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Training
Instructors
Walt Lipke
Kym Henderson
waltlipke@cox.net
(405) 364-1594
Education Director
PMI Sydney, Australia Chapter
kym.henderson@froggy.com.au
61 414 428 537
17th IIPMC
Nov 7-9, 2005
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Lipke & Henderson
Concept Verification
17th IIPMC
Nov 7-9, 2005
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Prediction Comparisons
Demonstration of ES Calculator
Analysis Tool Demonstration
Interpolation Error
17th IIPMC
Nov 7-9, 2005
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Re-Baseline Effects
Critical Path Study
Network Schedule Analysis
Impediments / Constraints
Rework
Schedule Adherence
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Nov 7-9, 2005
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Available Resources
Wrap-Up
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BCWP
SPI =
BCWP
BCWS
ACWP
BCWS
CV
SV
ACWP
BCWP
Time
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SV = BCWP BCWS
SPI = BCWP / BCWS
Regardless of lateness !!
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Introduction to
Earned Schedule
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BCWP
BCWS
ES
AT
SV(t) = ES AT
SPI(t) =
BCWS
Projection of BCWP
onto BCWS
$
BCWP
ES = All of May + Portion of June
BCWP($) - BCWS(May)
ES = 5 +
BCWS(June) - BCWS(May)
AT = 7
Time
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Required measures
Performance Management Baseline (PMB)
the time phased planned values (BCWS) from
project start to completion
Earned Value (BCWP) the planned value
which has been earned
Actual Time (AT) - the actual time duration
from the project beginning to the time at
which project status is assessed
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EScum is the:
Number of completed BCWS time increments BCWP exceeds + the
fraction of the incomplete BCWS increment
EScum = C + I where:
C = number of time increments for BCWP BCWS
I = (BCWP BCWSC) / (BCWSC+1 BCWSC)
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SV Comparison
100
80
0.8
60
0.6
40
0.4
20
0.2
SV($)
Mo
SV(t)
-200
Mo
-2
-300
-400
-3
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SPI Comparison
1.12
SPI($)
0.98
J
SPI(t)
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
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TSPI Value
1.00
> 1.10
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Predicted Outcome
Achievable
Not Achievable
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IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t)
IEAC(t) = AT + (PD ES) / PF(t)
where PF(t) is the Performance Factor (time)
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Future
Work
SV
SV(t)
SPI
SPI(t)
Prediction
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Estimate at Completion
(EAC) (supplier)
Independent EAC
(IEAC) (customer)
To Complete Performance
Index (TCPI)
To Complete Schedule
Performance Index (TSPI)
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21
EScum
ES = C + I number of complete
periods (C) plus an incomplete
portion (I)
Actual Time
ATcum
Schedule Variance
SV(t)
SV(t) = ES - AT
Schedule Performance
Index
SPI(t)
SPI(t) = ES / AT
To Complete Schedule
TSPI(t)
Metrics
Indicators
Performance Index
Predictors
Independent Estimate
at Completion (time)
17th IIPMC
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IEAC(t)
IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t)
IEAC(t) = AT + (PD ES) / PF
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Concept Verification
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SV (t) cum
20
-20
D ollars (,000)
SV cum
-2
Stop
Stopwk
wk19
19
-40
Sched wk 20
-60
Re-startwk
wk26
26
Re-start
-4
-6
-80
-8
-100
-10
-120
-12
-140
-14
-160
-16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
W ee ks
CV cum
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Elapsed Weeks
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Conclusion
SV(t) provides greater management utility than SV($)
for portraying and analyzing schedule performance
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CV cum
SV ($) cum
SV (t) cum
5.0
Sched wk 25
Dollars ($,000)
45.0
35.0
Stop
Stopwk
wk16
16
25.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
15.0
1.0
W eeks
55.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-15.0
Re-start wk
wk 19
19
Re-start
-25.0
-1.0
-2.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Elapsed Weeks
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Prediction Comparisons
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Further Developments
in Earned Schedule
Schedule Duration Prediction
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Further Developments
in Earned Schedule
Schedule Duration Prediction
Pre
(continued)
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Theres got
to be a better
method!
32
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IEAC(t) PD/SPI(t)
40
35
Duration (Weeks)
30
25
Plan
Plan Dur
Dur wk
wk 20
20
20
15
Stop
Stop
wk wk
19 19
10
Re-startwk
wk26
26
Re-start
5
0
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
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25
Stop wk 19
Stop wk 19
Plan
PlanDur
Durwk
wk20
20
Compl
Apr
7
Compl Apr 7
Duration (Weeks)
20
28 Jul 90
14 Jul 90
30 Jun 90
16 Jun 90
02 Jun 90
19 May 90
15
Re-start
Re-start
wkwk
26 26
10
05 May 90
21 Apr 90
07 Apr 90
24 Mar 90
10 Mar 90
24 Feb 90
10 Feb 90
27 Jan 90
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
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There IS a
better
method!
36
2 My Experience Summarised
Schedule Performance Indicators (for early and late finish projects):
SPI(t) & SV(t) do portray the real schedule performance
in agreement with [1] [2]
[2] Henderson Kym, Earned Schedule: A Breakthrough Extension to Earned Value Theory? A
Retrospective Analysis of Real Project Data,The Measurable News, Summer 2003
[3] Henderson, Kym, Further Development in Earned Schedule,The Measurable News, Spring 2004
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Rev.2
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6
& Henderson
Lipke
Stephan
37
Vandevoorde
Demonstration of Earned
Schedule Calculator
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Earned Schedule
Calculator
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Earned Schedule
Analysis
Tool
Calculator
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Interpolation Error
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Interpolation Error
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Interpolation Error
BCWSC+1
I /1 mo = p / q
I = (p / q) 1 mo
ES(calc)
BCWP
q
p
$$
BCWSC
I
p = BCWP BCWSC
q = BCWSC+1 BCWSC
1 mo
ES
May
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June
Time
I=
July
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BCWP BCWSC
BCWSC+1 BCWSC
1mo
44
Interpolation Error
BCWSC+1
BCWP
ES(calc)
$$
BCWSC
% error =
F
I
May
||
C+F
(C)
ES
June
Time
error
(C + 1)
July
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Interpolation Error
Interpolation
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error is negligible
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ES and Re-Baselining
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ES and Re-Baselining
See examples
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40.00
35.00
Duration (Weeks)
30.00
25.00
3. Re-baseline effect
20.00
15.00
10.00
2. Schedule
delay
5.00
0.00
01 Jan 29 Jan 26 Feb 26 Mar 30 Apr 28 May 25 Jun 02 Jul
Actual Time (weeks)
0.00
4.00
8.00
12.00
17.00
21.00
25.00
26.00
30.00
34.00
0.00
4.00
8.00
12.00
17.00
21.00
25.00
26.00
30.00
33.00
0.00
4.00
8.00
12.00
17.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
0.00
3.84
8.60
12.56
16.87
17.45
17.59
25.91
28.70
33.00
20.85
18.60
19.11
20.15
24.07
28.42
33.12
34.50
34.00
IEAC(t) SPI(t)
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40
1.00
20
0.00
-1.00
-20
-2.00
-40
-3.00
-60
-4.00
4. Sawtooth effect of
-5.00
re-baselining
(CV,
SV($) and
SV(t)
-6.00
-80
-100
-120
-140
2. Cost Overrun
-7.00
3. Schedule delay
01 Jan 29 Jan 26 Feb 26 Mar 30 Apr 28 May 25 Jun
8.00
12.00
17.00
21.00
25.00
02 Jul
30 Jul 27 Aug
26.00
30.00
34.00
0.00
CV cum
0.00
6.96
11.09
(2.30)
SV($) cum
0.00
(0.41)
6.65
6.73
(1.42)
(8.60)
(5.22)
0.00
Target CV and SV
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
SV(t) cum
0.00
(0.16)
0.60
0.56
(0.13)
(3.55)
(7.41)
(0.09)
(1.30)
(1.00)
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4.00
5. 1 week completion
delay on re-baselined
PMB
Weeks
Dollars ,000
(22.07) (46.48)
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-8.00
52
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Essential
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To further compound
schedule complexity
Once
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Wouldnt it be nice .
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Mixture of:
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Resource
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Schedule Management
Weekly
Accurate
Schedule
Schedule
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Schedule Analysis
Initial expectation
In fact
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Work
Two
Corrective
Resulted
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ES IECD
Cannot
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Further Observations
Much
Any
SPI(t)
Especially
to 1.0
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Questions of Scale
We
Issues
Detailed
The
Earned
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Final Thoughts
ES
Unavoidable
The
ES
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Earned Schedule
Bridges EVM to Real Schedule
BAC
$$
PV
EV
SV(t)
ES
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Time
AT
PD
73
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Schedule Adherence
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Schedule Adherence
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Schedule Adherence
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Schedule Adherence
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Schedule Adherence
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Discussion of EV Research
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Total EV
EV(r) is performed at risk of creating rework
Portion colored is usable
Portion colored is unusable
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EV(r)
82
Effective EV Relationships
EVj = P EV
EV(p) = EVj = P EV
EV(r) = EV EV(p) = EV P EV
EV(r) = (1 P) EV
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Effective EV Relationships
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CPI
Index Value
1.1
1.0
CPI(e)
0.9
P Factor
0.8
0.7
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Percent Complete
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Index Value
1.1
CPI
CPI(e)
SPI(t)
SPI(te)
P- Factor
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Percent Complete
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Summary:
Effective Earned Value
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Available Resources
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Publications
1. Schedule is Different, The Measurable News, March & Summer
2003 [Walt Lipke]
2. Earned Schedule: A Breakthrough Extension to Earned Value
Theory? A Retrospective Analysis of Real Project Data, The
Measurable News, Summer 2003 [Kym Henderson]
3. Further Developments in Earned Schedule, The Measurable News,
Spring 2004 [Kym Henderson]
4. Connecting Earned Value to the Schedule, The Measurable News,
Winter 2004 [Walt Lipke]
5. Earned Schedule in Action, The Measurable News, Spring 2005
[Kym Henderson]
6. Not Your Fathers Earned Value, Projects A Work, February 2005
[Ray Stratton]
http://sydney.pmichapters-australia.org.au/
Click Education, then Presentations and Papers for .pdf copies
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Presentations
1. Earned Schedule An Emerging Practice, 16th IIPM Conference,
November 2004 [Walt Lipke, Kym Henderson]
2. Schedule Analysis and Predictive Techniques Using Earned
Schedule, 16th IIPM Conference, November 2004 [Walt Lipke, Kym
Henderson, Eleanor Haupt]
3. Earned Schedule an Extension to EVM Theory, EVA-10 Conference
(London), May 2005 [Walt Lipke, Kym Henderson]
4. Forecasting Project Schedule Completion by Using Earned Value
Metrics, EVM Training at Ghent University (Belgium), January 2005
[Stephan Vandevoorde]
http://sydney.pmichapters-australia.org.au/
Click Education, then Presentations and Papers for .pdf copies
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Presentations
5.
6.
http://sydney.pmichapters-australia.org.au/
Click Education, then Presentations and Papers for .pdf copies
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Contact Information
Walt Lipke
waltlipke@cox.net
Kym Henderson
Email
kym.henderson@froggy.com.au
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Wrap-Up
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Summary
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Summary
Leads to improved
Schedule & Cost Forecasting
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Conclusion
Earned Schedule
A powerful new dimension to Integrated
Project Performance Management (IPPM)
A breakthrough in theory and application
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Appendix
ES Calculation Exercise
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ES Exercise - Worksheet
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
BSWS($)
105
200
515
845
1175
1475
1805
2135
2435
2665
2760
2823
BCWP($)
115
220
530
870
1215
1525
1860
2190
2500
2740
2823
------
SV($)
10
20
15
25
40
50
55
55
65
75
63
------
SPI($)
1.095
1.100
1.029
1.030
1.034
1.034
1.030
1.026
1.027
1.028
1.023
------
10
11
12
Month Count
ES(cum)
SV(t)
SPI(t)
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ES Exercise - Worksheet
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Year 01
Jun
Jul
BSWS($)
105
200
515
845
1175
1475
1805
2135
2435
2665
2760
2823
------
------
------
BCWP($)
95
180
470
770
1065
1315
1610
1900
2150
2275
2425
2555
2695
2770
2823
SV($)
-10
-20
-45
-75
-110
-160
-195
-235
-285
-390
-335
-268
-128
-53
SPI($)
0.905
0.900
0.913
0.911
0.906
0.892
0.892
0.890
0.883
0.854
0.879
0.905
0.955
0.981
1.000
10
11
12
13
14
15
Month Count
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Year 02
Feb
Mar
ES(cum)
SV(t)
SPI(t)
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ES Exercise - Answers
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
BSWS($)
105
200
515
845
1175
1475
1805
2135
2435
2665
2760
2823
BCWP($)
115
220
530
870
1215
1525
1860
2190
2500
2740
2823
------
SV($)
10
20
15
25
40
50
55
55
65
75
63
------
SPI($)
1.095
1.100
1.029
1.030
1.034
1.034
1.030
1.026
1.027
1.028
1.023
------
10
11
12
ES(mo)
1.105
2.063
3.045
4.076
5.133
6.152
7.167
8.183
9.283
10.789
12.000
------
SV(t)
0.105
0.063
0.045
0.076
0.133
0.152
0.167
0.183
0.283
0.789
1.000
------
SPI(t)
1.105
1.032
1.015
1.019
1.027
1.025
1.024
1.023
1.031
1.079
1.091
------
Month Count
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ES Exercise - Answers
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Year 01
Jun
Jul
BSWS($)
105
200
515
845
1175
1475
1805
2135
2435
2665
2760
2823
------
------
------
BCWP($)
95
180
470
770
1065
1315
1610
1900
2150
2275
2425
2555
2695
2770
2823
SV($)
-10
-20
-45
-75
-110
-160
-195
-235
-285
-390
-335
-268
-128
-53
SPI($)
0.905
0.900
0.913
0.911
0.906
0.892
0.892
0.890
0.883
0.854
0.879
0.905
0.955
0.981
1.000
10
11
12
13
14
15
ES(mo)
0.905
1.789
2.857
3.772
4.667
5.547
6.409
7.288
8.050
8.467
8.967
9.522
SV(t)
-0.095
-0.211
-0.143
-0.228
-0.333
-0.533
-0.591
-0.712
-0.950
-1.533
-2.033
-2.478
-2.684
-2.841
-3.000
SPI(t)
0.905
0.894
0.952
0.943
0.933
0.911
0.916
0.911
0.894
0.847
0.815
0.794
0.794
0.797
0.800
Month Count
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Year 02
Feb
Mar
Copyright 2005
Lipke & Henderson
104