SMAM 351

Exam 2

Name_________

1. Each time a component is tested the trial is a success (S) or failure (F).
Suppose the component is tested repeatedly until a success occurs on
three trials. Let Y denote the number of trials necessary to achieve this.
A. Using S and F list all the elements of the sample space corresponding to
Y=5 (7 points)
FFSSS
FSFSS
FSSFS
SSFFS
SFSFS
SFFSS

B. If P(S ) = 0.8 and the outcomes of the test on the repeated trials are
independent find P( Y = 5) (8 points)
Either the probability of each event is
(.8)3 (.2)2 = .02048
and 6(.02048) = .12288
or use the negative binomial distribution to obtain
4
3
2
(.8) (.2) = .12288
2

2. The probability distribution of X the number of imperfections per 10

meters of a synthetic fabric in continuous rolls of uniform width is given
by
x
0
1
2
3
f(x) 0.41 0.37 0.16 0.05

4
0.01

A. Find the cumulative distribution function F(x) (10 points)

0
x<0

.41 0 x < 1
.78 1 x < 2
F(x) =
.94 2 x < 3
.99 3 x < 4

1
x4

B. What is the value of F(2.5)? (3 points)

F(2.5) = .94
C Find the mean and the standard deviation of X. (12 points)
EX = 0(.41) + 1(.37) + 2(.16) + 3(.05) + 4(.01) = .88
EX2 = 02 (.41) + 12 (.37) + 22 (.16) + 32 (.05) + 42 (.01) = 1.62
VarX = 1.62 .882 = .8456
sdX = .9196

3. Suppose that only 25% of all drivers come to a complete stop at an

intersection having flashing red lights in all directions when no other
cars are visible.
B. What is the probability that of 20 randomly chosen drivers coming to
an intersection under these conditions
(1)at least 6 will come to a complete stop? (6 points)
P(X 6) = 1 P(X 5) = 1 .617 = .383
P(X 6) = 1 binomcdf (20,.25,5) = .383

(2) at most 14 will fail to come to a complete stop? (6 points)

p = .75
P(Y 14) = .383
binomcdf(20,.75,14) = .383

B. What is the probability that of 20 randomly chosen drivers coming to

an intersection under these conditions the number that come to a
complete stop is at most two standard deviations from the mean? (8
points)
= 20(.25) = 5
= 20(.25)(.75) = 1.936
P(1.128 X 8.878) = P(2 X 8)
= .959 .024 = .935
binomcdf(20,.25,8) binomcdf (20,.25,1) = .935

4.What is the probability that a waitress will refuse to serve alcoholic

beverages to only two minors if she randomly checks the IDs of five
students from among nine students of which four are not of legal age?
(10 points)

4 5

2 3
= .4762
9

5

5. The number of people arriving for treatment at an emergency room

can be modeled by a Poisson process with a rate parameter of five per
hour?
A. What is the probability that exactly four arrivals occur during a
particular hour? (8 points)
P(X = 4) = P(X 4) P(X 3) = .440 .265 = .175
P(X = 4) = poissonpdf (5,4) = .175

B. What is the probability that at least eight people arrive during a two
hour period? (8 points)
P(X 8) = 1 P(X 7) = 1 .220 = .780
P(X 8) = 1 poissoncdf (10,7) = .780

6. A family decides to have children until it has three girls. Assuming the
probability of a boy or girl are equal, and the sex of each child is
independent of his/her siblings what is the probability mass function of X
the number of children in the family? (7 points)

x 1
x 3
3
f (x) =
(.5) (.5) ,x = 3,4,5,K
2

7. A k out of n system will function if and only if k of the n individual

components in the system function. If individual components function
independently of one another each with probability 0.9 what is the
probability that a 3 out of 5 system functions? (7 points)
P(X 3) = 1 P(X 2) = .9914