Sure

Respondent Demographics (N = 880)
Democrat 40.1% 32.4% 27.5%
Republican 19.5% 69.8% 10.7%
Other party 64.3% 25.4% 10.3%
Residents overall 42.3% 38.8% 13%

7
Public Opinion on “Fair Tax” by Level of Trust (Weighted Data)

Responses: “Strongly agree”, “Agree”, “Neither agree nor disagree”, “Disagree”, “Strongly disagree”
(“Not Sure” responses are not included)

“Fair Tax Proposal” Strongly Agree Neither Disagree Strongly

Agree Disagree
Respondent Demographics (N = 880)
Can be trusted 2.5% 29.9% 28.8% 15.8% 12.6%
Too careful 3.9% 7.9% 37.8% 42.1% 4.3%
Not sure .8% 50.4% 3.2% 13.6% 22.4%

8
 Demographic Indicators Referenced in this Report

(Sample characteristics2 are prior to weighting on age, sex, income, race/ethnicity, and educational
attainment.)

1) Do you currently identify as a Democrat, Republican, or something else?

Democrat (27.6%)
Republican (24.9%)
Other (33.3%)
Not Sure (1.1%)

2) What is your gender?

Female (56.4%)
Male (32.9%)

3) What is the highest level of education you have completed?

Graduate or professional degree (17.5%)

Undergraduate degree (20.3%)
Some college (28.0%)
High school (19.6%)
Less than high school (2.7%)

4) What was your age on your last birthday?

18-24 (2.0%)
25-44 (16.9%)
45-64 (38.0%)
65 and above (23.6%)

2 Some aggregate cell counts may equal 99% or 101% due to rounding. Non-responses to questions are not included.

9
5) What is your estimated annual income

Less than $35,000 (23.5%)

$35,000-50,000 (17.2%)
$50,000-75,000 (13.2%)
$75,000-100,000 (9.1%)
$100,000+ (8.4%)
6) What is your race or ethnicity? Do you consider yourself

African-American (4.4%)
Asian (0.7%)
White/Caucasian (79.2%)
Hispanic (0.5%)
Native American (1.1%)
Other (1.7%)

10