Академический Документы
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March 2014
Table of Contents
Section
Overview
Page
Project background
Feasibility Assessment
2.1
2.2
14
2.3
23
2.4
34
2.5
37
2.6
Summary
61
64
Annexures
67
Appendices
1
Section 1
Project background
March 2014
1
Andhra Pradesh
District
Krishna
1.2 million
119.8
Languages spoken
English, Telugu
Literacy rate
69%
March 2014
2
Particulars
Plotted development
190.61
Golf course
45.93
10.43
Residential apartments
82.62
Office
72.39
51.22
Education complex
19.02
Health care
17.48
IT Park SEZ
18.94
10
Retail
4.10
Total Area in
Acres
512.74
March 2014
3
Number of interviews in
Vijayawada
Number of interviews
outside Vijayawada region
Industry Associations
Commercial &
entertainment
Hospital
6
(including International
Property Consultants such as
JLL and C&W)
Hotels
IT/ITes
Others
24
25
Total
March 2014
4
Section 2
Feasibility Assessment
March 2014
5
3
The proposed location offers several
advantages
Hypothesis
1. Average estimates from various sources such as IMF, Trading Economics, World Bank,
March 2014
6
Section 2.1
The Tier 2 growth story
March 2014
7
Top 6 cities
comprise 23%
of the GDP1
1.3 X USA
1.4 X Japan
Top 6 cities
comprise 26%
of the GDP1
5 X China
4 X Brazil
Top 6 cities
comprise 31%
of the GDP1
3 X India
Timeline
X Represents the number of times GDP (nominal) has grown over last 10 years till FY 12
Source: Brookings Institution, World bank estimates, PwC analysis
March 2014
8
Rapid urbanisation in India has brought its own set of challenges for top
cities....(1/2)
Urban population is expected to increase to 600 mn by 2030...
600+
+225
Urban Population
(In Million)
600+
375
223
Number of cities
291
340
Total Population
Million
Urbanization %1
1991
2001
2011
2030
856
1,040
1,210
1,470
26%
28%
31%
41%
Tier 1 > 4 mn
Tier 2
1 mn - 4 mn
Tier 3 & 4
< 1 mn
Source: Worlds Cities Summit- CII, US Census Bureau, PwC Research & Analysis
93
52
158 13
106
55
9
33
337
195
2008
6,000
5,000
2030
Infrastructural challenges
Ground water
availability, power shortages
and drinking water shortages
March 2014
10
As a result, growth in recent years has spilled over to other Tier 2 cities
Vijayawada
Delhi
Mumbai
Chennai
Kolkata
2004
Bangalore
Hyderabad
2008 onwards
Ahmedabad
Pune
India had 4 major metro cities - Commercial and industrial activity has
quickly expanded in the last decade, leading to emergence of newer cities
which are driving growth in India
Infrastructural challenges and space constraints in Delhi has led to
growth expanding to 4 satellite towns
Mumbai has not been able to sustain its growth momentum and
infrastructure development; Pune as well as Navi Mumbai have emerged
as hubs of commercial and business activity
Bangalore and Hyderabad have started facing issues regarding real
estate costs, power and water shortages due to which cities such as
Mysore and Vizag have emerged as alternatives
Emerging
cities
Other
cities
CAGR
55,054 GDP
19%
45,161
17%
35,644
16%
28%
8%
Finance, Insu
rance, Real 11%
Estate &
Business
Services
Trade, Ho
tel, Trans
port and
Communi
cations
9%
Manufacturi
ng
27%
8%
26%
Manufactur
ing
6%
Healthcare
8%
8%
15%
Construction 7%
17%
Others
14%
Agriculture
16%
16%
18%
18%
18%
15%
FY 07
FY 10
7%
3%
Others
Retail,
Hospitality,
Education
FY 13
8
7
3
1
2
Tier 2 cities of India are definitely lucrative for us for
several reasons. Besides the cost factor, one gets an amazing
talent pool in Tier 2 cities. We have plans to extensively
expand in Tier 2 cities of India in the next two-three years
Genpact
LEPL Projects Limited Feasibility Study
PwC
City name
Mainstream IT firms
with delivery centres1
Kochi
IT/ITes, Manufacturing
Trivandrum
Mysore
IT/ITeS
Infosys, Wipro
Coimbatore
IT/ITeS, Education,
Healthcare, Manufacturing
Bhubaneswar
IT/ITeS, Education,
Engineering and R&D
Vishakhapatna
m
IT/ITeS, Healthcare,
Manufacturing
Jaipur
IT/ITeS, Education,
Manufacturing
Genpact, Infosys
Chandigarh
IT/ITeS, Education
HCL, Wipro, ST
Microelectronics, Sapient
Vijayawada
FirstSource, domestic IT
companies
March 2014
13
Section 2.2
Vijayawada - An emerging destination
March 2014
14
Industry
sector
Manufacturing
24%
11%
Agriculture
Sector
Construction
8%
Trade, Hotels &
Restaurants
13%
19%
11%
Others
6% 8%
Transport
& Storage
Services
sector
Banking &
Insurance
Cumulative
investment
from FY11 -13
(INR bn)
Manufacturing
5%
1,341
Construction
7%
306
5%
35
7%
103
15%
n/a
Transportation, Logistics,
Warehousing & Packaging
11%
473
Agriculture Sector
Total
2%
7%
n/a
2,722
Historically, Hyderabad has attracted a larger share of investments Hyderabad accounts for 9% of the
states GDP, as compared to 5-6% of Krishna/Guntur districts.
However, with the bifurcation of the state, high growth sectors such as
transportation, logistics, construction, business services and food processing can gain
traction in these districts
Source: PwC Analysis, SEC AP Survey 2012-13, NSDC Skill Gap
Study for AP (2013), 12th 5 year Plan AP
March 2014
15
Hyderabad
Hyderabad
Seemandhra
New capital:
Vijayawada ?
Andhra Pradesh has been pro-active in offering incentives under the ICT Policy, 2010-2015
such as single window clearance under APIIC, subsidy on lease rentals and exemptions
from certain regulations to promote IT/ITES industry in the state. However, most of these
investments have been channelled to Hyderabad
Absence of political will and lack of development of industrial ecosystem in the region has
discouraged companies from committing investments to the VGTM region
Vijayawada is being touted as the capital of the new state due to its inherent locational
advantages, superior connectivity and status as a major trading hub in Andhra Pradesh. If
Vijayawada becomes the new capital, it can radically alter the investment climate in the
region and provide significant boost to investment in the region
LEPL Projects Limited Feasibility Study
PwC
INR 500 bn
The Andhra Pradesh Reorganization Bill 2013
provides for a special development package for the
backward regions of the successor state of Andhra
Pradesh, in particular for the districts of Rayalaseema
and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
While the quantum of the package has not been
announced, it is estimated to be around INR 500 bn
which can provide a huge boost to the region
Significant
excise-duty
concessions
Higher
central
budgetary
allocation
Higher share
of central
grants
Special-category states obtain funds (Centrallysponsored schemes and external aid) in the ratio
of 90:10 grants versus loans, as opposed to 30:70
for other states under regular funds
Note 1 As per announcement from Union Minister for Rural Development, Trade press
March 2014
17
Projected CAGR
15%
CAGR
18%
6,025
1.
2.
31,814
15,406
FY 02
FY 07
FY 12
FY 17
Investment inflows for a year has been represented by the annual gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) for Industry, as reported by ASI. GFCF is net increase in physical assets for
industries (investment minus disposals). Industry as defined by ASI includes factories employing 10 or more workers using power; and those employing 20 or more workers without using
power. It also includes certain utilities and servicing units such as electricity, water supply, cold storage, repairing of motor vehicles etc.
Vijayawada, Guntur, Tenali and Mangalagiri
March 2014
18
2,495
1,162
35
584
103
580
n/a
Agriculture Sector
Construction
Real estate
Transportation &
logistics
473
217
679
IT/ITes
Hospitality
306
High
1,341
Construction
Trade, Hotels & Restaurants
Incremental
manpower requirement
requirementt
Manufacturing
Cumulative
investment in 2011-13
(INR bn)
Agriculture
Mining &
quarrying
Banking and
Food processing
insurance
Chemicals &
Auto and autopharma
components
Textiles and leather
Recreational
services
Education and
other services
n/a
Low
Low
High 15
March 2014
19
Sectors such as agri-processing, leather and textiles etc are suited for KrishnaGuntur districts. Growth in these segments can generate employment for over
80,000+ people in the region
Types of industries
Leather and
textiles
Manpower
demand 2012-172
Total : 12,000+1
Total : 25,000+1
S/SS: 18,496
MS: 12,133
Others
S/SS: 6,000
MS: 4,000
S Skilled
Opportunities
Challenges
MS Minimally skilled
High level of
fragmentation and
challenges in scaling up
March 2014
20
Services (IT/ITeS, banking) will also find this region attractive due to cost
advantages and availability of skilled labour pool
Manpower
demand 2012-172
Types of industries
S/SS: 14,210
MS: 6,395
Services
Transportation, logi
stics, warehousing
and packaging
Ancillary
sectors
Banking , financial
and insurance
MS: 12,381
Construction
S/SS: 300,000+
MS: 121,100
Tourism, travel
and hospitality
Opportunities
The Krishna-Godavari belt has significant agricultural
horticulture and marine produce, however current
cold storage capacity is only 6% of the total
produce and needs to be augmented
Vijayawada is a major commercial centre to a host of
wholesale and retail activities dealing in consumer
goods, textiles, automobiles and industrial products
Scope for setting up an integrated logistics park
and strengthening cold storage chains
Strategically located close to major IT hubs of
Hyderabad, Chennai and Bangalore
Large catchment of engineering graduates, low cost
of living and recent development of retail, malls and
entertainment complexes
Setting up of SEZ and STPI in the region
Rapid development of infrastructure in the region
expansion of road network, creation of commercial
and office space and expansion of the cities will lead
to a large manpower deployment in the construction
and real estate sector
Social infrastructure in terms of hotels and tourism is
likely to receive a boost as business activity increases
in the region.
Challenges
This will lead to incraesd demand for social infrastructure such as retail, entertainment and hospitality
LEPL Projects Limited Feasibility Study
PwC
S Skilled
SS Semi-skilled
MS Minimally skilled
March 2014
21
Vijayawada has in place most of the key enablers for emerging as a key
investment destination
Current
strength
Political
Human capital
Infrastructural
Rationale
Vijayawada is a major transit point major National Highways pass through the
city, largest railway junction in South, largest and busiest bus terminal in Asia
and a domestic airport
Within the main city limits, land availability is relatively scarce and is becoming
expensive. As a result, demand is likely to move to the peripheral regions as the
city expands
City infrastructure
and utilities (roads, water, power)
Social Infrastructure
(Retail, hospitality, entertainment &
medical)
Vijayawada is the third largest city of Andhra Pradesh. The city has witnessed
rapid urbanization and rise in per capita income levels, partly driven by NRI
remittances
Lack of employment options has led to migration to other cities. Due to lack of
social infrastructure, middle management is reluctant to move to the city
hampering growth of sectors such as IT /ITeS.
Low
Medium
High
Absent/Nil
March 2014
22
Section 2.3
Vijayawada city attractiveness
March 2014
23
Business destination
Vijayawada city
attractiveness
High
Medium
Low
March 2014
24
Like most other Indian cities, Vijaywada too has significant population
growth with rising income levels, partly driven by NRI remittances
Vijayawada is the third largest city of Andhra Pradesh
and has witnessed rapid urbanization and rise in income
levels
2001
2011
Hyderabad
Ranga Reddy
63,600
1
2021
Vizag
Krishna
53,200
51,000
44,400
NRI remittances play a key role in the economic growth of the city
In the recent decades, there has been a strong emphasis on seeking employement opportunities outside India (US, UK etc) a sizeable number
of resdient households in the city have family members who work abroad. A significant proportion of investments in Vijayawada comprise of NRI
remittances from outside India
Vijayawada has been admitted as a sister city to California in US since 2003 by the Modesto Sister Cities International(MSCI), a nonprofit, community-based organization due to its strong ties with the NRIs
Almost every upper middle class household in Vijayawada has one
or more children working in the US or UK
President, Builders Association
Source: CII (Blueprint for KGPG Belt), Discussion with industry participants
March 2014
25
The city is a major transit hub with good road and rail connectivity
Vijayawada is well connected to the three major regions of Andhra Pradesh
Air Transport
Domestic airport located at Gannavaram, about 20 km
from the city, connects Vijayawada to major metros.
Regional airline, Air Costa, is also ramping up
operations to increase flights in the city
An international airport is being considered in
Vijayawada with the Government signing an MoU
with the Airports Authority of India (AAI) for upgradation of the existing operational airport.
Government has agreed in principle for acquisition of
additional 492 acres of land.
Rail Transport
Largest railway junction on the South Central
Railway network handling more than 320 trains
including both passenger and freight trains per day
Road Transport
Large network of state highways and district roads
with 3 National Highways, the NH5 from Chennai
to Kolkata, NH-9 from Machilipatnam to Mumbai
and NH 221 passing through the city
Second largest and busiest bus terminal in Asia
The Urban development authority has allocated 35% of the total capital investment for Vijayawada (estimated to be INR
1,1110 crores) towards improvement of road infrastructure in the city. Work is also under progress to widen the length of
Hyderabad-Vijayawada-Machilipatnam stretch on NH-9
LEPL Projects Limited Feasibility Study
PwC
March 2014
26
Key messages
PwC Comments
Availability of land has been a major challenge in Vijayawada as land has become scarce and
expensive within the city. The Government has not been able to implement any major development
projects as it does not own major tracts of land in and around the city yet
It is hard to acquire land in Vijayawadas city limits and commercial activity needs to expand
outside the city boundaries. Landholding in the peripheral regions is fragmented, and the
Government does not own much land around the city yet
-
Infrastructure availability in the city is not an issue water, power are manageable and
connectivity is excellent. The only thing is that the city has to expand as land is becoming scarce and
expensive
-
Development of city
infrastructure has been slow
Expenditure on road sector
as on 2011 (INR crores)
Vijayawad
a
12
Guntur
Tenali
0.9
Mangalagi
ri
0.8
While Vijayawada offers excellent external connectivity with no significant power and water issues,
development of internal road infrastructure in the city has been slow. Only 50% of the proposed
allocation by VUDA (Vijayawada Urban Development Authority) has been spent on road widening and
improvement.
While intra-city infrastructure is good in Vijayawada the infrastructure within the city is yet to
keep pace as there are open sewages ; Road improvement has been slow in the last 3 years
22
13
35
14
Expenditure proposed
Gateway Hotels
Political will is lacking in the region to implement infrastructural projects the ambitious
Vijayawada-Kakinada Petroleum, Chemicals, Petrochemical, Investment Region (PCPIR) plan to
join the coastal district of Andhra Pradesh has not taken off as PSUs have backed out
70
APCII, Vijayawada
Actual expenditure
Source: Zonal Development Plan 2021- (VUDA), Discussion with industry participants
March 2014
27
Retail activity has increased with entry of marquee national brands and
emergence of malls
Upcoming malls
Mostly high street retail trade in
textiles, jewellery, cosmetics and consumer
goods concentrated around Bandar
Road
Brands: M&M, RS
Brothers, Kalaniketan, Twills, K-Lounge
Maanya
PVP Square
Area:
230,000 sq ft
Theatre:
Cinneapolis
Pre 2011
2013
2012
Trendset Mall
Area:
300,000 sq ft
Theatre : Asian
Films
2014 onwards
Ripples Mall
Area:
200,000 sq ft
Brands:
PVR, Van
Heusen, Allen
Solly
People in Vijayawada
today know fashion and are
becoming more aware of the
brands retail has seen
faster growth since 2008
M&M Retail
12.7
7.5
7.2
6.9
6.5
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.1
4.6
Guntur
353
1
6
Vijayawada
385
<100 beds
100-300 beds
1
>300 beds
March 2014
29
Hospital name
Bed size
Type
Aayush Hospital
200
Dr Ramesh Hospital
200
Cardiac hospital
Nagarjuna Hospital
200
Andhra Hospital
200
Corporate multi-specialty
hospital
Saumya Apollo
250
Corporate hospital
KIMS
150
Multi-specialty hospital
Other prominent hospitals with less than 100 beds include Sunrise, Rainbow,
City Neuro and Med-City Hospital.
Bed size
250+
150
150
March 2014
30
Quality Hotel
D V Manor
Hotel Raj
Towers
Krishna
Residency
Fortune
Murali Park
The Kay
Hotel
Hospitality chains
consider Vijayawada as
an attractive market
Segment
Keys
Greenpark Hotel
Upscale
N/A
Novotel
Luxury
240
Marriott
Luxury
N/A
KEES Hotel
Upscale
150
We have a lot of corporate travellers in the city - 5-6 years back there were only 2 flights, now we
have 9 and soon there will be 14 flights everyday which is going to increase traffic. Labor is not much
of a problem here as we are not too dependant on local labor
- Quality Hotel DV Manor
Out of 365 days, we are sold out for atleast 100 days which is a good sign that there is sufficient
demand in Vijayawada there will be a boom for existing hotels for the next 3-4 years till new
capacity is added
- The Gateway Hotel
There are certain challenges in increasing average room rates as mostly mid-level executives come to
Vijayawada who have a lower entitlement for corporate stays. Additionally, while the outside
infrastructure is very good there is still need for improvement in the road and sewage infrastructure
inside the city. However these are short-term challenges which can be addressed
- Fortune Murali Park
March 2014
31
96
51,899
Hyderabad
1,445
1,200
FY 11
115
53,246
45,900
64,354
FY 12
Vizag
Vijayawada
3,136
FY 13
Others
March 2014
32
MBA
MCA
Undergraduate
Number of
colleges
Seats
Number of
colleges
Seats
Number of
colleges
Seats
Number of
colleges
Seats
Krishna
37
13,170
41
2,730
32
2,200
103
24,774
Guntur
46
15,690
47
3,060
46
3,020
114
27,420
Prominent
Universities in
VGTM area
Prominent
medical
colleges
March 2014
33
Section 2.4
Attractiveness of the proposed location
March 2014
34
Domestic Airport
30 kms
Legend:
Railway Station
Tenali
LEPL Projects Limited Feasibility Study
PwC
The project also addresses many of the issues faced by businesses while
contemplating an entry into Vijayawada
Enabler
Social
Infrastructure
Human
capital
Physical
Infrastructure
@
#
$
Availability of
land
March 2014
36
Section 2.5
Micro-market assessment for project
components
March 2014
37
Developer-led model
Operator-led model
Salient
features
Rewards
Risks
Land-owner is exposed to
higher capital and operational
risk related to
construction, development and
management of the property
Level of control
Low
High
Resources (cost, time and effort) committed
LEPL Projects Limited Feasibility Study
PwC
March 2014
38
Source: PwC Research & Analysis
Key recommendations
! Residential
@ Office
# IT Park
$ Retail
324.45
75.4
19
4.1
155.43 acres
14.5 mn sft
2.8 mn sft
0.6 mn sft
Minimal
High
Medium
Minimal
Estimated workforce
demand required for the
site across various
sectors is lower than the
quantum required for the
site, potentially resulting
in significant
unabsorbed supply
Sufficient demand is
expected for residential
housing due to growth
in existing population,
influx of workforce and
lack of significant
residential supply in the
region
March 2014
39
^ Commercial and
& Hospital
* Golf course
entertainment
Total area allocated
(in acres)
19
10.43
17.48
45.93
Saleable area
n/a
3.4 mn sft
1.75 mn sft
n/a
Feasibility demand
over next 5 years
Unabsorbed supply
anticipated
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Key recommendations
An IB school is an
The project is estimated to have
attractive option and
sufficient demand from the local
enrolments of up to 750
catchment for setting up a 2
students can be achieved
screen multiplex in the
by targeting even 10% of
entertainment complex
the local catchment
By targeting a 3-4% market
Another suitable option
share, there is scope for setting
that can be explored is
up a 100-120 room hotel in the
setting up of a professional township as a first phase
course college with an
There is opportunity to add
average student enrolment another 100-120 rooms as part
of 500-600 in first phase,
of second phase of expansion,
gradually growing to 1000
once the first phase has
students over subsequent
stabilised
phases of expansion
March 2014
40
Residential
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
1
Influx of people
in the region
Demand drivers
Estimated population
driving demand for
housing for next 5 years*
c.156,600
Total skilled workforce
requirement in 5 years
(FY15-20) in VGTM region
> 1 lakh
housing units in the
VGTM region between
2014-2020
2
Growth in
existing
population
362,000+
Incremental growth in
population in 5 years
(FY15-20) in VGTM region
March 2014
41
Residential
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
! There are few large residential projects that have been announced in the
region; hence we expect robust offtake for LEPLs planned 5900 housing
units
Supply scenario
There are very few large residential projects (>300-500
units) that are ongoing/have been announced in the region
- Lotus Real Estate Group is marketing a township with
1600+ housing units (total project area of 110 acres)
- A 300-400 unit housing project has been announced
near Lanco township
- Arihant Housing has an ongoing 290 unit housing
project in the region
Once demand picks pace, we expect more residential
projects to be planned and announced; however these are
also likely to be smaller in size (compared to the LEPL
project)
Large tracts are land not available easily in the
region, hence most of the new residential projects are
smaller in size 40-50 acres or so
- Builders Association, Vijaywada
March 2014
42
Residential
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
14%
Bhopal
200
Bhubaneshwar
Ahmedabad
12%
12%
Nagpur
10%
8%
Patna
150
Jaipur
Hyderabad
100
50
Q1 2011
1%
-1%
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
March 2014
43
Residential
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
As a result, while other cities have historically grown at 8-14% levels, price escalation in the site
(VGTM belt) is likely is be 500-600 basis points higher than peer Tier 2 cities
25003500
FY14
30003500
FY15
36004000
43004560
51005250
60006200
70007500
43-64
CAGR of
15-20%
FY16
39-58
35-52
30-45
26.5-40
INR 000 per
sq yard
INR per sq ft
CAGR of
15-20%
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
23-34
20-30
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
March 2014
44
Office
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
@ The estimated demand for office space in the vicinity of the LELP project
site is expected to be 3.9-4.9 mn sq ft till 2020...
Demand for office space
Sector
Growth in
employment
(for sector) in
VGTM (FY 1520)
Estimated
requirement
for new office
space (mn sq
ft)
Estimated
share of
project site
(%)
39,437
3.2 3.9
50%
37,450
3.0 3.7
50%
5,991
0.5 0.6
50%
Transportation,
logistics,
warehousing
Others
Domestic/small IT &
ITES Sector
~2300
1 1.6
0.2
Rationale
50%
10%
Potential demand of
3.9
4.9 mn sq ft at
project site between
2015-2020
March 2014
45
Office
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
@ We suggest that the planned allocation for non-IT office area be reduced
to 4-5 mn sq ft in the initial phase; room for adding office space in
subsequent phases once demand is more certain
Planned area for office space (as per
project master plan)
65-70% reduction in
office space allocation
14.4 mn sq ft
4-5 mn sq ft
The project can plan for expanding its office space once
demand is more certain in the region
March 2014
46
IT Park
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
SEZ (L&T
Hitech
City)
STPI
Other
commerc
ial IT
space
Total
Unoccupied
area in FY 14
(mn sft)
Upcoming
supply
(mn sft)
0.18
0.02
0.06
0.04
0.151
0.24
0.21
2.84
3.29
Excess supply of
1 1.1 mn q ft
2.22
0.21
0.24
Existing surplus
Total supply
As per primary discussions, on an average 25,000-35,000 sft gets added each year under this non-SEZ, non-STPI
commercial IT space in Vijayawada
Standard industry norm of a requirement of 96 sft of super built up IT space per person has been taken for
computation
At planned allocation of
2.94 mn sq ft of saleable
area, there is likelihood
of overall excess supply
of 1 1.1 mn sq ft
Hence the project could
either reduce its
allocation for the IT
Park to c. 1.8 mn sq
ft of saleable area or
anticipate some unsold
inventory in the initial
years
March 2014
47
Retail
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
% of
addressable
population
Target
population
for retail
Primary
catchment
100%
24,000
Secondary
catchment
50-60%
43-51,000
Tertiary
catchment
0.5-0.6%
14-17,000
Total
81-92,000
Retail
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
Expected monthly
rentals (INR per sq ft
per month)
Minimum monthly
revenue required per
sqft (INR)
Target monthly
revenues for
breakeven (in INR
mn)
Number of walk-ins
required daily
Other
retail
shops
248,000
372,000
30-40
40-50
120-130
130-135
25-35
45-55
5000-5100
Comments
Assuming a mix of 40:60, for
hyper/super market for food
(40%) and other retail shops
(60%)
Current rental in the non-CBD
regions (periphery) in Vijayawada
is INR 15-20; assuming a 100200% increase in rentals as
demand in the region picks up
Break even rentals have been
assumed to be 12-15%
March 2014
49
Future rental rates for commercial areas (office, retail, entertainment etc)
in the project township are dependent on changes in the political and
economic scenario in Vijayawada
INR per sq ft
per month
Office
Retail
Office
space
Retail
space
CBD
60-70
100-150
Patna
20-50
40-150
Non-CBD (within
city limits)
20-35
30-70
Jaipur
30-110
40-170
Peripheral regions
10-20
15-25
Surat
25-40
30-60
Coimbatore
city
35-60
45-80+
Coimbatore
(peripheral)
25-42
25-45
Chandigarh
30-120
50-180
Kochi
25-60
50-150
Vizag
12 60
16-78
Nagpur
30-80
40-130
Indore
25-65
50-120
Source: PwC research, discussions with real estate developers and agents
March 2014
50
Education
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
Salient
features
Demand
drivers
Large student
enrolment of 2500+
students
Offer a variety of
courses
Colleges general
courses
International school
Vijayawada-Guntur is the hub of education for the coastal region Aspirational value of international
attracting a large number of students from the region
quality education
Strong culture of providing quality education to children with
Large NRI base can be tapped
aspirations that they become engineers or doctors
Higher affordability and propensity of
people to invest in education
4
LEPL Projects Limited Feasibility Study
PwC
Source: PwC estimates, Discussions with industry participants
4 High 4 Medium
4 Low
March 2014
50
Education
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
An IB school can be an attractive proposition for the township given the size of catchment, aspirational value of
an international course and tendency of the people to invest in good quality education
Particulars
Population Comments
Local catchment
(radius 2-5 kms)
School going
population
35,000
~7,000
Target share
@8%
Students
targeted in local
catchment
Additional students
within 5-15 kms
Total enrolment
that can be
achieved
400-450
200-300
600-750
1. As per primary discussions, Lotus township is the only major residential complex in the vicinity with an expected 1600 units. Assuming an additional supply of 400 units by FY 2020,
resident population in the vicinity of 5kms has been taken at 8,000 with an average household of 4 persons.
March 2014
Source: PwC estimates, Educational Stats of AP 2010-11, Discussions with industry participants
51
Education
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
106,826
27-37,000
70-80000
Expected demand in FY 20
1.
2.
GER (Gross enrolment ratio) is the ratio of students enrolled in higher education to the population that is eligible for enrolment i.e. population in the age of 18-23
State averages have been used for estimating population in the age band of 18-23 and GER. All India enrolment in professional courses is 30% out of total enrolments, since enrolments in
these courses
are growing
at a higher
LEPL Projects
Limited
Feasibility
StudyCAGR of 30% as compared to general courses (6%), it is expected to form a share of 35% of total enrolments by FY 20.
March 2014
PwC
Source: PwC estimates, All India Survey on Higher Education (AISHE) 2012, CII (Blueprint for KGPG Belt)
52
Education
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
% Fees for IB schools ranges from INR 1-3 Lakh per student per annum;
fees for professional courses vary widely across various types of
programmes
Indicative
Fees in IB schools
12
INR lakh per student
3 10+
Engineering
0.8 2 L
Law
0.5 2 L+
MCA/MCS etc
0.5 1.5 L
Hotel Management
0.75 1.5 L
March 2014
53
Commercial &
entertainment
^ The project is likely to have sufficient demand from the local catchment
for setting up a 500-seater multiplex
Market opportunity for multiplex1 in the project
Estimated footfalls from movie-going population
in the catchment
Potential footfalls of
120 140,000
80-90,000 per
annum
Demand estimation
Commercial &
entertainment
^ Existing supply of hotels rooms in the region will be insufficient in 3.54.5 years if demand increases at a CAGR of 25-35% over next 5 years
Growth in demand for rooms at 25-35%
CAGR can lead to higher occupancy
levels for the existing and upcoming
hotel supply resulting in demand for
new hotels over next 3.5-4.5 years
1,300
1,307
1,223
1,137
1,100
1,080
Number of rooms
1,019
942
988
963
900
849
830
859
747
700
702
Current
supply
688
708
639
650
590
565
500
491
3
Years
3.8
Years
5.5
Years
If demand
If demand
increases at 40% increases at 30%
CAGR
CAGR
Current demand
6+
Years
If demand
increases at 20%
CAGR
If demand
increases at 15%
CAGR
300
FY 13
Supply
FY 14
FY 15
Demand@15% CAGR
FY 16
FY 17
Demand@20% CAGR
FY 18
FY 19
Demand@30% CAGR
FY 20
FY 21
Demand@40% CAGR
*For supply, only planned additions to room inventory till FY15 -16 have been taken into account, after which supply has been considered to be constant
March 2014
55
Commercial &
entertainment
^ The project can target a 4/5 star hotel at the site. The hotel can be planned
in a phased manner starting with 100-120 rooms, with option to add
another 100-120 rooms as demand picks up
Demand for Hospitality in VGTM region
Annual demand from hotel guests by 2020
(25-35% CAGR)
c. 60,000
220,000 +
# of guests
# of guests
Currently there are only a handful of 3 star and 3 star
plus hotels in the region; these hotels together
comprise over 700 rooms
Targeting 7-8% of the demand translates into overall opportunity for setting up a 200-240 room hotel. A phasewise strategy can be employed starting with 100-120 rooms in the initial phase and subsequently expanding to
200-240 rooms depending on growth in demand
LEPL Projects Limited Feasibility Study
PwC
56
Commercial &
entertainment
4800-5400
2500-3000
INR
INR
Taj Gateway
Source: Industry discussions, HVS report on Hotels in India, PwC research and analysis
March 2014
57
Healthcare
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
& While the region is well-covered in terms of general healthcare, there are
few large specialty hospitals in the region
353
9
Vijaywada
<100 beds
100-300 beds
Guntur
>300 beds
March 2014
57
Healthcare
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
& A super/multi specialty hospital of 250-300 beds can address this needgap and can be set up in the proposed area of 17.5 acres
While there is sufficient coverage for general healthcare in the region, there is a need-gap for specialty healthcare
which can be bridged by a multi-specialty or super-specialty corporate hospital
Most residents of Coastal Andhra currently go to Hyderabad or other
cities for specialized treatments. They can be targeted by exploring
various options
Multi-specialty hospital
Type
Bed size
Kamineni Hospital
Super
specialty
250+
Oncology
150
Andhra Hospital
Cardiac
150
March 2014
58
Healthcare
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
& ARPOB for speciality hospitals in Tier 2 cities typically ranges from INR
12 16000 currently; we expect the proposed hospital to match market
rates in the long term
Current ARPOB in Tier 2 cities (FY14)
12-16000
18 - 22000
INR/day
INR
We have taken a conservative estimate of growth of 58% (in line with inflationary trend) in ARPOB over the
next 5-6 years
Source: Industry discussions, Apollo annual report, PwC research and analysis
March 2014
60
Golf course
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
Over 50% of the golf courses are 18-hole courses, 40-45% are 9-hole
courses with just a few 27-hole courses
Membership models
Vast majority of golf courses operate on a membership only basis and
generally allow only the club members and their guests to play
- Memberships are typically on an annual subscription + usage charges
for most golf clubs
Corporate memberships have been rising for golf clubs with increase in
expat employees
The membership strength for a golf course typically ranges from ~1500
members for 27-hole golf course, 1000-1200 members for 18-hole
golf course and 300-500 members for 9-hole golf course.
Typically only 20%-30% of the members constitute active members.
Operating model
The design and development of the golf course is typically contracted to a
specialist agency. Once the golf course is ready and operational., the
maintenance and management is done in-house by the developer (a
dedicated team is hired for management and maintenance of golf course)
Other components such as pro-shop (for equipment & accessories) and
food & beverage units are typically outsourced
LEPL Projects Limited Feasibility Study
PwC
March 2014
59
Golf course
Section 2.5 Micro-market assessment for project components
1
Villa residents
2
Affluent
individuals in
Vijaywada
Corporate
memberships
(senior
management)
Demand drivers
Target population
The buyers of premium villas in the project township can be targeted for
golf club membership
Typically golf club memberships are not mandatory
In most cities, private golf club memberships are targeted at the top income
bracket; membership to such clubs are considered a status symbol and sign
of affluence
Excluding Mumbai and Delhi, for other Tier 1 cities affluent households
(income > INR 2 lakhs per month) accounts for 3% of the households. For
Hyderabad, this is 2%.
Assuming a similar distribution in Vijayawada, this translates to 12,500
households (2% of 6.3 mn HHs in Vijayawada and Guntur, as on 2020)
Corporate memberships of golf clubs (for senior management and expat
employees) can be another target segment for the gold club
Targeting the senior employees/top management of IT/ITeS companies
within the project township translates to a corporate target population of c.
350-400 potential members1
1. Taking 2% of overall employee base of 18500 IT/ITeS employee base within the
IT/ITeS park in the project township
~450
~12,500
350-400
March 2014
60
Section 2.6
Summary
March 2014
61
Land allocation
(acres)
Saleable area
(mn sq ft)
324.4
553,502 sq
yards
Residential
apartments
High end Villas
Office
Land
allocation
(acres)
324.4
Saleable area
(Sq ft)
553,502 sq
yards
10.33
10.33
148,733 sq
yard
148,733 sq
yard
Comment
72.4
14.5
22-251
4-5
IT Park
19
2.8
19
1.8
Retail
4.1
0.6
4.1
0.6
1. Initial phase
March 2014
62
Land allocation
(acres)
Saleable area
(mn sq ft)
Land allocation
(acres)
Saleable area
(Sq ft)
19
na
191
na
Commercial &
Entertainment
10.4
3.4
10.41
3.4
Hospital
17.5
1.75
17.5
1.75
Golf course
45.9
Na
45.9
Na
Education
complex
Total
512.7
1. Initial phase
462 - 465
Comment
63
Section 3
Other successful mixed use projects in India
March 2014
64
Pacific Developers
March 2014
65
March 2014
66
Appendix 1
Annexures
March 2014
67
Residential
Appendix 1 Annexures
Yearly
require
ment
Requirement
for 5 years
(FY 15-20)
FY 11
(in
millions)
Growth
rate
Incremental
population
(FY 15- FY 20)
Vijayawada
1.17
3.4%
0.24
2%
0.12
Construction
19,088
30%
5,727
28,633
Guntur
1.03
14,980
50%
7,490
37,450
2.2
Transportation,
Logistics,
Warehousing &
Packaging
Total (in
mn)
2,396
50%
1,198
5,991
5,140
90%
4,626
23,129
11,268
70%
7,887
39,437
Food processing
2,330
50%
1,165
5,825
5,000
50%
2,500
12,500
2,427
30%
728
3,640
31,321
156,604
Banking &
Financial Services
Insurance
Total
62,629
0.36
Note 1 We have adjusted the share of skilled workforce requirement in the VGTM region on the basis
of suitability and potential of the sector in the Vijayawada-Guntur belt. Hence, services such as
IT, banking, hospitality, transportation, food processing and automotive are expected to have a higher
share of the demand in the VGTM region.
Source: Zonal Development Plan 2021, VUDA
March 2014
68
Retail
Appendix 1 Annexures
Description
Number of residents in
township
Secondary catchment
Floating population of
workforce, students and
visitors in the township
Tertiary catchment
Population
26,550
55,000
2,823,201
Comments
As per the number of units planned in
the township
Comprising of expected IT and office
workforce by FY 20 and students
Population of Vijayawada and Guntur
has been grown at their historic growth
rates of 3.4% and 2%, respectively to
arrive at population in FY 20.
March 2014
69