Issue Number 3

June 10, 2015

L.B. INSIGHT
May Monthly Trade Commentary

About the Author

Macroeconomic Scope:

With a deep understanding of Financial

Markets, Technical Analysis, and
Macroeconomic policy, Anthony shares a
passion to demonstrate specific market
opportunities that minimize risk for readers,
allowing them to visualize, analyze, and
interpret potential trade opportunities. He
believes in the continual education,
measurement, and metrics of technical
analysis on derivative based markets.

As the month of May reaches its conclusion, the economic outlook

remains as it was. With the Dow Jones reaching new highs,
investors, traders, and those who follow financial markets became
weary of such promising numbers. Many great economic
formations, in conjunction with previous analysis implications are
starting to become seasoned to fruition. Our previous articles
measured the importance of inter-market analysis, the inverse
correlation of the Dollar to the Euro, and the relevance of existing
commodity prices.

The reasoning behind this risk analysis

technique is that it allows for a
Macroeconomic scope on the market,
providing an insight on microeconomic
portfolio strategy. Thus, identifying
proficiency, isolating portfolio risk, and
creating deeper analysis on specific
investment strategies and portfolio
objectives.

Figure 1.1a

All while providing an inferred implication to market direction, I will

touch base on the United States continued economic direction
within this article. However, I also want to touch base on the
importance of the business cycle accompanied by the implications
and reactions in which businesses face within these macroeconomic
conditions.
The United States itself is distinguished/designed as a business (on
a large scale). So who is to say that the same business cycle
reactions don't cohort within the United States? This is a true notion
and will be demonstrated utilizing Figure 1.1b.
The business landscape includes many parallels with Darwin's
ideology 'survival of the fittest'. Companies with lean utilization
skills, and insight into the future allow for opportunities to be
continually identified, new technology to be incorporated, and
alternative ways of doing business, thus perpetuating success.
However, just because businesses are competitive via pricing does
not necessarily constitute as effective and competitive. All
businesses experience the following aspects:

-Inception -Growth
-Expansion -Stagnation
-Recession -Deflation

L.B. Trader Insight

WWW.LBGLOBALADVISORS.COM

Issue Number 3

June 10, 2015

Figure 1.1b
The overall goal is to avoid stagnation, however there are periods in
which such instances are inevitable.
So the main question to think about is the following: How does
Figure 1.1b add value to my knowledge base?
Valuation of intangible assets are becoming more prominent within
businesses, technology, and integration. My outlook is as follows:
knowledge is power and the amount in understanding these
frameworks allow for complex formulations to be simplified. Thus
increasing exposure to better analysis for increased portfolio returns
(don't worry, there is a method to the madness).
So lets integrate this framework with our market to paint the
macroeconomic conditional picture.
We notice the various business stages that cohort with our current
market in expansionitory periods and contractionatory periods.
Figure 1.1b denotes the business cycle within
our economic system, accompanied with the
various stages within the cycle.
Figure 1.1a $DJI (courtesy of Thinkorswim
platform via. TD Ameritrade.

Figure 1.2

We notice within Figure 1.2 the U.S. Dollar

Strength coming off high over sold parameters,
indicating further downward momentum,
however dependent on market sentiment.

As we infer from Figure 1.1b we notice much of this cycle attributes

to past and present conditions. The visualization indicates during
recessionatory periods, there are various market segments that
precede, and lag behind one another. An example would include
the bottoming of stocks within the business cycle.
The framework is as follows:
Within Stage 2, as Stocks reach a bottoming point, bonds begin to
rebound. As bonds begin to pivot, so does our stock market in
tandem. These events may occur as the result of an economic
recovery. Which brings us to Stage 3. As commodities begin to
increase in value due to the continued growth, they are
accompanied with a shaky economic state (sound familiar?). We
then reach that 'euphoria' market stage within Stage 4.
The primary objective in providing readers with Figure 1.1b is to
illustrate that analysis is indeed just as much an art, as it is a science.
It takes a high degree of variability, accompanied with inter-market
analysis to fully understand only a fragment of the macroeconomic
picture. However, Figure 1.1b is a great tool for the every day
investor to measure where our market currently resides, along with
where it may be headed. As I conclude this segment of L.B. Insight, I
always enjoy leaving readers to ponder the question: What stage do
you think our current economy is facing?

/DX(M5)- U.S. Dollar index (Courtesy of

Thinkorswim platform via TD Ameritrade)

L.B. Trader Insight

WWW.LBGLOBALADVISORS.COM

Issue Number 3

Figure 1.3

June 10, 2015

United States Market Direction:

As our market continues to receive the mixed notions of fed rate
hikes, we are beginning to notice the relative strength revisions
coming into fruition. From our charts (DJI), we notice relative
strength continuing to project downward in conjunction with falling
momentum, volume, and squeeze levels.

EUR/USD (Euro/Dollar) - Monthly charts.

Courtesy of Thinkorswim platform via TD
Ameritrade).

Want to trade, but don't know

how?
So you have read this article, and have a
multitude of questions, no worries.! I would
be more than happy to provide commentary,
mentorship, and/or a conversation with
those who seek a further continued
understanding on wealth management. Its
completely understandable in instances
where both young and senior investors have
their lives to worry about (I have been/am in
that boat as well). However, the importance
and understanding of basic techniques
cannot be overshadowed to generate
wealth in both a long term and short term
scope. Feel free to email me at:
aramos@lbglobaldvisors.com

What this means: Despite our economy continuing to demonstrate

strong growth, the revisions in which are looming are only minor.
While I do believe valuations are somewhat overvalued, I also
believe that investors are continuing to be patient in determining
the proper direction of the market. I believe it is safe to assume
volatility will begin to pick up and our current market will exemplify
further range bound consistency.
What about Greece?: There have been many assumptions, scare
tactics, fopa's whatever you call them regarding the macroeconomic
conditions of Greece. Speculation of currency exits, non negotiable
austerity measures and complete economic reform are all subjects
brought to the table. While these ideas were certainly entertaining,
one idea which occurred to me did not seem to be visible to many
consumers. My idea was as follows, "If Greece did decide to exit the
Euro, what would the macroeconomic ramifications associated be? Yes austerity, yes devaluation, yes currency manipulation, but what
about the overall Euro and its association with speculators? To
investors the Euro as a whole would look weak in the allowance of
regulations to be disoriented and not upheld.

Dollar and Euro:

Overall I would look for continual range bound consistencies within
the EUR/USD. As investors seek the confirmation of governmental
market direction, they are becoming more keen on such analysis and
know where great opportunities lie. As the U.S. Dollar continues to
appreciate in value, insight becomes revealed as our market
continues to suggest increased volatility.
So whats the EUR/USD trade?
In conjunction with the projections of the Grexit, the investors are
starting to realize the absurdity in addition to the negative
ramifications in the occurrence if such event were to take place. As
negotiations with Greece and its repayment plan come to a
conclusion, I believe the Euro will continue to see a consolidation
range bound pattern. Inflation is certainly a great aspect in which
Europe is facing, and I would agree parity is still in question, now it
just may be a matter of when such can occur.

L.B. Trader Insight

WWW.LBGLOBALADVISORS.COM

Issue Number 3

Figure 1.4

June 10, 2015

As commodities continue to devalue, overall weaker commodity

prices reflect indication of strong currency markets, I believe as both
U.S and Euro markets. As the continued succession of the Greece
Scare, promising bailout plans begin to reach that conclusions,
opportunities will be exposed thus signaling a stronger EUR/USD.

Oil:

/CL-(Oil Futures) - Monthly charts. Courtesy of

Thinkorswim platform via TD Ameritrade). We
can clearly see the consolidation of oil on the
monthly charts, its possible this consolidation
can further continue as commodities continue to
develop a base. The importance in relevancy
between commodities, the dollar, bonds, and
foreign exchange is crucial in determining
market direction.

Figure 1.5

As economic conditions indicate the continual release of oversupply

levels (Figure 1.4), I believe we are starting to see Oil normalize and
pull back during the driving season. As consumers continue to
purchase vehicles for driving weather, gas begins to normalize to a
price in which consumers beliefs of affordability, in conjunction with
the prospects of an increasing global economy in conjunction with
our own. Dont get me wrong, I am still a huge fan of E.Vs, and the
influence in its' adjacent industries, however I believe we are
continuing to enter a new driving age where technology will begin
to become more prevalent within our vehicles, and we will start to
experience the grave importance of seamless interconnectivity. This
can result in various outcomes. As Oil continues to experience over
sold levels, we will see normalization of oil becoming more
prevalent within the following months.

Gold:
Noted within our previous analysis, the Gold market denoted in
figure 1.5 (along with the rest of the commodities markets) is
continuing the range bound paths. This one in particular seems to
be normalizing in the 1180-1200. As foreign policies are beginning
to stabilize alternate investment vehicles, foreign markets, and front
line currencies beginning to react to market assumptions, the Gold
trade is one that should be monitored continuously. I believe this
month Gold will continue to touch key levels at the 1175-1180 mark.
Thus posing a great opportunity for a short rally buy. Overall, tread
lightly and if you do decide to tread the Gold path dont get too
comfortable.

/GC - (Gold Futures) Monthly Charts. Courtesy of

Thinkorswim platform via TD Ameritrade. We
notice Gold at a pivotal intersection here, our
squeeze indicator depicts further price
consolidation - a risky trade that should be tread
lightly.

L.B. Trader Insight

U.S Dollar:
In addition to the Macroeconomic conditions of European markets,
the United States is experiencing an increased currency
consolidation that may impact and influence future direction. Figure
1.2 denotes the explosive bull run the dollar has been experiencing.

WWW.LBGLOBALADVISORS.COM

Issue Number 3

One Word. Diversification.

As the continuation of our market
conditions continue to propel us into the
future, accompanied by the
technological advances within our
economy, the streamline of information
in today's age is so integral, and
financially inter-related the importance
of diversification cannot be
overshadowed. For the young investors
stating, "Really, how important is
diversification? I will see you a question
and raise you one in asking - "How
important is understanding which teams
have the best players and worst players."
The ability to not only diversify, but pivot
is becoming more integral within our
market place. As the emergence of Robo
Advisors, intelligent portfolios, and
adjustments, the ability to be versatile is
crucial along with the ability to pivot with
proper diversification adds
supplementary value.

Analysis in the 21st Century

The evolution of analysis is finally starting
to come to fruition within the 21st
century. As seasoned data aggregation is
finally starting to become manipulated,
the conjunction of the science behind
"data aggregation" and the art of
Manipulating data to depict a story.
I believe this is the new direction our
society is beginning to grasp the
realization. It's interesting the parallels of
such in stating the following. Data analysis
is as much an art as it is a science.
However the characteristics that create
this data parallel history and depict not
only numerical representations, but
historical ones as well.

L.B. Trader Insight

June 10, 2015

Much like our cousins across the pond, I believe we will begin to
experience continued normalization range bound consistency in the
following months. This is because as the United States maintains its
focus globally, while its focus internally results as a by-product.
As the United States continues to experience growth in its Telecom
and Technology sectors (which are essential to macroeconomic
analysis), the learning curve for businesses, back end development,
and utilization continue to develop in rapid successions. This is why I
believe our Dollar may begin to normalize; its normalcy will
continue to influence business, and overseas investors realize this
technological revolution occurring within our United States. With
that notion in mind, we will continue to push the limits of technology
increasing our market intelligence.

Summary:
As the IMF urges the United States to wait until 2016 in imposing
monetary policy, we will begin to see increased volatility, in addition
to our current market experiencing tandem effects of stagnation.
While there does lie opportunities in overseas currency markets and
U.S. Currency Markets. Investors, traders, and hedge funds are
keeping one eye open at both Bond (foreign and domestic) markets
as well as commodity markets.
When considering to take investments in to your own hands, the
importance of sustaining discipline is crucial. Remember, money is
made by being patient; sure you can day trade (quite a few day
traders make a great living) however it is imperative to realize the
distinct difference in both day trading strategies and swing trading
strategies. While this analysis is intended for educational purposes,
the type of investment/trading strategy is up to the individual.
I believe our generation is part of a great data/tech/integration
renaissance. As learning curves are continuously steepened, the
transit and abundance of information allows for any individual to
learn anything, anywhere. As a country we will continue to push the
boundaries of technology, innovation, and business. However as I
have stated before, the universe is a mystery and markets do what
they want. As markets are continually observed, only time will tell.

WWW.LBGLOBALADVISORS.COM

Issue Number 3

June 10, 2015

Disclaimer:
Please read the following disclosures as it provides important information reviewing context. Additional information can
be provided upon request except upon instances of proprietary information.
This document is intended for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as a prediction of future
market activity, performance, nor the performance metrics measured by L.B. Global Advisors, LLC.
It is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned. Portfolio
allocations, commentaries, and technical analysis are for illustrative purposes only and may not reflect the actual or
current implementation of our strategy. The performance provided is net of management fees and includes the
reinvestment of all interest, gains, and losses. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve
returns similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Performance as of the
current month is estimated and subject to change. Return and risk expectations shown here are based on L.B. Global
Advisors, LLC. analysis and reasonable people may disagree with the assumptions used and expectations developed
there from and there is no guarantee the expectations shown can be achieved. The expectations are considered
hypothetical and are subject inherent limitations.
Client returns reported here are net of fees total returns. Any net of fees returns are estimates and are not finalized until
the end of each quarter. The Funds advisor may reduce or waive fees or reimbursed expenses, without which
performance would have been lower. Net of fees calculations are estimated until the end of the quarter. The returns
reported are based on market prices and intended for informational purposes only. Final redemption value may be
impacted by transaction costs and liquidity considerations. This document is not intended to be legally binding. For the
full legal contract, each investor should carefully review the Private Placement Memorandum, the Limited Partnership
Agreement, and the Subscription Agreement. The views expressed here are sole that of L.B. Global Advisors, LLC. and
are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree. You should assume that L.B. Global Advisors,
LLC. has a financial interest in the views discussed. The research presented is for informational and educational purposes
only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the investments mentioned. It does not constitute a
personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of
individual investors. Investors should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for
their particular circumstances and, where appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. Investment
decisions should not be based solely on simulated, hypothetical or illustrative information. Past performance is not a
guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Certain
transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not
suitable for all investors. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income
derived from, certain investments. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any
means or redistributed without the prior written consent of L.B. Global Advisors, LLC.

L.B. Trader Insight

WWW.LBGLOBALADVISORS.COM