CHOW A CONTENDER FOR SPADINA-FORT YORK

June 30th, 2015. A new Mainstreet poll in the new riding of Spadina-Fort York shows Olivia Chow
in position to take her former seat back to the NDP from the Liberals Adam Vaughan. With 606
respondents the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 3.87%, 19/20.
Mainstreet tested Chow against the current Liberal candidate and the 2014 by election candidates
for the Green Party and Conservative Party. Only the Liberals have nominated a candidate in
Spadina-Fort York. Chow was previously the MP for Trinity-Spadina which makes up much of the
new seat.
"To paraphrase Yogi Berra, it's deja vu all over again for Olivia Chow. Early scenario polls prior to
the 2014 municipal election in Toronto had her leading and these results are similar. Whether Ms.
Chow runs for MP is yet to be determined and whether she could maintain similar numbers
through the election in October is another question, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet.
"At this point, with a little under four months until the election, it looks like a Chow run in her old
riding would help the NDP. If she decides to run for the NDP, the race for Spadina-Fort York
becomes one to watch between two well known, well liked political heavyweights.
Highlights:
- Olivia Chow leads 36% to 30% over Adam Vaughan if she entered the race
- Among decided voters it is 44% to 36%
- Vaughan leads Chow among undecided voters; though it is within the margin of error
-30For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca
Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
Methodology
The poll surveyed a random sample of Spadina-Fort York residents by Smart IVR on June 27th,
2015. Mainstreet sampled a mixture of cell phones and landlines; results were weighted for age
and gender.
About Mainstreet
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels
of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public
affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently,
Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election and Februarys
by-election in Sudbury.

If the following candidates ran who would you vote for if an election were held
today?

40

30

20

All Voters
BREAKDOWNS

6%

14%

36%

44%

17%

5%

12%

30%

36%

10

Decided Only

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

OLIVIA CHOW (NDP)
33% 32%
41% 42% 35% 38%
3%
CAMILLE LABCHUK (GREEN)
4%
6%
8% 5%
5%
BENJAMIN SHARMA (CONSERVATIVE) 9%
12%
14% 13% 14%
10%
ADAM VAUGHAN (LIBERAL)
27% 30% 33% 29% 30% 29%
UNDECIDED
28% 23%
7%
7% 16%
18%
SAMPLE
64
104
244 194 289
317

And which party are you leaning toward voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)
4%
16%

51%
19%

11%

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

BREAKDOWNS
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE
UNDECIDED

CPC
50%
31%
18%

NDP
53%
31%
16%

LPC
71%
23%
6%

GP
53%
39%
8%