Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
SB60485
OF VIETNAM
STOCK
Nguyen Thi
Thu HoaiMARKET
SB60476
Group members
SB60456
SB60561
SB90199
Supervisor
Hochiminh City
May 2015
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
ABSTRACT
TABLE OF CONTENT
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT....................................................................................2
ABSTRACT.........................................................................................................3
TABLE OF CONTENT........................................................................................4
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS...............................................................................7
LIST OF FIGURES..............................................................................................8
LIST OF TABLES................................................................................................9
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION.......................................................................10
1.1 Topic background..............................................................................................10
1.2 Problem statement.............................................................................................13
1.3 Research objectives...........................................................................................13
1.4 Research questions............................................................................................13
1.5 Research scope..................................................................................................14
1.6 Methodology and data overview........................................................................14
1.7 Conclusion.........................................................................................................14
1.8 Thesis outline.....................................................................................................15
3.5.2 Multicollinearity......................................................................................................47
3.5.3 Heteroscedasticity...................................................................................................48
REFERENCE.....................................................................................................50
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
APEC
FDI
FII
HNX
HOSE
VND
Vietnam Dong
WB
World Bank
WTO
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1
Figure 2
14
Figure 3
16
Figure 4
18
Figure 5
Theoretical framework
35
Figure 6
Research approach
37
Figure 7
41
LIST OF TABLES
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Topic background
Vietnam is an attractive market for foreign investors because of the favorable conditions in
terms of economic and policy mechanisms. When considering the role elements affecting to
the development of the nations, foreign capital investment is necessary for developing
country as Vietnam. This capital consists of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign
institutional investment (FII). While FDI has a role to improve manufacture, FII has the role
of encouraging financial market to expand the scale, improves efficiency of operational and
increasing evidences.
The structure of FII into Vietnam last time primarily focused on stock trading segment. The
stock capital was maintaining positive at the high levels, a key component of this scale is the
funds of foreign investors investing in secondary market transactions.
The milestone of foreign indirect investment to Vietnam includes two mains stages. The first
stage is the period from 1991 to 2002. Although Vietnam had not have stock market, but FII
appeared from the early 90s with 7 funds and total capital is around 400 million USD
(Source: IMF). In this period, the Asian financial crisis (1996 1997) occurred and led the
prices of listed funds fell sharply compared to net asset value. This crisis also affected on
foreign portfolio investment until 2002. For example, there were not any new investment into
Vietnamese market and the funds narrowed 90% size of capital from 2000 to 2002. Specially,
in July 2000, Vietnam had opened the secondary stock market.
The second stage begin from 2003 to present: FIIs in Vietnam rebounded and grown
overtime; hit a point from 2006 to 2007. According to ANZ report; from 2001 to 2006 FII
10
was approximately 12 billion and in 2007 reached 5.7 billion USD (Source: IMF). Because in
that time Vietnam became the official 150th member of WTO and the host of 14th APEC;
Vietnam had a chance to become the attractive destination for foreign investors over the
world. However in 2008, due to bad effect of the global economic downturn, the value of
shares on the stock market plunged; the amount of FII into Vietnam market fell sharply, while
the many foreign investors withdraw capital from the stock market Vietnam.
In 2009, FII continued falling down around 71 million USD (1,500 billion VND). By 2010,
with the restoration of the world economy, the amount of FII into Vietnam's stock market
surged. In 2012, foreign investors bought stock with an amount of 4,600 billion VND in both
Hanoi and Hochiminh Stock Exchange. In Hochiminh stock market, the net purchase value
increased nearly 3 times compared to 2011 contributed to the increase in the share capital in
2012 to nearly 1,900 million VND.
By the end of 2013, the volume of FII did not change significantly total capital of stock
maintain around 1,800 million, lower than 2012, while the value traded separately on the two
stock markets, foreign investors bought gross 315 million USD (nearly 6,650 billion VND).
Particularly 2014, total funds from foreign investors in Vietnam stock market were still
positive; although lower than last year. However, withdrawing capital from Vietnam was just
the temporary trend. Total FII bought stock is 4000 billion VND included 2,843 billion VND
on Hochiminh stock market and 1,110 billion VND on Hanoi stock market in 2014. In fact
Vietnam stock market, FII has always occupied a proportion of the whole market around 1015% and has an impact on the trend of VN-index and HNX-index.
In 2015, belong to ANZ forecast, hard to large expect on the outlook and volatility on the
stock market of Vietnam. Report on January 2015 of BSC, the foreign capital inflows
decrease sharply compared to the same period of 2014; net buying around 99 billion on HSX
11
and net sold around 178 billion on HNX. However, the investors can expect about room
allocation for foreign investors of the Vietnamese government and Government continued
equalization of state enterprises, it is likely that stock market will attract attention and VNindex will rise much.
80,000.00
70,000.00
68,315.30
60,000.00
50,000.00
43,700.50
40,046.80
40,000.00
35,372.00
32,427.70
29,265.80
30,000.00
32,427.70
25,879.30
20,000.00
10,000.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Although there are many authors who have conducted and concluded about the impacts of
liquidity, as Amihud and Mendelson (1986) shown that liquidity has significant impacts on
market return. Research by Mingfa Ding, Birger Nilsson and Sandy Suardi (2013) indicated
that there is a negative relationship between the participation of FII and market liquidity over
time. In reality, the characteristics of FIIs effects on financial markets as if financial market
grows, liquidity will be higher as attracting the interests of foreign investors. Moreover, FIIs
can help increase the capital of local enterprises, make businesses grow and enhance
12
competitiveness, this is the reason FIIs are very important for the local businesses, which are
undercapitalized.
13
1. To make an overview about the impacts of FII on liquidity of Vietnam stock market.
2. To give some descriptive statistics and analyze the relationship between FII and
liquidity of stock market in Vietnam.
3. To draw the conclusion and suggest recommendations about the effect of FII to
Vietnam stock market.
In addition, the researcher will use statistical software to run some statistical test. For
example, to test the hypothesis to determine the impact or run some model as VAR, Granger
Causality and Impulse Response Function (IRF) to check the theoretical framework.
1.7 Conclusion
In summary, chapter 1 shows an overview about the topic research, in which introduces the
important role of foreign sector and their influence on the stock markets liquidity. The
research will answer the question How does foreign sector impact on liquidity of Vietnam
stock market? This question would support to find evidences and give some
recommendations for investors in Vietnam stock market. In addition, helping investors keep
away from negative impacts or suddenly shock of market. This chapter also indicate about the
structure, methodology and data of thesis.
Chapter 1: Introduce about the topic background, identify the research objective,
Besides that, appendix and reference are also presented in the end of research.
15
In the current situation of economy, the stock market is conceived of as the place where the
trading activities of medium and long-term securities. The acquisition is carried out in both
primary market and secondary market. The Initial Public Offering of bonds and stocks to
investors is done in the primary market and succeed trading is done in the secondary market.
16
Thus, the stock market is the place where the exchanges, trade, transfer of securities occurs,
thereby changing the securities holders.
Stock Exchange has a variety of functions and highly important roles for the economic
development of a country. The stock exchange has function of attracting idle capital invests
for development, integrating world economy or adjusting macro situation. Creating and
raising capital for the national economy is a role of stock exchange through selling shares to
the investing public. The other role of stock exchange is creating conditions for enterprise to
: Current price of the stock i
Index formula
On 11-7-1998 Government signed Decree No. 48/CP issued on securities and stock market
and Vietnam stock market was born. Hochiminh City of Trading Center (HoSTC) is
established under Decision No 127/1998 / QD-TTg dated 07/11/1998, and in Hanoi on
03/08/2005. The first transaction of HoSTC started on July 28th 2000 there were just two
17
firms listed: Saigon Cable & Telecommunication Material Joint stock company (SAM) and
Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Joint stock company (REE). Through 7 years,
Vietnamese stock market has significantly increased amount of company listed, market
capitalization and trade volume. Additions, stock market also had some fluctuations, such as
the Vietnamese stock index (VN-index) reached its peak in March 2007 but then declined.
After that, there was a rapid decline in the investors trust in Vietnam stock market. The
market has started gaining back the investor trust since the middle of 2009. Through 14 years
VN-Index reached the top at 1.170 points on 12th March 2007 and after 7 years this number
just goes around 600 points.
On 30th June 2014 amount of trading transaction was 1,977,047 billion VND, the
government investment trade transaction was 250,596 billion VND.
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-
18
increased significantly, while the total market capitalization reached VND 221,156 billion,
equivalent to 14 billion US dollars by 22.7% of GDP. The total market capitalization has
increased by 28.8 times in 2006.
Period 2007 - 2009: in 2007 the capitalization increased primarily due to the volume factors
more when there are new companies listed. As of 28/12/2007, the total market capitalization
of approximately 493 billion VND, accounting for 43% of GDP. In 2007, Vietnam joined in
WTO. HOSE has carried out 248 sessions with nearly 2.390 billion of the total volume of
securities, respectively worth 244,670 billion VND; averaging 986 billion VND/session. As
of 31/12/2007 with over 7,500 transaction accounts belonging to foreign investment volume,
increased 3 times compared to 2006. Foreign investors held from 25-30% of the shares of the
listed companies, trading revenue accounted for approximately 18% of the whole market.
Value their portfolios on the official market was estimated at $ 7.6 billion, more than 3 times
compared to 2006 ($ 2.3 billion); if you count the unofficial market, this figure is estimated to
reach nearly $ 20 billion. According to the State Securities Commission in Vietnam (SSC), in
2007 there were 179 companies licensed to offer 2.46 billion shares to the public,
respectively consisting of over 48,000 billion VND (25 times more than in 2006).
The global economic recession and the collapse of major international financial institutions in
2008 undoubtedly had seriously negative influence on the health of domestic securities
market. After hitting its all-time high of 1,171 points in March 2007, VN-INDEX plummeted
to the bottom of 235 points, the lowest point ever since 2006. From the position of the best
performance stock market in 2006, Vietnam was proclaimed to be the most risky stock
market in 2008 (Bloomberg, 2008).
20
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
It was crowd psychology of Vietnamese investors that further made stock market down and
resulted in bigger losses (Nguyen.T, 2008). That showed the real that the investor have the
tendency to behave the same as majority of people without their own careful judgment or
consideration. In that time. Stock market was the emerging market, one-third of total was
securities investors and two-third was individual investors. The lack of experiences and
knowledge had affect them to imitate the crowd investment decisions. When the stock
market was overheated in 2007, witnessing the fact that number of people had made big
profit, individual investors hurried to make the Buy order, they even continued to purchase
stocks, regardless the warning that Vietnamese stocks exceeded its intrinsic value by 30% at
the end of 2007. As a consequence, when Vietnam stock market suffered crisis with
considerably decline in value and market capitalization, most of local investors were in
terribly panicking mood, they sold out stocks as fast as possible. With that massive capital
outflow, the stock market condition became seriously worse.
21
In 2014, Vietnam Stock Market have very positive situation, market development with
growth trend, although sometime alternating some down adjusted. VN-INDEX increased
strongly in early of 2014, then create bottom from early of March and middle of May with
508 points and up top at 644 points. After that, market entered a down cycle points, nearly
returned to the level of the first point in year. While, HNX also up top at 92.99 points.
22
To date 08.12.2014, VN-INDEX reached 571.68 points, increased 13.3% compare with the
end of 2013. The total transaction value of market reached 1,164 trillion VND, increased 90%
compare with 2013; Average transaction value per sessions reached 5,448 billion VND.
While, stock transaction value, average fund certificates per sessions reached 2,971 billion
VND, greater than 2.2 times compare with 2013.
Total mobilization of capital by Stock Market in 2014 reached 237 trillion VND, increased
6% compare with 2013 and contributed 27.1% to total social investment capital. Including,
total mobilization value through government bond issuance reached 214 trillion VND and
hold proportion 90% of total value of mobilization of capital.
In brief, Vietnam stock market experiencing 13-year history of development has grown
significantly and rapidly in both the number of stocks listed and value of market
capitalization. The movement of VN-Index, nevertheless, has shown unpredictable instability
over observed period (Figure 1.1). In addition, making investment decisions based on herd
mentality rather than professional strategies is still popular among Vietnamese investors,
especially
individual
23
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
investors.
24
According to M.R Murthy (1999), FII could provide a high degree of liquidity and improve
the function of a stock market. In the research about the liquidity of stock market in China of
Mingfa D., Sandy Suardi (2013) stated that the appearance of foreign investors create an
effect on liquidity by changing the trading volume in the China market.
25
- Liquidity: It means ability which asset can convert to cash quickly and simply wherever
need it. It also is degree which asset or security can be bought or sold in market without affect
price of asset or stock.
- Stock market: a place that contain both primary and secondary market for investors. Provide
the environment to do all the activities of selling and buying stocks, bonds
- Net purchase: net purchase means when foreign investors have greater buying value than
selling value of stock. So, this variance is called net purchase value.
Market depth, the ability exercise large transactions without influencing prices;
Tightness, or the different between bid and ask prices. According to Von Wyss (2004),
tightness also can be seen as the degree of buying and selling asset in a specific time at
Liquidity is an important factor of a stock market, which used to measure the efficiency and
growth of market. It also a strong forecaster of economic growth, predicts future returns as
Bernnardo (2002) state. According to Amihud & Jones (2002), liquidity engaged in financial
26
analyzing process and helped in providing price forecasts as well as facilitating efficient price
establish in markets. Schmukler et al. (2007) indicated that liquidity is a very significant issue
for an investor when deciding which investments to take. Liquidity provides safety and lessen
the risk of losses in executing large volume transactions.
There are a number of attributes that can impact stock market liquidity, for example the
market return, volatility or participate of institutional investors. Wahal (1996) state that
institutional investors also play an important role in influencing liquidity and exist a relation
between them. Lakonishok et al. (1992) argued that the impact of foreign investors on stock
liquidity is reinforced by the influence of their trading on stock price. In addition, the room
allocation to international investors as well enhance local market liquidity.
Bekaert et al. (2007) exhibit an effect from the openness to foreign investors to liquidity in
emerging markets. Agarwal (2007) examined the relationship between institutional ownership
and liquidity of stocks, focusing on the effect of the institutions information advantage on
liquidity. He found evidence of a non-monotonic (U-shaped) relationship between the
fractions of a firms shares held by institutions and various measures of stock liquidity, and
showed that liquidity rises with increased institutional ownership.
Chordia, Roll, and Subrahmanyam (2000) studied the US market and concluded that liquidity
is not an asset specific attribute; rather, individual asset liquidity tends to be positively corelated to aggregate market liquidity. A market is liquid if the cost of buying or selling a large
number of shares on demand is low. This suggests that the costs of acquiring capital are lower
in more liquid markets. Thus, liquidity in the stock market has consequences for a firm's
financing/investment policies.
27
The firm size will be measured by the market capitalization, which present the firm value in
the current market as:
M cap=Si Pi
Where
Si
Pi
In the second group, the related volume included many ways to measure liquidity as trading
volume, turnover, depth, log depth and dollar depth and many other ways. Normally, turnover
is seem to be more popular and adequate because it provide a comparison between different
stocks in measuring liquidity. Turnover is calculated by the price in transaction i and the
quantity of share traded in transaction i by the formula:
28
Nt
Turnover(Tnt )= Pi Qi
i=1
When considering time trading to measure liquidity, Von Wyss (2004) focused on number of
transactions and number of orders, which refers to the number of orders placed for a specific
stock in a given time. High number of orders or transactions, high liquidity of the stock.
And spread related liquidity measure is the group present the different between bid prices and
ask prices with some methods as absolute spread, log absolute spread, relative spread and
effective spread. In reality, investors not only concern about the fees paid to stock market and
brokers in each transactions, but also interested in the cost that coincident executing orders.
The lower values of spread, the higher liquidity of stock.
Liquidity ratio 1, also known as Amivest liquidity ratio describes how much turnover
corresponds to a unit change in the price. A high liquidity ratio means high liquidity.
p i qi
Tn t
i=1
LR 1=
=
|r|
|r|
29
Amihud illiquidity ratio (2002) or ILLIQ is reverse with liquidity ratio, which compare the
absolute price change of a stock to the turnover. A low Amihud ratio denotes the high
liquidity.
r
Tn t
1
ILLIQ=
=
LR 1
The liquidity of stock market is measured by the Amihud illiquidity ratio to assess the price
impact in the market. In the research of Shane & Paul (2011) were calculated turnover ratio,
examine the transaction cost and bid-ask spread in the market. Weekly average FII were
considered to estimate the impact of FII flows on the stock market. Then, weekly average
trading flows were computed from daily gross purchases, sales and net investments. The
researchers found that foreign trading extraordinary improved trading activities in India. FII
flows had a significant positive impact on the volume and value traded while gross purchases
and sales not only impacted market liquidity negatively, but were also found to have a
negative lead effect on future liquidity.
Nowadays, Unit root test is tool to test series stationary or not. There has five popular
methods to test stationary of data are Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) was developed by
30
Dickey and Fuller in 1979; Dickey-Fuller Generalized Least Squares (DF-GLS) was develop
by Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock in 1996; Phillips-Perron (PP) was named after Peter C. B.
Phillips and Pierre Perron done their research in 1988; Kwiatkowski, et. al.(KPSS) was
introduced by Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, Shin in 1992; and Ng and Perron (NP) in
2001.
In fact, ADF and PP test are close to estimate the stationary of times series data but it may
basically differ in finite samples by the different ways in which they evaluate for
autocorrelation in the test regression. Indeed, Schwert (1989) found that the result of ADF
and PP test are size distorted, it makes the result rejects the null hypothesis many times while
its true. In addition, the research of Caner and Killian (2001) also found that KPSS unit root
test has the same problem with ADF and PP test. So, they have low power to test the
stationary of time series.
In 1996, ERS unit root test was developed by Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock as the
modification of ADF method to mitigate the size distorted. Moreover, Ng and Perron (2001)
applied the procedures of GLS detrending of Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock to build an
efficient version of PP unit root test which also fixed their own problem about size distorted.
In summary, for maximum power of unit root test method, ERS and NP are efficient method
to test the stationary of time series data. Therefore, this research uses ERS unit root test to test
data stationary or not.
updated surveys of VAR techniques are given in Watson (1994) and Lutkepohl (1999) and
Waggoner and Zha (1999). Applications of VAR models to financial data are given in
Hamilton (1994), Cuthbertson (1996), Mills (1999) and Tsay (2001). Besides that in 2012
Paul Chopra and Ajay Rajut also use this models to checks the stationary or non-stationary.
This model is simple and flexible. The users do not worry about how determine which are
endogenous variable and exogenous variables. All the variables in VAR is endogenous
variables. The single estimate is OLS method can be applied to each separate equation
displacement. The forecast by this method is better than other forecast which calculated from
simultaneous equations model complex. VAR models is the useful tool to test the correlation
between 2 factors FIIs and liquidity.
The basic concept of Granger Causality is that if variable X contains useful information for
predicting variable Y, then variable X causes Y. That is X is Granger causality of X. There are
four cases of causality: Unidirectional causality from X to Y, Unidirectional causality from Y
to X, Bilateral causality, or feedback, Independence.
32
In 2009, S. Ghon Rhee, Jianxin Wang have used daily stock trading of listed firm in
Indonesia stock market in the period 2002-2007, it includes daily holdings of investors,
volume of trading, value of trading, bid ask prices, high, low and closing prices. Based on
this data set, they used it to measure liquidity by three methods, which are bid-ask spread,
price sensitivity and market depth. By using Granger causality testing to examine the
relationship between foreign institution investment and liquidity, S. Ghon Rhee and Jianxin
Wang (2009) concluded that foreign investments have a negative impact on liquidity of
Indonesia stock market. This study stated that if foreign holdings increase 10% in the current
month, it would lead to bid-ask spread increase by approximately 2%, market depth drop by
3% and price sensitivity rise by 4% in the next month.
In recently, Prasanna and Bansal (2014) investigate the relationship between Foreign
Institutional Investment and liquidity of India stock market. In order to examine this effect,
they collected daily data of gross sales, gross purchase and net investment as proxies for FII.
Besides that Prasanna and Bansal have applied several methods to measure liquidity such as
trading volume, turnover, turnover ratio, illiquidity ratio and spread. Based on these proxies,
they used OLS regression estimates to find out the correlation coefficients of FII and liquidity
measures. Moreover, in order to understand more clearly the causes and effects relationship
between FII flows and liquidity of stock market Prasanna and Bansal also applied Granger
causality to test and the result show that net investment has a significant positive impact on
liquidity whereas higher gross purchases and gross sales have substantial negative impact.
33
The Role of
Foreign
Blockholders
in Stock
Liquidity: A
CrossCountry
Analysis
Authors
Year
Nation
Dependent
variable
- The
average
percentage
effective
spread
-Percentage
relative
spread for
firm i in
month t
Lilian Ng,
Fei Wu,
Jing Yu, and 2011
Bohui
Zhang
- Amihuds
illiquidity
ratio
- Turnover
Foreign
Institutional
Investors and
Stock Market
Liquidity in
China: State
Ownership,
Trading
Activity and
Information
Asymmetry
Result of the
research
Liquidityi,t = 0 +
1F Oi,t1 +2Ret
12mi,t + 3RV oli,t +
4ADRi,t +
5Indexi,t+6DYi,t
+ 7BMi,t +
8Sizei,t + Other
controls + t,
Negative and
Positive Relationship
between foreign
block ownership and
stock liquidity
-The relative
quoted
spread (QS)
Mingfa
Ding,
Birger
Nilsson,
Sandy
Suardi
2013
China
34
-The relative
effective
A negative
spread (ES) relationship exists
between the
- Amihud
participation of
(2002) price foreign institutional
impact
investors and market
measure
liquidity over time.
(ILLIQ).
Foreign
institutional
ownership
and stock
market
liquidity:
Evidence
from
Indonesia
Rhee, S.
Ghon, and
Jianxin
Wang
Foreign
Institutional
Investment in
Indian
Capital
Market: A
Study of Last
One Decade
-Bid-ask
spread
Indonesia
-Price
sensitivity
-Market
depth
Gross
sale
Do Foreign
FIIs
Gross
purchase
Institution
Chishen
purchases
5 Net
Improve
Stock
Liquidity
2009
Wei
2010
USA
- Amihud
Liquidity
Turnover
(2002)
price
(Amihud
2002)
trading
Positive Volume
and
impact
Negative relationship
measure
(ILLIQ).
The negative
liquidity impact of
institutional investor
ownership in
developed markets.
VAR
Granger causality
Impact of FII
35
Recommendations
36
There are four types of philosophy, namely: Pragmatism, Positivism, Realism and
Interpretivism. Pragmatism argues that in research, it must have a specific answer for the
actual question. Researchers have to base on the knowledge and theory was accepted before
to solve the problem of research topics by using the authentication result realistic. Positivism
confirmed that accuracy knowledge springs from the empirical testing. When the author using
Positivism, the research will accept the theory of the author before, then arguments and make
correct statements about what the researcher pursue. Realism is related to scientific enquiry.
Nature of realism is the senses lead to the truth. Two type of realism is direct realism and
critical realism. Interpretivism said that it is necessary for researcher to understand the
different between roles of humans through social vision position.
In this study, the researchers based on available theories, then collected secondary data and
analyzed the impact of FII to liquidity in Vietnam stock market to prove and develop these
theories. Besides that, researcher made some assumption about some factors in our theoretical
framework and modeling. Thus, pragmatism is the most appreciate method for purposes and
characteristics of this research.
37
This research follows the impact of FIIs on liquidity of Vietnam stock market. First of all,
providing the overall of Vietnam stock market. Then analyzing elements of each factor: FIIs
and liquidity. Next using the Eviews software and financial method to explanatory nature to
squash the research question. Then reviewing and investigating the correlation between
variables by statistical test like regression to get the acknowledgment about the research. So,
researchers combine 2 types: exploratory and descriptive together to get the main purposes.
Inductive
Specific examples or activities
Generalization
Deductive
38
According to Aristotle (2010), the knowledge reached through inference. There want
inference must be the premise and that premise was accepted. Therefore, there is a premises
relationship with very clear conclusions. Deductive approach of Aristotle (2010) that moves
from the general to the particular or general rules applying particular rules.
Francis Bacon (2002) gave a different approach about knowledge said that to gain new
knowledge must come from the private information to the general conclusion, this method
called inductive method. This method allows us to use the personal premises, is the
knowledge that has been accepted as a means to gain new knowledge.
It means deductive approach that moves from the general to the particular or general rules
applying particular rules. Thus, deductive approach is suitable for this research. This
approach tends to give a realizable results said by Babbie (2010). Beside that deductive
approach is often linked with the quantitative research with the expertise. For doing this
thesis, researcher choosing this approach to test against the variables and find out the
relationship between them.
39
For this topic, quantitative research is the most accurate methods. Quantitative method for the
secondary data from HOSE stock market is more compatible and accurate. The researchers
use different methods to measure, reflect and interpret the relationship between some factors
together. For detail, authors gather numerical data, then using formula and model to measure,
compare and give specific conclusions about the impact of FII to liquidity in Vietnam Stock
Market.
40
have a clear view about the Vietnam stock market. Thus, in this study authors use
longitudinal and the data is collected in 5 years period from 2010 to middle of 2015.
The total observations are 1374. All collected data will described in table on Excel file, it is
listed out day by day from 4th January, 2010 to 30th June, 2015 as below:
model. In this step, the researchers chose Phillip-Persons Test to check the stationary of
variables after considering among many unit root test methods. Then, lag-length is another
requirement of VAR model to identify the relationship between FII and market liquidity.
Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) will be used to identify the lag-length in this paper. After
that, the Granger Causality Test will be applied to find out whether liquidity has any effect on
Gross Purchase, Gross Sale or Net Purchase of foreign investors.
H1
If the test statistic is lower than the critical values at the significant level 1%, 5% and 10%,
H0
cannot reject. On the contrary, If the test statistic is higher than all of the critical
H0
H1
After determining the time series is stationary, this research can apply VAR model. However,
in some case, the time series data is not stationary at level, the research have to transform
non-stationary time series into stationary at 1st difference or 2nd difference.
m=1
m=1
m =1
m=1
In which:
AMI T
FII: Foreign indirect investment: gross sales; gross purchase, net purchase on day
43
'
t , : Constant
, , , : Correlation coefficients
Assuming that each equation includes lag length values include: (k) lag length for both FII
and liquidity as variable to regression. In this case, using OLS to estimate each equation.
With () is the random error, it also called thrust or innovation in VAR language.
With some of the lag length variables, each coefficient will no statistically significant,
possibly due to multicollinearity. In regression coefficients FII, there are only the FII which
has lag length is 2 is statistically significant, while the remaining coefficients cannot.
Addition, the result in the regression of Liquidity is same to FII.
44
In this research, the authors choose Akaikes information criterion (AIC) is a tool to estimate
lag length of VAR models.
Y t 0+ ki=1 i Y ti +kj=1 i X t j+ t
X t 0 +i=1 i X t i+ j=1 i Y t j + t
(3.1)
(3.2)
To determine whether causal relationship between X and Y variable or not, the authors will
test hypothesis for each equation above:
H 0= 0= 1 = 2== k =0
H 0= 0= 1= 2== k =0
Using F-statistic of Wald test to investigate null hypothesis, if F-statistic is higher than critical
H0
45
i 0
i=0
i=0
i 0
Bilateral causality, or feedback is happened when the estimated coefficient of X and Y are
i 0,
i 0
Independence is suggested when the estimated coefficient of X and Y are not statistically
i=0,
i=0
Nt
Turnover(Tnt )= Pi Qi
i=1
46
Tnt
In which, turnover is daily trading volume in VND, Pi is price in transaction i and Qi is the
quantity of share traded in transaction i.
Then, the researchers will come to calculate the daily return of stock in market by the
equation:
R=log
In detail,
P1
P1
P0
( )
is the closed price of today and
P0
After that, the Amihud Illiquidity ratio will be calculated by the absolute daily return and
turnover as the formula:
R
Tnt
ILLIQ=
According to Mwirigi Kiula, 2014, there are three main reasons to have autocorrelation are
omitted variables, misspecification and systematic in errors measurement.
Omitted variables arises in case of the model C depend on 2 variables are A and B, but the
real number only has A or B, so C just affected by A or B, so it is called omitted variables. In
47
many time series data, the thing that lack some series is existing usually because of statistic,
so omitted variables is the popular reason for autocorrelation; Suppose A is related by B and
squares of C, but the real calculation wrongly assume only B and C, so this mistake is called
misspecification. Systematic in errors measurement is usually happens when the system is
updated and some of data cannot update like the others, so it makes the hold systematic
doesnt link to each other.
When the data has autocorrelation inside, OLS estimators are still linear and unbiased, but the
result is not the best, it is inefficient. The regression coefficients are also unbiased; it makes
standard errors of regression coefficients underestimate; and the range of confident interval of
t-statistics and F-statistics are bigger.
There are two popular ways to detect autocorrelation are graphical method and formal tests
(Mwirigi Kiula, 2014). With formal tests in Eviews, it has the Durbin Watson Test, the
Breusch-Godfrey Test, and the Durbins h Test (for the presence of lagged dependent
variables). This research uses the Durbin Watson test to detect autocorrelation and fix it for
the best estimation which integrates in unit root test result, when the Durbin Watson test is
bigger than 2, times series have no autocorrelation and opposite.
3.5.2 Multicollinearity
Muticollinearity arises when two independent variables have a high correlation. It exists
which makes the result of regression model wrongly by changing the standard error.
Collinearity (or multicollinearity) is the undesirable situation where the correlations among
the independent variables become stronger than the others (Central Michigan University,
2014).
48
Multicollinearity can be caused by use incorrectly of dummy variables (like exclude wrong
category); include an independent variable that is computed from other independent variables
in the equation (A = B + C, and the regression includes both A, B and C) or use one variable
twice times but in different unit of measure (High in feed and high in meter)
tstatistics=
Estimated coefficient
Standard error
And the absolute of t-statistics and p-value is always opposite. It means, when the
multicollinearity increases the standard error, it makes t-statistics decrease. Therefore, pvalue will increase. In addition, when p-value is higher than 5% (0.05), the variables become
insignificant while it may be not insignificant. So, multicollinearity makes the result after
estimation worse.
To detect the multicollinearity, Eviews provides a tool to run correlations analysis using all
independent variables in the estimate equation to test is there exist multicollinearity or not.
After detect the problem, once that has high correlation will be drop it out from the equation
and run this model again to have the final result.
In this document, each equation just uses one variable to test the impact to the dependent
variable is liquidity of Vietnam stock market. So, this research doesnt have multicollinearity.
3.5.3 Heteroscedasticity
When doing regression for many variable observations, the Mean Standard Errors (MSE) is
calculated for the efficient of linear regression, regression is good when MSE is low and not
good when MSE is high, and variances of regression are also proportional to MSE.
49
Heteroscedasticity arises when the variances of regression are not stable. It means
observations distribute with no trend and the result of regression is not efficient.
To detect the heteroscedasticity in estimated regression, there have several tests to know
heteroscedasticity exist (Mwirigi Kiula, 2014), for example as The Breusch-Pagan LM Test,
The Glesjer LM Test, The Harvey-Godfrey LM Test, The Park LM Test, The GoldfeldQuandt Tets, and Whites Test. This document uses White test to find heteroscedasticity if
regression model with the null hypothesis of the test is there is no heteroscedasticity (or
homoscedasticity). After detect the heteroscedasticity, Hossain Academy, 2011 suggested that
data should convert into log and run the model with log variables; heteroscedasticity will be
removed and it becomes homoscedasticity.
All of data was requested be solely for the research intention. Source of data is acknowledged
and available in public domain that is taken from Hochiminh stock market (HOSE).
Ethical issues related to the analysis and reporting process: ensuring that the data is not
distorted and erroneous. Data will be analyzed and reported in honestly way and secured
actions to edit data to get the good results. Besides that, from an ethical standpoint, first of
all we ensure that the results of the research would be useful. Our thesis respect and comply
with all relevant policies. Thesis report respect all copyright laws cited documents and paper.
Using data from reliable sources, books, magazines and reference material that all the
information in the report is valid.
50
Before making any conclusions about this thesis, these may have some limitations. As an
external party, this research focuses on the impact between FIIs and liquidity of Vietnam
stock market. Thus, the researcher may not collect full database because the stock market in
Vietnam still develops and finishes. Author effort to investigate this topic. Due to limitations
of essays, the research may not provide a sustainable explanation but it could serve as a guide
for future in-depth studies.
51
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