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To: SteveMatlin
From: Kathr Kazanas, CecileFu
Subject: Atlantic YardsEconomiclmpactAnall sis-Modified GPP
Date: September 17.2009
Cc: DarrenBloch
I. Project Description
Table1: AtlanticYardsModifiedGPPPlan(Residential
Mixed-Use)
ModifiedGPP Plan
Uses dentialMixed-Use)
Residential qsf (6.430units
6.400.000
Hotel('180rooms)* 1650 0 0 ^>l5
Retail 247,000qsf
Commercial 336,000gsf
Arena(18,000seats) 850,000qsf
Parkinq(spaces) 3,670
PublicOoenSoace 8 acres
*The impactof the hotelcomponentof the projectis not includedin the analysis.However,the spaceallocation
was shiftedto commercialuse. Soaceallocations are as shownin the ElS. Of the totalresidential
unitsin either
plan,4,500will be rentalunits,50% of whichwill be low,moderateand middleincomehousing.The restof the
unitswill be marketrate rentaland condominiums.
residential
Privilegedand Confidential
Construction Impacts
Table2 presentsthe estimatedone-timeconstruction economicandfiscal impactsof the
overallProjectat full build-out.The orerall Projectconstruction
periodis assumedto be
2007-2019,during*'hich constructionuill proceedin tu'o phases.
Table2: One-Time
Construction and FiscalBenefitsat FullBuild-Out
lmpact:Economic
ModifiedGPP Plan
NYC NYS
Employment
Direct . A tr.E
16,427
Indirect& lnduced 8 706
Total 22.223 25 133
PersonalIncome(billions20095r
Total (direct,indirectand induced) 1.04 1.40
Tax Revenues(millions
2009$ 210.0 171 0
Permanent Impacts
Permanenteconomicand fiscalimpactsriill resultfrom the operationsof the arenaand
mixed-usedevelopmentand the net neri'employmentgeneratedb1 suchactivity. Table 3
reportsaverageannualnet new emplorment over a 30-1'sa1period.
q 16n
Employment(direct,indirectand induced) 5 498
PersonalIncome(billron
20095) 77 10.0
NY C NYS Total
Total FiscalBenefits s834.6 S ?-v 5 $1,t44 1
' Dollarv a r ie sa .e - .ri rl i o -s€ x g rs 5 r* 6a s n et presentval uei n 2l l 9S usi ngan approxra:e1y6% di scountra t e
ov er30 y ea rs
- - NY Cf is c a lc o s tsi n c i u d el v l T Fp c i ti o n sc ' s a :s 1axexempti ons
The economicand fiscal impact of the Atlantic Yards projectr.rasestimatedusing the REMI
model (RegionalEconomicModels.Inc.) of the Neu'York City region.The REMI model is
widely regardedas one of the more sophisticated regionaleconomicand demographic
modelsusedlbr economicimpactanalysis. It is a dynamicmodelthatfbrecasts project
impactson a regionaleconomr. The model takes into account the that
adiLtstments a regional
economymakesover time in response to the project.Suchdynamicntodelsareconsidered
more realisticover input-outputmodelssuchas RIMS II and Implan.u hich provide
estimatesof impactfor a shortperiod(approximately in the local
a year)with no adjustments
economy.Thesedit-ferences makea comparisonof estimatedimpactresultsusingthe
differentmodelsdiff rcult.
Construction Impacts:
7,96'1,000 3,04U
. by net new
This analysisdoesnot includeanv economicor fiscal benefitgenerated
householdsthat are relatedto this proiect