Learn How To Pick Value Stocks

5/29/2015
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Whenhypermarkets,onlineretailersandrealestate
developersofferdiscounts,thewholeworldgetstoknow.
ButspottingadiscountonDalalStreetislessobviousand
morecomplicated.SincethetimeofBenjaminGraham,the
gurusofvalueinvestinghavetriedvariouswaystoidentify
stocksthataretradingatadiscounttotheiractualvalue.
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Fringeparivar?
Defenceaerospace
(Buyingstocksthataretrading)
Whenyoubuyasharewithatremendousgrowthpotential,youareagrowthinvestor.Valueinvestingis
different,andinvolvespickingoutsharesthatarepricedbelowtheirintrinsicvalue.It'sacontrarianstrategy
becauseitrequiresinvestorstoembraceunlovedstocks.
"Whenyoupracticevalueinvesting,youarenotjumpingontothebandwagon.Youstandalone,"says
SankaranNaren,CIOofICICIPrudentialMutualFund.Butswimmingagainstthetidecanproveenormously
rewardingforthesimplereasonthatyoubuygoodstocksatbeatendownprices."Sinceyoubuyatalow
price,theprobabilityoflossofcapitalislower,"saysAtulKumar,HeadofEquities,QuantumMutualFund.
Tenmostaggressivefringe
elementsoftheParivar
FromthewellknownVHPtothelittleknown
HinduMakkalKatchi,createdtheirown
peculiarandoccasionallydisturbingnarrative.
TheuneasytrucebetweenPMModi&RSS
chiefBhagwat
HowRSShasgrowninthefirstyearofModi
government
Ourcoverstorythisweeklooksatthishugelysuccessfulalbeitcontrarianinvestingstrategy.Weputthe
200stocksintheS&PBSE200indexthrough10filters.Withtheapplicationofeachfilter,somestocks
droppedout.Intheendwewereleftwithjust14scrips.Ofthese14stocks,wehavelookedindetailatthe
Adanimayforayintodefence
fundamentalsofthe10scripsmostrecommendedbyanalysts.
manufacturingatMundra
AclutchofAdaniexecshasbeenmeeting
Valueversusprice
representativesoflargeoverseasdefencecosto
Thepricetoearnings(PE)andpricetobookvalue(PBV)ratiosarefavouritetoolsofvalueinvestors.Buta
exploretieupsformanufacturingdefence
lowPEorPBValonedoesnotmakeavaluestock.Infact,suchstockscouldwellbevaluetraps."Many
equipments.
PSUbanks,leveragedenterprisesandrealestatecompaniesaretradingbelowtheirbookvalue.Theyare
notvaluestocksbutvaluetraps,"saysNileshShah,ManagingDirectorofKotakMutualFund.Thisiswhy
noPSUbankmadeittoourfinallist.Ontheotherhand,aqualitystockatahighpriceisalsonotagood
investment.ThatiswhywehaveeliminatedallcompanieswithaPEofmorethan20andaPBVofmore
than5.
BPCL,alongwithotherpublicsectoroilmarketingcompanies,standstobenefitfromthegovernment's
decontrolofdieselprices.Theresultantsubsidyreductiononoilproductswillreduceitsworkingcapital
requirementanditsinterestcost.
Sinceinternationalcrudeoilpriceshavenowstabilised,thereshouldnotbeanyinventorylossesinthe
comingquarters.WhatmakesBPCLunique,however,isitsexposuretoforeignupstreamoilassetsin
BrazilandMozambique.
ThoughthecountersufferedwhencrudeoilpricesoftheBrentvarietycrashedfrom$115dollarsabarrelto
lessthan$40abarrel,therecentrecoveryishelpingBPCL.
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"SinceoilproductionfromassetsinBrazilandMozambiqueis23yearsaway,therecentfallincrudeoil
priceshasonlyasentimentalimpactonBPCLandthesamemaygetcorrectedduetotherecentsurgein
crudeoilprices,"saysSudeepAnand,Oil&GasAnalystatIDBICapital.
Toavoidthevaluetraps,wehaveincludedonlythosecompaniesthathaveconsistentlygeneratedprofitsin
thepastfiveyears.
Notonlythat,thesecompaniesshouldhaveregisteredatleasta10%annualisedgrowthinnetprofitduring
theseyears.Wealsotookacloselookattheoperatingmarginandselectedonlythosecompanieswitha
positiveoperatingmargin.Thiswastomakesurethatthenetprofitwascomingfrombusinessoperationsand
wasnotextraordinaryincome.
ICICIBank,ledbyrobustgrowthincreditandbetternetinterestmargins(NIMs),reportedahealthysetof
numbersintheMarchquarter.
However,slippagesfromrestructuredloansrosehigher,evenasthenumberofloansthatwererestructured
fell.Withthemanagementexpectingstressedassetformulationinthecurrentfiscalyeartobelowerthanlast
year's,concernsonassetqualityshouldbeallayed.
Thebank,withcapitaladequacyof17%,remainsextremelywellcapitalised.Analystsinsistthatitscapital
cushionismorethanadequatetoabsorbfurtherassetqualityshocks,aswellasexploitfuturecreditgrowth
opportunities.
ClytonFernandes,Analyst,EmkayGlobalFinancialServices,says,"Weexpectthebank'sprofitabilityduring
201415and201617tobehealthy,ledbyrobustbusinessgrowth,betterNIMandstablecreditcosts.After
therecentstockpricecorrection,weupgradedourratingfromAccumulatetoBuy."
Wealsotookintoaccountthereturnoncapitalemployed(ROCE)ratioaswellasthereturnonequity(ROE)
andreturnonnetworth(RONW).Thisensuredthatonlyefficientlyrunbusinessesmadethecut.Also,
companieswithaveryhighlevelofdebtcanberisky.So,allcompanieswithadebtequityratioofmorethan
2wereeliminated.
Thegovernment'sdecisiontoallocatedomesticnaturalgastoCNGandPNGdistributorshascomeinasa
boonforIndraprasthaGas.
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value...
August19,2013
10.19AMIST
March8,2009
Tags: valuestocks
February27,2012
Inadditiontothis,thefallininternationalnaturalgaspricesshouldalsoreducethecostforconsumersand
therebyrevivethecompany'svolumegrowthinthecomingyears.
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WithgaspipelinesalreadylaidacrossmostofDelhi,thecompany'shighcapexphaseisalsoalmostover.
BookValue
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Thiswillhelpitgeneratehighfreecashflowsinthecomingyears."WithanexpectedfreecashflowofRs
1,400crorebetween201415and201617,IndraprasthaGasmayalsogoforinorganicgrowthsmaller
acquisitionsinthecitygasdistributionspace,"saysarecentreportbyUKbasedinvestmentbankElara
Capital.
CorporateDossier
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Googlehastakenthewrapsoffitslatest
continuousfeedback.Theappraiser&appraisee AndroidOS,thesuccessortoLollipop.
arerequiredto'connect'fourtimeseveryyear. M,willboastnewwaystofetchinformation.
CanTantisteerSuzlontowardsgrowthafter
aneardeathexperience?
Whoshouldchangeourhabitstheleaderor
thefollower?
Marginofsafety
Oneabidingprincipleofvalueinvestingistobuyastockwithamarginofsafety.Themarginofsafetyisthe
differencebetweentheintrinsicvalueofthestockandthepriceyoupayforit.Iftheintrinsicvalueofa
stockisRs100anditisquotingatRs80,themarginofsafetyis20%.Thehigherthemarginofsafety,the
loweristheriskandhigherthereturnspotential.
TheerstwhileITbellwetherisinatransformativephaseunderitsnewCEOVishalSikka.Evenasthefirm
lagsbehindpeerssuchasTCSandHCLTech,SikkaaimstomakeInfosysa$20billioncompanyby2020
andreturntoanaboveindustrygrowthrate.
Hisstrategyincludesheavyminingthecompany'stop100clients,withdedicatedpartnersforeach,driving
upmarginsthroughautomation,squeezinghighershareofrevenuefromservicessuchasconsulting,and
acquisitions.
AnalystsareoptimisticaboutSikka'svisionoftakingInfosysawayfromitstraditionalmaintenancecentric
businessmodeltoanextgenerationtechnologysolutionsprovider.Itscurrentvaluationsmakeita
compellingbuy,despiteweaknessinearnings.
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/20150518/news/62323235_1_valuetrapsvaluestocksbookvalue/2
1/4
5/29/2015
SarabjitKaurNangra,Analyst,AngelBroking,says,"Thestockischeapatcurrentvaluations,tradingata
discounttoitspeerssuchasTCS.Webelievethegapinvaluationcannarrowdownoncegrowthpicksupat
Infosys."
Asmentionedearlier,evenagoodstockatahighpriceisariskyinvestment.Duringbullruns,investorscan
getswayedbyirrationalexuberance.In2000,SatyamComputerwastradingataPEof200.Manyinvestors
justifiedthisvaluationbycitingInfosys'PEof400.
LICHousingFinanceisadominantplayerinthemortgagefinancesegment.Since200607,thecompany
hasincreaseditsloanbookatmorethan25%compoundannualgrowthratecomparedtoindustryaverage
ofaround1517%.
Itsmarketshare,atnearly10%,hasalmostdoubledinthelastsevenyears.Disbursementshavebeen
largelydrivenbyindividualborrowersasegmentwhichwillsupportaloanbookgrowthofaround20%over
thenextthreeyears.
Assetqualityalsoremainshealthy.Analystsseeimprovementinmarginsasinterestratescomedowndue
toanenhancedfocusonhighyieldingdeveloperloans.
"Beingaleadplayerinthehousingfinancespacewithmarginimprovementtriggers,thecompanystandsto
benefitfromthefavourableinterestratecycle,whichwillresultinhigherearningsvisibilityandsuperior
returnratios,"saysKunalShah,Analyst,EdelweissSecurities.
SaysSanjayBakshi,AdjunctProfessorattheManagementDevelopmentInstitute,Gurgaon:"Youcan'tjustify
buyinganovervaluedstockjustbecauseotherscripsinthesectoraretradingatevenhighervaluations."On
theotherhand,ifyoubuyanundervaluedstock,younotonlyreducetheriskbutenhanceyourchancesof
earninghigherreturns.
M&MFinancialServices,forthepastseveralyears,hasbeengoingthroughabadpatch.Whiletheslowdown
incommercialvehiclesaleswasthetriggerforanearliercorrection,fearofapoormonsoonisdraggingthe
counternow.
However,analystsfeelwhilethecyclicalstresshasimpacteditsprofitability,theinherentbusinessmodelis
stillrobustand,therefore,thecompanywillbouncebackwhentheruraleconomystartsturningaround.
ThatiswhyRajivMehtaofIIFLIndiabelievesthecurrentvaluationlevelsprovideanaccumulation
opportunity.
2/4
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"By201617,weexpectRoA(returnonasset)toimproveto3.2%andRoE(returnonequity)toimproveto
20%,underpinnedbyaccelerationinassetgrowth,recoveryinNIMsandmoderationincreditcost,"hesays.
Mostinvestorsdon'tbuyastockforitsdividends.Evenso,theperiodicpaymentofdividendstoshareholders
isagoodindicatorofthecompany'sfinancialsoundness.What'smore,thedividendyield(whichisthe
dividendasapercentageoftheshareprice)ishighenough,itlendsamarginofsafetytothestock.
NMDC,becauseofthedrasticfallininternationalcommoditypricesandasluggishdemandfromdomestic
steelmills,hasbeenforcedtoreduceironorepricesinrecentmonths.
Thisistoensurethatsteelmillsdonotcontinuetorelyonimportstoavailofhighquality,lowcost,ore.
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(Page3of4)
value...
August19,2013
10.19AMIST
March8,2009
Tags: valuestocks
PricecuthasledtoasteadydeclineinNMDC'sstockprice,anditisnowemergingasagoodvaluepick,
giventhatitcontinuestogrowitsshareinthecountry'sironoreproductionatasteadypace.
February27,2012
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Also,beingthecheapestproducer,itboastsofthehighestoperatingmarginsinthesector.Ithasalso
embarkedonvalueadditionprojectsbysettinguppelletisationplantsaswellasa3milliontonneperannum
ultramegasteelplantinChhattisgarh.
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Inourstudy,wehaveincludedcompaniesthathaveconsistentlypaiddividendsforthepastfiveyears.
thefollower?
Also,thedividendpayout(whichisthedividendasapercentageoftheearningspershare)shouldhave
beenatleast10%oftheprofitineachofthefiveyears.
TheIndiandemandisexpectedtopickupsignificantlyduetolowerliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)pricesand
thisshouldhelptoimprovePetronetLNG'smargininthecomingquarters.
However,thecounterisunderpressurenowbecauseofitshighcost,longtermLNGpurchasingcontract.
Analysts,though,arehopefulthatthisproblemwillgetsolvedsoon.
"PetronetLNGhasbacktobackcontractswiththegasdistributorsGAIL,BPCLandIOCandPetronet
LNGexpectsthemtohonourthosecontracts,"saysSudeepAnand,Oil&GasAnalystatIDBICapital.
So,investorsshouldusethecurrentcorrectioninthecounterforlongtermaccumulation.
1/5
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Valueversusgrowth
Thoughvalueinvestingcanyieldhandsomereturns,ithasnotdonetoowellinthepastsixyears.Ina
recentreport,MumbaibasedPhillipsCapitalpointsoutthatvalueinvestingdoesnotworkwheninvestor
sentimentisdown.Between2009and2015,whentheslowdownintheGDPgrowthstalledprojectsand
hyperinflationdampenedinvestorsentiment,theMSCIIndiaValueindexunderperformedtheMSCIIndia
Growthindexbyalmost300basispoints.
However,PhillipsCapitalalsonotesthatthisissettochangebecausetheeconomyisnowgettingbackon
trackandinvestorsarewillingtotakemorerisks.
TheongoingpowersectorreformsinitiatedbythegovernmentbodewellforfinancierRuralElectrification
Corporation(REC).Whilethefinancialviabilityofstateelectricityboardsisimprovingwiththeirrestructuring,
stepstakenbythegovernmenttowardsaugmentingfuelsupplyarealsoencouraging.
REC'scompetitivepositionremainsstronginthepowerfinancingspace,supportedbyitsnodalagency
status,abilitytolendforlongertenures,andthebenefitoflowerfundingcost.
ItsNIMhassignificantlyimprovedoverthepastfewyears,aidedbyastrengthenedpricingpowerandhigher
shareofprivatesectorgeneration.
AkshayDalmia,Analyst,IIFL,says,"Thecompanyislikelytowitnessapickupindisbursementsand
assetgrowthoverthecomingthreeyears.ItwoulddeliverRoAofabove3%andRoEinexcessof20%in
thelongerrun."
Thebrokeragehasallocatedalmost36%ofitsmodelportfoliotovaluestocks."Asweexpecttheonsetofa
capacitycreationphase,valueinvestingwillsoonbecomethedominantinvestmentstrategy,"itconcludes.
Despitebeingoneofthefastgrowingbanksitsnetprofithasgrownatanannualisedrateof41%inthelast
fiveyearsitisstillquotingatreasonablevaluations.
YesBankisnowfocussingontheretailsegmentand,givenitsrelativelylowshare,thisshouldbeitsnext
growthengine.
2/5
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Duetohigherinterestrateofferedbythebankonitssavingsaccounts,itsCASA(currentandsavings
account)fundingbaseisalsobeenimprovingovertheyears,helpingthebankbringdownitscostoffunds.
Duetoincreasedreachandsofteninginterestratestructure,itsNIMshouldimprovefurtherfromthecurrent
3.2%.
Whatnottoexpect
Afewcaveatsforinvestors.Valueinvestingisanothernameforpatientinvesting.Don'texpectfireworksfrom
yourvaluepicks."Valueinvestingreducesthedownsiderisktosomeextentbutvaluestocksalsotaketime
toappreciate.Thestocksmayremainatadiscountforaprolongedtime,"warnsDineshThakkar,Chairman
andManagingDirector,AngelBroking.
Thenagain,youneedtoholdthesestocksforthelongtermtobeabletogetthebestreturns.WarrenBuffett,
arguablythemostsuccessfulvalueinvestorofalltime,isstillholdingstockshebought3040yearsago.
Buffettsayshisfavouriteholdingperiodis"forever".Whilewedonotagreewiththisphilosophyofinvestingin
perpetuity,thestockswehaveshortlistedforyoucouldoffergoodreturnsoverthenext810years.Happy
(value)investing.
HOWWEDIDIT
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Here'showweapplied10filterstoidentifyvaluestocksfromtheBSE200universe.
1.Westartedwiththe200stocksintheS&PBSE200index.Sinceitisalargecapindex,smallandmidcap
stocksgeteliminated
2.Toavoidvaluetraps,onlycompaniesthatmadeprofitsduringthepastfiveyearswereconsidered29
companiesfellout,leavingonly171stocks.
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(Page4of4)
value...
August19,2013
10.19AMIST
March8,2009
Tags: valuestocks
3.Oftheseprofitablecompanies,onlythosewithatleast10%annualisednetprofitgrowthwereconsidered
67companiesfellout,leavingonly104stocks.
February27,2012
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4.Next,onlycompanieswithpositiveoperatingmarginwereretainedtoensurethatthenetprofitisfrom
businessoperationsandnotfromotherincomes1stockmovedout,leaving103stocks.
5.Whileprofitsaregood,theymustjustifytheinvestmentinthebusiness.Onlystockswithatleast10%
ROCEwerekept8companiesfellthrough,leavinguswith95stocks.
6.Also,theRONWshouldbeatleast15%toensurethatonlycompaniesgeneratingenoughprofitsare
considered.17companiesmovedout,leavingonly78stocks.
7.Thenextfilterwasadebttoequityratiooflessthan2.Noneofthecompanieshadadebtequityratioof
morethan2soall78stocksremained.
8.Next,onlystocksthatpaiddividendsinthepastfiveyearsanddistributedatleast10%oftheirprofitsas
dividendwerekept20companiesfellout,leavinguswith58stocks.
9.Agoodcompanycanbeabadbuyatahighprice.StockswithaPEofover20werekeptout40high
pricedstocksfellout,leavinguswith18stocks.
10.Anothervaluationmetricisthepricetobookvalue(PBV).ThePBVcanvarygreatly,sowekeptaliberal
cutoffof5.Threecompaniesgotdropped,leavinguswith15stocks.
11.Lastly,onlystockswithadividendyieldofatleast1%wereconsidered.Onecompanymovedout.
Leavinguswith14valuepicks.
Ofthese,wehaveanalysed10stocksforyouindetail.These10stockshavebeenchosenonthebasisof
analysts'recommendations.
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