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Abstract
This paper presents the impact of climate change on surface water resources of Ilorin. The study
involved the collection of data on meteorological and hydrological variables. The hydrometeorological
variables were subjected to statistical, trend, and reduction pattern analysis. The statistical analysis was used
to determine statistical parameters while Mann-Kendall and regression analyses were used to detect the
significance of the trend in each variable. Reduction pattern analysis was used to depict the fluctuation of the
variables over time. Based on the analyses, it was discovered that there is tendency for an increase in rainfall
while there is tendency for decrease in evaporation. It was also discovered that there will be no significant
change in min. temperature, max. temperature, Oyun streamflow, and Asa streamflow.
Keywords: Climate change, Water resources, hydro-meteorological variables, Reservoir
1.0
Introduction
The surface of the earth is heated by solar
radiation emanating from the sun at short wavelengths
between 0.15 and 5 m (Burns 2003). Each square
meter of the earth receives an average of 342 watts of
solar radiation throughout the year (Burns 2003).
Approximately one-third of the incoming solar
radiation is reflected back to space in the form of
thermal infrared, or longer-wave radiation, at
wavelengths of 350 m (Burns 2003). Of the
remainder, a portion is partly absorbed by the
atmosphere, but most (168 watts per square meter) is
absorbed by land, ocean, and ice surfaces (Burns 2003).
Some of the outgoing infrared radiation is
absorbed by naturally occurring atmospheric gases
principally water vapor (H2O)as well as carbon
dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), methane (CH4), nitrous
oxide (N2O), and clouds. This absorption is termed the
natural greenhouse effect because these gases, which
are termed greenhouse gases, operate much like a
greenhouse: they are transparent to incoming shortwave radiation, but opaque to outgoing infrared
radiation, trapping a substantial portion of such
radiation and re- radiating much of this energy back to
the earths surface. This natural process is critical to the
sustenance of life on earth, elevating surface
temperatures by about 33 Celsius (C) (Burns
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
inputs (Burns 2003).There are at least four approaches
that are used to study the potential impact of climate
change on the hydrology and water resources of
catchments and river basins: 1. Estimates obtained by
applying arbitrary changes in climate input to
hydrological models, 2. Spatial analogue techniques, 3.
Temporal analogue techniques, and 4. The use of
results from GCMs, either directly or by downscaling
(or disaggregating) to the appropriate catchment scale.
These approaches provide insight into the behaviour of
hydrological processes in a higher temperature and
increased or decreased precipitation regime, but the
hydrological changes do not arise from and are not
necessarily consistent with the physical forcing changes
and interaction that are responsible for climate change
associated with increased concentrations of GHG in the
atmosphere.(Arora & Boer 2001)
The potential hydrological impacts of climate
change estimated by changing the climate inputs to
hydrological models are studied by a number of
researchers including: Singh and Kumar (1997), Roads
et al (1996), Miller and Russell (1992), Kavvas et al
(2006), Arora and Boer (2001), to mention but a few.
Simulated changes in precipitation, runoff, and
soil moisture may be used directly to estimate some
hydrological aspects of climate change. Miller and
Russell (1992) for example determined the change in
annual runoff due to increase in GHG in concentrations
for 33 major river basins around the world using the
output from Giddard Institute for Space Studies GCM
and found that the majority of river basins experienced
an increase in mean annual unrouted runoff.
2.0
2.1
Statistical Analysis
(1)
Where = Mean
X1, X2, ...., Xn = Variables
Median
The median is another measure of central
location that, unlike the mean, is not affected by
extremely large or extremely small data values. When
determining the median, the data values are first ranked
in order from the smallest value to the largest value. If
there is an odd number of data values, the median is the
middle value; if there is an even number of data values,
the median is the average of the two middle values.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of variability
that are based on all the data in a set. Standard deviation
can also be described as the square root of variance.
The formula for calculating variance is shown in
equation below.
S2 =
(2)
(3)
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
Because the unit of measure for the standard
deviation is the same as the unit of measure for the data,
it is usually preferable to use the standard deviation as
the descriptive measure of variability.
CS =
(4)
Where
Minimum
This refers to the minimum value out of a given
set of variables. It has no definite expression.
a=
(5)
Maximum
Maximum refers to the highest value out of a
given set of variables. It is gotten by comparing all the
variables in the set and picking the one with the highest
value.
Skewness
Skewness can be defined as the lack of
symmetry of a distribution. The expression for
coefficient of skewness is given below
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mean
4.83
6.14
32.02
97.19
163.54
182.84
173.11
149.23
241.72
139.01
14.32
4.81
Median
0.00
1.50
23.75
100.25
150.40
171.15
162.95
134.75
261.00
144.00
4.95
0.00
Std. Dev
11.77
9.00
25.15
52.33
80.14
70.68
79.95
79.77
68.49
59.21
18.88
12.12
Min.
0.00
0.00
0.00
25.80
35.20
72.50
81.00
44.50
112.60
42.50
0.00
0.00
Max.
39.30
33.10
92.10
223.00
355.70
360.70
394.10
334.60
343.60
248.30
55.60
46.60
Skewness
2.46
1.76
0.77
0.67
0.66
0.84
1.35
1.11
-0.44
0.07
1.10
2.89
Parameters
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mean
28.45
25.99
28.52
26.84
26.65
25.75
25.06
28.08
26.53
28.32
30.12
30.32
Median
33.30
34.39
35.35
34.17
31.80
30.35
28.75
28.62
29.40
30.90
33.27
33.43
Std. Dev.
12.29
15.46
14.77
14.32
12.10
11.47
11.01
6.96
9.36
9.75
10.38
10.39
Min.
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Max.
34.73
36.54
38.74
36.20
34.13
35.66
35.08
34.67
34.46
33.80
35.59
35.76
Skewness
-2.11
-1.22
-1.56
-1.50
-1.89
-1.86
-1.94
-3.71
-2.56
-2.82
-2.81
-2.86
Parameters
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
Table 3 Summary of the statistical analysis for Min. Temperature (c)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mean
18.54
19.61
22.31
21.98
21.20
20.94
20.30
21.79
21.34
21.10
20.99
20.58
Median
19.50
21.25
23.49
23.40
22.60
22.00
21.50
21.50
21.42
21.40
21.57
20.60
Std. Dev
4.83
6.88
5.48
5.43
5.37
5.41
4.99
1.55
0.94
1.28
1.71
1.96
Min.
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
18.30
18.00
18.39
16.60
16.20
Max.
23.61
25.96
26.42
25.00
23.90
25.67
22.71
26.10
22.53
23.46
23.39
24.49
Skewness
-3.18
-2.61
-3.91
-4.09
-3.82
-3.58
-4.14
0.91
-2.36
-0.60
-0.96
-0.02
Parameters
Table 4
Parameters
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mean
7.83
9.03
7.26
5.43
3.55
2.88
2.47
2.25
2.35
2.84
5.51
6.80
Median
8.05
9.65
7.40
5.90
3.53
2.90
2.50
2.35
2.45
2.80
5.60
5.60
Std. Dev
3.33
3.38
3.01
1.92
1.22
0.91
0.80
0.74
0.38
0.65
1.57
1.57
Min.
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Max.
12.40
13.80
13.60
8.50
5.50
4.20
3.30
3.10
3.00
3.84
8.00
8.00
Skewness
-0.74
-0.83
-0.30
-1.51
-1.64
-2.28
-2.28
-1.87
-1.06
-1.10
-0.57
-0.57
Table 5 Summary of the statistical analysis for Asa Stream Flow (x106m3)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mean
1.45
1.01
1.25
3.26
11.63
15.80
26.62
48.43
62.61
52.45
2.39
2.65
Median
1.48
0.99
1.29
2.90
12.05
14.90
17.55
35.00
58.76
43.67
19.01
2.21
Std. Dev
0.74
0.64
0.83
3.39
5.77
8.19
20.83
37.50
37.86
24.57
14.96
1.92
Min.
0.15
0.07
0.04
0.00
1.89
2.31
1.13
5.74
9.50
15.80
3.47
0.15
Max.
2.96
3.09
3.10
13.19
22.33
33.20
70.00
145.00
147.20
93.76
69.43
7.46
Skewness
-0.04
1.72
0.59
2.33
0.24
0.22
0.96
1.62
0.48
0.41
1.78
1.17
Parameters
Table 6 Summary of the statistical analysis for Oyun Stream Flow (x106m3)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mean
0.34
0.77
1.73
1.89
1.45
1.77
1.64
1.45
3.97
1.94
1.46
1.15
Median
0.04
0.38
1.42
1.59
1.10
1.44
1.12
1.40
3.75
1.84
0.82
0.37
Std. Dev
0.61
0.95
1.11
1.04
1.07
1.26
1.90
1.17
1.65
0.97
1.63
1.86
Min.
0.00
0.02
0.43
0.63
0.64
0.79
0.51
0.13
1.32
0.65
0.03
0.00
Max.
2.27
3.66
5.07
5.14
5.44
6.52
9.24
3.97
9.27
3.87
5.90
7.70
Skewness
2.35
2.09
1.97
1.90
2.96
3.09
3.74
0.89
1.82
0.67
1.81
2.71
Parameters
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
Mann-Kendall Analysis
Let the time series consist of n data points and
Ti and Tj are two sub-sets of data where i=1, 2, 3, ...,
n-1 and j=i+1, i+2, i+3,..., n. Each data point Ti is
used as a reference point and is compared with all
the Tj data points such that:
Sign (T) =
(6)
(7)
The variance for the S-statistic is defined by:
2 =
(8)
in which ti denotes the number of ties to extent i.
The test statistic ZS can be calculated as:
ZS =
(9)
Table
Hydrometeorological
Autocorrelation
Parameter
Factor
Kendall's S
Zs
positive trendSignificance at
Remarks
5% level
Evaporation
0.727
-90
-2.888
NO
Rainfall
0.219
94
3.082
YES
Min. Temperature
0.326
31
1.038
NO
Max. Temperature
0.383
0.097
NO
Trend is not
significant
Trend is
significant
Trend is not
significant
Trend is not
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
significant
Oyun Streamflow
0.262
10
0.292
NO
Asa Streamflow
0.092
-40
-1.265
NO
2.3
Regression Analysis
Trend is not
significant
Trend is not
significant
ACF
T LBQ
Fig. 1
2.3
Regression
Analysis:
RAINFALL
versus YEAR
Predictor
Coef SE Coef
2.3.1
Constant
-2260
YEAR
Linear regression
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
Total
19 8720.0
Analysis of Variance
Source
DF
Regression
SS
MS
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3
Regression
Parameter
Equation
Evaporation
Y = -0.203X + 410
Rainfall
Statistical
significance (P
Sample Correlation
R-Square
0.036
62.20%
Y = 1.18X 2260
0.161
0.807
10.60%
Max. Temperature
Y = -0.063X + 152
0.865
0.364
0.20%
Min. Temperature
Y = -0.145X + 309
0.477
0.199
2.90%
Asa Streamflow
Y = -0.166X + 336
0.147
0.273
6.60%
Oyun Streamflow
Y = 0.003X - 5.1
0.007
0.693
0.70%
value)
Multiple Regression
Q=RT )
Q = -0.005R - 0.036T + 3.090
Oyun streamflow and Rainfall/Evaporation (
Q=RE)
Q = -0.008R 0.114E + 3.029
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
Oyun streamflow and Rainfall/Evaporation/Mean
Temperature ( Q=RET )
streamflow
Q = -0.056R +1.881
and
Rainfall/Mean
Q = -0.037T + 2.584
Oyun streamflow and Evaporation ( Q=E )
Q = -0.004E + 2.155
2.4
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
Rainfall
% change
Max.
Temp.
% change
Min.
Temp.
% change
R.
Humidity
% change
evaporatio
n
% change
Asa
discharge
% change
Oyun
discharge
1989-1993
-19%
3%
0%
3%
50%
-10%
0%
1994-1998
-0.90%
3%
5%
1%
25%
38%
-50%
1999-2003
-0.90%
6%
5%
13%
0%
-10%
-50%
2004-2008
20%
-13%
-10%
-13%
-25%
-24%
0%
Periods
% change
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
100.73mm over the 20 year period. From the
analysis, it was observed that rainfall is usually at its
peak between May and September, and rainfall is at
its minimum between December and February. For
the maximum temperature of Ilorin from 1989-2008,
the maximum value is 38.74c, the minimum value is
15.88c, and the mean value is 27.55c. It was also
observed that the maximum temperature is highest
between February and April, which can be referred
to as the peak of dry season. The minimum
temperature has a minimum value of 11.11c, a
maximum value of 26.42c, and a mean value of
20.89c. It was observed from the analysis that the
minimum temperature has two peak months; March
and August. Also, it was observed that the minimum
value from January-July is 11.11c while the
minimum value ranged between 16c and 18.3c
from August-December. Evaporation of Ilorin for the
20 year period under consideration has a minimum
value of 1.46mm, a maximum value of 13.800mm,
and a mean of 4.89mm. It was observed that the
evaporation value for January-March is very high
compared to the evaporation value for AprilDecember. Asa streamflow has a monthly maximum
value of 147.20x106m3, a monthly minimum value of
5.64x106m3, and a monthly mean value of
19.13x106m3. The peak streamflow occurs in August,
which corresponds to one of the months with
maximum rainfall. The minimum flow occurs in
April. Oyun streamflow has a monthly maximum
value of 9.27x106m3 in September, a monthly
minimum value of 0.001x106m3 in January, and a
monthly mean value of 1.63x106m3.
Mann-Kendall
The Rainfall for Ilorin has a test statistic ZS
value of 3.082, which is greater than 1.96 (test
statistic for a significance level of 5% i.e. Z0.025).
This result shows that a statistically significant
positive trend is demonstrated for Rainfall i.e.
rainfall for Ilorin has been increasing over time and
the trend is likely to continue. The Maximum
Temperature has a test statistic ZS value of 0.097,
which is less than 1.96 (test statistic for a
significance level of 5% i.e. Z0.025), meaning that a
statistically significant positive trend is not
demonstrated for Max. Temperature, this means that
the increase in max. temperature of Ilorin is not
significant.
The Minimum Temperature for
Ilorin has a test statistic ZS value of 1.038, which is
less than 1.96 (test statistic for a significance level of
5% i.e. Z0.025). This shows that a statistically
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
observed that there is a negative correlation between
evaporation and time (year) i.e. there will be
continuous decline in evaporation in Ilorin. Asa
streamflow has a R2 value of 0.066, meaning that
there is a very weak linear relationship between Asa
streamflow and Year, and the trend line is negative.
From the regression equation of Asa streamflow- Y
= -0.166X + 336, it was observed that there is a
negative correlation between Asa streamflow and
time i.e. the streamflow of Asa will decrease relative
to time. Oyun streamflow has a R2 value of 0.003,
indicating a very weak linear relationship between
Oyun streamflow and Year. The regression equation
for Oyun streamflow- Y = 0.003X - 5.1.shows that
there will be a decline in Oyun streamflow over time
but the rate of streamflow reduction will be low.
Reduction Pattern
From the rainfall record of 1989-2008 at
Ilorin, the average rainfall was 110mm. From 19891993, rainfall reduced to 89mm, showing a negative
change tendency with a percentage difference of
19%. From 1994-1998, rainfall rose to 109mm and
the situation continued from 1999-2003. From 20042008, rainfall at Ilorin rose sharply to 132mm, with a
percentage difference of 20%. This result show that
rainfall will continue to increase with time. The
average of the maximum temperature record was
31c. From 1989 to 1993, the maximum temperature
rose to 32c, showing a positive change tendency
with a percentage difference of 3%. The value stood
at 32c from 1994 to 1998 and it further increased to
33c from 1999 to 2003, with a percentage difference
of 6%. However, it reduced to 27c from 2004 to
2008, with a percentage difference of 13%. From the
result, it was observed that the reduction in
maximum temperature is greater than the increment
i.e. maximum temperature will reduce considerably
over a long period of time.
For
minimum
temperature, the average was 21c. From 1989 to
1993, the minimum temperature remained constant,
with a 0% change. From 1994 to 1998, it rose to
22c, showing a positive change tendency, with a
percentage difference of 5%. The situation continued
from 1999 to 2003, with the minimum temperature
standing at 22c. From 2004 to 2008, the minimum
temperature reduced to 19c, showing a negative
change tendency with 10% difference. This means
that the minimum temperature will reduce with time
but the rate of reduction might be low.
For the
evaporation record, the average was 4mm. From
1989 to 1993, the value increased to 6mm, with a
positive percentage difference of 50%. A positive
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
evaporation, it was observed that there is a negative
relationship between Oyun streamflow and
rainfall/evaporation. The regression of Oyun
streamflow with mean temperature also showed a
negative relationship. This means that Oyun
streamflow will reduce as rainfall, evaporation and
mean temperature increase. From the regression
analysis of rainfall with evaporation, the result
showed that there is a negative correlation between
Conclusions and Recommendations
Conclusions
From the analysis of the meteorological and
hydrological data of Ilorin using five methods of
analysis, it was observed that rainfall showed a
positive trend to a significant extent. Also, it was
observed that the month in which the peak rainfall
occurred in each of the years changed over time; this
can be attributed to the change in climatic conditions.
From the result of the Mann-Kendall analysis, this
trend (increase in rainfall) will likely continue in
future i.e. rainfall will continue to increase with time.
Also from the analysis, it was observed that the
streamflow of the two rivers has reduced over time.
The result of most of the analysis method adopted
also revealed that the decrease in the streamflow of
the two rivers is not likely to persist. All the other
variables
(maximum
temperature,
minimum
temperature, evaporation, relative humidity) also
showed negative trend over time. This shows that the
variables will reduce in relation to time. This
reduction trend is due to the change in climate.
References
Arora V.K, Boer G.J (2001), Effects of simulated
climate change on the hydrology of major river
basins, vol. 106, 33335-33348.
Burns W.C.G (2003), The Worlds Water: The
Biennial Report on Fresh Water Resources, chapter
5, p. 120-122
Da Cunha L.V, De Oliveira R.P, Nascimento J,
Ribeiro L. (2005), Impacts of climate change on
water resources: A Case Study On Portugal
Horacek S, Kasparek L, Novicky O (2008),
Estimation of climate change impact on water
resources by using Bilan water balance model, IOP
conference series: Earth and Environmental Science,
Vol. 4, 1-7.
2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 28 July 2010
Wigley, T.M.L. (2001), The Science of Climate
Change. In E. Claussen (ed.), Climate Change: