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Price-adjusted Major Currencies Dollar Index -- Monthly Index (FED Data)

Date
Jan-73
Feb-73
Mar-73
Apr-73
May-73
Jun-73
Jul-73
Aug-73
Sep-73
Oct-73
Nov-73
Dec-73
Jan-74
Feb-74
Mar-74
Apr-74
May-74
Jun-74
Jul-74
Aug-74
Sep-74
Oct-74
Nov-74
Dec-74
Jan-75
Feb-75
Mar-75
Apr-75
May-75
Jun-75
Jul-75
Aug-75
Sep-75
Oct-75
Nov-75
Dec-75
Jan-76
Feb-76
Mar-76
Apr-76
May-76
Jun-76

Rate
108.2803
103.495
100
100.7017
99.3214
97.4136
94.7303
96.8804
96.6174
96.307
98.7118
99.6426
102.908
100.1977
98.099
96.3189
95.2881
96.3419
96.58
98.4403
99.3586
98.2409
97.4898
96.4146
95.4763
94.1057
93.0809
93.9614
93.2205
93.1717
95.7911
97.2391
97.9332
97.5564
97.2585
97.8006
97.0259
96.1563
96.5364
96.4961
96.5144
96.6573

Jul-76
Aug-76
Sep-76
Oct-76
Nov-76
Dec-76
Jan-77
Feb-77
Mar-77
Apr-77
May-77
Jun-77
Jul-77
Aug-77
Sep-77
Oct-77
Nov-77
Dec-77
Jan-78
Feb-78
Mar-78
Apr-78
May-78
Jun-78
Jul-78
Aug-78
Sep-78
Oct-78
Nov-78
Dec-78
Jan-79
Feb-79
Mar-79
Apr-79
May-79
Jun-79
Jul-79
Aug-79
Sep-79
Oct-79
Nov-79
Dec-79
Jan-80
Feb-80
Mar-80

96.2406
96.1122
95.07
95.2266
95.4167
95.7234
94.8818
95.4529
95.3116
94.7285
94.2822
94.0793
92.9699
93.7103
93.5852
92.3913
91.4018
89.6544
89.0138
88.8093
87.9192
87.9605
89.0457
87.607
85.3486
83.4795
84.2858
82.4731
84.6991
84.9563
85.1997
86.1534
86.3226
87.3647
88.4934
88.603
86.5248
87.4819
87.5697
89.0639
90.6246
89.3617
88.9485
89.87
93.491

103%
103%
103%
104%
105%
106%
107%
107%
105%
106%
106%
108%
110%
108%
108%
109%
113%

Apr-80
May-80
Jun-80
Jul-80
Aug-80
Sep-80
Oct-80
Nov-80
Dec-80
Jan-81
Feb-81
Mar-81
Apr-81
May-81
Jun-81
Jul-81
Aug-81
Sep-81
Oct-81
Nov-81
Dec-81
Jan-82
Feb-82
Mar-82
Apr-82
May-82
Jun-82
Jul-82
Aug-82
Sep-82
Oct-82
Nov-82
Dec-82
Jan-83
Feb-83
Mar-83
Apr-83
May-83
Jun-83
Jul-83
Aug-83
Sep-83
Oct-83
Nov-83
Dec-83

94.2663
90.3717
88.3603
87.6836
88.7797
87.9469
88.5211
90.6452
91.8051
91.1053
94.2555
94.434
96.2203
99.4085
101.5629
104.48
106.1941
103.5503
102.5232
100.1009
99.7147
101.1124
104.066
105.2214
106.1359
104.3949
109.939
111.4069
111.1419
111.3738
113.1017
112.6805
108.0967
106.5061
107.7015
108.2951
109.2172
108.8428
110.6436
111.447
113.0122
112.6605
110.5887
112.1248
113.5258

114%
110%
107%
106%
108%
107%
107%
110%
111%
110%
114%
115%
117%
121%
123%
127%
129%
126%
124%
121%
121%
123%
126%
128%
129%
127%
133%
135%
135%
135%
137%
137%
131%
129%
131%
131%
132%
132%
134%
135%
137%
137%
134%
136%
138%

Jan-84
Feb-84
Mar-84
Apr-84
May-84
Jun-84
Jul-84
Aug-84
Sep-84
Oct-84
Nov-84
Dec-84
Jan-85
Feb-85
Mar-85
Apr-85
May-85
Jun-85
Jul-85
Aug-85
Sep-85
Oct-85
Nov-85
Dec-85
Jan-86
Feb-86
Mar-86
Apr-86
May-86
Jun-86
Jul-86
Aug-86
Sep-86
Oct-86
Nov-86
Dec-86
Jan-87
Feb-87
Mar-87
Apr-87
May-87
Jun-87
Jul-87
Aug-87
Sep-87

114.8192
113.1681
111.2004
112.6094
115.2165
115.9985
119.9506
119.934
122.825
123.8894
122.0705
124.4199
126.7397
131.1274
131.551
126.3152
126.5185
124.9752
120.3777
118.6372
119.8913
113.6158
111.8123
111.0633
109.9539
105.4478
102.6893
101.3277
99.0193
99.9441
97.2022
95.4914
95.5512
95.6623
97.0275
96.2063
92.738
91.4195
90.6592
88.526
88.0214
89.6099
91.1009
90.8483
89.046

139%
137%
135%
137%
140%
141%
145%
145%
149%
150%
148%
151%
154%
159%
160%
153%
153%
152%
146%
144%
145%
138%
136%
135%
133%
128%

Oct-87
Nov-87
Dec-87
Jan-88
Feb-88
Mar-88
Apr-88
May-88
Jun-88
Jul-88
Aug-88
Sep-88
Oct-88
Nov-88
Dec-88
Jan-89
Feb-89
Mar-89
Apr-89
May-89
Jun-89
Jul-89
Aug-89
Sep-89
Oct-89
Nov-89
Dec-89
Jan-90
Feb-90
Mar-90
Apr-90
May-90
Jun-90
Jul-90
Aug-90
Sep-90
Oct-90
Nov-90
Dec-90
Jan-91
Feb-91
Mar-91
Apr-91
May-91
Jun-91

88.826
85.2827
82.6195
82.8707
83.7253
82.3044
81.6611
82.0294
83.6763
86.3691
87.5799
87.72
85.1585
82.9109
82.6555
84.7533
85.2134
86.6077
86.9569
89.7099
91.8962
89.2546
89.6686
90.8309
89.0001
89.0073
87.3594
87.006
87.0609
88.9546
88.901
87.5355
87.851
85.629
83.6972
82.7398
80.2233
79.54
80.9556
80.3924
79.1698
83.1533
84.624
85.2134
86.8485

Jul-91
Aug-91
Sep-91
Oct-91
Nov-91
Dec-91
Jan-92
Feb-92
Mar-92
Apr-92
May-92
Jun-92
Jul-92
Aug-92
Sep-92
Oct-92
Nov-92
Dec-92
Jan-93
Feb-93
Mar-93
Apr-93
May-93
Jun-93
Jul-93
Aug-93
Sep-93
Oct-93
Nov-93
Dec-93
Jan-94
Feb-94
Mar-94
Apr-94
May-94
Jun-94
Jul-94
Aug-94
Sep-94
Oct-94
Nov-94
Dec-94
Jan-95
Feb-95
Mar-95

86.4661
85.3882
83.963
82.8276
81.349
80.4934
80.5878
82.2664
84.394
84.0275
83.0334
81.2405
79.5659
78.8853
79.5928
81.8402
85.4094
85.5979
86.8334
86.7449
85.737
83.8008
83.6399
84.0748
85.2552
84.8972
84.453
85.613
86.8693
87.5503
87.7804
87.2079
86.8232
86.8696
86.2306
85.6039
83.7489
84.1722
83.1076
82.1822
82.8889
84.5887
84.2631
83.4431
80.5395

Apr-95
May-95
Jun-95
Jul-95
Aug-95
Sep-95
Oct-95
Nov-95
Dec-95
Jan-96
Feb-96
Mar-96
Apr-96
May-96
Jun-96
Jul-96
Aug-96
Sep-96
Oct-96
Nov-96
Dec-96
Jan-97
Feb-97
Mar-97
Apr-97
May-97
Jun-97
Jul-97
Aug-97
Sep-97
Oct-97
Nov-97
Dec-97
Jan-98
Feb-98
Mar-98
Apr-98
May-98
Jun-98
Jul-98
Aug-98
Sep-98
Oct-98
Nov-98
Dec-98

78.1236
78.6208
78.5884
78.7493
81.4466
82.8462
82.2372
82.6279
83.3543
84.7651
85.0174
85.0257
85.744
86.2299
86.5913
86.281
85.8783
86.7047
87.1377
86.3874
87.909
89.4754
92.2389
93.1179
93.9416
92.303
91.7948
92.8027
94.8833
94.5489
94.0415
94.7682
97.0379
98.2502
97.2356
97.5778
98.1644
98.6207
100.4312
101.3151
103.0262
99
95.6405
96.4826
95.8506

1.006364
1.00595
1.008009
1.042535
1.06045
1.052655
1.057656
1.066954
1.085013
1.088242
1.088348
1.097543
1.103762
1.108389
1.104417
1.099262
1.10984
1.115383
1.105779
1.125255
1.145306
1.180679
1.19193
1.202474
1.1815
1.174994
1.187896
1.214528
1.210248
1.203753
1.213055
1.242107
1.257625
1.244638
1.249018
1.256527
1.262368
1.285542
1.296857
1.318759
1.267223
1.22422
1.234999
1.22691

Jan-99
Feb-99
Mar-99
Apr-99
May-99
Jun-99
Jul-99
Aug-99
Sep-99
Oct-99
Nov-99
Dec-99
Jan-00
Feb-00
Mar-00
Apr-00
May-00
Jun-00
Jul-00
Aug-00
Sep-00
Oct-00
Nov-00
Dec-00
Jan-01
Feb-01
Mar-01
Apr-01
May-01
Jun-01
Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02

95.2027
96.6449
98.565
99.1107
99.1834
100.0605
100.5842
98.5473
97.4892
96.5251
97.6422
98.1387
98.1919
100.7043
101.5103
102.335
105.6424
103.1564
104.2184
105.7345
107.8397
109.573
110.3246
108.3995
107.7776
109.2901
111.8355
112.8154
113.0364
114.2862
114.2611
111.616
111.5359
112.299
113.8613
114.115
115.7074
116.6445
115.6464
114.9565
111.8947
108.8619
106.153
107.771
108.114

1.218616
1.237077
1.261655
1.26864
1.26957
1.280797
1.287501
1.261428
1.247884
1.235543
1.249843
1.256198
1.256879
1.289038
1.299355
1.309911
1.352247
1.320426
1.334019
1.353426
1.380373
1.40256
1.41218
1.387538
1.379578
1.398938
1.43152
1.444063
1.446892
1.46289
1.462568
1.42871
1.427685
1.437453
1.457451
1.460698
1.481081
1.493076
1.4803
1.47147
1.432278
1.393457
1.358783
1.379494

Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06

108.599
107.0191
106.0718
103.2976
102.4501
101.7234
101.2498
96.4835
95.3585
97.466
98.9148
97.175
93.4245
92.99
90.6697
88.9901
89.718
91.4203
92.4957
94.2432
92.9273
91.7895
92.077
91.7564
89.8289
86.5645
85.5789
86.5351
87.5824
86.7224
88.3525
89.4988
91.1148
92.3048
91.0376
91.3582
92.8524
94.0015
93.0718
91.7605
92.6557
92.7009
91.6622
88.2156
89.3353

Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10

90.1678
89.5668
89.7045
90.1288
89.0019
88.5986
90.2084
90.0761
89.396
87.9731
87.5229
87.4726
85.935
85.9775
84.3435
82.1346
80.471
82.1004
81.5515
81.051
78.5547
78.7257
79.0597
80.1715
79.8375
83.3499
85.0381
90.1575
91.5142
88.6826
89.5019
92.0047
92.6489
91.1245
87.3844
85.7765
85.2197
83.9278
82.677
81.4896
81.0035
81.9705
82.4407
84.1581
83.796

Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13

83.9584
87.2836
87.7886
85.2468
84.4306
83.3765
80.4118
80.9853
82.1316
81.2343
80.3774
79.1397
77.8304
78.1137
78.057
77.6526
77.7522
80.1113
80.4701
81.2249
82.3432
82.459
81.3355
82.1556
81.9168
83.1533
84.4441
84.5751
83.7774
82.1436
82.4074
83.2258
82.635
83.1439
84.5558
86.1867
86.1051
86.8701
86.1124
87.1993
86.2935
85.9672
85.0107
86.0209
86.3094

100%
103%
104%
105%
106%
106%
105%
106%
105%
107%
109%
109%
108%
106%
106%
107%
106%
107%
109%
111%
111%
112%
111%
112%
111%
111%
109%
111%
111%

Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15

87.4175
87.2076
86.9832
86.457
86.4555
86.6551
86.5993
87.8897
90.269
91.7348
93.7289
95.1678
98.519
100.4171
103.3004
102.4441
100.4907

113%
112%
112%
111%
111%
112%
112%
113%
116%
118%
121%
123%
127%
129%
133%
132%
129%

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60
Jan-73

Dec-73
Oct-75
Aug-77
Nov-74
Sep-76
Jul

y Index (FED Data)


Months
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

Index (Oct 1978 - )


Index (Apr 1995 - )
Index (Jul 2011 - )
103%
101%
100%
103%
101%
103%
103%
101%
104%
104%
104%
105%
105%
106%
106%
106%
105%
106%
107%
106%
105%
107%
107%
106%
105%
109%
105%
106%
109%
107%
106%
109%
109%
108%
110%
109%
110%
110%
108%
108%
111%
106%
108%
110%
106%
109%
110%
107%
113%
111%
106%
114%
112%
107%
110%
111%
109%
107%
113%
111%
106%
115%
111%
108%
118%
112%
107%
119%
111%
107%
120%
112%
110%
118%
111%
111%
117%
111%
110%
119%
109%
114%
121%
111%
115%
121%
111%
117%
120%
113%
121%
121%
112%
123%
124%
112%
127%
126%
111%
129%
124%
111%
126%
125%
112%
124%
126%
112%
121%
126%
113%
121%
129%
116%
123%
130%
118%
126%
132%
121%
128%
127%
123%
129%
122%
127%

170%

160%

150%

140%

130%

120%

110%

100%

90%

42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86

127%
133%
135%
135%
135%
137%
137%
131%
129%
131%
131%
132%
132%
134%
135%
137%
137%
134%
136%
138%
139%
137%
135%
137%
140%
141%
145%
145%
149%
150%
148%
151%
154%
159%
160%
153%
153%
152%
146%
144%
145%
138%
136%
135%
133%

123%
123%
122%
124%
126%
127%
127%
128%
129%
126%
125%
124%
125%
126%
126%
129%
130%
131%
135%
132%
133%
135%
138%
140%
141%
139%
138%
140%
143%
144%
145%
146%
146%
143%
143%
144%
146%
146%
148%
149%
148%
147%
143%
139%
136%

129%
133%
132%
129%

87

128%

138%

ov-74

Oct-75
Aug-77
Jun-79
Apr-81
Feb-83
Dec-84
Oct-86
Aug-88
Jun-90
Apr-92
Sep-76
Jul-78
May-80
Mar-82
Jan-84
Nov-85
Sep-87
Jul-89
May-91

USD Index Uptrends %


170%

160%

150%

140%

130%

120%

110%

100%

90%

Index (Oct 1978 - )

Index (Apr 1995

We can see from the above chart that the USD Index has further room to appreciate, judging from hist
The previous two multi-year USD upward trends lasted for :
- 76 months for the uptrend started in Oct 1978, for a total appreciation of around 60%
- 81 months for the uptrend started in Apr 1995, for a total appreciation of around 49%

We are currently (June 2015) in month number 46 of the uptrend started in Jul 2011 and we reached a
Also, as can be seen from the chart, we are currently in an area where corrections usually occur (time
- for the uptrend started in Oct 1978, a correction of 8% occurred between months 47 and 50
- for the uptrend started in Apr 1995, a correction of 10% occurred between months 39 and 44

Consequently, time wise, we should have at least another 30 months of USD uptrend ahead and anoth

Based on this and on the fact that USDJPY has already played a large role in the USD's appreciation (p
brunt of further USD appreciation. This should take : EURUSD towards 0.90, GBPUSD towards 1.35, US
- EURUSD towards 0.90 (currently 1.1350, with potential to go to 1.18 before lower)
- GBPUSD towards 1.35 (currently 1.5850, with potential to go to 1.63 before lower)
- USDCHF towards 1.15 (currently 0.92, with potential to go to 0.89 before higher)
- AUDUSD towards 0.60 (currently 0.7750, with potential to go to 0.80 before lower)
Enjoy the USD uptrend for another 30-40 months and prepare selling it afterwards!

Rate

88

Jun-90
Jul-89

Apr-92
May-91

Feb-94
Dec-95
Oct-97
Aug-99
Jun-01
Apr-03
Feb-05
Dec
Mar-93
Jan-95
Nov-96
Sep-98
Jul-00
May-02
Mar-04
Jan-06

D Index Uptrends % Change

-)

Index (Apr 1995 - )

Index (Jul 2011 - )

reciate, judging from historical price patterns

ound 60%
ound 49%

l 2011 and we reached a maximum appreciation of 33% in month number 43 (March 2015).

tions usually occur (time wise). Thus:


onths 47 and 50
months 39 and 44

uptrend ahead and another 15% (at least) appreciation.

he USD's appreciation (percentage wise), then European and commodity currencies should bear the major
BPUSD towards 1.35, USDCHF towards 1.15 and AUDUSD towards 0.60.

g it afterwards!

pr-03

Feb-05
Dec-06
Oct-08
Aug-10
Jun-12
Apr-14
Mar-04
Jan-06
Nov-07
Sep-09
Jul-11
May-13
Mar-15

ould bear the major