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C H I N A R EVIEW
S u m m er 2 0 1 0
Great Britain-China Centre,
2010. All rights reserved
ISSN: 1359-5091
Contributors
David Shambaugh is Professor of Political Science &
International Affairs in the Elliott School of International Affairs
at George Washington University
Michael Yahuda is Professor Emeritus of International Relations
at the London School of Economics
Peter Nolan is Director of the Chinese Big Business Programme
at Cambridge Judge Business School
Calum MacLeod is Asia correspondent for USA Today
Rana Mitter is Professor of History and Politics of Modern China
at the University of Oxford
Frank N. Pieke is University Lecturer of Modern Politics and
Society of China and Fellow of St Cross College, University of
Oxford
Dr. Linda Yueh is Director, China Growth Centre and Fellow in
Economics, St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford
Carl Minzner is an Associate Professor of Law at Washington
University in St. Louis, School of Law
Duncan Hewitt is a correspondent for Newsweek in Shanghai
Peter Hessler is the author of Rivertown, Oracle Bones, and
Country Driving
Laura Rivkin is Information and Office Manager at GBCC
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CHINA : AN UNPREDICTABLE
GLOBAL POWER
BY DAVID SHAMBAUGH
FOR SEVERAL YEARS THE world has been
witnessing Chinas emergence as an international actor, but
has been wondering what kind of global power it will turn
out to be? Following the majestic Olympic Games of 2008,
many hoped that the countrys symbolic success would
breed a new confidence and cooperativeness on the world
stage. But this did not fully emerge, and throughout 200809 Beijing continued to abide by Deng Xiaopings dictate to
keep a low profile (taoguang yanghui) and engaged itself in
a limited fashion abroad. During the autumn of 2009,
many observers discerned a number of troubling indications
that suggested a more assertive but uncooperative China.
Government spokesmen and officials adopted a tough and
uncompromising attitude on a range of issues, displaying a
disturbing dismissiveness and arroganceparticularly
towards the United States and European Unionand
diplomats complained of Beijings extra truculence in
negotiations. More recently, during the spring of 2010,
however, there seems to be a thaw in Chinas icy posture
as Beijing has begun to evince some smile diplomacy and
pragmatism towards the US, EU, and Latin America.
Why the fluctuation and fickleness in Chinese
diplomacy? Of course, Chinese officials deny there has
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Chinas international
persona remains a
work-in-progress
developing countries are the foundation, and multilateral
forums are the important stage). But the Asia Firsters do
believe in giving Asia a relatively greater emphasis over
relations with the US, Russia, Europe, or the developing
world.
Moving along the spectrum to the right, another
identifiable group are the selective multilateralists. They
believe that China should expand its global involvements
gradually, but only on issues where Chinas national
(security) interests are directly involved. There are several
variations and splinter factions of this group: one argues
China should only engage in UN-mandated activities,
another argues that China should only become involved on
its periphery and far away, while another believes it should
not so constrain itself from getting involved in multinational
(as distinct from multilateral) actions together with other
major powers. The Selective Multilateralists generally
eschew increasing Chinas global involvements, but realize
that China must be seen to be contributing to global
governance. They have advocated increasing Chinas
participation in UN peacekeeping operations (PKO),
contributing to disaster relief, fighting international piracy
in the Gulf of Aden, being diplomatically involved in the
North Korean and Iranian nuclear issuesbut they eschew
deeper involvement in sensitive and risky areas like Iraq
and Afghanistan. The Selective Multilateralists are wary of
foreign entanglements but they recognize that China must
do some things (yousuo zuowei, as Deng Xiaoping
instructed) in the international arena and not be perceived to
be self-interested free riders in international affairs.
At the far end of the spectrum are a distinct
minority of Globalists, who believe that China must
shoulder an ever-greater responsibility for addressing
international issues commensurate with Chinas size,
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CHINA S EMERGENCE AS A
GLOBAL POWER
BY MICHAEL YAHUDA
CHINA HAS EMERGED as a major power on the
world stage only in the last decade. During the course of the
last ten years the significance of Chinas trade and
investment has expanded beyond its own region to include
Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and the Caribbean.
This year its GNP is set to pass that of Japan to be second
only to the United States and last year China replaced
Germany as the worlds largest exporter. China is by far the
largest holder of US dollars as its currency reserve and
American leaders recognize that their country has become
economically interdependent with China. Indeed the Obama
administration regards the relationship with China as its
most important bilateral relationship bar none.
Chinas character as a global power
It is important to recognize that China is not a
global power like the United States. It cannot project
chinafotopress
An armed UN Chinese peacekeeper stands guard near a church during a religious celebration in the Haitian Capital
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THE END OF
WILD CAPITALISM
BY PETER NOLAN
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Celebrating the 60th anniversary of the founding of the PRC. The idea that China is
a superpower is already deeply ingrained in American public consciousness
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Calum MacLeod
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C H I N A S R A I L WA Y S
Chinas first high-speed service, the 73-mile BeijingTianjin line, opened in August 2008, slashing
journey time from 70 to 30 minutes.
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The British Chinese Law Association (the BCLA) is a bilateral law association recognised by the Law
Society.
The BCLA brings together lawyers from the United Kingdom and the People's Republic of China and
aims to encourage business relationships between its members, promote mutual understanding
betweenthelegalprofessionsofthetwocountriesandfosterlegalbestpracticeandknowhow.We
organiseseminars,roundtables,socialeventsandlegallanguageexchangesessions.
ForthelatestinformationonforthcomingBCLAeventspleaseseewww.bclaw.org.uk.
The coincidence of the BCLAs 10year anniversary and relaunch was marked by the BCLA China10
series,launchedin2010toaddressthenexttenyearsoflegaldevelopmentsinBritainandChina.
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Advertisement
Chatham House,
China Discussion Group
The Chatham House Asia Programme runs a regular series of events on
contemporary China. In the last year, we have had Professor Jerome Cohen
on Chinese law, Professor David Shambaugh on Chinese soft power,
Professor Hans van den Ven of Cambridge University on Taiwan, and Dr
Frank Pieke of Oxford on elite training at the CCP Party Schools. We have
also run events on Chinese business, overseas investment, Taiwan, Hong
Kong, and work in conjunction with a number of partners in China, the UK,
the US and Europe to bring the best speakers on the best subjects to
London.
Anyone interested in being added to our mailing list, please get in touch
with Dr Kerry Brown, Senior Fellow, Asia Programme, Chatham House, on
Kbrown@chathamhouse.org.uk
Forthcoming Events
10th June Professor Li Fengding, member of the Foreign Policy Advisory
Group, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China
22nd June Dr Stefan Halper, Cambridge
We have major events on Hong Kong and Taiwan planned for the latter part
of 2010.
Further details on:
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/research/asia/
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CHINA S IMMIGRANT
POPULATION
BY FRANK N. PIEKE
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Banging the drum for Chinese education: numbers of South Korean students in China
have risen sharply.
Cross-border migrants
Chinas international borders no
longer divide and separate. They are becoming part of
larger cross-border regions defined by complex
relationships of co-ethnicity, religion, legal trade and illegal
smuggling, marriage, employment, study, immigration and
emigration, crime and (particularly in the case of Xinjiang)
terrorism. North Korea provides perhaps the clearest
example. The famine in the late 1990s led to a flood of
immigrants from North Korea into China. The PRC
government has treated illegal Koreans with little sympathy.
In 2002, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch
reported massive roundups, detentions and repatriations of
North Koreans, and a crackdown on religious and human
rights groups that assisted them. The issue is made more
complex because of the large ethnically Korean population
that lives in China just across the border from North Korea.
Many North Koreans were taken into rural Korean
households and even irregularly registered as members of
these households by the local authorities.
Fortune seekers and problems of immigration
Neatly dividing foreign immigrants into the
categories such as students, traders, businesspeople,
professionals and cross-border migrants hardly covers
the reality on the ground in China. Migrants are highly
enterprising and proactive in exploring the opportunities
that China has to offer, and there is very considerable
overlap and spillover between all of these categories as a
result. From the perspective of the Chinese authorities, the
dynamic nature of migration has created a further category
of immigrant that does not come to China for bona fide
business, study, or employment, but opportunistically in
search of wealth or survival. Such fortune
seekers (taojinzhe, literally gold panners), do not bring
any skills or capital to China. They come to China not to
contribute to its modernization, but merely to take
advantage of its new prosperity.
In fact, of course, almost every group of
immigrants in China is internally stratified, having both
highly successful professionals and businesspeople and
more marginal groups without formal jobs or fully
registered businesses. New immigrants rely on their own
resources and personal contacts, causing the growth of
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saving by the non-state sector, which accounts for over twothirds of industrial output.
Complete liberalization of interest rates will
improve credit allocation to non-state sector firms and
reduce the savings incentive as well. Although interest rates
were partially liberalized in 2004 when the ceiling on interbank lending rates was lifted, there are still limits in terms
of the floor as well as a ceiling on deposit rates. Interest
rates reflect the internal rate of return to investment, so such
controls distort lending decisions. Gradual capital account
liberalization, in particular the going out policy, will help
reduce savings if firms can operate in global markets and be
allowed to access funding from better-developed overseas
credit markets. In other words, firms will be able to raise
money on capital markets and not just rely on Chinas
banking system with its controls on credit. This will not
only reduce the motive for corporate savings but also cut
the portion of the current account surplus that is funded
through the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills by allowing
capital outflows in the form of investments instead of
accumulated in foreign exchange reserves. The external
benefits do not end there. The exchange rate should also
become more flexible with greater capital account
liberalization since the capital account as well as the current
account will require the Yuan.
China can be a fast growing, large, open economy
developing domestic demand and upgrading industry and
promoting globally competitive firms that recognises its
wider impact. It is unlike small, open, export-led economies
which do not affect the global terms of trade. Given Chinas
still low level of development, global integration would
benefit its own development as well as that of the world.
These macroeconomic reforms will be important to position
China optimally in a global economy that is significantly
different and more uncertain than before. By doing so,
China can emerge stronger from the global financial crisis.
It is too good an opportunity to miss.
Dr. Linda Yueh is Director, China Growth Centre (CGC) and
Fellow in Economics, St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford
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flickr/ ccyber3
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CHINESE ARTISANS
PETER HESSLERS ENCOUNTERS WITH THE CITIZENS OF LISHUI
Chinese Artisans
past half year she had painted this particular Holland Street
as many as thirty times. All the pictures have that big
tower in it, she said. I told her that it was a churchthe
steeple rose in the distance, at the end of a road bordered by
brick houses with red tile roofs. I thought it might be a
church, but I wasnt sure, she said. I knew it was
important because whenever I make a mistake they send it
back.
Through trial and error, she had learned to
recognise some of the landmark buildings of Europe. She
had no idea of the names of St. Marks Basilica and the
Doges Palace, but she knew these places mattered, because
even the tiniest mistake resulted in rejection. She worked
faster on less iconic scenes, because customers didnt notice
slight errors. On average, she could finish a painting in
under two days.
Chen was in her early twenties, and she had grown
up on a farm near Lishui; as a teenager, she learned to paint
at an art school. She still had a peasants directness she
spoke in a raspy voice and laughed at many of my
questions. I asked her which of her pictures she liked the
most, and she said, I dont like any of them. She didnt
have a favourite painter; there wasnt any particular artistic
period that had influenced her. That kind of art has no
connection at all with what we do, she said. The Barbizon
concept didnt impress her much. The government had
commissioned some European-style paintings of local
scenery, but Chen had no use for any of it.
Like many young Chinese from the countryside,
she had already had her fill of bucolic surroundings. She
stayed in the Ancient Weir Art Village strictly because of
the free rent, and she missed the busy city of Guangzhou,
where she had previously lived. In the meantime, she
looked the part of an urban convert. She had long curly
hair; she dressed in striking colours; she seemed to wear
high heels whenever she was awake. On workdays, she
tottered on stilettos in front of her easel, painting gondolas
and churches.
Hu Jianhui, Chens boyfriend, was a soft-spoken
man with glasses and a faint crooked mustache that crossed
his lip like a calligraphers slip. Once a month, he rolled up
all their finished paintings and took a train down to
Guangzhou, where there was a big art market. That was
how they encountered customers; none of the buyers ever
came to the Ancient Weir Art Village. For the most part,
foreigners wanted Holland Streets and the Water City, but
occasionally they sent photographs of other scenes to be
converted into art. Hu kept a sample book in which a
customer could pick out a picture, give an ID number, and
order a full-size oil painting on canvas. HF-3127 was the
Eiffel Tower. HF-3087 was a clipper ship on stormy seas.
HF-3199 was a circle of Native Americans smoking a peace
pipe. Chen and Hu could rarely identify the foreign scenes
that they painted, but they had acquired some ideas about
national art tastes from their commissions. Americans
prefer brighter pictures, Hu told me. They like scenes to
be lighter. Russians like bright colours, too. Koreans like
them to be more subdued, and Germans like things that are
grayer. The French are like that, too. Chen flipped to HF3075: a snow-covered house with glowing lights. Chinese
people like this kind of picture, she said. Ugly! And they
like this one. HF-3068: palm trees on a beach. Its stupid,
something a child would like. Chinese people have no taste.
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Chinese Artisans
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GBCC PROJECTS
I N D E P E N D E N T M O N I TO R I N G O F
CHINAS DETENTION CENTRES
36 POTENTIAL LAY VISITORS, from a diverse
range of work places from Zhejiang and Henan, travelled to
Beijing to participate in training for monitoring detention
centres. EU experts Ian Smith, CEO of the UK Independent
Custody Visitor Association, and Nicola Macbean, Director
of The Rights Practice facilitated the training on the UK
side. On the Chinese side Professor Chen Weidong opened
each of the two training sessions by providing a powerful
case for legitimizing lay visiting in China. In his
presentation, he cited the recent opening of 10 detention
centres to the public by the MPS as a very encouraging
development.
Dr. Wang Long, a Chinese Medicine doctor and
lay visitor from the pilot project run in Jilin in 2008, also
offered advice based on his experience of monitoring visits.
The training is part of the EU-funded Preventing Torture
project, the overall aim of which is to move China closer
towards signing the UN OPCAT. The OPCAT requires
regular, independent, unannounced inspections of detention
centres. The training emphasized that visits should cover
detailed, practical criteria covering all aspects of treatment
and conditions with a clear guide for inspectors on evidence
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GBCC PROJECTS
J U D I C I A L D I S C R E T I O N I N A P P L I C AT I O N
O F T H E D E AT H P E N A LT Y
THE GBCCs THIRD DEATH penalty project
(co-financed by the EU and the FCO's Strategic Programme
Fund) is proceeding smoothly. Evidence and sentencing
guidelines are currently being piloted in three pilot courts in
Yunnan province (Dehong Intermediate Court, Kunming
Intermediate Court and Yunnan High Court). The pilot is
scheduled to run for 6 months (January-June 2010), during
which the Wuhan project team will pay several monitoring
visits to the courts. To ensure the quality of pilot
monitoring, the Wuhan team underwent a series of training
sessions on social science research methodology in March
2010. Pilot courts have also been trained in data collection.
The highlight of the project's second component,
the judges training component, included a workshop on
training methodology for judges in Wuhan in March 2010.
Participants included Professor Sun, Director of the training
department of the National Judges Training College, judges
who had already taken part in training in November 2009,
and representatives from other organisations conducting
legal training. The workshop included an opportunity for
judges to feedback on training methodology and techniques
which revealed a strong appetite for the effectiveness of
practical training. There were also wide-ranging discussions
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PETER HESSLERS
COUNTRY
DRIVING
REVIEWED BY LAURA RIVKIN
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APPCG
APPCG
NEWS
A FAREWELL MESSAGE
F O RT H C O M I N G C O N F E R E N C E :
THE MUSIC OF CHINA AND EAST ASIA
15th International CHIME
Conference
Theme: The music of China and
East Asia, Theory versus Practice
Organised by the European
Foundation for Chinese Music
Research and the Swiss festival
"Culturescapes"