Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
DELIVERING ON PRIORITIES
2|
A regional leader
in energy markets
A regionally
significant position
in natural gas and
LNG production
Improving returns
in energy markets
businesses
Delivering
growth in natural
gas and LNG
A growing
position in
renewable energy
Growing capabilities
and increasing
investment in
renewables
Capital
management
and funding
Building customer loyalty and trust is the most powerful mitigant to the
impacts of a highly competitive market
Digital Transformation
Customer Communication
5% improvement in
on time payment
behaviour
34 point
improvement in Net
Promoter Score for
new connections
Operational Metrics
Customers registered on
My Account
Customers taking up eBilling
Customers choosing Direct
Debit
Jun 13
Mar 15
183k
961k
157k
883k
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
71%
Ombudsman complaints
(per 1,000 customers)
9.0
1.6
60%
86%
90%
93%
14%
10%
7%
40%
676k
20%
70%
40%
390k
Sales Channels
4.9
40%
20%
30%
29%
0%
0%
H1 FY2014 H2 FY2014 9 months to
31 Mar
2015
1.1
Retains
Wins
Internal
External
25%
NSW
SA
20%
15%
10%
QLD
Origin Churn
Market Churn
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
0%
Jul-13
5%
Origin has not been leading the market but will meet the market on discount offers
6
Origin has a competitive cost of gas through its diverse and flexible gas
portfolio and continues to capture benefits of rising gas prices, near term
ramp gas opportunities, increasing sales volumes and market share ...
Natural Gas Gross Margin
400
$ million
300
200
QGC - Up to 30 PJ in calendar 2014 & 2015
GLNG 365 PJ over 10 years from 2015
100
0
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016+
1H Financial Year
2H Financial Year
100
60
900
12,000
800
700
10,000
600
8,000
500
6,000
400
4,000
300
2,000
200
40
0
-2,000
0
H2 FY13 H1 FY14 H2 FY14 H1 FY15
100
14/01 11:20
14/01 14:20
14/01 17:20
14/01 20:20
14/01 23:20
15/01 2:20
15/01 5:20
15/01 8:20
15/01 11:20
15/01 14:20
15/01 17:20
15/01 20:20
15/01 23:20
16/01 2:20
16/01 5:20
16/01 8:20
16/01 11:20
16/01 14:20
16/01 17:20
16/01 20:20
16/01 23:20
20
120
14,000
Marginal price of
generation remains
relatively constant
MW
Limited increase
in net demand of
around 8 TWh
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
14 TWh of additional
renewables push out
the supply curve
Time of Day
Increase in renewable to 2020
Minimum Generation
Scheduled Generation Capacity
Net Demand (3.5 GW of Solar PV)
Net Demand (9.5 GW of Solar PV)
... while an increase in solar will lower demand for baseload energy during the
day and increase volatility in afternoon and evening peaks
9
These trends will hollow out the load duration curve, lowering prices for
baseload generation and increasing volatility and peak prices
Origins Generation Flexibility
Capacity
40
8,000
35
Hedge
Contracts
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
Peak
Electricity
Retail
Demand
Peaking
Intermediate
2,000
25
Pool or
Contract
Market
20
15
10
Gas
Retail
Coal
Baseload
100%
Business
1,000
1%
Energy
30
Energy (TWh)
7,000
Capacity (MW)
As more renewables
are installed there is a
reduced energy
requirement from
traditional nonintermittent generation
9,000
Peak Demand
Supply
Demand
Supply
Origin has recombined our Exploration & Production and LNG businesses to
integrate all our activities along the gas value chain
Beetaloo Basin
Origins first shale play
APLNG (Downstream)
2-3 ships for loading
per week
Browse & Bonaparte Basins
Offshore discoveries
Targeting new resources
Perth Basins
Beharra Springs
Gas and condensate
production
Exploration
Senecio & Waitsia
discoveries
APLNG (Upstream)
Gas: 1,700 TJ/ day
530 km pipeline
2,600 km field delivery pipeline
13 gas processing facilities
4 water treatment facilities
> 1,000 wells
Cooper Basin
Gas, oil, condensate
and LPG production
Exploration
Building an
unconventional portfolio
Otway
Gas, condensate and LPG
production
Halladale and Speculant
field development
FIND
New Zealand
Kupe
Gas, condensate and LPG
production
Canterbury Basin
Exploration to prove resource
BassGas
Gas, condensate and LPG
production
Drilling of Yolla 5 & 6
production wells
ACQUIRE
DEVELOP
OPERATE
SELL
SELL
11
Origins reserves are almost entirely gas, exposed to export gas prices
Origin Reserves
PJe
7,000
A$/GJ
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2014 prices
unusually low due
to ramp gas in QLD
2011
2,000
1,000
2P APLNG (37.5%)
2P Gas
3
2P Liquids
Once all the east coast LNG projects have secured all of their
feed gas, domestic gas prices will likely be driven by
production costs of new developments
Even at low oil prices domestic gas prices will increase from historical levels
increasing returns on Origins gas reserves
(1) Average calendar year spot prices across VIC, NSW, SA and QLD. All prices are to 31 December 2014.
12 (2) EnergyQuest EnergyQuarterly November 2014 Report. Short-run LNG netback at Wallumbilla, based on 14.5% slope and 0.78 AUD/USD exchange rate.
(3) The majority of oil and condensate production from FY2016 to FY2021 will reflect a fixed oil price of US$62.40/bbl
13
At A$100/bbl oil, Origin expects its share of distributable cash flow from
APLNG to be around A$900 million per annum on average from FY2017
Brent Forward and Spot Curves (A$/bbl)
140
120
100
80
FID 1
FID 2
60
40
20
FY17
Spot
APLNG will have free cash flow available for distribution to shareholders at
approximately A$55/bbl oil1
14
(1) This includes all business as usual operating and capital costs, as well as amortisation and interest on project finance
15
OTWAY BASIN
PERTH BASIN
LIQUIDITY
SERVICEABILITY
FLEXIBILITY
... and while liquidity and serviceability are well in hand, it is flexibility that is
challenged in a period of sustained low oil price
16
Origin has more than sufficient liquidity to fund its expected remaining
contributions to APLNG with maturities extending beyond FY2018
Origin Debt & Bank Guarantee Maturity Profile
as at 31 December 20141
6,000
Loans & Bank Guarantees - Undrawn
Loans & Bank Guarantees - Drawn
5,000
A$ million
4,000
3,000
2,000
17
FY2025+
FY2024
FY2023
FY2022
FY2021
FY2020
FY2019
FY2018
FY2017
FY2016
FY2015
1,000
Cash flow from existing businesses has been more than sufficient to service
all interest payments, stay-in-business capex and dividends
Cash Flow Sources and Uses (ex Growth Capex)
2,500
2,000
$ million
100
1,500
80
FID 1
FID 2
60
1,000
40
500
20
FY17
0
12 months 12 months 12 months 12 months
to Dec
to Dec
to Dec
to Dec
2012
2013
2014
2014
Spot
At oil prices above A$55/bbl, every A$10/bbl movement in oil results in approximately
A$200 million change in expected distributable cash flow from APLNG to Origin
18
In a sustained period of low oil price Origin has less flexibility to improve
returns to shareholders ...
Commitments
No equity raising to fund APLNG
Maintain dividend policy of the
greater of 50c per share or 60%
of Underlying NPAT
Maintain an investment grade
credit rating
Maintain stay-in-business capex
to ensure competitiveness of the
business
Loss of Flexibility
Ability to increase dividends
above the current dividend
policy
Ability to de-lever more quickly
Ability to take advantage of
growth opportunities as they
present themselves
Actions
Reduce capital and
operating costs
Realign debt across group
entities
Divest assets
19
... and will continue to take action to meet its commitments and preserve its
flexibility to reduce gearing, increase dividends and fund growth
A regional leader
in energy markets
Improving returns
in energy markets
businesses
20
A regionally
significant position
in natural gas and
LNG production
Delivering
growth in natural
gas and LNG
Total Shareholder
Return for financial
performance
A growing
position in
renewable energy
Growing capabilities
and increasing
investment in
renewables
Net Promoter
Score for our
customers
advocacy
Capital
management
and funding
Engagement
survey for people
at Origin
RepTrak for
community
reputation
THANK YOU
For more information
Chau Le
Group Manager, Investor Relations
Email: chau.le@originenergy.com.au
Office: +61 2 9375 5816
Mobile: + 61 467 799 642
www.originenergy.com.au
21
Important Information
A reference to Contact Energy is a reference to Origins controlled entity (53.1% ownership) Contact Energy Limited in New Zealand. In
accordance with Australian Accounting Standards, Origin consolidates Contact Energy within its result.
A reference to Australia Pacific LNG or APLNG is a reference to Australia Pacific LNG Pty Limited in which Origin holds a 37.5%
shareholding. Origins shareholding in Australia Pacific LNG is equity accounted.
A reference to $ is a reference to Australian dollars unless specifically marked otherwise.
All references to debt are a reference to interest bearing debt only (excludes Australia Pacific LNG shareholder loans).
Individual items and totals are rounded to the nearest appropriate number or decimal. Some totals may not add down the page due to
rounding of individual components.
When calculating a percentage change, a positive or negative percentage change denotes the mathematical movement in the underlying
metric, rather than a positive or a detrimental impact.
Measures for which the numbers change from negative to positive, or vice versa, are labelled as not applicable.
Origin and APLNGs reserves and resources are as at 30 June 2014. These reserves and resources were announced on 31 July 2014 in
Origins Annual Reserves Report for the year ended 30 June 2014 (Annual Reserves Report). Origin confirms that it is not aware of any
new information or data that materially affects the information included in the Annual Reserves Report and that all the material assumptions
and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the Annual Reserves Report continue to apply and have not materially changed.
Petroleum reserves and contingent resources are typically prepared by deterministic methods with support from probabilistic methods.
Petroleum reserves and contingent resources are aggregated by arithmetic summation by category and as a result, proved reserves (1P
reserves) may be a conservative estimate due to the portfolio effects of the arithmetic summation. Proved plus probable plus possible (3P
reserves) may be an optimistic estimate due to the same aforementioned reasons.
Some of Australia Pacific LNG CSG reserves and resources are subject to reversionary rights to transfer back to Tri-Star a 45% interest in
Australia Pacific LNGs share of those CSG interests that were acquired from Tri-Star in 2002 if certain conditions are met. Approximately
22% of Australia Pacific LNGs 3P CSG reserves as of 30 June 2014 are subject to the reversionary rights. If reversion occurs this may
mean that the uncommitted reserves that are subject to reversion are not available for Australia Pacific LNG to sell or use after the date of
reversion. Origin has assessed the potential impact of reversionary rights associated with such interests based on economic tests
consistent with these reserves and resources and based on that assessment does not consider that reversion will impact the reserves and
resources quoted in the Annual Reserves Report. In October 2014, Tri-Star commenced proceedings against Australia Pacific LNG
claiming that reversion has occurred. Australia Pacific LNG intends to defend the claim.
22